"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Selasa (05/11/2024) dengan Tema Bursa AS Turun Jelang Pilpres AS Pekan ini."
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00:00Thank you for joining us.
00:02Now we will talk about the economy.
00:04From Asia, there is PDB Indonesia,
00:06year-on-year, in the third quarter.
00:08Then from Singapore, there is retail sales,
00:10year-on-year, in the month of September.
00:12And the PMI Purchasing Index,
00:14Chaixin China, in October.
00:16And also in Korea, there is South Korea,
00:18month-on-month, in October.
00:20And there is the PMI Purchasing Index,
00:22Hong Kong Manufacturer, in October.
00:24And also in Indonesia,
00:26there is the PMI Purchasing Index,
00:28Hong Kong Manufacturer, in October.
00:30And also from the Philippines, there is IHK Philippines,
00:32year-on-year, in October.
00:34Meanwhile, from the United States,
00:36there is data on the trading cycle, in the month of September.
00:38Then the non-manufacturing business activity,
00:40IASM, in October.
00:42Then from Europe, there is Pidato Governor,
00:44ECB, Christian Lagarde.
00:46And we will watch
00:48an update on the opening of Asia this morning,
00:50as you can see
00:52on the television screen.
00:54For example, for the major Asian exchanges,
00:56Bukamix this morning,
00:58with Nikkei, opened 1.05%,
01:00at level 38,453.
01:02STI Singapore,
01:04weakened 0.28%, at level 3,562.
01:06KOSPI Korea,
01:08weakened 0.78%,
01:10at level 2,568.
01:12Then Hang Seng Hong Kong, opened,
01:14weakened 0.12%.
01:26For this morning's discussion,
01:28starting from the video conference,
01:30there is Mrs. Rita Effendy,
01:32Investment Consultant and Founder
01:34of Indonesia Investment Education.
01:36Good morning, Mrs. Rita.
01:38Good morning, Sir.
01:40Good morning. Thank you for joining us
01:42in Market Plus this time.
01:44We are talking about the focus
01:46that will be done by global investors,
01:48and whether this will also become
01:50the focus of domestic investors,
01:52of course, related to the U.S. election,
01:54who will elect a new president,
01:56either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris,
01:58which will be held in Harislasa,
02:00at the same time.
02:02And also, this will then
02:04trigger a
02:06psychological uncertainty
02:08in the global market.
02:10Wall Street itself
02:12weakened again. What is your analysis
02:14related to this, Mrs. Rita?
02:16It seems that the uncertainty
02:18of the U.S. voters
02:20is very dominant
02:22in the stock market movement
02:24in the last few weeks,
02:26from last week
02:28to this week.
02:30So, people still tend to wait and see
02:32because there are indeed some data
02:34that will be released this week,
02:36such as the PMI service
02:38on November 5th,
02:40which will be released later.
02:42Then, China's trade policy
02:44will also be released this week,
02:46because it is an important data,
02:48because China is an Indonesian trading partner.
02:50Meanwhile,
02:52for Indonesia, the GDP in the third quarter
02:54will also be released.
02:56This is a very important data,
02:58because it shows the growth of GDP
03:00in the third quarter of 2024.
03:02Then, the fourth one,
03:04this is what all global investors
03:06are waiting for,
03:08namely, the Fed Fundraising Policy.
03:10This week, the Fed will announce
03:12its monetary policy
03:14to regulate the flow of funds.
03:16How much will it be cut?
03:18This is the last thing I read
03:20last night,
03:22that the prediction for the cut
03:24of the flow of funds has reached 100%.
03:26So, it will probably be cut
03:28by 25 basis points
03:30to 4.75.
03:32So, the cut of the flow of funds
03:34will be a positive sentiment,
03:36especially for the Indonesian domestic market,
03:38because it will make our currency stronger
03:40and it will also make
03:42the flow back to Indonesia.
03:44And, of course,
03:46this is the American voters' sentiment.
03:48This is what all market players
03:50are waiting for,
03:52because this is quite balanced
03:54for Donald Trump
03:56and Kamala Harris.
03:58But, even though
04:00the stock market
04:02has given a higher bet
04:04for Donald Trump.
04:06So, this will also be
04:08a very important thing
04:10for Indonesia.
04:12Because if Donald Trump wins,
04:14it will be more difficult
04:16because he has a protectionist policy,
04:18that is, he promises
04:20to give a 20% tariff
04:22for all goods imported to America.
04:24Including goods from China?
04:26Yes.
04:28Including goods from Indonesia?
04:30Yes.
04:32He said this,
04:34all goods imported
04:36will be 20%,
04:38even though it is not specific
04:40to China.
04:42If we assume that
04:4420% of all goods imported
04:46to America,
04:48including goods exported to Indonesia
04:50as the purpose of export to America,
04:52is the second largest for Indonesia.
04:54So, it will also
04:56have a great impact,
04:58especially for the exporters
05:00who export to America.
05:02It will be a catalyst or a bad sentiment
05:04for the exporters who export there.
05:06Because if so,
05:08the tariff will be more expensive,
05:10the demand will definitely decrease.
05:12If so.
05:14Okay, related to the import tariff,
05:16it also seems to be done evenly,
05:18so there is no incentive
05:20for developing countries like Indonesia.
05:22So far, there is no further clarification,
05:24but that is what was said by
05:26Donald Trump's presidential candidate.
05:28But which one is more favorable,
05:30if we look at it later?
05:32Because if we look at it historically,
05:34when Donald Trump leads,
05:36there is no physical war,
05:38trade, protectionist policy, etc.
05:42But when Joe Biden leads,
05:44the war then takes place in the Middle East,
05:46and this actually
05:48has a significant impact
05:50on logistical costs,
05:52which also increases
05:54the price of goods sold.
05:56We will discuss
05:58in the next session,
06:00Mrs. Rita, and Mr. Trump,
06:02we will be right back.