Dale speaks to investigations correspondent Martyn McLaughlin as Donald Trump becomes the 47th President of the United States
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Scotsman's Daily Video Bulletin for this Wednesday.
00:05My name's Dale Miller, I'm Deputy Editor of the Scotsman, and I'm joined by our
00:09Investigations Correspondent, Martin McLaughlin.
00:12And Martin, we'll get into what is an historic day in some parts of America.
00:18It will be welcomed in other parts, it certainly won't, and it has
00:23ramifications for not just us here in the UK and Scotland as well as America,
00:28but potentially for the rest of the world as well.
00:30We will get into all of that, Donald Trump having effectively declared victory
00:36in the US presidential election this morning.
00:39The front page of the Scotsman firstly, obviously, we led not knowing the result
00:47yet, which has developed overnight, and Trump has made his speech to supporters
00:54in the minutes and hour after about 8 a.m. UK time today.
01:00But we also led on an education story as well, a plea from University Scotland
01:06over the fees funding Golf With England.
01:08Their concern is that fees are going up for English universities, which ultimately
01:13will mean some more of that funding ending up at those universities.
01:17Meanwhile, universities in Scotland struggling for money, having to consider
01:23staff and other cuts, and obviously with free tuition here, there are concerns
01:29that there may be a further tightening of the belt when the Scottish budget comes
01:33around in about a month and a half's time, or only a month now.
01:37So that is one to watch, and you can read that story at scotsman.com.
01:41Martin, we got you on to talk about the US election and all the fallout.
01:45Just quickly, you've written a bit about it already today, you can read all
01:48that at scotsman.com.
01:49What are the key takeaways for you?
01:52It seems at this stage, Dale, we're speaking just after half past 10 in the morning,
01:57but it seems like a formality that Donald Trump is going to perform one of the most
02:02astonishing political comebacks in modern American political history and become only
02:07the second president to serve a non-consecutive term since Grover Cleveland back
02:12in the 19th century.
02:14And we know in the days and weeks leading up to this election that the polls were
02:18close, it was too tight to call.
02:20But in the end, it seems to have been the case as it was four years ago and eight
02:24years ago, in that the polls underestimated the support for Mr.
02:28Trump.
02:30He's taken three key swing states so far, and he's on track to win several more.
02:35He's only a few votes away from getting the 270 electoral college votes he needs.
02:42And looking at the early data, obviously things are still being counted, but it
02:45seems like the Harris campaign really failed to capture the number of women voters
02:51that she was she was hoping to appeal to.
02:54And her campaign made a big deal of reproductive rights, for example.
02:58But it seems that she hasn't really made any great inroads compared to Joe Biden and
03:03Hillary Clinton in that respect.
03:05And, you know, the traditional divides that have characterized American politics over
03:10the past decade seem to have fallen away.
03:14We've seen Trump making big gains in urban areas that were traditionally Democrat
03:19strongholds, and even somewhere like New York, Trump is attracting significant amounts
03:25of votes. So in the aftermath of this election, there's going to be a postmortem that
03:30will be lengthy and detailed, and it's going to raise a lot of searching questions about
03:35the state of politics in a country that's more divided than ever.
03:39Martha, just on that female vote, it really fascinates me in that outcome, I think, and
03:45that the statistics may update.
03:47I think it was 57 percent female voters for Biden, about 54 for Harris or around about
03:53that mark anyway. It may be hard for some of us to fathom how Biden would have won a
03:59greater percentage of the female vote than Kamala Harris.
04:03Yeah, absolutely. I mean, this is all based on very early data.
04:06It's just a snapshot of voters.
04:08So it's in no way authoritative at the moment.
04:11But certainly that seems to be the case.
04:14And, you know, given Trump's stance on abortion compared to that of Harris, it doesn't
04:21seem to have moved the needle the way the Harris campaign thought it was going to.
04:26But even across these kind of fundamental big ticket issues that most elections are
04:31decided on, things like inflation, the economy, it doesn't really seem to have been the
04:36motivating factor in this race.
04:39When you see some of the exit poll data, it seems that most Americans are more motivated
04:44by fundamental issues of identity.
04:47So that polarisation of the states is not only entrenched by this election, it's been
04:52consolidated by.
04:54And it was interesting, again, that Make America Great Again, effectively, slogan was
04:59such a critical part or it was so closely linked to the Trump campaign.
05:05It will be interesting, you know, that identity issue, how much that played out
05:10effectively in the vote and the wash up of the analysis.
05:14Just back on the Harris campaign, do you think that she was introduced as the nominee
05:19too late? If Biden had stepped aside earlier, would that have helped her case, in your
05:25opinion? I think so, absolutely.
05:27It was only in July that she kind of emerged as the Democratic nominee.
05:32And, you know, four months is no time at all to set out your position and not only
05:38set out your position, but distance yourself from an administration which, it's fair to
05:43say, hasn't really made great inroads over the past few years.
05:48The Biden White House has done lots of good things, but I think that the consensus from
05:52voters is that things really aren't working as well as they should.
05:57So the Trump campaign, as any kind of savvy campaign would do, seized on that and kind
06:03of pointed to Harris as a continuity candidate.
06:06And I think when the dust settles, I think the Democrats will be looking at how they
06:11could have done things differently, had a more extensive primary and given the party
06:16more time to really reach out to voters.
06:19Martin, the fascinating backdrop of this year's with Trump on the brink of entering the
06:24White House is there's still ongoing court cases that he's linked to.
06:28I know you've written about that.
06:29That piece is up at Scotsman.com.
06:31You can read it now.
06:33Can you just talk me through the background of that?
06:35Because that really is an added complication moving forward.
06:39Yeah, absolutely.
06:41In so many ways, this is a historic election.
06:44But one of the most striking ways is the fact we now have a man who's a convicted felon
06:50with several outstanding criminal cases against him on the cusp of going back to the White
06:56House. The most pressing issue is Trump is due to be sentenced later this month in
07:03connection with the case where he was found guilty of falsifying business records.
07:09Whether that sentencing takes place is really up in the air.
07:12Earlier this year, there was a ruling by the Supreme Court which effectively granted
07:17presidents immunity from prosecution.
07:20Whether that applies to a president-elect is up in the air.
07:26But Trump could seize on his power if he kicks this into the long grass, as he has done
07:31with the sentencing deadlines over the past few months.
07:36Once he enters office, he has a range of options available to him, not just in connection
07:40with the sentencing, but the outstanding federal cases he's facing, which relate to
07:46documents found at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
07:50And his efforts to overturn the election in Georgia.
07:55Trump could theoretically pardon himself, which no other president has done in history.
08:01Or he could opt for an even more blunt route and just sack the Attorney General, appoint
08:06somebody more favourable to him and have them dismiss the case.
08:10The thing that counts in Trump's favour if he went down that path is it looks like the
08:14Republicans are going to hold the Senate.
08:16So all the kind of checks and balances against an immense presidential power look to be
08:23falling away. And, you know, Trump is able to do as he pleases.
08:27It remains to be seen if he goes down either of those routes.
08:30But certainly it's something that's causing a great deal of debate and indeed
08:36consternation amongst constitutional experts in the US.
08:40There's obviously, we touched on on the top of this bullet, I'm sorry, about the
08:45implications here at home in Scotland and more broadly, the UK.
08:49We ran a series on Trump and Scotland in the build up.
08:52You can find all those pieces under the World tab from our navigation bar, includes
08:56pieces from you, Mardin, about Trump's business interests here and a piece on how some
09:02golfing experts rate effectively the golf courses that are against the Trump name here
09:08from our golf correspondent, Mardin Dempster.
09:10But the special relationship, Mardin, I want to ask you, given what John Swinney has
09:15said before the election, given the relationship with Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour
09:21government, how do you think that's going to play out over the coming weeks and months?
09:26And do you actually think that we will see Trump again here soon for a visit as
09:30president? A good question, Dale.
09:34His Aberdeenshire course is due to have its second course open next summer.
09:41That course is being talked up by people up in Aberdeenshire as one of the best courses
09:45in Scotland and it's named after Trump's mother.
09:48So it's a big development in his UK business interests.
09:52And you would expect that the patriarch of the Trump organisation would be there to
09:57help promote it. Obviously, that would be a major security operation.
10:02But I wouldn't rule that out.
10:04In terms of Trump's relationship with the Scottish government, I don't anticipate it
10:09changing too much from the way he had dealings with Nicola Sturgeon during his first
10:15term in office. It's pretty clear there's no love lost on either side.
10:20The Trump organisation lost a legal case against the Scottish government regarding
10:25offshore wind turbines in Aberdeenshire.
10:28And I don't think John Swinney has any kind of great fondness for Mr.
10:32Trump, and that's certainly not reciprocated, I'm sure.
10:34So I don't anticipate that really changing too much.
10:39The bigger, more complicated question is that special relationship, like you say, between
10:44the US and the UK.
10:47Sir Keir Starmer, a human rights lawyer, it remains to be seen how he forms a
10:52relationship with the Trump administration.
10:54I think David Lammy has been a bit more cordial and open with Trump's
11:01campaign. So it's a relationship that is going to have to persist for various
11:07political and economic reasons.
11:09But certainly people here are asking, kind of searching questions about what it all
11:14means, especially around the likes of trade tariffs, which Trump has promised to
11:19impose. It's going to have an impact on the Labour government's ability
11:24to fulfil its agenda because the ripples of this election victory, as it
11:29looks likely, are going to be widespread.
11:35Martin, thank you very much for joining us.
11:37You can read all our coverage at Scotsman.com of Trump, and he's
11:44virtually on the verge of presidential election victory as we record
11:49this, including analysis.
11:52What it means for the court cases and how UK and Scottish political leaders have
11:57reacted here. Now, please follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram and go out and
12:02buy a copy of the paper tomorrow where you'll have a comprehensive wrap of all the
12:06fallout from Trump's win in the US.
12:09Thank you to you, Martin. Thanks, everyone, for joining us.