On the repercussions in the United States of Trump's victory in the recent presidential election, teleSUR spoke with Benjamin Norton, journalist and editor of geopolitical economy. teleSUR
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00:00Welcome back.
00:10We continue with the analysis following Donald Trump's electoral victory on Tuesday.
00:13We are joined by journalist Benjamin Norton.
00:16Benjamin, welcome to From the South.
00:19Thanks for having me.
00:20It's always our pleasure.
00:21So we saw yesterday Donald Trump win not only in electoral votes, but also in popular votes
00:26for the first time.
00:28Winning also among Hispanic, Afro-American, and women voters.
00:31How can we explain this?
00:33Well, a few things.
00:35First of all, the situation in the economy has been very difficult.
00:39If there's really one factor that led to Trump's victory, it's the economy.
00:45High rates of inflation, extremely high costs of housing and food.
00:50And if you look at polls, many people said that their number one issue was the economy.
00:56So we've seen, especially after the pandemic, there were very high rates of inflation, and
01:01this has really hurt a lot of working people.
01:05There's also a lot of growing inequality.
01:07Now it's quite ironic because Donald Trump is a billionaire, and he has pledged to cut
01:12taxes on the rich, and he was funded by many billionaires.
01:16So I don't think Trump will actually have solutions to these problems.
01:19But the reality is that Kamala Harris is, of course, vice president under Joe Biden,
01:25and she's associated with many of the economic problems in the U.S.
01:29So she didn't really provide any solutions to people.
01:32She did not distinguish herself from Joe Biden.
01:36So people said, why would we continue voting for her when the situation economically is
01:41so bad, prices are high, inflation is high?
01:44That was the most important factor.
01:46But there are other things.
01:48Another reason is it looks like turnout was quite low, and one of the reasons that turnout
01:54for the Democrats was so low is because Kamala Harris was not a popular candidate.
01:59She did not really offer anything new or exciting.
02:02She basically said, I'm the continuation of Joe Biden, who's not popular.
02:08And we cannot forget the genocide going on in Gaza.
02:12Kamala Harris has, like Joe Biden, staunchly supported Israel, as it has supported this
02:18horrific massacre of Palestinians.
02:21And this is why it hasn't officially been announced yet, but it's almost certain that
02:26Donald Trump won Michigan.
02:28Michigan is an important swing state that has a large Arab population, and many Arab
02:33Americans said that they were not going to vote for Kamala Harris, despite the fact that
02:37they had previously voted for Joe Biden as a form of protest against her support for
02:42the genocide in Gaza.
02:44So the Democrats didn't offer people anything.
02:49Their campaign slogan was, we are not Donald Trump.
02:52They didn't say, we're going to give you health care, we're going to give you housing.
02:56Instead, they said, vote for us because Donald Trump is horrible.
03:02And the Democrats, Kamala Harris, were actually campaigning with many Republicans, including
03:08Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, who is a horrible right-wing
03:15war criminal.
03:16So when the Democrats don't offer anything that actually helps people, they lose.
03:21This is exactly what happened in 2016.
03:26Hillary Clinton did not offer anything to anyone.
03:31She did not claim that she would make the economy better for working people.
03:37And she ran a very centrist, center-right campaign with a bunch of Republicans.
03:43Her only slogan was, we're not Donald Trump, and she lost.
03:49So the Democrats learned nothing, and they repeated the same mistakes.
03:53With Trump's history of imposing tariffs, how might his administration's trade policies
04:10affect global markets and economies, particularly in relation to China and Mexico?
04:28It's going to be very hectic, and I think it's going to cause a lot of economic problems.
04:33So Donald Trump, let's not forget, began the trade war on China in his first term from
04:392017 to 2021.
04:42And honestly, the Biden administration continued many of the policies of economic war against
04:49China.
04:50However, the Biden administration's tariffs against China were specific.
04:55They were targeted tariffs against Chinese electric vehicles, China's solar panels,
05:02China's batteries.
05:04So they were specific targeted tariffs.
05:07Trump has pledged that he's going to put blanket tariffs of 60% on all Chinese exports.
05:14This is going to cause a lot of problems, considering that about 10% of China's exports
05:19go to the United States.
05:21Now China could redirect those exports to another country, like Mexico or like Vietnam.
05:28And then what happens is that in Mexico or Vietnam, they could add some kind of value
05:33to the production process and then export it to the U.S. and say that the good was made
05:38in Mexico or made in Vietnam.
05:40So that's a potential way around these tariffs on Chinese goods.
05:44However, what that also means is that the cost of those products is going to increase,
05:50which is likely going to lead to more inflation in the U.S.
05:53So I think we're entering a period where there's going to be more inflation.
05:56Now in terms of Mexico, it could actually ironically help Mexico.
06:01It depends what the Trump administration does.
06:04If they do not put further tariffs on Chinese goods made in Mexico by a Chinese company
06:11and then export it to the U.S., that could help Mexico.
06:15However, if Trump puts tariffs on Chinese goods that are made in Mexico and exported
06:20to the U.S., it's going to cause damage to both China and to Mexico, and it will cause
06:25damage to the U.S. because it will lead to higher prices for consumers in the U.S.
06:31So this policy that Trump has proposed I think could really backfire and do damage
06:37to the U.S., but it's part of this strategy of economic war against China, which the U.S.
06:42sees as its main adversary.
06:44One of the promises Trump has made was that he could end the conflict between Russia and
06:50Ukraine.
06:51I think he once said he could do so in less than 24 hours.
06:54What can we expect going forward in this regard?
06:58Well, Trump likes to brag and he exaggerates, and sometimes he says things like he'll do
07:03it in 24 hours.
07:05I don't think it's going to happen in 24 hours.
07:08However, Trump has expressed interest in this.
07:11This means that maybe the U.S. will be willing to negotiate.
07:14However, if the U.S. continues to send weapons to Ukraine, which is what Trump did in his
07:20first term, he sent weapons to Ukraine, then obviously that's not going to end the war.
07:29He's serious about ending the war.
07:31Russia has made many proposals for peace.
07:34This goes back to March of 2022, when Russia joined peace talks in Turkey, Turkey, and
07:43also in Belarus.
07:45So Russia has expressed interest, but Russia has a few demands that are non-negotiable.
07:52First of all, Ukraine must be neutral.
07:54It cannot join NATO.
07:57Ukraine must be demilitarized, and there must be some kind of agreement reached that will
08:03not allow Ukraine in the future to be re-militarized and to join NATO.
08:08So that if they sign an agreement and then there's a change of government, and then the
08:12Democrats come in, they just completely change the plan.
08:15This is what happened with the Iran nuclear deal.
08:18Iran signed a nuclear deal with the Obama administration, and then Trump came in and
08:22he tore up the deal.
08:23So Russia wants to make sure that there's some kind of agreement.
08:26It won't change if a Democrat comes in in a few years and tears it up.
08:30It's very difficult to negotiate with the U.S.
08:33So I think Russia is willing to do so.
08:36Maybe Trump will, but Trump often says a lot of things and doesn't actually accomplish
08:40them.
08:41So we'll see what actually happens.
08:42And also, of course, inside NATO, the U.S. is the leader of NATO, but there are other
08:47countries in NATO in Europe, and many of them do not want peace with Russia.
08:53So I think inside NATO there will be some conflicts between Trump and some of the European
08:59countries.
09:00We'll see what happens.
09:02It's going to be, I think, pretty difficult.
09:03But if there is some kind of end to the conflict, some people expect that it could look like
09:10the end to the Korean War.
09:13So the Korean War was waged between 1950 and 1953.
09:17However, the war ended, but there was never a peace deal signed.
09:20There was never a formal treaty.
09:22So if the war in Ukraine ends, perhaps it'll be like the Korean option, where the war ends,
09:29but there's not a formal treaty that ends the conflict.
09:32Another topic that has been on top of the agenda of the different discussions, aside
09:36from immigrations, the conflicts in the Middle East and in Ukraine, has been climate.
09:41What impact do you expect Trump's policies to have on international climate agreements
09:45and global efforts to combat climate change, taking into consideration his first term?
09:51This is going to be one of the biggest impacts of the second Trump administration.
09:55In terms of foreign policy, Trump and Biden honestly have not been that different.
10:01Biden continued staunch support for Israel and its genocide in Gaza.
10:05Biden continued putting sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela.
10:10Biden continued this very aggressive policy against China.
10:15However, one area where there's going to be a very big difference is on the climate.
10:19Now, Biden actually offered many new contracts for oil and gas companies in the U.S.
10:25So even though he says that he wants to fight climate change, Biden has been pretty hypocritical.
10:30However, Trump is much, much worse.
10:33Trump does not accept that climate change is happening.
10:37Trump wants to massively expand oil production in the U.S., which is going to be very bad
10:42for the climate.
10:43Trump doesn't care about renewable energy technology.
10:46So I think this is going to do a lot of damage to the climate because, of course, the U.S.
10:50is per capita the world's largest carbon emitter in terms of the size of its population, and
10:56historically it has been the world's largest carbon emitter.
11:00So that means that the U.S. is likely going to do a lot of damage to the climate, and
11:05this is going to hurt other countries, especially countries like in the tropics, countries that
11:10are island nations that are already dealing with hurricanes and extreme weather.
11:15So I think this is going to be something that's going to do a lot of damage.
11:18And it's going to show, actually, how a country like China is a more responsible global leader,
11:26because China has been taking up, on the global stage, taking up the leadership role
11:32in fighting climate change.
11:34China has been transitioning very quickly to solar panels, to wind turbines.
11:39It's been moving toward other forms of renewable technology and electric vehicles.
11:44It's building a lot of nuclear plants which don't emit carbon.
11:48So China is actually going to be seen on the global stage as a country that takes climate
11:52change very seriously and is fighting climate change and promoting sustainable development.
11:58And the U.S. is going to be seen as a pariah that is violating all of these policies like
12:03the Paris Agreement.
12:05And let's not forget that Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement.
12:09So that's an example of how the U.S. is going to be seen as a very irresponsible country.
12:15Thank you, Benjamin, for your time and your inputs here in From the South.
12:20My pleasure.
12:21Thanks for having me.
12:22My pleasure.