The decision by the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to use American long-range missiles against Russia is unlikely to deter North Korea from continuing to aid Moscow, says Griffith University's Matthew Sussex. But it could have an impact on Russian soldiers positioned farther away from the frontline.
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00:00Officials from the Biden administration have told media that this decision is also sending
00:05a message to North Korea to not get further involved in Russia's war.
00:09Do you think that this could have any effect on Pyongyang's strategic thinking?
00:13I don't think it's going to change Pyongyang's course.
00:17It looks as though North Korea has made up its mind that it is going to be an Asian nuclear
00:23power taking part in European land wars.
00:27There are media reports that North Korea could provide up to 100,000 troops if necessary
00:33for a fight against Ukraine.
00:36And whereas I think this decision to allow Ukraine to strike with attackers of longer
00:41range might be partly aimed at the North Korean leadership saying, well, you know, you've
00:46become part of an escalation, we will follow suit.
00:49I think it probably has more implications for rear area Russian forces, which have been
00:54basically able to strike Ukraine with impunity.
00:58Ukraine has had the U.S. ATACMS in its arsenal for around a year, but is only now allowed
01:04to use them to their full capacity.
01:07What implications could this have for Taiwan, which has also just begun receiving the same
01:12missile systems from the U.S.?
01:14You'd hope that it doesn't come with the same caveat that Ukraine had on its use of those
01:21missiles, which is to limit it to about 80 miles.
01:24ATACMS can go for about 500 miles and from a Taiwanese perspective, I think it's quite
01:29important for Taiwan's deterrent capability to be able to potentially inflict harm, not
01:36just on Chinese landing craft as they come close to the Taiwanese shore, but also to
01:42be able to reach out as a deterrent to China's anti-access aerial area denial envelope.
01:49Do you think with this move by the U.S. that other European countries currently providing
01:55Ukraine with weaponry could follow suit?
01:57Well, look, I think the big potential sticking point here is Germany.
02:03Certainly the United Kingdom has been more than keen to persuade the United States to
02:09allow the use of ATACMS at range.
02:13It certainly said that it's storm shadow missiles, taking all the distance limitations off those.
02:20The German missile system that the Ukrainians really badly want is called Taurus.
02:24And so far, Olaf Scholz has decided that no, he isn't going to provide that to Ukraine.
02:29But with the German government coming into a new election soon, a vote of no confidence
02:34first, but then a new election, it might put some political pressure on Scholz, particularly
02:40since some of his potential rivals have said that they would get involved in providing
02:46or selling Taurus to Ukraine.
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