Four consecutive defeats across three different competitions isn't the end of the world for any team, but it's unheard of for Pep Guardiola and his Manchester City side. Bournemouth, Tottenham, Sporting Lisbon, and now Brighton have all overcome them (and deservedly so), meaning something, somewhere, is clearly wrong.
Adam Clery looks at how the side is set up to decide if it's just injuries, or if it's something more worrying.
Adam Clery looks at how the side is set up to decide if it's just injuries, or if it's something more worrying.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, Adam Cleary from 442 and Manchester City, can you believe it, are
00:10in crisis and we have had so many messages being like, can you please do a video about
00:16why Manchester City are in crisis, so here you go, that's the whole intro.
00:22Right, this is what Manchester City look like, in case you've forgotten and before we start,
00:28if I may be permitted to be annoyingly normal about this, they've lost two league games,
00:36that's it, just two games in which they haven't won a game of football, Arsenal are on a run
00:41twice as long as that, it's only one more game than Liverpool's blip against Nottingham
00:46Forest.
00:47In the grand scheme of things, this is not an issue at all, but the problem is, right,
00:53it's Manchester City and this never happens to Manchester City.
00:57Right now, having been normal, I'm going to get really internet about this, I think
01:00what has caused all the drama, what's made this such a story, is if you watch the game
01:05against Brighton, you could see this coming a mile off, they were excellent in the first
01:11half but the longer that game went on, the more you thought, Brighton are going to batter
01:16them here.
01:17I'm going to show you the momentum graph from this match, if you've never seen or used these
01:20before, they're like a combined measure of possession, passes, chances, it's basically
01:25who is doing what, and the higher the bar, the more dangerous that is in relation to
01:30the opposition's goal, and very similar to the catastrophic loss against Sporting, Man
01:35City dominate the really early phases of the game, they get a goal, they get ahead, but
01:39then they cannot press that advantage, the momentum slowly turns to the point where they
01:45are completely on the back foot and lose all control of the game.
01:48In fact, such a good handle did Brighton get on that game, I'm even going to use an XG
01:52graph, which I never use, because I can imagine how much that winds up people who don't use
01:57XG, right?
01:58From the start of the second half until Man City went behind, they created virtually no
02:04chances of notes whatsoever, like all their second half XG is from like a panicked flurry
02:11of trying to equalise, not in normal play.
02:14Now this was Manchester City starting 11 for that match, and it's up to you whether you
02:19think of this as a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-3-3, either way, it lost control.
02:24Now what worked for them in the first half was that Brighton were using kind of like
02:27a 4-4-2 and had Hinshelwood and Iari in the centre, and they could not live with City's
02:32three players.
02:33Mateo Kovacic, who was largely really good, would drop off and then play through them
02:37if they tried to press him, Phil Foden would drift out on the flanks, go looking for the
02:41ball and that would pull them around to try and chase after him, and Gundogan had a really
02:45good physical performance, but you'll forget how strong he is.
02:49He would be in between them, but any time they sort of tried to move on to him and get
02:52the ball, he'd just bounce them off.
02:55But all of this changed at the start of the second half when Brighton brought on, I'm
02:58going to pretend I'm changing the counter there, Carlos Boliba, who is fantastic.
03:05If you do not know, then get to know.
03:08He competed in and won more ground duels in this match than any other player, despite
03:15only playing the second half.
03:17He dominated Man City.
03:20He was so much better at resisting the press, which meant that all of a sudden Brighton
03:23could start to play through Foden and Gundogan when they couldn't in the first half.
03:27He was athletic enough that he could go chasing after Foden and not let him have things all
03:32his own way.
03:33He was strong enough that all of a sudden Gundogan wasn't able to dominate in the centre.
03:38So all of a sudden, after not being able to do it at all really in the first half, Brighton
03:41could suddenly play out, they could break down City's attacks, and he was even pressing
03:46all the way up to Kovacic to make it harder for them to get out of their own half.
03:51If you take the winning goal for example and you just back it up slightly, that is his
03:55pass through the very centre of Manchester City's midfield.
03:58But there are two other things in this goal that show you precisely the problems Manchester
04:03City keep finding themselves having as games are going on.
04:06First off, you look at this goal kick from Edison.
04:08He bypasses both Lewis and Kovacic here and tries to go straight into Foden with a really
04:14difficult ball to get under control, which he loses, and then Brighton are able to bully
04:19Man City into getting it back.
04:21Hmm, strange.
04:22Almost as if they are missing a key player in that area.
04:26Hmm, strange.
04:28And neither of the two goals were particularly surprised because there was loads of situations
04:31like this leading up to them.
04:33Like Brighton in this one win two 50-50s.
04:36They should probably score.
04:38And just quickly, just pause it here, just want you to take note of the defensive out
04:43of possession shape Manchester City are in right here.
04:47And that might look like a small thing, right, but that is Manchester City's in possession
04:52shape.
04:53That is the 3-2 that they try to move into when they've got the ball.
04:58And they're here trying to defend in it because while the ball has been turned over and Brighton
05:03have got possession back, they have not been able to successfully reorganize.
05:08And that smacks of a lack of leadership.
05:11But just to go back to Edison's passing for a second, right, this is his passing map from
05:15the first half of the game.
05:17And you will see that when Man City had control of that midfield and they didn't feel too
05:21threatened by Brighton, he is able to get the ball into the area he is supposed to get
05:26it into.
05:27Like a lot of it is sideways.
05:28Yes.
05:29But when you've got someone like Edison in goal and you are Man City, you want the ball
05:32to be sort of coming from him and landing about here.
05:35That is him starting a slow build-up attack.
05:38Goes along when he needs to because he's a very good goalkeeper, but his primary focus
05:42is doing all this.
05:43But then once Manchester City lost control of that midfield, this is his second half
05:49passing map.
05:50Now this one all the way out here, I'm not going to shock you, that is the 98th minute
05:53when Man City were throwing everything forward.
05:55But in the 40, let me do the maths, 53 minutes leading up to that in that half, he only
06:02successfully put the ball into the build-up area of the midfield once, maybe twice.
06:09Like even a few of these that look like they're vaguely in that sort of area, if you check
06:13the timestamps on them, they're 96 minutes, they're 92 minutes, they're 87 minutes.
06:17They're all after Manchester City went behind and Brighton dropped really, really deep.
06:21Like they could get nothing successfully building up from the back once they lost control of
06:26the midfield.
06:27Thanks to Belieber.
06:28And no, I know what you're thinking.
06:29Are you going to do one of those I'm a Belieber gags like Alan Shearer did on Match of the
06:34Day, Adam?
06:35Is that the level you're operating at?
06:36And no, no, I'm not.
06:39I want to, God, I want to, but I'm not going to.
06:42But yes, anyway, sorry.
06:43The image I'm trying to paint is that Manchester City lose control of these areas as the game
06:48goes on.
06:49And another way this manifests itself is in their press, again, focusing on Belieber.
06:54Like right here, they've actually set a really decent pressing trap, like Brighton give the
06:58ball to a midfielder who has nowhere to go.
07:01If it's back to Esther Pinion, that's not a great idea because De Bruyne is right behind
07:05him.
07:06If he goes back to the goalkeeper blind, he could just as easily play Harland in.
07:09And better yet, most importantly, they've got these two players about to jump on him.
07:14So he has to do something.
07:15But what he does, and it's entirely your own judgment whether you see this as being an
07:20amazing thing for Brighton or just a terrible thing for Man City, is he spins the pair of
07:25them like they're not even there and then bashes into Kovacic, knocks past him and drives
07:30the entire team and the entire game up the other end of the pitch.
07:34And that came mere seconds after City had set a pretty good pressing trap.
07:38So you get the idea, right?
07:39As these games have gone on, despite the fact Manchester City have started really well and
07:43still have unbelievable quality across the pitch, they eventually lose control of the
07:48midfield, which means it's really hard for them to build out from the back and it's really
07:51hard for them to get their press going.
07:53And thus they sit back and inevitably concede.
07:56Now, the reason that happened against Brighton was Carlos Boliva.
07:59He had an absolutely unbelievable match and if Brighton hadn't subbed him on set, he probably
08:03would have gone on and won that comfortably.
08:05But why is this happening in every game?
08:09Well, the very short answer is that teams now have the courage or the bravery or whatever
08:14to try and get at Man City in the transition, because that's where they're most vulnerable.
08:19Like Pep has been doing this for a couple of seasons.
08:21He used one, number six, usually Roger, but right now it's Kovacic.
08:25And then someone from the defence comes inside and sits in a 3-2.
08:29Now, John Stones was stepping up, but Kanji's done it before, Rico Lewis.
08:33But basically whoever it is, they end up in this shape.
08:35Now, the risk of this video getting very 2002, there's loads of reasons why Manchester City
08:39like doing it.
08:40One is it gives them a box midfield, so the outnumbered teams would have two or three
08:43in this area.
08:44It still allows them loads of width.
08:46They can stretch teams.
08:47The eights can then get in.
08:48They back up the press really well.
08:49They've got the back four quite nicely covered, yada, yada, et cetera, et cetera.
08:52But it's not the shape they want to defend in.
08:56When they lose the ball and the opposition are in the sort of position where they can
08:59launch a counter-attack, they want to be getting back into a back four.
09:04But the problem with that is it requires a lot of organisation and coordination.
09:09And literally the very first thing Brighton do after they've made the substitution at
09:13halftime is they turn the ball over, they work it out wide and they get into this sort
09:17of gap that forms behind Rico Lewis.
09:20Because you can imagine if you haven't got the timing quite right, this defender ends
09:24up tucking inside because he's supposed to be one of the central centre-backs.
09:27But if you're inverted midfielder hasn't got back across yet, that can leave a big gap.
09:32And Brighton got in there within a matter of seconds.
09:34Then just a couple of minutes later, the really big first chance they had, that is again targeting
09:40the back post.
09:41They get to the byline.
09:42They go wide.
09:43They run at Manchester City.
09:44They get the cross all the way over to that side.
09:46They get at Rico Lewis' area and two players have a more or less uncontested header.
09:51And again, what this all comes down to is a total lack of leadership and organisation
09:55from Manchester City at the back.
09:57So for the equaliser, they've dropped into a 4-4-2.
10:00You can see it here.
10:01It's the most solid, rigid, hard to break down shape in football.
10:06But you see, the thing about Hertsler, one of the main components of how he likes to
10:09play football is this idea of like abandoning the midfield when you work it into the final
10:15third.
10:16Like, it's sort of the exact opposite principle to 4-4-2, which is get small, get compact,
10:20get in the middle of the pitch, stop anybody playing through you.
10:23And it basically just says, well, we can't play through there, so why would anyone be
10:27there?
10:28And if we chuck a little grid over Brighton's attack at this stage, sort of relative to
10:33the 4-4-2, there isn't anybody there.
10:36Nobody's standing in the congested area because it's the congested area.
10:41And now not only is there not a single Brighton player in the middle of the pitch for the
10:45team to mark, they've now got a 5v4 across the back line.
10:50Just before we roll the rest of this, I have to say 5v4s aren't necessarily that uncommon.
10:56Manchester City manufacture them all the time.
10:59They're okay to defend, provided you organise.
11:02But the problem here is not only is there a 5v4 off the ball, there is zero pressure
11:07now on the ball.
11:09None of the Manchester City team want to go out there and stop something happening.
11:14And thus, inevitably, because of that overload, City get dragged onto the wrong players.
11:18They leave this enormous gap between Walker and Matoma.
11:22And I have seen Walker getting criticised for that.
11:24Like he should have gone over there originally, but they just wind that back to when the pass
11:28is made.
11:29That is, I can never remember how old he is, like a five-year-old centre-back in front
11:34of him marking João Pedro, and that's the direction he's looking.
11:37I think he's probably right to be getting drawn that way, I think.
11:41But regardless, because of that space that's manufactured and the fact they don't get out
11:45So the ball ends up in this almighty scramble in front of Manchester City's goal, and it's
11:49a Brighton player that gets it first.
11:51And what is notable to me about this scramble is if you look at the bodies on the line for
11:57Manchester City, it is Nunes, it is Lewis, it is Simpson-Pucey.
12:01Like it is not Ake, it is not Diaz, it is not Akange, it is not Stones, and it's not
12:09Rodri either.
12:10Like those are still excellent players in their own right, but when you think about
12:13the physical profile, like the ability to defend and put your body on the line, they're
12:17not the same players by any stretch of the imagination.
12:21So now, you look at that scramble and the fact that Brighton got the goal out from it,
12:25and you zoom all the way out and you see the bigger picture.
12:29They're not competing for that one ball loose in their box particularly well, but also they're
12:33not organising their press correctly, they're getting caught in transition when players
12:37are in the wrong sort of areas, they're losing control of the midfield.
12:43Of course they are, this is the back five against Brighton, and what have you got here?
12:47You've got two kids who can't be expected to be taking the responsibility, you've got
12:50Vardyal who spent most of the season in the opposition's box, you've got celebrity shagger
12:56Kyle Walker, and the actually very good but clearly not Ballon d'Or winning Rodri, Mateo
13:01Kovacic.
13:02Like it's not some secret hack other teams discovered, some really weird tactical thing
13:07they're doing, they're just vulnerable because that is a far more vulnerable base.
13:12Just look at Brighton's winning goal, this is right before the pass comes in, look how
13:18compact and how narrow that entire back four is, I've never ever ever seen a good team
13:25defending ever do anything like that, never mind Manchester City, that is an insane image
13:31to be looking at, look how much space the wide players have.
13:34And the really mad thing is if you showed that to anybody and said guess where this
13:37pass goes, you'd be like well clearly to one of those two out wide, and yet still somehow
13:42they play right through the middle of them.
13:44There's again not enough pressure on the ball, Rico Lewis is not strong enough to make this
13:50run difficult, Vardyal is not switched on and organised enough to cut out the pass,
13:54and he just waltzes through the centre of Manchester City's defence.
13:59In a moment like this, more than anywhere else, is where they miss Rodri, because I
14:03can't keep saying this enough, I do really rate Kovacic, I think he's done a really passable
14:07job being dropped into that situation, but the decision he makes here does nothing for
14:13Manchester City.
14:14When that ball is about to come in, Kovacic has two options, either cut out this passing
14:19lane which is probably what most people would do, or because Pedro's now dropped off the
14:24defenders, you grab a hold of him, you get touch tight and you mark him man for man.
14:29And what he ends up doing in reality is just sort of like neither or both, he sort of gets
14:35drawn towards Pedro but doesn't really take him out of the equation, and in doing so he
14:39leaves enough room for a very good and accurate pass.
14:42And then of course, this is the age old problem with defending, when a player gets caught
14:45between two different things they end up doing neither, because when that pass comes in,
14:51Kovacic just sort of watches it and allows Pedro to run in behind him.
14:55When you wind that situation back far enough, what do you find?
15:01Brighton have a 5v4 against Manchester City in the final third that they're not organising
15:05around and nobody has the cojones to go out and press Bolivar.
15:12They lost control of their press, they lack the organisation at the back, this keeps happening.
15:17And the thing is, I know the result against Sporting looked really bad 4-1, but people
15:22have been quick to point out that the performance wasn't anywhere near that, it wasn't a 4-1
15:27game at all, City should have been out of sight, they missed a penalty, they just got
15:29stung with these counterattacks.
15:32But the problem, how this manifests itself in a game like that, is it was clear to anybody
15:36watching it that having Lewis and Simpson-Pucey on the same side was madness, like Lewis was
15:42inverting and leaving him completely vulnerable and they were putting one of the most deadly
15:46strikers in Europe right on him, and nobody on the pitch, nobody on the pitch took responsibility
15:51for that, and reorganised it.
15:53I really wish I had a more enlightening or interesting point to make in this video than
15:59Manchester City without Diaz and Stones and Ake and Okanji and Rodri are not as good as
16:05they are with them, but that's it, it's not that Guardiola's gone mad, they're still a
16:11very very good team, they just are a team of good players, and when you don't have those
16:17good players, you're not a good team, it's really simple football sometimes.
16:22And that's it, that's all I've got for you, like Manchester City will get these players
16:26back and when they do, they'll look loads, loads better than they currently do, the question
16:31just is, has the title race gone by that point?
16:36I would say no, given this is a team who've proved they're capable of going on like endless
16:41endless winning runs, and Liverpool are still a work in progress, may get found out, may
16:46lose one or two important players to injury, so it's all still to play for, it's just,
16:51we don't expect to see this, like I'm not a Manchester City fan, I have to watch them
16:56with covetous jealous eyes at how successful they are, and the idea of them losing four
17:01games in a row, actually I'll make a bet with you right, when Man City get all their best
17:05players back, watch Pep just invent an entire new formation, do something mad, mad tactically
17:14just to prove you've still got it.
17:16Until that does happen though, and I'm absolutely certain that it will, you can subscribe to
17:20442, I keep forgetting to plug that right at the end of the videos, we love new subscribers,
17:24we grow and it shows that we're doing the good things right and the right things good
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17:34me across all the socials, at Adam Cleary C L E R Y, and the 442 socials are there in
17:39the corner of the video, but until next time, that is it from me and that is it from my
17:43Manchester City, but that is not it for the title aspirations, yeah that had something
17:50to it that, I think that works, I'll stop talking now.