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00:00Growing up for me, out on the West Coast, to wake up around 9, 9.30am, especially maybe
00:10in my high school or college years, when the libations started to flow on the night before
00:16Thanksgiving known as Blackout Wednesday, you get back with the people, you're having
00:21a fun time.
00:22It was a little bit difficult to wake up for that 9.30am Pacific time.
00:27However, with the Lions, right?
00:30Not anymore.
00:32Not the same old Lions.
00:34It's appointment television.
00:36Anytime the 10 and 1 Detroit Lions take the football field and an NFC North duel to start
00:43off Thanksgiving hosting the Chicago Bears.
00:47It is though a rather large spread to start off Turkey Day, a 10.5 point number in favor
00:53of Detroit.
00:54Total at 48.5.
00:56What can we expect for the first course on Thanksgiving?
01:00Yeah, well, a blowout.
01:04Thanksgiving has told us over the years, Ben, that the chalk is really dominated these games
01:11in Thanksgiving.
01:12In fact, I believe since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving, Ben, 48.9, straight up 38.19
01:21against the spread.
01:22And if you're a double digit favorite, well, those are 9 and 0 against the number on Thanksgiving
01:27since 2005 and 11 and 0 since the wildcard era back in 1990.
01:33So it has always been profitable to back the chalk on Thanksgiving here, even the double
01:40digit kind.
01:42And when that chalk is the best cover team in the National Football League in the last
01:46three and a half years, you can feel even a tad more confident.
01:50Detroit since the start of 2023, 19 and 7 against the spread this year in their 10 victories,
01:57they have covered nine times.
01:59Meanwhile, Chicago, two covers in a row or at least a push, depending on where you got
02:05that closing number on Sunday against the Vikings.
02:08But anytime Chicago has covered a number or not lost against the spread, a pure non-cover
02:16Joe.
02:17They've been at home short week, early start on the road in Detroit.
02:23Not necessarily a recipe for success.
02:27The Bears have lost five straight games.
02:29They had gone under in their first four of these five straight losses.
02:34They went over, of course, against Minnesota in a large way even before over time with
02:40that rally down by two touchdowns in the fourth and final quarter.
02:45So we know that the favorites are generally going to win rather comfortably and maybe
02:50even cover as a double digit favorite on Thanksgiving.
02:54Just so many benefits of being at home, being there on a short week.
03:00And it's not short week prime time.
03:02Those additional hours crucial.
03:03This is short week, 1230 p.m.
03:06Local time start in the Motor City.
03:09But Joe, what does that mean then for points?
03:1148 and a half is a lot for a short week Thursday night game, especially a short week Thursday
03:18game that kicks a little bit after lunch.
03:21Yeah.
03:22And another one of these situations, Ben, where the overs have actually been not a bad
03:28look in these in these games here, a little less defense, a little more offense, especially
03:34when we're talking about a team, Ben, that has already dropped 50 plus points.
03:38How many times this year and should not have a problem doing it again?
03:44I don't think they are in jeopardy of losing like we saw Green Bay beat them with Detroit
03:50being a favorite a year ago, which ruined the hopes and dreams of a lot of people that
03:55were in a survivor pool last Thanksgiving.
03:57I don't see that happening again this year with Detroit.
04:01I do think a lot of points could very well be coming in this game.
04:05I mean, how many had Minnesota lighten them up last week against that defense?