MEDI1TV Afrique : La nouvelle administration Trump, quelle politique envers l'Iran ? - 30/11/2024
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00:00Welcome to a new episode of In Washington.
00:14We're going to talk about the four members of this administration, namely, the key positions
00:19of the cabinet and the administration.
00:21Early indicators of diplomacy and diplomacy, Tehran is preparing for the return of Donald
00:26Trump.
00:28I'm Mark Albert, and I have the honor of replacing Mark Feifli.
00:34As the elected president, Donald Trump is preparing to finalize the composition of his
00:39administration, the focus is on the key personalities that will shape the orientation of his presidency.
00:45Whether it's ministerial nominations or strategic positions, each designated member
00:51brings his expertise, his convictions and his specific political orientations.
00:55These choices not only reflect Trump's vision for the next three years, but also provide
01:00a glimpse of the priorities and the dynamics of his future domestic and foreign policy.
01:06Today, we delve into the key figures of this new administration, and the implications
01:12of their appointment.
01:14Who are the people behind Trump's decision?
01:18Their profile oscillates between convinced and pragmatic, realistic conservatives, each
01:23being likely to imprint his mark on crucial issues such as the economy, national security
01:29and international relations.
01:31Among the issues, the impact of these nominations on the security of the United States allies,
01:36especially in Europe, as well as on transatlantic relations.
01:39In addition, the foreign policy of the Trump administration raises major questions,
01:44especially on the Iranian issue.
01:47The first statements and strategic choices suggest a possible rupture with the previous
01:53approaches, also between a toughening of sanctions and a renegotiation of existing agreements.
01:59Will we see this change of course intensify the tensions or open a window for dialogue?
02:03The initial indicators of Trump's stance on Tehran require an in-depth analysis to evaluate
02:12their consequences on the stability of the Middle East.
02:16Another crucial question concerns the place of strategic allies such as Morocco in this
02:22new approach.
02:24Faced with the growing influence of Iran in North Africa and its support of destabilizing
02:30activities, Morocco, like Saudi Arabia, is waiting for a strong American leadership to
02:37preserve regional stability and protect their interests.
02:42The Trump administration will have to reconcile the need to respond to these challenges while
02:47exploring diplomatic ways to reduce tensions.
02:51A reflection on the potential strategies and their impact on a global scale is required
02:57to understand the issues of this new era in American governance.
03:02To discuss these topics with me today, I have the pleasure of welcoming four guests.
03:06First, via Zoom, Norman Ruhle, a non-resident chief advisor on the Transnational Threats
03:12Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
03:15During a 34-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, Norman Ruhle supervised major programs
03:21related to the Middle East.
03:23We also welcome Lincoln Bloomfield, former Secretary of State for Political and Military
03:28Affairs.
03:29He has also exercised as Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs.
03:33Lincoln Bloomfield has served as the Vice President for National Security Affairs.
03:37I also welcome Dr. Ramesh Sehparad, an Iranian-American author and university professor.
03:43She is a cybersecurity professor at Connecticut University and teaches Middle East Studies
03:49at Baltimore University.
03:51She also chairs the Advisory Board for the Organization of Iranian-American Communities,
03:58which brings together 40 sections across the United States.
04:03And I'm accompanied here as well, as usual, by Chris LaPetina, our special editor and
04:08focus consulting strategist.
04:10Chris is a very close collaborator with the Democratic Party.
04:14Now, before starting our discussion, let's turn to our correspondent, Jian Mansour,
04:19for the following report.
04:21We'll be back after the break.
04:28Thank you, Mark.
04:30The composition of the government team, led by the President-elect of the United States,
04:36Donald Trump, is a key step in one of the most striking episodes of the American political
04:42transition following both a captivating and decisive election.
04:46Given the strategic role of the United States on the international political scene, the
04:53positions of the new administration on foreign policy arouse particular attention, especially
05:03with regard to the Moroccan Sahara issue.
05:07This file represents a fundamental issue and an essential barometer for the Moroccan people
05:15in evaluating the personalities and political orientations that will manage this crucial
05:22issue related to the territorial integrity of the kingdom.
05:26In this context, the US Department of State and influential political figures such as
05:32Senator Marco Rubio play a decisive role in bilateral relations between Morocco and
05:38its strategic ally, the United States.
05:41Rubio's positions, aligned with those of the American administration, firmly support
05:47the territorial integrity of Morocco and reinforce the proposition of autonomy under
05:53Moroccan sovereignty as a realistic and viable solution.
05:57In addition, his clear opposition to the attitude of Algeria, which hinders efforts in favor
06:03of a peaceful solution based on diplomatic dialogue, reflects a coherent commitment
06:09to the principles of security and stability promoted by the United States.
06:14Marco Rubio would have expressed his intention to officially propose the imposition of sanctions
06:20against Algeria in response to his opposition to US security policies worldwide, to its
06:26destabilizing activities in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as to its violations
06:33of US economic sanctions imposed on Russia.
06:38However, Morocco does not exclusively base its approach to territorial integrity on the
06:44positions of any foreign administration.
06:47The kingdom, on the whole of its territory, relies on a solid national consensus and an
06:53unwavering determination embodied by the enlightened vision of His Majesty King Mohammed VI.
07:01Thanks to his wisdom and his balanced diplomatic approach, Morocco continues to consolidate
07:07its place among the nations, while affirming with conviction its sovereignty and territorial
07:13unity.
07:14Thank you Jihan.
07:16Chris, let's start with you.
07:19Now, what is your analysis on the appointments by the President-elect so far for his cabinet,
07:26what are the most prominent names and positions in your opinion?
07:30Well, thank you, Marc.
07:31And it's going to be a great show today.
07:33This is a great guest attack on the nation.
07:36I think most importantly, our selection so far, our reviewer, has mentioned some crucial
07:42questions around who we are and how this is a foreign thing.
07:46The Secretary of State, the new National Security Ambassador, and then also the President-elect
07:52in particular are key figures shaping the foreign policy of the United States.
07:56The Secretary of State, the new Ambassador to the United Nations, as well as the National
08:02Security Council.
08:03These three personalities from the US Congress have a solid experience in foreign affairs.
08:08They have also perceived, to a certain extent, as adopting a firm stance towards Iran, in
08:14particular because of their support for Israel.
08:17So, it's easy to see if the President is sticking to the guidelines he might propose, or if he
08:23created his own ideas based on maybe some of the suggestions that they come up with.
08:27He wrote a book called The Art of Deals, so he must be known as an expert dealmaker.
08:31Absolutely.
08:32That will be part of his foreign policy.
08:34Doctor, let me ask you, why do you have to name Senator Marco Rubio as his Secretary
08:39of State?
08:40He's one of the most vocal opponents of the rule of law in the United States.
08:44I think Senator Rubio stands on a very strong message, which is to say how people on the
09:08ground have to deal with this regime.
09:09We look at what was happening at the time.
09:11Because of Iran's actually tyrannical regime change, what they experienced with their lives
09:17and then with their blood.
09:18In fact, as we see in this picture, we are at the anniversary of the bloody November
09:23of 2019, when this regime massacred 1,500 on our protests.
09:28So, Senator Rubio has been very vocal in the events of November 2019, in the presence of
09:34the people of Iran, and the call for a non-nuclear state to be public.
09:39So, I think the administration is in a real position to really take a bold lead in this
09:44job, and really continue to have some special policies to empower the people of Iran, so
09:49that it can really change, and ultimately change, something that serves our democracy.
09:54Norm, let me start with you.
09:56Thank you for having me.
10:09I think the best way to look at President-elect Trump's elections is to consider them as
10:13a reflection of his vision of the world.
10:15They are individuals who share not only his convictions, but who also have a great deal
10:19of loyalty, while adopting a perspective that is based on the interests of the United States.
10:24Trump seems to consider that domestic policy and foreign policy are closely linked, which
10:29reveals a particular importance.
10:31During his previous administration, the divergences of points of view between him and certain officials
10:36he had appointed generated friction, thus hindering the implementation of certain policies.
10:41This time, his ambition is to quickly establish a series of transformative reforms aimed at
10:45boosting the American economy and stabilizing various regions of the world.
10:50To do so, he needs to have a team that is moving in the same direction.
10:57Let me talk about that with you, on the subject, if you don't mind.
11:00What lessons did you draw from the choices you made for certain key positions,
11:04notably that of Secretary of State with Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, as we just discussed,
11:10and that of Secretary of Defense with Pete Hegseth, host of Fox News.
11:14What do those signify to you?
11:17So I think we're looking at a series of qualities and shared characteristics.
11:23None of these individuals, including President-elect Trump, want to see the United States engage
11:28in a conflict in the region, nor do they want to see a war.
11:30None of these individuals want to see a war in the region.
11:33In fact, all of these individuals, which they run, are retained in Israel.
11:39All of these individuals are strong supporters of the United States, but all of these individuals
11:44are also strong supporters of America's most reliable partners.
11:49They're also strong supporters of the Moroccan government,
11:52where it's been a no-doubt, with its new administration,
11:55a Moroccan regionalized approach.
11:58I think if you begin to construct a regional approach based on these characteristics,
12:03it's easy to see how this edifice, this structure, will be built.
12:09Right. And of course, Donald Trump has promised that there will be no wars.
12:12Ambassador Bloomfield, I would like to turn to you.
12:14To what extent do you think President Trump has given priority to the partisans of a hard line
12:19towards Iran in the process of selecting members of his future cabinet?
12:23First of all, nice to see you and greetings to your viewers.
12:27And thank you for having me on the show.
12:29I don't think that President-elect Trump chose his cabinet with very specific policies in mind.
12:38Maybe with the exception of Israel, where Governor Huckabee
12:44who is a very angelical Christian who visits Israel a lot,
12:50and then his peace envoy, it looks as though these will be people
12:57that the current governor, Mike Huckabee, who likes very much,
13:01they don't, doesn't look like.
13:03It looks like Trump will be very much supportive of Netanyahu in the United States in office.
13:11But you know, when you look at Crimea in Russia,
13:15you look at Iran, you look at the challenge of China under Xi Jinping
13:21and the issue of Taiwan's foreign status.
13:25I don't think the cabinet selections were,
13:29were made with that in mind.
13:33Very different from the first time Trump was elected.
13:37The first time Trump was elected,
13:39he brought in people with a high standing in the establishment.
13:44That don't matter.
13:46Rex Tillerson was CEO for one of the largest companies in the world.
13:50And Senator Coats, who had been ambassador to Germany,
13:56he was actually sending a message to his supporters,
14:00the MAGA, Make America Great Again supporters, against the establishment.
14:05Norman, we all know that the style of the President of the United States
14:09is very different from the style of the President of the United States.
14:13He is a very different person.
14:15He is a very different person.
14:17He is a very different person.
14:19He is a very different person.
14:22Norman, we all know that the style of President Trump
14:25is a mix of unconventional politicians and bold entrepreneurs.
14:29Do you think he will continue to adopt this approach
14:32in his policies towards our allies?
14:34Or do you think he will continue to adopt this approach
14:37in his policies towards our allies?
14:39Or will we see a second Trump
14:41that would have to be a more conventional politician?
14:44Certainly.
14:45But let's, let's unpack that a little bit.
14:48President Trump is known for his talent as a negotiator,
14:51a quality of which he is particularly proud.
14:53Although other politicians and decision-makers
14:55may also consider themselves negotiators,
14:58President Trump has a distinct approach,
15:00almost instinctive.
15:02However, in order for an agreement to be reached,
15:04it is imperative that each party takes it into account.
15:07Certainly, President Trump may proclaim
15:09that he has obtained a more exciting victory
15:11than that of his partner,
15:13but this is a common practice among businessmen
15:15when they conclude transactions.
15:17In order for a negotiation to be truly successful,
15:19two essential conditions must be met.
15:21First, the partner must be convinced
15:23that he is making a significant advantage of the agreement.
15:26Then, it must be clear to the other actors
15:28that have collaborated with President Trump
15:30that they can also benefit in their own context.
15:33An excellent example of this dynamic
15:35is illustrated by the Abraham Accords.
15:37Countries that have joined
15:39have benefited from considerable investment,
15:41increased commercial opportunities
15:43and substantial political support.
15:45These agreements have created a situation
15:47in which each party could benefit
15:49and present it as a victory
15:51according to its own priorities.
15:53I think it is important to emphasize
15:55that an agreement can only be viable
15:57if it is based on a win-win scenario.
15:59It is precisely this approach
16:01that President-elect Trump favors.
16:07Let's continue this discussion
16:09around Trump as a potential negotiator.
16:11Doctor, some observers suggest
16:13that the President-elect could look for
16:15an opportunity for peace
16:17or a form of normalization with the Iranian regime.
16:19What is the perception of the Iranian opposition
16:21in this regard?
16:29I think the real issue here
16:31lies in the following question,
16:33which is truly at the negotiating table.
16:35As Norman pointed out,
16:37it is essential to identify
16:39the actors involved in the conclusion
16:41of an agreement with the new administration.
16:43If we look at the situation in Tehran,
16:45we face a fragilized regime
16:47contested by a growing population
16:49that aspires to a radical change.
16:51The Iranian people
16:53are trying to overthrow
16:55the authorities in place
16:57and this will manifests itself
16:59through an intensification
17:01of unrest, strikes
17:03and demonstrations
17:05across the country.
17:07These events clearly illustrate
17:09the weakness
17:11of the Iranian regime.
17:13Therefore, in order to reach
17:15a truly legitimate agreement,
17:17it must be concluded
17:19with the Iranian people themselves
17:21who aspire to a secular
17:23and non-nuclear republic.
17:25It is important to note
17:27that the concept of regime change
17:29sometimes arouses reluctance
17:31in Washington because of past experience.
17:33But in this case,
17:35the message of regime change
17:37would actively support
17:39this movement as a central pillar
17:41of its policy towards Iran.
17:45You say regime change
17:47will not come from abroad,
17:49but from within.
17:51Yes, it is a genuine change.
17:53The message of regime change
17:55emanates from within Iran
17:57and not from Washington.
17:59Ambassador Bloomfield,
18:01according to you,
18:03what do you think
18:05of this strategy?
18:07It seems that he plans
18:09to pursue it in his next term.
18:11Mark, I think
18:13that Trump clearly
18:15expressed it a few years ago
18:17when he withdrew
18:19from the JCPOA
18:21on Iranian nuclear.
18:23Indeed, Obama and his team
18:25had finally concluded
18:27a nuclear agreement
18:29with a state in Paris
18:31that for years
18:33had been the goal
18:35of U.S. foreign policy.
18:37And Trump criticized
18:39the deal many people did.
18:41It was not a perfect deal
18:43at all.
18:45But what I think
18:47he wanted to do
18:49was pressure Iran
18:51to come to the negotiating table
18:53and negotiate a stronger
18:55nuclear deal than Obama
18:57and his team had
18:59reached.
19:01The question is
19:03we see a little bit
19:05of indication
19:07that he may still
19:09be insisting
19:11pressuring Iran
19:13to reach a better
19:15nuclear deal.
19:17I think it's very late
19:19in the game for that
19:21and I think there are
19:23many, many other
19:25substantial issues
19:27with Iran
19:29but I'm not sure
19:31who was the coordinator
19:33of maximum pressure
19:35in the State Department.
19:37And so I believe,
19:39I'll give you my view
19:41because I'm involved
19:43in this issue,
19:45I believe it's time
19:47for a policy review
19:49and that there is
19:51new information
19:53on Iran
19:55that Washington
19:57is not always
19:59focused on different goals
20:01with Iran.
20:03Norman, I'd like to ask you
20:05about the first Trump
20:07administration did tight
20:09sanctions on Iran
20:11assuming in return
20:13this maximum pressure
20:15causing, how do you think
20:17the President-elect will
20:19balance that when he's
20:21back in the Oval Office
20:23with the desire of some
20:25United States to cut
20:27economic and commercial
20:29ties with Iran,
20:31with the exception of
20:33food stamps and drugs
20:35and that's allowed
20:37by sanctions to Iran.
20:39So the U.S. needs to ask
20:41its partners allies
20:43and it does impose itself
20:45in a broader sense.
20:47Secondly, it's no question
20:49that the sanctions work
20:51but you have to understand
20:53that the U.S. has been created
20:55to treat among the misdeeds
20:57of Washington your leaders
20:59in which they say,
21:01look at all the pain,
21:03it carries activity
21:05and destabilizing activity.
21:07So they have a debate saying
21:09in a regular country,
21:11no it's not, we should stop that too.
21:13Were sanctions
21:15impactful on Iran?
21:17No question.
21:19In fact, President Obama
21:21and publicly stated
21:23groups like Hezbollah,
21:25Hamas and the Houthis
21:27because a sanction under
21:29the Trump administration
21:31sanctions severely reduce
21:33the amount of resources
21:35people like Hezbollah, Hamas
21:37and the Houthis.
21:39Now, to understand that,
21:41these sanctions, the terrorist
21:43group in the United States
21:45was less capable
21:47and their less capable
21:49but under sanctions, people
21:51stayed alive in greater numbers.
21:53But when sanctions were released,
21:55terrorist groups have more money
21:57and you have the violence
21:59we've seen in the Middle East region.
22:01The Trump administration
22:03will certainly insist on sanctions
22:05in respect. And any country
22:07that violates that will find
22:09themselves in very difficult
22:11positions in this administration
22:13which will impose sanctions on them
22:15because again, people die.
22:17And sanctions is small,
22:19but of course, a critical point
22:21is sanctions, which really
22:23goes to the quick course
22:25of the intelligence service
22:27and its missile programs.
22:29So let me ask both of you here on set.
22:31Chris, let me start with you.
22:33What is your view on sanctions?
22:35Is the second verse the same
22:37as the first? Are there more
22:39to implement even?
22:41Well, I think there's another
22:43side to sanctions, which Obama
22:45and Biden could affirm
22:47that in one way or another,
22:49it allows the Iranian regime
22:51to present the United States
22:53and the West as emissary books
22:55by saying to the Iranian people
22:57that all this pain that they're
22:59suffering because of them
23:01not because of the regime
23:03themselves, it is because
23:05it's a failed regime.
23:07So in reality, I think that
23:09if sanctions are imposed
23:11in a kind of holistic,
23:13educated and probably even
23:15tried to help the citizens
23:17of Iran, that they may again
23:19have more chances to succeed.
23:21And I think maybe Trump,
23:23as a dealmaker, right,
23:25I think like a lot of business
23:27that he learns from the past
23:29experiences, and at this time
23:31might try to create some kind
23:33of new policy that's different
23:35and better than their last policy.
23:37Doctor, let me ask you this.
23:39Are we going back to sanctions
23:41and what are the broader
23:43economic and geopolitical consequences
23:45to that?
23:47I think what Ambassador Bloomfield
23:49said is valid. I think it is
23:51time for a thorough review
23:53of Iranian policy.
23:55I think sanctions are
23:57important instruments,
23:59but they should not be called
24:01a head of state in Tehran.
24:03You have to look at the
24:05Iranian threat as a whole.
24:07It's very important to take
24:09into consideration the
24:11situation five years ago.
24:13The regime five years ago was
24:15actually still under JCPOA.
24:17They had all kinds of incentive
24:19that they got from the Obama
24:21administration over the Trump
24:23administration with the maximum
24:25pressure and the sanctions that
24:27were targeted by the IRGC,
24:29the Revolutionary Guards.
24:31Those were actually very
24:33effective, reducing Iran's
24:35ability to sell the oil
24:37which limited its resources
24:39to finance terror and its
24:41nuclear ambitions.
24:43The new administration,
24:45in my opinion, should really
24:47look at the Iran as a holistic
24:49approach to the Iranian people
24:51at its center.
24:53Protection of the movement,
24:55protection of the post-cold war
24:57regime, and enabling them
24:59to face technology including
25:01access to the internet.
25:03As well as, of course,
25:05understanding how we really
25:07isolate this regime so that
25:09the Iranian people can actually
25:11do what they need to do.
25:13Everything that we have seen
25:15so far is pointing to the
25:17right direction.
25:19But it really needs to go
25:21beyond the sanctions and to
25:23really expand the sanctions
25:25and to introduce accountability
25:27due to the Iranian sanctions
25:29and empowering the Iranian
25:31people.
25:33And in your view,
25:35quick follow-up to Laura's
25:37first question, in your view,
25:39does isolating the regime
25:41mean preventing them from
25:43selling oil to US or
25:45Western allies?
25:47I think if you look at the
25:49apartheid regime in South Africa
25:51and what more, the next question
25:53could be more on Iran as well.
25:55Doctor, thank you very much.
25:57In the second part of this
25:59program, we will continue our
26:01short break. Stay with us.
26:19Welcome back to the second
26:21part of the program from Washington.
26:23Our discussion today will go
26:25about President-elect Trump's
26:27picks for his cabinet and his
26:29policies he envisages to put
26:31in place vis-à-vis Iran.
26:33Chris, let me ask you, Morocco
26:35was the person born of Hezbollah
26:37and Iran in Africa.
26:39Do you believe that President-elect
26:41Trump will take Morocco's
26:43concerns in consideration
26:45as he formulates policy?
26:47One of the things that we
26:49reinforce on this show
26:51and we continue to learn about
26:53is what respect for Morocco
26:55is in our region.
26:57I think that you brought up
26:59a very good point, Morocco
27:01was the first to warn about
27:03Hezbollah and that's a lesson
27:05first, I think, going forward
27:07with this administration.
27:09We know this is a lesson
27:11that we should listen to our
27:13very close ally, Morocco,
27:15that Morocco understands the
27:17region and understands
27:19what the dangers, the risks
27:21and the opportunities are.
27:23Now, of course, Hezbollah,
27:25it's been a threat for years
27:27by the U.S. government,
27:29we could reach him,
27:31and I do think that Donald
27:33Trump has been aggressive
27:35as possible in doing
27:37whatever it can to mitigate
27:39Hezbollah to help Israel
27:41improve Hezbollah's ability
27:43to create terrorism.
27:45And I think that's also
27:47one of the lessons
27:49that we can learn
27:51from this administration
27:53by the United States
27:55and our Western allies
27:57as well.
28:19It's a huge issue
28:21for the United States
28:23and it's a strategic
28:25and important region for Morocco.
28:27We know the problems that
28:29are happening in the Sahel
28:31and we don't want the continuation
28:33of those activities which directly
28:35threaten the United States.
28:37So once again, I think Donald
28:39Trump will work with our ally,
28:41Morocco, and some kind of policy
28:43to eliminate any kind of terrorist
28:45activities that not only affect
28:47Morocco's security, but the
28:49security of Hezbollah.
29:19I would say that there is no amount of talks
29:21or negotiation or peace
29:23that the Iranian regime does not
29:25completely figure.
29:27What's really found relevant
29:29in a nuclear bomb
29:31is how to get
29:33a nuclear weapon
29:35and I think that should be
29:37the key statements
29:39to our Iranian policy.
29:41I rely on the Iranian people
29:43to write the proposals
29:45for us to take
29:47and therefore I would say
29:49from the administration standpoint
29:51the message is clear
29:53from the inside of Iran.
29:55Let's empower that voice
29:57and let's really push forward
29:59a policy that is firm
30:01and it stands on the side
30:03of the people.
30:05You just mentioned what's happened
30:07in the last couple of months
30:09and couple of years.
30:11Of course the Iranian allies,
30:13Hezbollah and Hamas,
30:15have been considerably weakened
30:17during the recent clashes with Israel.
30:19In response to the actions of Iran,
30:21reports published by the Washington Post
30:23and the New York Times
30:25indicate that a nuclear site in Iran
30:27would have been destroyed.
30:29These events are significant developments.
30:31If Donald Trump were to join this trend,
30:33what would be the reaction of the Iranian regime?
30:35The Iranian regime
30:37is currently in a situation
30:39of profound despair.
30:41They are trying not only to survive
30:43but also to resist
30:45the pressure
30:47inside the country.
30:49From this point of view,
30:51they are trying to reconfigure
30:53the dynamics in their favor
30:55and maybe even to engage
30:57in negotiations on the nuclear issue.
30:59This is part of a strategic
31:01attempt to play on
31:03Donald Trump's reputation
31:05as a negotiator.
31:07However, it is important to note
31:09that the rhetoric in the West
31:11is trying to make up for
31:13the reality experienced
31:15in the Iranian streets.
31:17To formulate an effective
31:19and coherent policy
31:21towards Iran,
31:23it is imperative
31:25that we do not let ourselves
31:27be overwhelmed
31:29by the official speech
31:31of the Iranian leaders
31:33but rather to focus
31:35our attention
31:37on the real situation.
31:39Will we be prepared
31:41to respond to any threat
31:43from Iran or its proxies
31:45to Morocco?
31:47Morocco is a profoundly
31:49important strategic partner
31:51for the United States
31:53and is critical to Africa
31:55and European security.
31:57I don't think people spend enough time
31:59noting that Morocco's
32:01tremendous strategic location
32:03on the map and its importance
32:05to the economic and political
32:07future. One day a history
32:09will be written, hopefully
32:11in English, that conveys that many
32:13caused death in the world to see
32:15because of my involvement
32:17from Moroccan securism
32:19against Iran and against Morocco.
32:21And your points are correct
32:23on Iran's role in
32:25stabilizing Morocco's region
32:27but it's actually working.
32:29Iran is currently attempting
32:31to build relations with
32:33countries such as Niger and Sudan
32:35which involves the Quds Force
32:37and providing missiles
32:39and cargo to Sudan.
32:41Iran is actively providing
32:43a port in Sudan
32:45which will allow it to bring
32:47logistics into Africa
32:49to burn fighters,
32:51train camps, drone missiles
32:53or land missiles throughout
32:55the sub-saharan region
32:57threatening Morocco and North Africa itself.
32:59The Trump administration
33:01working with partners
33:03such as Morocco
33:05and Saudi Arabia
33:07will no doubt
33:09put back on this effort
33:11because it takes a team effort
33:13and as always when it comes
33:15to work with Africa
33:17the United States will rely
33:19heavily on the wisdom
33:21of Morocco's leadership
33:23but also the deep and
33:25serious Moroccan security
33:27forces. They're very valuable
33:29partners with many accomplishments.
33:31That's why I'm curious
33:33about your thoughts on the same question.
33:35Will the Trump administration
33:37be prepared to respond
33:39to any threat from Iran
33:41or its allies in Morocco?
33:43I think potentially
33:45his foreign policy
33:47and security team
33:49could be inclined
33:51to respond positively
33:53when they hear from their
33:55friends in Morocco
33:57and say we need help
33:59from Israel.
34:01If they say Morocco
34:03has a problem and we need to help them
34:05I think they would be inclined
34:07to be helpful.
34:09What I'd like to see
34:11is more exposure
34:13of what Iran is really doing.
34:15And by that I mean
34:17we need to understand
34:19those Iranian drones
34:21that they're deploying, the Revolution drones
34:23are now in Ethiopia and in Spain
34:25and they're destabilizing in Morocco
34:27and they will go further.
34:29They're in, of course, Ukraine.
34:31And what does this do?
34:33This is a food supply for North Africa.
34:35The Ukrainian food supply
34:37is threatened by Iran.
34:39And I think that means we have to dodge
34:41that. I would like to hear
34:43concerns from Egypt or Morocco
34:45and others to say
34:47Iran is part of the reason
34:49we are suffering. Look at the Suez Canal
34:51being losing revenues
34:53because of what Iran is doing
34:55in the Middle East and they even put
34:57their own Russia there to coordinate
34:59the attacks. So I think
35:01we need to put the finger
35:03of blame where it belongs here.
35:05Then we need to talk about how to stop it
35:07and it's not just in the Middle East.
35:09And by the way,
35:11let me just say, I believe
35:13the regime in Iran is in
35:15a very thin iceberg.
35:17It is obviously acting out of
35:19fear that they will
35:21no longer be in power.
35:23So I don't think Iran's
35:25being lost by longer.
35:27I think this is what we should be talking about.
35:29Let's go in depth now.
35:31Just a little bit. Earlier you were asking
35:33between a senior Iranian official
35:35and an entrepreneur who had to work
35:37to closely help Trump
35:39with his transition.
35:41A great deal of popularity
35:43of a change in the past
35:45between Iran and Washington
35:47under the Trump administration.
35:49This is by the inventor of
35:51himself that she wants to solicit this meeting
35:53and that the ambassador was in charge of choosing the place.
35:55I suggest you follow the
35:57report of the New York Times.
35:59Let's watch this report
36:01on reporting
36:03by the New York Times.
36:15Under the title of Iranian officials
36:17say that Elon Musk
36:19met with the ambassador of Iran
36:21at the United Nations.
36:23The New York Times published an article
36:25by the Iranian-American journalist
36:27Farnaz Fassihi,
36:29which begins the article by noting that Elon Musk,
36:31close advisor to President Donald Trump,
36:33met with the ambassador of Iran
36:35at the United Nations in New York.
36:37This meeting,
36:39described by two Iranian officials,
36:41would have been devoted
36:43to a discussion on ways
36:45to reduce tensions
36:47between the United States
36:49and the United States.
36:51According to these sources,
36:53the meeting between Musk and
36:55Ambassador Amir Saeed Iravani
36:57lasted more than an hour
36:59and was held in a secret place.
37:01The Iranian officials,
37:03expressing themselves under the cover of anonymity,
37:05described the meeting as positive.
37:09The New York Times journalist
37:11also recalled that during his first term,
37:13Trump had withdrawn the United States
37:15from the 2015 nuclear agreement
37:17between Iran and the world powers,
37:19calling it a terrible unilateral agreement
37:21that he estimated
37:23should never have taken place.
37:25Subsequently, he imposed
37:27severe economic sanctions
37:29on Iran's oil revenues
37:31and its international banking transactions,
37:33while giving away the assassination
37:35of one of Iran's highest-ranking generals,
37:37Qasem Soleimani,
37:39in Iraq in 2020.
37:45The Iranian-American journalist
37:47Farnaz Fasehi
37:49concludes her article
37:51by saying that despite the historic
37:53hostility between Trump and Iran,
37:55it seems that the latter
37:57wants to keep the door open
37:59to diplomacy.
38:01The journalist reports that
38:03Trump also seems to be interested
38:05in Iranian affairs through
38:07the International Crisis Group.
38:09Although some of its advisers
38:11prefer a more pressing approach
38:13to Iran, analysts believe
38:15that everything is possible with him.
38:17In conclusion,
38:19the journalist specifies
38:21that the Iranian mission
38:23with the United Nations
38:25did not wish to publicly comment
38:27on this meeting.
38:35Doctor, I would like to ask you
38:37a question about this article.
38:39It is indicated, I quote,
38:41that Iran is openly debating
38:43whether it can have a new,
38:45more sustainable deal
38:47with the United States.
38:49Is this the beginning
38:51of a new phase,
38:53or is this simply
38:55an attempt to buy time?
38:57It is another era of buying time.
38:59It is possible that we are
39:01at the dawn of a new period
39:03where we are trying to buy time.
39:05It is a desperate regime
39:07that is trying to figure out
39:09two issues.
39:11First, the aspiration
39:13for regional hegemony
39:15which has weakened considerably.
39:17Second, the clock is ticking
39:19inside Iran with the Iranian people
39:21protesting in the streets
39:23against a dictator,
39:25be it Shah or Mullah.
39:27The will of the Iranian people
39:29to see a change
39:31and to consider an alternative
39:33to the current regime
39:35is now very clear.
39:37There is a real conflict
39:39between the regime
39:41and the Iranian people
39:43for democracy and freedom
39:45as well as a battle
39:47for legitimacy
39:49between the regime
39:51and the people of Iran.
39:53If we combine these three factors,
39:55it becomes obvious
39:57that the last legitimacy
39:59of the Iranian regime
40:01is a desperate attempt
40:03to buy time.
40:05This regime wants to survive
40:07by repressing its people
40:09and has a nuclear bomb
40:11to consolidate its role
40:13as a major player in the region.
40:15It seems to me
40:17that our attention
40:19must focus on this specific point.
40:21One of the things
40:23that Ambassador Bloomfield
40:25mentioned is particularly relevant.
40:27We must prepare ourselves
40:29for the aftermath of this regime
40:31and understand on which alternative
40:33we must support
40:35to replace this regime.
40:37And if there is an alternative
40:39that supports a non-nuclear
40:41secular republic,
40:43that is the path forward
40:45that really will give us
40:47that lasting peace
40:49in the region.
40:51Or are we going to repeat
40:53the same process that we
40:55similar to the Chalabi model
40:57where we can manage our opposition
40:59or go with the fake policy
41:01out of the American policy going forward?
41:03And last question for Chris.
41:05As you know, Donald Trump
41:07often likes to associate the rise
41:09of the markets with the success
41:11of the falling markets.
41:13The markets hate instability
41:15in the Middle East,
41:17the impact on oil, etc.
41:19Donald Trump also expressed
41:21his desire not to start
41:23any new war.
41:25So I'm curious
41:27how do you imagine
41:29the future by saying Mark,
41:31one of the things I really,
41:33really appreciate about this show
41:35is that we create the best ideas
41:37for Washington for our viewers.
41:39And I think today's episode
41:41is a perfect example of that.
41:43Three experts come on,
41:45talk about how to contain Iran,
41:47how to prevent Iran from continuing
41:49to threaten peace in the United States,
41:51but in the world,
41:53and none of them mentioned the war.
41:55So I think that we can take
41:57some of the brilliant ideas
41:59that we've heard today
42:01and put them into practice.
42:03I think that Donald Trump
42:05and his collaborators
42:07will pay attention
42:09to the experts' opinions
42:11that we've heard
42:13and that they will act
42:15accordingly.
42:17I don't expect
42:19a new war to start
42:21to contain Iran
42:23and to, however,
42:25give us your forecast.
42:27Chris, I'll start with you.
42:29How do you see the future
42:31of foreign policy for Trump
42:33in the next four years?
42:35Wins, losses?
42:37No, listen, as an American,
42:39I hope that there will be
42:41victories, right?
42:43And it's important because
42:45the world is currently
42:47in a little bit of a tender
42:49situation.
42:51And the United States
42:53needs to understand
42:55what it really takes
42:57to establish democracy
42:59and promote human rights
43:01in the Middle East.
43:03It should be a compass
43:05for regional strategy.
43:07It is essential to support
43:09the peoples of the region
43:11who reject a regime
43:13like the one of Tehran.
43:15The image of the head of snake
43:17in Tehran resonates
43:19deeply with the inhabitants
43:21of the region.
43:23And I think we can harness
43:25that analogy of the snake
43:27and see how we could
43:29cut this snake
43:31and empower the people
43:33in the region.
43:35So the people of Iran
43:37have been fighting
43:39for democracy
43:41for the last four decades.
43:43They have been fighting.
43:45And I think more importantly
43:47is the women of Iran.
43:49They are writing slogans
43:51on the walls.
43:53They are challenging
43:55a misogynistic regime.
43:57If we add to this
43:59the broader quest
44:01for democracy in Iran,
44:03I think the crystal ball
44:05shows us that it is possible
44:07to achieve a peaceful
44:09and stable Middle East
44:11free from the threat
44:13of war or terrorism.
44:15However, in order to achieve
44:17that, we really need
44:19to stay focused
44:21on the direction that we pick
44:23in unaffirmed policies,
44:25starting with Tehran.
44:27Thank you both for your
44:29crystal ball predictions.
44:31Thank you at home for
44:33watching this episode.
44:35We watched it and certainly
44:37hope you enjoyed this
44:39period of discussion with you.
44:41Remember to support
44:43this program through
44:45Patreon, which is
44:47linked in the description.
44:49Thank you to our
44:51co-hosts,
44:53Jehan Mansour,
44:55and the production team
44:57led by the director
44:59and producer,
45:01Mohamed Saeed Al-Wafi.
45:03Greetings from me,
45:05Mohamed Saeed Al-Wafi,
45:07our director and producer.
45:09Thank you to you,
45:11our wonderful viewers.