مدي 1 تي في : اتفاق وقف إطلاق النار بين إسرائيل ولبنان وتأثيره على مستقبل الحرب في المنطقة - 02/12/2024
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00:00Assalamu alaykum, dear viewers.
00:07Welcome to a new episode of Masaa Talk.
00:11The sun of the second day has risen over Lebanon.
00:14The sun, its title is calm, after the gunshots have been silenced and the sound of bullets has been muted.
00:18It is the second day of the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel.
00:22In its details, the Lebanese army has returned to spread again in the south of the country, in accordance with the terms of the agreement.
00:28The president of the Lebanese government, Najib Mikati, announced that Lebanon will strengthen the spread of the army in the south
00:33and raise its number to reach 10,000 soldiers alongside the UNIFIL forces.
00:37Mikati at the same time asked Israel to commit to deterrence and withdraw the forces.
00:42As for the political level, the Lebanese parliament has voted in favor of the extension of the duties of the army commander and the leadership of the security services for a full year.
00:50The president of the parliament, Nabih Berri, also called for a meeting to elect a new president of the republic on the 9th of January.
00:58As for Israel, the voices of the critics of the agreement, which took place in the middle of America,
01:04where each of the presidents of the parliament of the settlement of Margueliot and the president of the parliament of the settlement of Jolan,
01:09considered that it was not necessary to vote on this clear and failed agreement.
01:13In return, several countries welcomed the reaching of this agreement, especially the United States of America,
01:18on behalf of President Joe Biden and Iran, through the Foreign Minister.
01:22To talk in more detail about this topic, I would like to welcome our guests.
01:25He is here with me in the studio, Dr. Ihsan Al-Qartiyat, an expert in international relations and research.
01:29Welcome, brother Nufar.
01:31We would also like to welcome those who join us directly from Beirut,
01:35Najib Malab, a military researcher and a strategist.
01:38Good evening, Najib.
01:39Good evening.
01:41The beginning is with you.
01:43In a few hours, on Friday morning, we will reach the third day after the agreement,
01:48the ceasefire agreement.
01:50How is the situation in Lebanon after the re-spreading of the forces?
01:54And also at the field level, is the barrier still firm between Hezbollah and Israel?
02:02Good evening to you and your honored guest and dear viewers.
02:06Welcome.
02:07In fact, of course, this barrier was raised by the two teams,
02:12after the two teams retreated militarily and there was a ceasefire.
02:18As a result, the Israeli enemy is bombing, flying,
02:23and bombing residential areas and residential squares,
02:28and these do not contain weapons.
02:30Therefore, American intervention seems to have been effective and very important,
02:35so that we have reached this situation, which re-implements the 1701 decision
02:42that was issued at the end of the war in 2006 by the International Security Council.
02:50Therefore, the objection by the two teams to the implementation of this decision,
02:55a good implementation, which had not been implemented for a long time,
02:59but what has been renewed is a mechanism for implementation.
03:03There were permanent meetings monthly between the Lebanese team and the Israeli team
03:10under the auspices of the United Nations in its headquarters in Al-Nakoura.
03:14Today, in addition to this number, the French and American are added,
03:19and the president of this committee is the American officer
03:29who will be appointed by the Central American leadership.
03:34Today, after two days of this agreement and its good implementation,
03:39it seems that there is a return to all the people who left the southern region,
03:46returned as well as to the victims, but there were some disturbances in the south,
03:53because Israel, of course, has a presence in the south at close distances,
04:00not far distances, but it was determined that this sector is prohibited from approaching it.
04:05People did not respond to this, so they advanced further,
04:09even to determine its locations, they were fired at,
04:15and it seems that there are also the use of tank shells,
04:20especially in the city of Al-Qiyam and the village of Kfar Qila.
04:27Today, Israel has crossed a certain limit,
04:31and it made an air raid near Saida in the Baysariya region,
04:37and announced that it had destroyed a missile center.
04:40This is considered a breach of ceasefire,
04:43because today, outside this place,
04:46the Lebanese army must be allowed to clean this area,
04:50and increase the army's strength there, without violations.
04:54What happened, yes, are violations.
04:57We are waiting for the formation of a committee,
05:00so that this committee can resolve the violations,
05:03which may be due to a misunderstanding before the ceasefire is implemented.
05:10And indeed, avoiding such violations,
05:13which happened after only one day of the agreement,
05:17the Lebanese army will be re-expanded,
05:20as the president of the government said,
05:23and it will be increased to 10,000,
05:27and other political steps will be taken,
05:30such as the renewal of the Lebanese army,
05:33and the security apparatus,
05:35and today's search for a presidential election in January.
05:38But before that, is this real threat,
05:43coming from an Israeli desire,
05:46and also from Hezbollah,
05:48to end the fighting operations that started
05:51after October 8th,
05:53or on October 8th, specifically,
05:55by Hezbollah, which is the ISNAD front for Gaza,
05:58or are there political calculations,
06:01perhaps for this or that party,
06:03and the agreement must be completed,
06:05and we are waiting for the days to come,
06:07or the near future.
06:09I believe that there is a decline in the understanding
06:12between Iran and the United States of America,
06:15regarding the Lebanese issue.
06:17Iran.
06:18Iran, of course,
06:19between Iran and the United States,
06:21regarding the situation in Lebanon.
06:23In addition to that,
06:24there is an international decision,
06:26with an international decision and international pressure,
06:29including Arab pressure, of course,
06:31to prevent Lebanon from turning into Gaza.
06:33In addition to that,
06:34there is an international decision,
06:36which rejected completely,
06:38the land operation of the Israeli army,
06:40at the level of Lebanon.
06:42At the same time,
06:43it should be admitted,
06:44in addition to what the honorable guest said,
06:46it should be admitted,
06:47that there was indeed,
06:48an invasion of both sides.
06:50There were heavy losses in the ranks of Hezbollah,
06:52it should be admitted,
06:53the assassination of the first-rank leadership,
06:55in addition to the weakening of the organizational structure of the party.
06:59There were also big financial and human losses,
07:02for Israel.
07:04Therefore,
07:05this agreement,
07:06again,
07:07returned to the rules of conflict,
07:09which the war of 2006 imposed,
07:11and the 17-01 decision imposed by the representative,
07:15to end the war,
07:17at the northern level.
07:19Hezbollah returned,
07:20of course,
07:21to northern Litany,
07:22with a depth of 30 kilometers.
07:24At the same time,
07:25the entry of UNIFIL forces,
07:27to this region.
07:29It was admitted,
07:30that the only military presence,
07:32allowed by Hezbollah,
07:34is the Lebanese army,
07:36and UNIFIL forces.
07:38This means that,
07:39at the strategic level,
07:40there was no strategic victory,
07:42neither for Hezbollah,
07:43nor for Israel,
07:44in relation to the war.
07:46Therefore,
07:47it should be admitted,
07:48that it was terminated,
07:49in my opinion,
07:50what is called,
07:51the five squares,
07:52through the reunification of the squares,
07:54through the resumption of Hezbollah,
07:56at the northern level.
07:58At the same time,
07:59in my opinion,
08:00there is a clear Israeli rejection,
08:02of this agreement,
08:03especially from the right,
08:05and the extreme right,
08:06and you pointed out,
08:07at the beginning of this interview,
08:11you pointed out,
08:12of course,
08:13the rejected positions,
08:14in addition to,
08:15the mayor of Koryat Shmona,
08:16who literally says,
08:17that this agreement,
08:18will enable Hezbollah,
08:19to reorganize its ranks,
08:21and will affect the residents,
08:23of occupied northern Palestine.
08:25Even if there were,
08:27the United States,
08:28perhaps,
08:29and the American ambassador,
08:30Mr. Hoekstra,
08:31who followed the file,
08:32from the beginning,
08:33the United States,
08:34would you like,
08:35to extend,
08:36the term of the contract,
08:37to a new Lebanon,
08:38in other words,
08:39to implement,
08:40indeed,
08:4117-01,
08:42as the decision,
08:43at the time of 2006,
08:44insisted on,
08:45and to have,
08:46the weapons,
08:47of the Lebanese army,
08:48to have the borders,
08:49to the south of the Lebanese,
08:50or to the north,
08:51to have the presence,
08:52of the Lebanese military forces,
08:53only,
08:54and at the same time,
08:55to have,
08:56Hezbollah,
08:57to leave,
08:58its weapons,
08:59and to integrate,
09:00this party,
09:01whether,
09:02at the military,
09:03or political level,
09:04within,
09:05a single framework,
09:06which is the Lebanese state.
09:07Does, indeed,
09:08the political class,
09:09today,
09:10in Lebanon,
09:11seek,
09:12the American will,
09:13and also,
09:14the wishes,
09:15of Benjamin Netanyahu,
09:16who was used to,
09:17running forward,
09:18and that,
09:19it must be a new reality,
09:20in Lebanon,
09:21therefore,
09:22the army was extended,
09:23and therefore,
09:24there are,
09:26Yes,
09:27I support,
09:28the approach of,
09:29Dr.
09:30Your honorable guest,
09:31that there is,
09:32international pressure,
09:33and there is,
09:34a kind of,
09:35agreement,
09:36or even,
09:37acceptance,
09:38by the United States,
09:39and Iran,
09:40practically,
09:41to reach,
09:42this ceasefire.
09:43But,
09:44today,
09:45this issue,
09:46not only,
09:47has a military,
09:48security,
09:49division,
09:50in the presence,
09:51of the Lebanese army,
09:52alone,
09:53with the international,
09:54security,
09:55division,
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09:57of the Lebanese army,
09:58alone,
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10:04alone,
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