Jordan Cope, a leading Middle East and Counter-Terrorism expert, speaks exclusively to Oneindia’s Pankaj Mishra on the ongoing Syrian conflict and its broader implications. From the future of counter-terrorism post-Syria crisis to the influence of ISIS and the strategic roles of global powers like the US and Russia, Cope delves into the dynamics of regional rivalries and the rise of non-state actors. His insights shed light on how these factors shape Syria’s stability and the Middle East's geopolitical future.
#SyriaCrisis, #CounterTerrorism, #MiddleEast, #ISISImpact, #GlobalPowers
Also Read
India's New Counter-Terrorism Policy: Amit Shah Announces Upcoming Strategy :: https://www.oneindia.com/india/indias-new-counter-terrorism-policy-amit-shah-announces-upcoming-strategy-011-3980875.html
EAM Jaishankar Calls For Decisive Action: Lessons From The 26/11 Mumbai Attacks :: https://www.oneindia.com/india/eam-jaishankar-calls-for-decisive-action-lessons-from-the-26-11-mumbai-attacks-3971607.html
INDIA Bloc Pledges to Fortify Counter-Terrorism Measures Post-Elections :: https://www.oneindia.com/india/india-bloc-commits-to-strengthen-counter-terrorism-post-elections-011-3817281.html
~PR.282~ED.102~HT.334~
#SyriaCrisis, #CounterTerrorism, #MiddleEast, #ISISImpact, #GlobalPowers
Also Read
India's New Counter-Terrorism Policy: Amit Shah Announces Upcoming Strategy :: https://www.oneindia.com/india/indias-new-counter-terrorism-policy-amit-shah-announces-upcoming-strategy-011-3980875.html
EAM Jaishankar Calls For Decisive Action: Lessons From The 26/11 Mumbai Attacks :: https://www.oneindia.com/india/eam-jaishankar-calls-for-decisive-action-lessons-from-the-26-11-mumbai-attacks-3971607.html
INDIA Bloc Pledges to Fortify Counter-Terrorism Measures Post-Elections :: https://www.oneindia.com/india/india-bloc-commits-to-strengthen-counter-terrorism-post-elections-011-3817281.html
~PR.282~ED.102~HT.334~
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00In Syria, it seems that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the successor of Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda,
00:09ultimately is calling the shots in terms of the Islamism there.
00:13The US right now seems to be kind of staying out of this, shunning Assad.
00:18But it could be a better ally for the Kurds, who could face some serious obstacles in the future.
00:24The US has been complicated. On one hand, it seems to support the rebels right now,
00:29despite the rebels being led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who has a $10 million,
00:37not per se, bounty, but reward at least for information.
00:41Hello and welcome to this yet new, brand new episode on One India, where we discuss the
00:47scenarios emanating from the exit of Bashar al-Assad from Syria. And now what happens next?
00:54What is the next road ahead for Syria?
00:57And to discuss that further, we are joined by Jordan Cope, Middle East and counterterrorism
01:02expert, originally from Texas in the United States, but as of now, joining us from Erfurt
01:08in Germany. Jordan, thank you so much for taking time out for One India.
01:12Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here today.
01:14Right. Jordan, straightaway getting into the thick of the things here. When we talk about
01:18Syria, when we talk about Iraq, there's one name that comes to our mind, and that is ISIS.
01:23Now that the quote unquote regime is gone, the Assad regime is gone, the rebels have taken over,
01:30ISIS remnants are still there in Syria. And how does their presence continue to impact
01:36the region's stability or instability, if I may say so? And what strategies do you think
01:41that the international community must adopt to neutralise this threat effectively?
01:47So while ISIS isn't leading the current opposition to the Syrian National Army,
01:53Hayat Tahrir al-Shamis, which has some affiliations to ISIS and certainly to al-Qaeda,
02:00but that's not to dismiss the fact that ISIS fighters have embedded within the Syrian rebels,
02:07which recently toppled the Assad regime. So it's important to understand that while ISIS
02:13certainly has some remnants remaining, they're not so much the threat that they used to be.
02:19In recent years, ISIS has actually kind of fostered a presence in some African hot spots,
02:26conducting operations between multi-national border regions, exploiting natural resources
02:33there and kind of regaining some ground. In Syria, it seems that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,
02:39the successor of Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaeda, ultimately is calling the shots in
02:47terms of the Islamism there. It should be noted that the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
02:53did previously have strong affiliations to ISIS and rose through the ranks there. So it remains
02:59yet to be determined how ISIS will resurge in Syria and in Iraq. But certainly a movement that
03:07has been designated as a terrorist group in part of the world has power.
03:14Absolutely, and goes without any saying there. When it comes to the bigger picture, Jordan,
03:20and we throw the United States into the whole scheme of things, how do you assess the effectiveness
03:27of the US current policies in Syria, particularly in support of the Kurdish groups that are there,
03:35and in the past, a very strategic ambiguity, I would say, towards Assad's regime. It was never
03:41very clear which side the US is on. Yeah, so it should be noted that the US
03:47unfortunately has to a degree betrayed the Kurds at the same time as it has supported them. The
03:53Kurds remain some of our greatest allies in northern Syria. The SDF since 2015 has effectively
04:01secured a good part of the northern parts of Syria and has guaranteed some sort of security.
04:09That being said, one of the biggest backers in this conflict is also a NATO ally, and that is
04:14Turkey, which the US has complicated relations with. The US hopes that it doesn't sway towards
04:19Russia. But the US is also concerned about Turkey's intervention into the area, its ethnic
04:25displacement of Kurds, shamefully. And Turkey has ultimately seized this conflict and has backed
04:32Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and has created a new region, sphere of regional influence for itself.
04:41It should be mentioned that Qatar has also backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkey throughout the
04:47Syrian civil war allowed ISIS fighters and financiers to seek safe haven near its border.
04:53If I recall properly, I think Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was actually killed quite near the Turkish border.
04:59Right. And so in regards to US policy, it's been a bit confusing. Assad did offer some sort of
05:04stability, albeit the civil war, very tragic, hundreds of thousands of lives lost. But the US
05:12has been complicated. On one hand, it seems to support the rebels right now, despite the rebels
05:18being led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who has a $10 million, not per se bounty, but reward at
05:27least for information regarding either his arrest or termination. And so the US right now seems to
05:34be kind of staying out of this, shunning Assad. But it could be a better ally for the Kurds who
05:41could face some serious obstacles in the future. Right. Absolutely. The local dynamics there are
05:49changing thick and fast as we speak. And the ground reports are also very disturbing at times
05:55when it comes to who owns what, that kind of scenario is going down there.
06:02Nonetheless, Bashar al-Assad has now moved on to Russia. Russia has also made it clear.
06:08Kremlin has given the statement. Russia has had a lot of political and business,
06:15military interest in Syria. Investments have been there for quite some time now.
06:21How do you think that with Assad leaving for Russia, the long-term goals here that Russia
06:29might have had in Syria, do they create an imbalance in order to create stability in Syria?
06:38Or could it be a win-win situation for the Syrians? I think it's too early to tell right now.
06:44It seems that Russian ships have retreated. Iran previously had a port in Latakia.
06:50It was quite a major port in terms of Russian strategic interest being its, if I recall,
06:56its only port on the Mediterranean. That being said, it's too early to tell. Abu Muhammad al-Jolani
07:03and Hayat Tahrir Hashem seem to be feigning a more tolerant attitude for now, encouraging foreign
07:11ambassadors and consulates to stay and to give amnesty to Assad's former soldiers and to other
07:19fighters. But it's too early to tell. I mean, we've seen similar tactics in terms of feigning
07:25moderacy from the Taliban, and certainly that did not pan out well. And I'm not optimistic about how
07:31Hayat Tahrir Hashem will behave in the future. And so it is too early to tell. It is important
07:37to note that Russia is not the only one to lose here. Iran is a big loser in this current conflict.
07:44Assyria has effectively divided the Shiite Islamist crescent, which Iran has hoped to
07:51use to eventually attack Israel from. That crescent connected Iran to Iraq, to Syria, to Lebanon.
07:58And now Hezbollah, which was dealt serious losses in the war against, in the war it initiated
08:04effectively against Israel, nowadays Hezbollah is going to be cut off from that Iranian axis
08:11and that supply line. And so, yeah, Iran has lost a big Shiite Islamist ally in Bashar al-Assad and
08:19Alawi. I am concerned for the future of the Alawi people as an ethnic group in Syria. It's all a bit
08:27too early to tell, but there are certainly some clear losers being Iran, being Russia, some winners
08:34being Turkey and Qatar, and definitely some uncertainties for countries such as Israel
08:41and for ethnic groups like the Kurds and other Syrian minorities. Right. Mentioning about minorities,
08:47I remember 2015 was the time when Syrian refugees were dotting the streets of Istanbul and it was
08:55quite a scenario there, how even the local, you know, Turkish people wanted them out.
09:04How does it impact Turkey, being the closest of the neighbors there, has seen the brunt earlier
09:10also of minority movement there. Do you believe that for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, there are tough
09:16days ahead, at least diplomatically? It will certainly be interesting. I think there's a good
09:22chance that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham might have been ignited a bit by Turkey behind the scenes
09:28because of breakdowns and talks between Assad and Erdogan in terms of rapprochement, in terms of
09:35determining what would happen to the three to four million Syrian migrants in Turkey that have become
09:40a headache for the AKP, who have lost, certainly had lost in recent elections and more local
09:48elections, more than they would have liked to. And so the three to four million migrants, Syrian
09:54migrants, it was Turkey's hope to eventually restore them to northern Syria, which is why it
09:59invaded and has since occupied parts of northern Syria. And so Turkey is definitely not the most
10:06pleasant place to be a minority and especially being a Kurd. And so it definitely is a concerning
10:14time to see what will happen with all those migrants. Hopefully, they will be able to
10:19return safely to northern Syria or to Syria alone in the future. But for Turkey, which now has an
10:27excuse to kind of send those migrants home, and maybe even as well for some European nations who
10:35are tired of issues pertaining to migrants throughout the EU. So it's a situation yet to
10:44be seen what will happen. But it definitely seems that the refugee status of some of these migrants
10:50might no longer apply. Indeed, we'll have to wait and watch Jordan. We hope that peace and
10:58tranquility prevails in that particular region and the way things are shaping up geopolitically,
11:03diplomatically. Well, every passing day, every passing hour needs to be treaded very carefully.
11:11Thank you so much, Jordan Cope there, a Middle East and counter-terrorism expert
11:16joining us all the way from Germany. Thank you, Jordan. We would like to host you more on One
11:22India. Thank you so much for taking time out. A pleasure. Thank you as always for having me.
11:27Don't miss out. Log on to OneIndia.com for more updates.