مدي 1 تي في : سيناريوهات الانتقال السياسي في سوريا بعد سقوط نظام الأسد - 09/12/2024
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00:00Welcome, our viewers, to today's edition of your news, we dedicate it to the latest developments
00:18in the Syrian scene following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime.
00:24The Syrians are looking forward to the details of the next phase, and they hope to move to
00:29a third phase of power, a better tomorrow, and major challenges that are now and later
00:37in the relationship with the neighbors and with a number of capitals of the world.
00:43Following this topic, we are happy to have with us here in the studio Mr. Omar Yeldareem,
00:50the journalist.
00:51Welcome.
00:54And from Cairo, we have Dr. Hisham Al-Halabi, a member of the board of the Military Academy
01:01for Advanced and Strategic Studies.
01:04Welcome, sir.
01:06Welcome to Bahrain and to your guests.
01:10Welcome.
01:11We will be joined later by our viewers in the second part.
01:14All of them are from Amid Rukn Maroun Khreish from Beirut, the Lebanese capital, and from
01:20the Russian capital, Moscow.
01:22We will be joined later by the academic and political analyst, Rami Qalyoubi.
01:28I will start with my guest in the studio, Mr. Omar Yeldareem.
01:34How can we predict what will happen in the last two days since the announcement, of course,
01:42of the armed opposition to enter Damascus and overthrow Bashar al-Assad's regime?
01:48Welcome.
01:51In fact, the fall of the regime is a surprise, a sign, which started in a battle 11 days ago.
01:56And in fact, it was not a war as much as it was a surrender of the regime to the opposing
02:02forces or, let's say, the countries that were supporting the regime represented by Russia
02:07and Iran, to the opposing forces, who entered and managed the scene well and far from blood
02:15or wars.
02:18Yes, it was expected that there would be a big clash when Damascus or Homs entered, but things went very smoothly.
02:27Even now, President Assad's ministers have ordered the current government to wait for another political alternative.
02:38The airports, public properties, banks, everything was done in a very organized and professional way.
02:45Doesn't this mean that things were planned and that there were agreements on all the details abroad?
02:55When we say that there was a surprise, was it really a surprise?
03:01In this idealistic way?
03:03Yes, it was a surprise for us, but what is happening behind the scenes in the major countries,
03:10such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States, things are not surprising.
03:14There is a permanent agreement. What is the nature of this agreement? What is its future?
03:18What is the paid price?
03:20What is the paid alternative price?
03:22There are many questions that we are waiting for answers to.
03:25How could this opposition, the armed factions, this organization, and this great logistical support,
03:31be able to remove the regime?
03:34It was 13 years ago.
03:36In some stages, it was much stronger than it is today.
03:40It is much weaker than it is today.
03:42So why did it succeed today?
03:44There is also the logic that governs the scene.
03:46The logic of international media coverage, dealing with embassies, diplomatic missions.
03:51Whoever puts down his gun is safe.
03:53There were no signs of killing.
03:55Until recently, there were high orders not to expose any supporters of the previous regime.
04:02Even journalists, journalists, actors, and so on.
04:05The scene is still going on in a very smart way.
04:08This confirms that things are organized.
04:11A written scenario.
04:13Yes, a written scenario.
04:15But the eyes now go to the Assad regime.
04:19It is not a simple incident.
04:21This incident could be bigger than the 7th of October incident.
04:26We used to think that it changed the face of the Middle East.
04:29Indeed.
04:30All these repercussions are what would have happened if not for the 7th of October incident in 2023.
04:39These repercussions are still today.
04:42Because of the Iranian forces and the defeat of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
04:47And the defeat of the Iranian militias.
04:49All of them were destroyed.
04:51Because of the Israeli air strikes last year in Syria.
04:54I will return to you.
04:56I will go to my guest in Cairo, Dr. Hisham Al-Halabi.
05:00Dr. Hisham, how do you react to what happened?
05:05To what happened?
05:10In your opinion, when the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Irakji said that he met Bashar Al-Assad.
05:19And Bashar Al-Assad was surprised by what happened.
05:22And how the Syrian army surrendered the city or the province of Telwa.
05:28When you say, Moscow in its turn, that it was surprised.
05:33And you did not expect what happened in that direction.
05:38Who was truly surprised?
05:42The signs of the fall of the regime were clear.
05:47But the speed at which it fell may be surprising.
05:51There was a terrorist wave that happened before that.
05:56The terrorist wave was when the Syrian regime faced it.
06:00There was very strong assistance from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.
06:06When this movement happened, neither Russia, Iran, or Hezbollah stood by the regime.
06:16The Syrian army was in a very weak position to face this form of movement.
06:25Therefore, the signs were clear.
06:28But the point of surprise was the speed at which these groups advanced.
06:34This is a painful scene for our brothers in Syria.
06:42But there are some signs that are problematic.
06:46Such as the absence of killing operations or taking prisoners from armed groups.
06:51I think this is a problem.
06:54Do you think that there are signs of a third movement of this regime?
07:01The details seem to be clear and even reassuring for the Syrian people.
07:07We are talking about two days.
07:12This is a very important point.
07:15The positive signs in the scene are that there are no killing operations or taking prisoners from armed groups.
07:22Another important point is that the name of the prime minister, Mohammad Al-Bashir, was named.
07:30We did not expect that he would be named so quickly.
07:35Another sign is that the previous government continued to influence the actions until the new government was handed over.
07:45I think this is a positive sign.
07:49The negative sign that should be strengthened in the near future is the security sign.
07:59The security situation inside the country is a very important point.
08:03The security situation inside the country is very important because the army and the police have had a negative impact.
08:08Therefore, strengthening the security situation will be the basis for a successful transitional phase.
08:13A transitional phase without a security situation and full control over the borders.
08:18Also, control over the widespread of weapons in the hands of the citizens.
08:24These are the points that we see if the government starts the security situation.
08:29We will discuss this later, Mr. Rami Al-Qaliouby.
08:34We will discuss this later, Mr. Hisham Al-Halaby.
08:39We will discuss this later, Mr. Hisham Al-Halaby.
08:43We will discuss this later, Mr. Hisham Al-Halaby.
08:46We will discuss this later, Mr. Omar Yeldareem.
08:48We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
08:55We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
08:58We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:01We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:04We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:07We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:10We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:13We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:16We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:19We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:22We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:25We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:28We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:31We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:34We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:37We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:40We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:43We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:46We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:49We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:52We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:55We will talk about the commissioning of Mohammad Al-Bashir to form a new government that will manage the transitional phase.
09:58We have seen the images of the humanitarian detentions.
10:01It is not an easy thing for the people to go back to this dictatorship.
10:04It is not an easy thing for the people to go back to this dictatorship.
10:07It is not an easy thing for the people to go back to this dictatorship.
10:10We will talk about what happened after the fall of the regime.
10:13The fall of the regime, the management of the military operations that started 11 or 12 days ago,
10:16The fall of the regime, the management of the military operations that started 11 or 12 days ago,
10:19in the liberation of the areas under the Assad regime, was controlled.
10:22in the liberation of the areas under the Assad regime, was controlled.
10:25There were very precise and precise plans to secure the country and to control the country after the fall of the Assad regime.
10:28There were very precise and precise plans to secure the country and to control the country after the fall of the Assad regime.
10:31There were very precise and precise plans to secure the country and to control the country after the fall of the Assad regime.
10:34There were very precise and precise plans to secure the country and to control the country after the fall of the Assad regime.
10:37Therefore, everything is going well so far.
10:40The forces that liberated the cities and the fall of the regime promised,
10:43The forces that liberated the cities and the fall of the regime promised,
10:46The forces that liberated the cities and the fall of the regime promised,
10:49and we still hear and notice the implementation of this decision,
10:52that these military forces will never interfere in political or military affairs.
10:55that these military forces will never interfere in political or military affairs.
10:58These factions will be resolved, according to the promises that have been made so far,
11:01These factions will be resolved, according to the promises that have been made so far,
11:04that these factions will be resolved,
11:07or integrated, as has happened in many countries, to be merged into the army.
11:10or integrated, as has happened in many countries, to be merged into the army.
11:13Will it be easy? Is there a privacy for the Syrian scene?
11:16Will it be easy? Is there a privacy for the Syrian scene?
11:19If there is a real fear in the internal Syrian scene,
11:22If there is a real fear in the internal Syrian scene,
11:25I think that these armed groups are running the scene professionally,
11:28I think that these armed groups are running the scene professionally,
11:31because there was advanced Western support,
11:34so the result was this professionalism.
11:37And there was one bet, which was the fall of the Assad regime.
11:40Now, the real problem may begin after the fall of the Assad regime.
11:43Now, the real problem may begin after the fall of the Assad regime.
11:46There are tens or hundreds of thousands of armed factions,
11:49and the Liberation of Damascus faction includes about 40 armed factions,
11:52and the Liberation of Damascus faction includes about 40 armed factions,
11:55and they are all radical Islamic factions,
11:58and many of them were in the past in a combative way.
12:01and many of them were in the past in a combative way.
12:04It is still on the terrorist list.
12:07Yes, and of course, it is classified as a terrorist on the international and regional level.
12:10Yes, and of course, it is classified as a terrorist on the international and regional level.
12:13So, I think that if this point is not overcome,
12:16So, I think that if this point is not overcome,
12:19then there will be a smooth transition in Syria.
12:22Let me ask the same question to my guest, Dr. Hisham Al-Halabi.
12:25Let me ask the same question to my guest, Dr. Hisham Al-Halabi.
12:28The question is, of course, in your first interview, you raised this point.
12:31Will it be easy for the armed opposition factions to be eliminated,
12:34Will it be easy for the armed opposition factions to be eliminated,
12:37and to join and adopt the regiminal army logic
12:40and to join and adopt the regiminal army logic
12:43which protects a united country?
12:46What is the nature of the challenges in Syria?
12:49What is the nature of the challenges in Syria?
12:52Maybe sooner or later?
12:55Let me tell you about the security challenges, because they are very important.
12:58First, the armed factions, there is a large faction,
13:01like the Legion of Hisham, under his authority,
13:04there are many factions, and there are other factions, like Qassad and his opponents.
13:07The purpose of these factions is the overthrow of the regime, and will there be other sub-purposes
13:18for each of these factions, especially since there are factions that are made up of these
13:23larger factions, and all of them have weapons.
13:26Therefore, the internal security situation, will there be an agreement between all these
13:33smaller and larger factions in the near future?
13:37There are two scenarios.
13:39This agreement may or may not exist, even by a percentage.
13:43The situation is still unclear as to what the agreement between the factions is.
13:49As much as there is agreement, as much as the security situation is expected and will be
13:54agreed upon, it is still unclear as to what the agreement between the factions is.
13:58We should not deny a very important point, the regional situation and its interference
14:02in the Syrian situation.
14:04This is in violation of the security situation.
14:06Israel is attacking Syria and attacking the air defense systems and armament, claiming
14:10that there are chemical weapons.
14:12Therefore, there is interference from the regional forces in favor of the internal forces,
14:17and trying to convince them that they are heading towards other directions and goals.
14:22This is a serious matter.
14:24There is also interference from international forces.
14:26We should not deny that there is American interference in favor of certain forces, and
14:30there are American soldiers inside Syria.
14:35There are also two Russian bases inside Syria.
14:39Therefore, there are three main circles, the internal circle, the regional circle, and
14:45the international circle.
14:47The interaction of the three circles together affects the negative and positive aspects of
14:52the security situation.
14:54The scenario is not clear.
14:56But let me say an important point.
14:58As much as the Syrian internal circle and these groups understand the three circles,
15:04they should avoid their negativities and succeed in the transitional phase.
15:08This is what we hope for.
15:11We will continue with the talk about Syria's future.
15:17Syria is safe and united.
15:20Mr. Omar Yaldarim, it is the demand of the Syrians.
15:24As much as they are happy with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime,
15:27as much as the fears grow day after day,
15:31there were some videos and videos of a group of separatists who remained limited,
15:39but did not remain an exception in the scene.
15:42The United Nations.
15:44There is a meeting scheduled for the International Security Council with a call from Russia.
15:49What role can we imagine and expect for the United Nations in this transition from Bashar al-Assad's regime to the next?
15:58Things are similar to a great extent.
16:01What determines the coming period in Syria is the countries that have a big hand in Syria.
16:09The scenarios in many countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq are not far from the scene.
16:18But this is what determines the reality, not the factions as determined by the countries that support it.
16:23There are regional and international countries.
16:25We give examples of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, in addition to the United States and Israel.
16:32They are the ones who determine the coming period in Syria.
16:37Unfortunately, we say this.
16:39The other thing is to answer your question.
16:44What are the agreements that have been made in secret?
16:47This question has not been asked so far.
16:49What is the future of the military bases in the coastal cities?
16:53There is an agreement in the port of the coast to Russia.
16:56This port is very important to it.
16:57The port of the Mediterranean.
16:58It refers to the Mediterranean.
17:00Will it be withdrawn from it?
17:02Russia has warned of any interference in its bases.
17:05Interference will not be believed in.
17:08But what is the nature of the agreement that has been made?
17:10Is it to say, take the port and take Tartus,
17:13in exchange for providing the appropriate air support for the fall of Assad?
17:20This may be the agreement.
17:21So far, things are still clear to a large extent in this context.
17:27As you know, the Turkish intervention is also controlled in northern Syria.
17:35This is also an important point.
17:37Turkey has said that it has opened a dialogue,
17:40and that the channels of communication between it and the armed opposition forces
17:47are open even before the fall of the Assad regime.
17:55And it is also looking for all the details related to the Assad regime.
18:00Yes, and the opposition is also in contact with all diplomatic missions abroad,
18:05and also in contact with the foreign ministries of the countries.
18:09For example, we can say that the former regime has been replaced by the new regime of Syria,
18:14the world of revolution, now in Moscow.
18:16This indicates that there is good diplomatic communication,
18:19and it is done smoothly with even the opposing countries.
18:22Of course, I don't think that Iran will have any role,
18:25even as a diplomatic mission, or any existence.
18:27Iran is being dealt with in Syria as a country that has sent its militias,
18:32and unfortunately, it has taken a great toll on the Syrian blood.
18:35So, I think this matter will be left for years.
18:39But as I told you, many of the answers or the coming days
18:44will reveal the nature of the agreements that were made behind the scenes.
18:48We are getting more excited than we are analyzing,
18:51because the real data is disappearing.
18:55Again, I go to my guest in Cairo, Dr. Hisham Al-Halabi.
19:00In your role, how do you expect the relations with neighbors to be?
19:07Of course, we are talking about the relationship with Turkey.
19:12My guest in the studio considered that the existence of Iran
19:16and the relationship between Damascus and Tehran
19:19has been overturned, as was the case in the time of Assad.
19:29Of course, there is a problem with the neighboring countries,
19:31because the neighboring countries had a relationship with the previous regime,
19:34as you mentioned, between Iran and Hezbollah,
19:38with the previous regime.
19:40There is a relationship with Russia.
19:43Will these relations be accepted by the new regime or the new form?
19:48There is also a relationship with Turkey and the Israeli intervention.
19:53This issue needs a professional strategic vision.
19:57It is not based on the vision of individuals or groups.
20:02It needs a group that analyzes the situation of the region and the state
20:06with great professionalism and can deal with all these contradictions.
20:10To deal with these contradictions,
20:13at least to neutralize them or to reduce their negative impact,
20:17because each country has its own agenda internally.
20:20For example, will the US accept the Russian invasion of Syria with its bases?
20:27This is an important point.
20:29This is a golden opportunity to expel Russia from Syria.
20:33The many contradictions in the regional and international scene
20:37and their impact internally need a professional strategic group
20:42to deal with these contradictions and to neutralize the transitional phase.
20:46At least, as long as there is this strategic vision from the inside
20:51and there is a semblance of agreement or an acceptable agreement
20:55between the armed groups that are in control
20:58and the Syrians in their different directions,
21:01including the remnants of the previous regime.
21:04The Syrian conflict will be played out in a big way.
21:07This is the problem and the dilemma in the next phase.
21:12It is based on the ability and professionalism of the interim government
21:19to deal with these contradictions.
21:21I think they need assistance or a vision.
21:25They may turn to consultants.
21:28This is not a shame at all.
21:30I think that there is a lack of experience in dealing with these contradictions.
21:35In addition to this idea, you mentioned the lack of experience
21:40and that they may need a special consultant in the coming weeks and months.
21:47The biggest security challenge is also in the relationship with Israel.
21:53Israel has initiated the occupation of large areas of the Golan
21:59and the 1974 agreement was violated.
22:03Do you expect that the new regime in Russia will not react?
22:18Let me just make one point.
22:22These consultants may be Syrians.
22:25From the inside.
22:27As long as they are from the inside, the rulers are also from the inside.
22:31There is a sensitivity.
22:33The rulers from the inside must appear immediately.
22:36Of course, Russia does not want to be involved again in Syria in any way,
22:44because it is very busy in the field of Ukrainian operations.
22:48The previous period was difficult,
22:50especially with the takeover of power by President Trump in January.
22:53Therefore, Russia will intervene in favor of Syria in the coming period,
22:59not against Israel.
23:01Therefore, there will be a great security challenge for the group that will be managed
23:06in the transitional phase.
23:08Israel will have a great opportunity to occupy more land.
23:12There are chemical weapons, insurance, etc.
23:18It has a large number of armed forces.
23:22On the other hand, we see the weakness of the Syrian army
23:26and these groups are not able to withstand the Israeli strikes.
23:31We see that there will be, unfortunately,
23:35an Israeli movement in favor of Israel and the occupation of more land.
23:43Do you expect the same thing, Mr. Omar Yeldareem,
23:47that Israel did not do in the past few days?
23:52Of course, it is about the occupation of large lands from Syrian soil.
24:00How will it be possible?
24:03As is unusual,
24:07the United States and Israel are fighting against the armed opposition,
24:12knowing that it is a terrorist organization.
24:15Israel and the United States realize the danger it poses to the security of Israel.
24:19This is the first point.
24:21The second point is that this fight is coming to an end.
24:25We do not forget that you are terrorist parties and factions,
24:29as stated by Netanyahu or Biden yesterday.
24:32The third point, due to the speed of events,
24:35is that the Israeli forces have entered the Quneitra,
24:39which is a Syrian region outside the agreement.
24:42It has been entered since 1975 for the first time.
24:46This scenario may be the closest one.
24:50Israel, as a state, is always trying to expand its territory.
24:55In 2025, it is expected to announce the annexation of Daffa and Jerusalem,
25:02as well as the transfer of power to Israel.
25:05In addition, northern Gaza has been occupied,
25:09and the southern areas of Lebanon are far from being liberated,
25:13especially since there is no resistance force.
25:16The Hezbollah is over.
25:18Therefore, the Quneitra and the occupied Syrian Jolan areas,
25:22which were under international law,
25:25and today are no longer occupied,
25:27after Trump recognized Israel's sovereignty over the Jolan,
25:30will not enter the Quneitra.
25:32I think this is certain.
25:34Do you think the regime will stop?
25:37It will stop,
25:39because the Syrian army will not be able to stand on its feet again 20 or 30 years from now,
25:45even if it collapses.
25:48We have seen the pictures of planes and airports.
25:51We are surprised by these pictures of planes and airports,
25:54as if they are from World War II.
25:56Israel and the United States directed more than 100 air raids yesterday,
26:03to what is left of any ammunition,
26:05such as missiles or anti-aircraft guns.
26:07We are talking about an army to zero.
26:11In the same point,
26:13I would like to thank my guest in the first part,
26:16Dr. Hisham Al-Halabi,
26:18who is a flight consultant at the Military Academy for Advanced Studies and Strategic Studies.
26:24He was with us from Cairo.
26:26I would like to welcome my two guests to the second part of the interview.
26:34We will have a short break.
26:38Please stay with us.