Ask The Experts sits down with the director of the National Hurricane Center, Michael Brennan to talk about hurricane season and highlight hurricane safety.
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00:00And welcome to AccuWeather's Ask the Experts, I'm Bernie Raynaud.
00:17We go beyond the forecast to give you the how and the why on all of the cool and interesting
00:22stuff you've wondered about and wanted to ask in weather, space, and science.
00:28With more weather extremes expected in our changing climate, it's crucial that weather
00:33organizations work together for everyone's safety, especially during hurricane season.
00:40Joining me now is the Director of the National Hurricane Center, Dr. Michael Brennan, along
00:45with Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather's Chief Meteorologist.
00:49Good to see you both.
00:52And Mike, thank you for joining us.
00:54You've just marked your first year as the Director of the National Hurricane Center.
00:58I'm sure it's flown by just like that.
01:01What has been your focus and what has surprised you since you've taken the helm?
01:06Yeah, thanks.
01:07It's great to be with you all.
01:08You know, I think the focus is always on communicating the hazards.
01:12That's where we've tried to be laser focused here at the Hurricane Center and working with
01:15our partners throughout the weather enterprise, including you all at AccuWeather, to get information
01:20to people about the hazards they face from tropical storms and hurricanes.
01:23I mean, the forecast, we're always working to improve that, the track, the intensity,
01:27the structure.
01:28But where it really gets to is, especially those water hazards, storm surge, and heavy
01:31rainfall that have the potential to cause them the biggest loss of life.
01:35That's where we're focused.
01:36I think in terms of surprises, you know, every season has its unique challenges.
01:40We try to learn something every year and take that forward.
01:43And Mike, everybody has a story.
01:44I mean, certainly me.
01:45I came from northeastern Pennsylvania.
01:48That I am all about nor'easters.
01:50That's what's gotten me, that got me interested in the weather.
01:54What's your story?
01:55Yeah, I grew up in southwest Virginia, in Roanoke, along the Blue Ridge Parkway there.
02:00So kind of typical mid-latitude weather, climate.
02:03I remember snow storms, heavy rainfall, a really flash flood prone area.
02:08I remember in 1985, November, my grandmother lost her home in a flood that was actually
02:13associated with the remnants of a tropical storm that made landfall along the Gulf Coast.
02:17I was seven when that happened.
02:18It made a pretty big impression on me as a young kid.
02:21And I had that passion and interest in weather all the way through school and took that into
02:25a career.
02:26So I think like most meteorologists, I was really interested from a very early age.
02:30And certainly every director can put their stamp on the Hurricane Center.
02:36What are your goals moving forward with the National Hurricane Center?
02:40Yeah, I think I've got a couple.
02:42I think one of the big ones is to increase our service equity and bring the same level
02:48of products and services that we have in the United States to all of our international
02:52customers and partners from Mexico and Central America, throughout the Caribbean, and across
02:58our entire area of responsibility.
03:00We really lack in some of the information we're able to provide for hazards like storm
03:04surge and heavy rainfall in those areas, but we are slowly starting to build out those
03:08capabilities.
03:09I think the other thing is to start to incorporate more real-time forecast uncertainty into our
03:14probabilistic products, things like probabilistic storm surge, wind speed probabilities.
03:19Those are largely driven by climatological error statistics still, and we really need
03:23to start incorporating that real-time uncertainty through something like a hurricane model ensemble
03:28system that will allow us to represent the situational uncertainty.
03:31And then the final focus has just got to be on communication.
03:34I mean, we're in an era now where the forecasts are generally good enough to get people to
03:39take the right actions if they understand the risk that's posed to them and if they
03:43understand what they need to do.
03:45So I think those are the sort of three things I'm laser-focused on at this point.
03:49And with that, John, you just heard Dr. Brennan talking about storm surge and flooding.
03:54How much more concerning are the water impacts from hurricanes compared to wind?
03:59How does the Exclusive AccuWeather impact scale for hurricanes communicate to threats
04:05like storm surge and flooding rain?
04:07Those water impacts are so dangerous, and we look at all the different risks that a
04:13hurricane or tropical storm can bring to an area.
04:16Most people tend to associate the wind as the biggest threat.
04:20But when you look at the statistics, almost 90 percent of the direct fatalities from tropical
04:25storms and hurricanes are as a result of water impacts, that storm surge flooding or inland
04:31flooding sometimes hundreds of miles away from the coast.
04:34So those water impacts are really critical.
04:37That's why we developed here at AccuWeather the Exclusive AccuWeather Real Impact Scale
04:41for Hurricanes, which takes into account, of course, the wind, but also the risks from
04:46coastal inundation and storm surge, inland flooding, and the total damage and economic
04:51loss.
04:52It's the most holistic way to look at a tropical storm or hurricane's potential impact to give
04:58people the best decisions so they can make the best decisions in terms of how they're
05:04going to prepare and understand the holistic picture of the risk far beyond just the wind.
05:10That's so important.
05:11And Mike, since hurricanes do develop over the ocean, often sometimes some distance from
05:16land, there's usually more time for warnings than, let's say, a tornado.
05:21When a hurricane warning is issued, what should people do?
05:24Well, a warning means that we're expecting or there's enough risk of hurricane conditions
05:29or maybe storm surge inundation in an area that people need to put their action plan
05:33into place.
05:34That's the time if you're going to stay in your home, you're going to board up your home,
05:37put up your shutters, shelter in place, or if you're asked to evacuate by your local
05:41officials, that just reinforces that evacuation decision.
05:44But the key there is that you want to have that plan in place before we ever get to a
05:48hurricane watch or storm surge watch or warning so that you're not putting that plan together
05:53now.
05:54You know where you're going to go.
05:55You know if you might be asked to leave your home.
05:56You get all your supplies ready so that as you come into the hurricane season, you're
06:00ready to put that plan into action quickly.
06:02We usually issue those warnings with about 36 hours of lead time before the onset of
06:06some sort of hazardous conditions, whether that's wind or storm surge inundation.
06:10So there's enough time to sort of get moving, but not a lot of time to sort of come up with
06:15a whole plan and try to figure it all out in that last few hours.
06:18All right.
06:19We have our first viewer question.
06:20It comes from Josh in Louisiana.
06:23Josh writes, I live in a hurricane prone zone.
06:26What can I do when a hurricane is headed in my direction?
06:29We have about a minute each.
06:30I'm going to start with you, Dr. Brennan.
06:33What's your answer to that question?
06:35Well, again, like I just mentioned, you want to know what your risk is now.
06:39Find out first if you live in a storm surge evacuation zone and that you might be asked
06:43to leave your home because that's going to form the basis of your entire preparedness
06:46plan.
06:47You're going to need to know how you're going to get to a shelter, where you're going to
06:49go.
06:51Make sure you hopefully can travel tens of miles, not hundreds of miles to get out of
06:55that storm surge evacuation zone and get to a safe location.
06:58If you live in a place where you're going to ride the storm out in your home, make sure
07:01you have shutters.
07:02Make sure you have all of your supplies ready, several days of food, water, batteries, medicine,
07:08any other materials or goods you're going to need to survive several days on your own.
07:12And then the final part of that is check on your friends, your neighbors, your relatives,
07:15people who might need extra help getting ready for a storm or putting their plan into action
07:20and make sure you have that ready to go well in advance of a storm approaching your area.
07:24John, you heard Dr. Brennan.
07:27What can you add to that?
07:28Is there anything else that you can think of to help someone that's in a zone like that?
07:32Well, that's all great advice and knowing that plan is so important in advance.
07:37I would also add that if you're new to an area, it's especially important for you to
07:41understand those storm surge evacuation zones and other procedures.
07:45Local emergency managers, firefighters, police officers would be happy to help you understand
07:50that better.
07:51And you'd want to know about two different situations.
07:55What kind of a plan you would need to do if you're going to be able to stay in your
07:59home based on the impacts that you're expected.
08:02And then also if you need to evacuate.
08:04And that might be different for different storms.
08:07So you have to understand your risks on each storm as a storm is approaching.
08:11Download the AccuWeather app, turn on push notifications so those local warnings can
08:15be distributed very rapidly to your phone and certainly make sure your friends and family
08:20are aware as well.
08:21All right.
08:22And one more question here, John.
08:24What is the biggest obstacle in getting people to act when a hurricane is approaching?
08:28How can urgent messaging get through to people in the path of a hurricane really quick?
08:33The messaging is very important.
08:35It takes people, my experience, it takes people a little bit of time to internalize a hurricane
08:40risk that's headed for their area and different people approach that in a different way.
08:45And so from that perspective, it's really important for us to use the messaging to talk
08:50about what impacts we're expecting at a local level.
08:53And we purposely are very specific about how we talk about storm surge and other risks
08:59so that we can help people to make the best decision.
09:03That's very important because each person's got to make that decision about being able
09:07to evacuate and how they're going to approach staying safest during the storm.
09:11John and Mike, how do AccuWeather and the National Hurricane Center work together?
09:15First, Dr. Brennan.
09:16Well, I think a lot of it comes down to what Jonathan just talked about.
09:20It's in messaging and getting word out to people.
09:23You have tremendous reach through things like your app.
09:25You can send push notifications to people.
09:27We have the ability through our warnings to send out wireless emergency alerts.
09:30So it's mainly making sure that people have multiple ways to get trusted information during
09:35a storm.
09:36And, you know, between what the weather service provides and what AccuWeather provides and
09:40others, we can try to make sure that nobody is in the dark when it comes to that sort
09:44of life-saving information.
09:45And we work together very closely, as Mike was mentioning, toward that goal.
09:49We rapidly distribute those government emergency warnings as just one component of the service
09:55that we offer.
09:56We deliver those warnings on average faster than any other source.
10:00And we work together with Mike and his team to format those warnings and think about how
10:04we best communicate people to people in an emergency situation because minutes can count
10:10sometimes.
10:11All right.
10:12Great answers.
10:13All right.
10:14Coming up later in our latest edition of WeatherWise, we're taking a closer look at the top three
10:18costliest hurricanes to ever hit the United States.
10:24But coming up next, we're looking at how advanced technology is helping us deliver life-saving
10:29information during hurricane season.
10:31We're also answering more of your questions when Ask the Experts returns.
10:48And welcome back to AccuWeather's Ask the Experts.
11:08I'm Bernie Raynaud.
11:09We're back with the director of the National Hurricane Center, Dr. Michael Brennan, and
11:14AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter talking about the power of hurricanes
11:19and hurricane safety.
11:21And John, while tracking a hurricane, one weather term that has become what's called
11:26a hot topic, that is the cone of uncertainty.
11:31How does the cone fit in the hurricane forecast and the early warnings AccuWeather provides?
11:36Ah, yes.
11:37The infamous cone.
11:38Well, it's interesting.
11:39AccuWeather actually first invented what we call the window of movement.
11:44This is a way to describe the path, the center track of the storm, where the eye is going
11:49to travel, and also where that center may move either to the left or right.
11:54And so we adjust that track, that graphic in the left and right window dynamically by
12:01our expert meteorologists at our hurricane desk to convey our confidence in a particular
12:06situation.
12:07A forecast is more confident, and that's a more narrow spread versus a situation where
12:12there's less confidence, and the spread can be wider, especially looking several days
12:16out.
12:17We forecast out to seven days here on the AccuWeather forecast.
12:21Now that's just one aspect, though, of what we provide, and we always tell people don't
12:26focus on where the track of the storm, the center track of the storm, where the eye path
12:30is headed only because storms are often, hurricanes and tropical storms are often large, and the
12:35impact can be far away from the center.
12:38So we offer 14 different layers as interactive maps within the AccuWeather app and on AccuWeather.com
12:44so people can understand what's the rainfall risk, what's the risk for storm surge flooding,
12:49what's the risk for winds, all kinds of other impacts.
12:52That's what we want people to focus on, where the storm's going, and importantly, what are
12:56the impacts going to be that I have to prepare for in my community.
12:58Mike, before leading the National Hurricane Center, you had various senior roles, as you
13:03mentioned, over the last 16 years.
13:06In what ways has the technology changed for tracking hurricanes now than when you began
13:13there?
13:14Yeah, I mean, we've made a lot of progress.
13:16I think that the area that sticks out to me is in intensity forecasting.
13:20When I first started forecasting here in 2008, 2009, we really had really limited tools that
13:26we could use to try to predict how strong a storm would be even 24 or 48 hours in advance.
13:32We've really been able to reduce our intensity forecast errors by almost 30 or 40 percent
13:36going back over the last 15 or 20 years, and a lot of that's been due to new models that
13:41have been developed, models like the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model, HWRF,
13:45now the new generation HAVS models, and also better use of aircraft data.
13:50We've been flying aircraft into hurricanes for 60 or 70, 80 years now, but only in the
13:55last 10 years or so have that data gotten into the model analysis to help improve the
14:01models understanding what the hurricane looks like now to improve those intensity forecasts.
14:05We've really, just in the last five to 10 years, started to make progress in forecasting
14:09rapid intensification.
14:11When I first got here, we never issued forecasts that were that aggressive in terms of forecasting
14:15rapid intensification explicitly.
14:17Now we have the confidence to do so in some situations, and that's really helped us to
14:21get the message out right, especially for these rapidly developing storms like Ian or
14:26Adalia that form and then make landfall within two or three days.
14:30And John, how does AccuWeather's advanced technology help out or help get important
14:34safety information to the public in new ways?
14:37Well, we're always innovating our digital products that we offer here to people and
14:43businesses.
14:44That's a key part of the AccuWeather DNA, and it's always in the theme of how can we
14:47provide the most accurate and best information to our users so that they can use that to
14:53keep the family safer and make the best decisions about how they're going to prepare for a severe
14:58weather event like a hurricane.
14:59The push notifications that we offer in the AccuWeather app are so critical.
15:04Those government warnings and other warnings that AccuWeather provides when we can provide
15:08more advanced notice, as we often do, for people in order to be able to understand what
15:13kind of impacts they're going to be expecting.
15:14Also, all those interactive maps that we talked about and the wording that we put in our forecasts
15:20talking about as far in advance as we can risk for a major hurricane next week or talking
15:26about the details of what kind of impacts that we're expecting at a very local level.
15:31I always tell my team, we treat that communication like what would we be telling a family member
15:35of ours if they were in the path of a hurricane, and so that kind of impact information is
15:40very important.
15:41Mike, our next viewer question is for you.
15:44Mark in North Carolina writes, I've always wondered how tropical storms and hurricanes
15:49are named.
15:50Can you explain how they are chosen?
15:52Sure.
15:53That's a great question.
15:54Tropical storm names resonate a lot with folks.
15:56It's a really popular topic.
15:57The names are actually chosen by the World Meteorological Organization Region 4 Hurricane
16:02Committee, which sort of governs tropical storm and hurricane policy across Region 4,
16:07which includes North America, Central America, so our area of responsibility in the Atlantic
16:11and Eastern Pacific.
16:12We have six different name lists, one for each year, and the names alternate between
16:16male and female and are representative of the cultures and languages in the region.
16:21In our region, they're largely English, Spanish, and French names.
16:24So when we get to the point where there's a storm that a country would like to propose
16:28have its name retired, and so the committee votes on that and then votes on a replacement
16:32name, and so that meeting happens every year.
16:34We have it in March back in Panama, and that's how the name lists get governed in this part
16:40of the world.
16:41All right, really quickly here, and I'm going to start with John.
16:43I'll ask you both.
16:44John, I want you to answer this first.
16:46What are the top things you want people to keep in mind during the hurricane season?
16:50Really quickly.
16:51Don't let your guard down, both at the coast and inland, where there can be significant
16:55flooding impacts from hurricanes, and also please never assume that the impacts from
17:01one hurricane in your area will be the same as what you've experienced in the past.
17:05Every storm is different.
17:07The risks can vary.
17:08That's why it's so important to stay tuned to the AccuWeather forecast.
17:10Dr. Brandon.
17:11Yeah, it doesn't take a major hurricane for there to be major impacts in your area, especially
17:17from rainfall, flooding, and again, knowing your risk and understanding that risk ahead
17:21of when a storm threatens you is probably the biggest piece of advice we try to give
17:25everybody ahead of each season.
17:26Well, that'll wrap our question and answer segment.
17:29I want to thank National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan and AccuWeather
17:33Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter for joining us today.
17:38Don't forget, when you have a question about weather, space, or science, you can write
17:41us or send us a video question at AskTheExperts at AccuWeather.com.
17:46You can also call us at 888-566-6606.
17:51After the break, it's time for WeatherWise as we look at the top three costliest hurricanes
17:57in U.S. history.
18:05Welcome back to AccuWeather's Ask the Experts.
18:08It's time for WeatherWise and the three costliest hurricanes to hit the United States.
18:14First, Hurricane Sandy.
18:16In October of 2012, Sandy began in the Caribbean and tracked up the East Coast, while not officially
18:23a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey.
18:25The superstorm unleashed hurricane-force winds and catastrophic storm surge flooding to New
18:31York and Connecticut.
18:33This monster storm caused 147 fatalities and AccuWeather determined the economic cost of
18:39Sandy at $210 billion.
18:43Next, Hurricane Harvey.
18:45In August of 2017, this Category 4 hurricane slammed into the Gulf Coast and then stalled
18:52over Texas, delivering from 40 to over 60 inches of rain in the Houston area.
18:58This led to catastrophic flooding, more than 100 deaths, and $230 billion in damage.
19:05In August of 2005, Katrina made landfall in Florida, regained strength in the warm Gulf
19:12waters, making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane.
19:17With powerful winds and storm surge, the levees in New Orleans failed, leaving about 80 percent
19:23of the city underwater.
19:25Katrina caused more than 1,800 fatalities and, according to AccuWeather, $320 billion
19:31in damages.
19:33Thank you for joining us on AccuWeather's Ask the Experts.
19:36I'm Bernie Rainow.
19:37Don't forget, when you have a question about weather, space or science, you can write us
19:41or send us a video question at AskTheExperts at AccuWeather.com.
19:45You can also call us at 888-566-6606.