स्टॉक मार्केट के लिहाज से मौजूदा साल यानी 2024 जबरदस्त रहा. सेंसेक्स और निफ्टी ने इस साल अब तक 13-13 फीसदी से ज्यादा का रिटर्न दिया. दोनों इंडेक्स सितंबर में ऑल टाइम हाई टच किया. फिर ऊपरी स्तरों से करेक्शन देखने को मिला. मिडकैप और स्मॉलकैप सेक्टर फोकस में हैं. साथ ही चुनिंदा सेक्टर फोकस में है. इसमें कुछ सेक्टर निवेश का शानदार मौका बना है. नए साल में शेयर बाजार किस दिशा में आगे बढ़ेगा? 2025 में बाजार के किस सेक्टर में निवेश करना चाहिए? मिडकैप और स्मॉलकैप सेक्टर में कहां करें निवेश? गुडरिटर्न्स की श्रुति सरकार ने GoalFi के CEO रॉबिन आर्या से खास बातचीत की.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Should we invest in mid-cap or small-cap?
00:03Which sector will be the most important in the new year?
00:07What is important after newly listed stocks, IPOs?
00:12Hello and welcome. My name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching GoodReturns.
00:16And today we have with us to answer these questions,
00:21Robin Arya, Small Case Manager and CEO, Golfi.
00:31Welcome Robin, welcome to the show.
00:34Thanks Shruti, thanks for having me.
00:36So my first question to you is,
00:38this year we saw a lot of ups and downs in Nifty and Sensex.
00:42And you know, the stock market has been doing relatively well.
00:46From the past year, it's up more than 12%.
00:49What is your overall outlook for next year?
00:53We are in a decadal bull run, which started in 2020.
00:57It will not stop before 2030.
00:59So we are in a very good shape.
01:01Structurally, we are a very strong economic country.
01:04Just that, you know, like we said,
01:06Taj Raab is a part and parcel of the market.
01:09In these 10 years, there will be 1-2 tough years.
01:12And all the new investors will have the same testing time.
01:16Like what happened in the last 2 months,
01:18this will happen in the next 6 months as well.
01:20I think next year will not be like last year.
01:23Having said that, like I said,
01:25we are in a decadal bull run story.
01:28So we have to participate.
01:30We cannot sit outside and generate wealth for us.
01:33We will stay inside.
01:35We will see Taj Raab for ourselves.
01:37Then the real understanding of the markets
01:40and the real power of equity markets will come out.
01:44So this will continue.
01:48We are in a very structurally,
01:50and if you look at our position in emerging markets,
01:53where India is placed,
01:55we are very rightly placed
01:57with the kind of companies we have
01:59in mid and small segment.
02:01With the kind of new companies coming into business
02:03in terms of private companies now becoming public.
02:06I think we are very well placed.
02:08You talked about mid and small segment companies.
02:12You know, there are a lot of our users and viewers
02:16who want to know
02:18that at the starting of the year,
02:20say 1st of January,
02:22what should they invest in
02:25some sectors to watch
02:27should they invest in mid cap
02:29or small cap or large cap.
02:31What are your recommendations?
02:33One thing you have to keep in mind
02:35is that what happened in the last 3-4 years
02:37that story will of course continue at some pace.
02:41It will not come at that pace.
02:43That is for sure.
02:45If you see historically,
02:47the markets compound at 14%,
02:49which is 2x return from a normal fixed deposit.
02:54That is how we have to perceive the market.
02:56What we have seen now is that
02:58the market is 25-30%
03:00and people think that
03:02the money doubles every 3 years.
03:04This is not the case.
03:06If you see historically,
03:08100 years of history of the markets
03:10whether in the US or here,
03:12you see 25-30 years since the Indian markets evolved.
03:14We have to temper down the expectations
03:16of the markets
03:18in terms of what we have seen in the last 4 years.
03:20But this is the only asset class
03:23that can generate wealth.
03:25Our expectations have been mismatched
03:27in the last 4 years.
03:29The way we look now next year
03:31as we are managing a part of
03:338000 plus customers
03:35via our research.
03:37If you see,
03:39you will always find pockets
03:41in small and mid-sized companies in India
03:43because we have many well-run companies
03:45who are leading
03:47a strong promoter.
03:49These are the companies
03:52which will become a part of Nifty Next 50
03:54at some point in time
03:56and eventually become a part of Nifty 50
03:58at some point in time.
04:00The journey of those small companies
04:02and mid-cap companies
04:04to transition in the next 10 years
04:06into Nifty Next 50
04:08as a junior Nifty index
04:10is where we have to be a part of them.
04:12What will be the difference?
04:14Let's take the last 4 years.
04:16I think there was a theme
04:18that CapEx was very high
04:20and there was a theme
04:22which was getting played out
04:24whether it was Railways or Defence.
04:26I don't think that will happen now.
04:28We have to be very specific
04:30with real businesses.
04:32Business doesn't run on the order book.
04:34It runs after the order is realized
04:36in terms of when the orders
04:38are actually realized.
04:40You have to remember
04:42that it will take a lot of time
04:44for a big company
04:46to double the market cap
04:49and compound at a certain rate.
04:51Just a single digit
04:53or maybe
04:55it would not be possible
04:57to beat the index overall
04:59for very large companies
05:01because of their earnings growth
05:03and EPS growth.
05:05To make that scale,
05:07you need to have more market share
05:09but market share is already good
05:11for those companies.
05:13We have to be very choosy
05:15in terms of which sectors
05:18play our strategies
05:20because money won't be made
05:22on the theme.
05:24It will be made on active
05:26management of money.
05:28There are two types of people
05:30who invest in index
05:32which is absolutely the right way
05:34to do for a large set of people
05:36because they don't understand the market
05:38and that is how they can participate
05:40in the growth of our country as such.
05:42But there are people who understand
05:44and invest in active mutual funds
05:47for some strategy-led investment
05:49like for example,
05:51if you think about
05:53the segment we are in
05:55the increase of PAN card holders
05:57and DEMAT accounts
05:59Before COVID,
06:01there were 4 crore DEMAT accounts
06:03and after COVID,
06:05there were 9 crore DEMAT accounts
06:07and today there are 17 crore DEMAT accounts.
06:09So, the growth of this sector
06:11the entire wealth management sector
06:13the entire AMC space, capital markets
06:16the depository clearing corporations
06:18which mature the entire ecosystem
06:20I think this is the place
06:22to be.
06:24We have also made an offering
06:26called Wealth Wave
06:28in which we are playing on this
06:30decadal wealth story of India
06:32that how a new user
06:34who has just started earning
06:36and our demographic is very good
06:38we have young people
06:40I mean the strength of our country
06:42is young population
06:44versus their parents' interest
06:46in equity markets
06:48and therefore, you don't have to think
06:50mid-small-large
06:52you have to play on some strategy
06:54strategy could be index fund-based
06:56or strategy could be one of say
06:58what we do in quant investing
07:00we take care of whether you have
07:02large-mid-small in terms of
07:04the right weightage
07:06and you leave it to somebody else
07:08to decide
07:10the strategy can be momentum-led
07:13you have to choose one of them
07:15but
07:17the sectors which are very promising
07:19in the next 10 years, next 2 years
07:21next 5 years
07:23are the sectors which will
07:25help our GDP to do good
07:27and that is where the entire capital market
07:29play, the entire penetration
07:31of 25,000 crore SIP
07:33per month
07:35this is where the growth is
07:37You rightly said that
07:39the sectors will obviously play a
07:41bigger role on
07:43our GDP growth
07:45so if I had to ask you
07:47what are the sectors
07:49in the coming year which will be
07:51very important for investment
07:53which will be watched
07:55and looked at
07:57what is your outlook on it, what are your recommendations?
07:59There are 2-3 things
08:01if you look at it broadly
08:03at the cost of repetition, I will say
08:052-3-4 sectors are very strong
08:07which are growing
08:09the entire wealth management space
08:11the big India's brokers
08:13listed brokers
08:15have a big segment
08:17in their income
08:19plus the entire distribution
08:21they do in terms of wealth products
08:23if you don't take the name, I am usually
08:25on a public forum, but if you look at
08:27these public listed
08:29broking companies
08:31and if you see the kind of margins they have
08:33and if you see the kind of user growth
08:35every month 2 lakh new people are added
08:37so this AMC space is very powerful
08:39because our SIP book is increasing
08:41our new folios are increasing
08:43so this is a big segment
08:45then the whole ecosystem around it
08:47which is called capital market
08:49in which our clearing houses come
08:51our exchanges come
08:53this is the entire segment which is very promising
08:55rest in India, if you see
08:57healthcare, there are very good
08:59diagnostic chains of healthcare
09:01few of them are Hyderabad based
09:03they are kind of very well run organizations
09:05who have a strong management
09:07strong DAI presence
09:09these are very profitable businesses
09:11when we were talking about Q2 earnings
09:13there were only these two sectors
09:15where there was 2 digit earning growth
09:17otherwise everybody was very
09:19negative about that earnings growth
09:21is not coming, single digit is coming
09:23but if you see the sectors where
09:25there was no slowdown in earnings growth
09:27neither in the entire wealth space
09:29nor in the entire healthcare space
09:31so these are the sectors which you have to think about
09:33I told you about capital markets
09:35I told you about healthcare diagnostic chains
09:37which are very well run organizations
09:39which are mid-cap companies
09:41which make good business
09:43profited margins are very high
09:45you can track them
09:47rest, China is a 1 plus 1 strategy
09:49tariffs are imposed by everyone
09:53Trump's words and actions
09:55make a lot of difference in terms of
09:57when he comes to the house
09:59that will determine that
10:01I think metals is a sector
10:03that may have a very direct link
10:05with those decisions
10:07and we can get a major advantage
10:11second, China is also
10:13strongly easing out its policies
10:15so that they can actually negate
10:17some impact of Trump
10:19talking a lot about tariffs
10:21for that, they have
10:23eased out their housing policies
10:25so whatever raw material
10:27they need for construction
10:29China is one of the exporters
10:31for China upon entire iron ore
10:33so there is a big role in metals
10:35for those decisions
10:37which are macroeconomic linked
10:39at the same time, we have to see
10:41how much strength of dollar
10:43is maintained
10:45being Trump, we never would like
10:47dollar to weaken
10:49and rate cuts
10:51are not in a hurry
10:53in the US
10:55I think, if you ask me personally
10:57Fed and RBI are way behind
10:59the curve
11:01and now what will happen
11:03growth will slow down
11:05like it has happened in India
11:07and now our RBI's new governor has come
11:09so rate cut is likely
11:11and that will also have probably
11:13a strong impact on
11:15everything
11:17because what we don't know
11:19we don't know
11:21GDP forecast was different
11:23RBI's was different
11:25if they are 30% lower than
11:27what you are anticipating
11:29if you are thinking 7%
11:31and 5% will come
11:33so you have to think
11:35if market has made an X
11:37then its 30% will be less
11:39naturally, because country is growing
11:41at a 30% slower rate
11:43the whole market is cyclical
11:45quarter 2 is the worst
11:47I think the worst is behind
11:49because quarter 3
11:51in which we are today
11:53Diwali, Dussehra, Christmas
11:55this quarter
11:57holidays, vacations
11:59in winter and consumption
12:01so quarter 2 was the worst
12:03quarter 3 numbers
12:05I am sure will be better
12:07when it will start coming from January
12:09and somewhere in the forecast
12:11RBI has reduced its numbers
12:13from 7.5% to 6%
12:15so sectors
12:17like in the beginning
12:19you have to take care of metals
12:21IT will have a very direct
12:23kind of linkage
12:25if dollar is strong
12:27all IT companies
12:29will have a kind of
12:31advantage
12:33IT, metals, healthcare
12:35in one pocket
12:37and very heavy on entire
12:39wealth management space
12:41is our focus for next 2 years
12:43very insightful
12:45Robin, before I let you
12:47go
12:49I have some Gen Z and now
12:51Gen Alpha users
12:53who on Twitter, Facebook
12:55and Instagram
12:57ask very small questions
12:59we are students, we are homemakers
13:01and we have Rs. 5000
13:03and we don't understand
13:05where to invest
13:07get FD or put money in the market
13:09or which stock
13:11to buy, so for them
13:13what kind of advice do you have?
13:15very good
13:17Gen Z and Alpha are thinking about this
13:19we are very late
13:21I have been working for 20 years
13:23I think we thought very late
13:25and today's youth
13:27I have a lot of IT Kanpur engineers
13:29when we go to campus
13:31and then say do any of the
13:33you know these events
13:353rd year students are also investing
13:37they are investing in their pocket
13:39that is a change right
13:41and I think the easiest way
13:43to invest them
13:45is an index fund
13:47even if you say
13:49I also run a small case basket strategy
13:51but I will say they have to first start
13:53their exposure via
13:55an index fund
13:57because it is the easiest and the most automated
13:59and the benefit of real averaging
14:01when you take a basket
14:03of stocks and you put more money in it
14:05next month Rs. 500
14:07then you can average everything
14:09without realizing that you have
14:11averaged the increasing things
14:13but if you do a real SIP
14:15in an index fund
14:17or in a mutual fund
14:19which is a well managed mutual fund
14:21there you give the power
14:23you have two benefits
14:25you get the real dollar cost averaging
14:27concept
14:29you get the whole cycle
14:31market went up or down
14:33second
14:35advantage is
14:37it is a very effortless
14:39journey
14:41so the small investors
14:43who want to start with Rs. 5000
14:45they should not think about complex products
14:47the only simple product
14:49is index investing
14:51because there are a lot of smart people
14:53in today's generation
14:55they have a lot of questions
14:57I do an active investment
14:59will I get this much return
15:01I think 10 years or 5 to 6 years
15:03of investment journey gives maturity
15:05that you need everything
15:07you need index investing
15:09there are complementary products
15:11small case basket, mutual fund, index fund
15:13but it has a journey
15:15starting journey, college, marriage
15:17children
15:19similarly your investment journey
15:21has to be step by step
15:23start with plain index, vanilla fund
15:25no logic applied
15:27then you get to know that you saw the market going down
15:29you experienced
15:31then of course you move to active management fund
15:33then you move to a very concentrated
15:35basket like say for example we do
15:37so you have to mature
15:39that is why you should think
15:41FD is also an integral part of your asset
15:43you have to understand
15:45what is your overall asset allocation
15:47it may sound like
15:49knowledge
15:51but the point is
15:53this is how you mature
15:55make sure that you have some emergency fund
15:57if you don't have emergency fund
15:59you have invested all your money in the market
16:01broad market like nifty
16:03can go down 10% also
16:05if you were in need of money
16:07you will have that bad experience
16:09at age of 24
16:1125 that this thing is not for me
16:13so that unnecessary will
16:15kind of
16:17I mean that is unnecessary distraction for you
16:19start
16:21first 2 years, 5 years
16:23just follow very simple passive products
16:25once you are in the system
16:27do experiments
16:29why not
16:31I think that was very
16:33straight forward insightful thoughts
16:35and I just want to thank you
16:37Robin for joining us today
16:39that was Robin Arya from Golfi
16:41thank you viewers for
16:43viewing us
16:45thank you so much Robin for joining us today
16:47viewers that was Robin Arya
16:49small case manager and
16:51CEO Golfi
16:53thank you for watching us
16:55music
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