"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (20/12/2024) dengan tema Cermati Saham Pilihan: BBRI, GGRM, MEDC, UNVR."
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00:00Baru, Soyu Intense Lip Stain.
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00:05Thank you for joining us.
00:07And still connected by video conference,
00:09there is Mr. Hans Web, the capital market regulator,
00:11related to volatility or weakness of the exchange rate
00:13of the US dollar.
00:15Mr. Hans, your projection,
00:17the movement today, and for certain sectors,
00:19it seems
00:21it is still burdened
00:23with the weakness of this exchange rate.
00:25Yes, that's right.
00:27We see, actually,
00:29since October,
00:31we can see,
00:33the Rupiah has begun to experience weakness.
00:35And of course,
00:37since Donald Trump has been elected,
00:39because indeed,
00:41the market is also
00:43relatively
00:45anticipated,
00:47the possibility of Donald Trump's victory
00:49in the US election.
00:51And right now,
00:53if we look, there is a pressure
00:55of capital outflow in our market,
00:57and then the strong dollar
00:59that happened after the Federal Reserve
01:01may not be able to cut the flow
01:03as quickly as expected
01:05by the market.
01:07Of course, we also saw
01:09yesterday that the BI also did not
01:11cut the flow, even though the market
01:13hoped that the flow would be cut
01:15by our central bank
01:17to support an economy that
01:19looks a bit weak,
01:21especially in the middle class,
01:23below, there seems to be a decrease
01:25in the purchasing power there.
01:27But if we look, this Rupiah
01:29should not continue
01:31to weaken,
01:33because we also assume
01:35that the dollar
01:37itself is not too strong
01:39in yesterday's trade.
01:41People are starting to profit-taking in the US dollar.
01:43So it should be,
01:45the current levels
01:47yesterday were very
01:49close to
01:5116.3, but
01:53it looks a bit stagnant.
01:55For those who
01:57then have stocks
01:59that are quite affected
02:01by the weakness of the US dollar
02:03itself, or maybe
02:05other sectors,
02:07related to the weakness of the ISG,
02:09especially for blue chips,
02:11what should be
02:13treated, related to the portfolio
02:15that has been owned, and actually
02:17related to positive sentiment, is there
02:19any other hope?
02:21Actually, this is in the middle of a variety of
02:23information
02:25related to the increase
02:27of the PPN to 12% in
02:292025. Do we
02:31have any other positive sentiment
02:33that we can hope for, at least, Mr. Hans?
02:35Yes, indeed,
02:37the PPN increased to 12%,
02:39one of the things that is a bit burdensome
02:41is the movement of the
02:43index and our Rupiah.
02:45So, in the middle of
02:47a weak buying power, when the PPN
02:49increases, of course, people speculate
02:51that the PPN
02:53will cause a price increase
02:55and again suppress the consumption
02:57of the community. But it is true
02:59that the PPN is only increased
03:01to luxury goods, but
03:03of course people are also
03:05careful whether there is
03:07a domino effect
03:09from the PPN increase earlier.
03:11There is a subsidy given by the government
03:13related to the
03:15PPN increase earlier, but
03:17we see
03:19that the subsidy given earlier is a bit short.
03:21So, people are worried
03:23that the domino effect
03:25from the PPN increase
03:27can't be suppressed. So, this is a bit
03:29negative for the market
03:31when our PPN moves up.
03:33But of course there is hope
03:35at the end of the year, the market
03:37has a chance to rebound.
03:39Moreover, the weakness is quite
03:41significant.
03:43We will see
03:45how the market moves
03:47as a result of various sentiments.
03:49However, we will discuss first
03:51the options this morning from you,
03:53between BBRI,
03:55GGRM,
03:57and Unilever.
03:59All are well recommended
04:01with the level of support
04:03you mentioned at level 4000,
04:05SSS at 4530
04:07for BBRI, GGRM,
04:09support at 12,500,
04:11SSS at 14,200,
04:13Medco support at 1000,
04:15and SSS at 1185,
04:17Unilever,
04:19support at 1735,
04:21with SSS at 2040.
04:23What is the complete analysis like, Mr. Hans?
04:25Yes,
04:27if we look at BBRI,
04:29yesterday it was still pressed down,
04:31but if we
04:33look at it,
04:35the pattern is relatively small.
04:37So, it's like a doji
04:39that is thrown down.
04:41So, we see
04:43there is a potential to rebound
04:45at BBRI.
04:47During the market pressure period,
04:49we have to resist
04:51relatively blue-chip.
04:53Indeed, BBRI
04:55may experience a decrease
04:57in energy due to
04:59credit savings.
05:01And this happens because
05:03there is pressure on our SMEs
05:05who are relatively
05:07experiencing problems
05:09due to COVID-19.
05:11But we still speculatively
05:13buy BBRI,
05:15at the level of 4,050 to 4,100.
05:17The price for us to buy,
05:19we cut loss below 4,000.
05:21Our target for BBRI
05:23should be able to return
05:25to 4,400 for BBRI.
05:27Okay, Mr. Hans,
05:29some time ago it can be used
05:31to enter BBRI.
05:33And if we look at the last level,
05:35it's quite interesting, Mr. Hans,
05:37BBRI is still quite cheap,
05:39considering that the target price
05:41from BBRI is quite far from
05:43the current level.
05:45Yes, that's right.
05:47If we think about the rebound market,
05:49it's usually blue-chip
05:51that are relatively leading.
05:53Okay, from BBRI
05:55we go to GGRM, Mr. Hans.
05:57What is it like?
05:59Yes, the gold market is actually volatile.
06:01If we look at the volatility
06:03in trade,
06:05the hand tends to widen
06:07its position,
06:09and the decline yesterday
06:11formed a candle in our place
06:13in the form of a hammer.
06:15So, of course, this opens up
06:17the opportunity for buying.
06:19Level 12,500, 12,900
06:21is our buying area.
06:23If it moves down
06:25below 12,300,
06:27we may cut loss first.
06:29But our strength target
06:31is 14,200 for GGRM.
06:33Okay, related to a sentiment
06:35that may also be positive related to GGRM,
06:37which is related to Cukai Roko 2025
06:39officially does not rise like that,
06:41this may then become a sentiment
06:43that quite supports the movement
06:45of SAMSAM based on the producer of cigarettes,
06:47one of which is GGRM.
06:49From GGRM we go to Medco.
06:51Mr. Hans, what is it like?
06:53Yes, earlier in the gold market
06:55there was also a government effort
06:57to ban illegal cigarettes.
06:59Because there are cigarettes
07:01whose price is cheap.
07:03And this is damaging the country.
07:05So it will certainly be a relatively positive sentiment
07:07for the cigarette industry itself.
07:11Medco is actually in a downward movement.
07:15But it looks like the last candle
07:17there is opposition.
07:19So we recommend
07:21there is a potential rebound.
07:23Bought area in 2015
07:25to 1070.
07:27Cut loss below 1,000.
07:29This is our target for strengthening
07:31at 1,170 for Medco.
07:35From Medco we go to Unilever.
07:37Mr. Hans, approaching the holiday season
07:39like this for Unilever itself
07:41is interesting to be respected.
07:43Yes, Unilever
07:45actually the trend has been down
07:47for quite some time.
07:49This is also one of the confirmations
07:51that the buying power is indeed decreasing.
07:53It can be seen that the middle class
07:55is downgrading the brand
07:57and this is seen to have an effect
07:59on Unilever which is a bit
08:01depressed in sales.
08:03But if we look from November,
08:05it has formed a base
08:07and there is room for a rebound.
08:09At the moment, the pressure is going down
08:11and the volume is relatively small.
08:13So we recommend
08:15buying at the same Unilever
08:171,750
08:19to 1,800.
08:21This is our buying area
08:23for the same Unilever.
08:25If it drops below
08:271,740,
08:29our target for Unilever
08:31is 2,000 to 2,040.
08:33Okay, if we compare
08:35with, for example, Mior
08:37or maybe INDF, how interesting
08:39is it actually for Unilever
08:41or maybe other companies in the same sector
08:43also, maybe in terms of valuation,
08:45it is still cheap.
08:47Is it also interesting to be evaluated by you, Mr. Hans?
08:49Yes, if we look at Unilever
08:51because the decline
08:53is already quite a lot,
08:55so we think there is room for
08:57a rebound.
08:59Miora itself is actually
09:01a bit flat, so
09:03we don't recommend it too much.
09:05ICBP
09:07dropped yesterday,
09:09but the shadow is long below.
09:11This is actually a chance to buy speculation too.
09:1310,900
09:15to 11,200
09:17is actually a good
09:19area to buy ICBP
09:21because usually
09:23big cap is
09:25if there is a window raising,
09:27they have the potential to rebound.
09:29Okay, that's all the shares
09:31recommended by you, Mr. Hans,
09:33and also in the analysis,
09:35the complete analysis is delivered
09:37for you, Mr. Hirsu, from IDX Channel.
09:39If we look at the shares
09:41that usually
09:43become a hold
09:45in the midst of uncertainty
09:47and can also be maintained
09:49in the midst of growth
09:51or maybe a movement that is enough
09:53to make you nervous, Mr. Hans.
09:55Actually, what sector is it?
09:57And maybe if you really want
09:59to talk specifically about the shares,
10:01what is it?
10:03Yes, usually
10:05at the end of the year,
10:07the market is relatively corrected
10:09like this, later if
10:11the global condition
10:13does not, the
10:15turbulence drops,
10:17usually there is a window raising potential
10:19and usually
10:21what is raised is of course the
10:23blue chip shares, the cap.
10:25Well, shares like BBCA
10:27this is one that we can
10:29consider.
10:31In addition, there are independent banks,
10:33in addition to BBRI,
10:35then we
10:37can also build like BBRI,
10:39these are quite
10:41corrected shares, quite a lot,
10:43and open up opportunities
10:45to do buying accumulation.
10:47Well, shares like Talcom
10:49also, if we look at it again,
10:51testing the lower level,
10:53in the 2500s,
10:55this is also interesting for us to buy.
10:57In addition, if we look at
10:59ASEE, indeed ASEE
11:01is relatively
11:03there is pressure because the selling of vehicles
11:05is weak, but we see
11:07next year there is an incentive for
11:09hybrid cars, where
11:11this hybrid is produced a lot
11:13by Japan and
11:15ASEE is one of the
11:17distributors. Indeed, this time
11:19we have to see the market a little careful.
11:21Yesterday, the economic growth
11:23review of the US rose to 3.1,
11:25earlier it was 2.8,
11:27previously 3%,
11:29so the market is a bit
11:31worried, maybe, seeing the US economy
11:33quite strong. Then the unemployment
11:35claim, it turned out to be down,
11:37so the US labor market
11:39is quite strong.
11:41The market may rebound, but maybe
11:43it's a bit limited.
11:45For the items you just mentioned,
11:47it's interesting to be able to advertise and
11:49enter like that, but for those
11:51who already have it in the hall earlier,
11:53it's more or less like that, Mr. Hans?
11:55Yes, now it's difficult
11:57if we cut it.
11:59We will go to the movement of IHSG,
12:01the opening of C1
12:03today, so far it is moving to strengthen
12:050.39%, at level 7400,
12:075.55, then also
12:09KJEN, ILS-9,
12:11DOSS, BOT,
12:13PMMP, Medco, then Raja,
12:15MLPL, and also PTRO,
12:17Tabluses, there is Sona, SKBM, CNT,
12:19TRUS, MANG, SOFA,
12:21SAPX, CLIN, BSML, and
12:23MSEN. So far it is quite in line
12:25with your
12:27IHSG movement projection,
12:29Mr. Hans,
12:31so far it has become a pattern that
12:33continues to the closing of the market
12:35later this afternoon.
12:37It feels like there is a strengthening,
12:39but we have to say
12:41that the market is a little careful,
12:43because
12:45the impact of US data
12:47is quite influential, especially the statement
12:49of Jerome Paul, the next decline
12:51is very dependent on data.
12:53Tonight there is PCA data,
12:55but it looks like the PCA will go up,
12:57maybe there is a slight increase
12:59in the US PCA. If we look at
13:01the PCA int, maybe from 2.8
13:03it can go up to 2.9,
13:05then the PCA itself
13:07maybe from 2.3 can go up
13:09to 2.5, but
13:11monthly it will stay at 0.2.
13:13So it's not too good
13:15for the market, but
13:17it feels like there is a market expectation.
13:19Okay, Mr. Hans, thank you for joining us this morning
13:21and also for delivering the analysis.
13:23Hopefully this can be a reference for
13:25market players to invest today.
13:27But again, the investment decision
13:29is back to you, the viewer of IDX channel.
13:31Mr. Hans, thank you.
13:33Thank you. Stay healthy and always successful.
13:35Goodbye.