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00:00Playoff leaders, passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, these conversations are always
00:08fun and they tie into who you feel can go the furthest.
00:15Obviously the kind of game that you play with this is the fact that the one seeds are favored
00:20to go to the Super Bowl, but if they do, they will play as many games as the team they would
00:27eliminate in the conference championship game.
00:30That is why right now Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are in front of a Pat Mahomes or why
00:36even a Sam Darnold is in front of a Jared Goff.
00:40So let's just stick with the quarterbacks for now.
00:44When you look at this market, Donnie, layoff leader, passing yards, whose number stands
00:50out to you the most?
00:51I mean, look, Josh Allen, the way he's going to get to a Super Bowl, is it really behind
00:56his arm or is it a mix of let's run the football, let's have him run the football, let's make
01:00some timely plays?
01:01Lamar Jackson, I've been screaming about this since last year when they lost to the Kansas
01:05City Chiefs.
01:06You don't have to throw the football 35 to 40 times a game, but he is going to get that
01:09maximum number of games played.
01:11Sam Darnold at a 6 to 1 price here.
01:14We're saying, you know what, if this team makes a deep run, it's probably going to be
01:17on his arm as opposed to Aaron Jones in the backfield.
01:20Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, as we talked about here, looking at them on the buy.
01:24For me, it might be just so simple to say, if you think a team can make a run and make
01:29a difference, maybe it would be Sam Darnold at the 6 to 1, because I do think now at a
01:33neutral site, they're going to beat the Rams, and he's probably going to throw for 275-plus
01:37in that game.
01:38Then you get to the next weekend, look who he's going up against, the Detroit team, where
01:41you know you're going to have to throw the football to beat that team, and if you do,
01:44he's probably not throwing for less than 225 in that game.
01:47You're looking for 275-plus in multiple touchdowns, then it brings up, you've got to beat the
01:50Eagles.
01:51So really, even though, I'm saying, the pathway is still hard for the Vikings, but that price
01:56point and how they're going to win football games might make some sense to me.
01:59Yeah, it's good value at 6 to 1 with Sam Darnold.
02:01I actually like LA, so I wouldn't go that route.
02:04I would go the second tier.
02:06I would take a shot on Jared Goff, Pat Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, and I think Jalen Hurts has
02:11good value, assuming that they get by Green Bay tomorrow, one-half point home favorite,
02:15even though they want to run the football with Saquon Barkley, I believe that if Philly
02:20gets through Green Bay, they're going to be in the NFC Championship game, so you're
02:23going to get the extra game, you know, to catch up on some of the other guys at plus
02:27850.
02:28I think it's pretty good value.
02:29They're going to have to throw, I believe, especially tomorrow, I believe, Philly.
02:33I think Green Bay will take away Saquon to some capacity, so even if, you know, you're
02:38talking about 225 maybe for Hurts tomorrow, I still think he can break out in the other
02:43two games, so plus 850 for me is good value.
02:46So that, Hurts is an interesting one.
02:50There's something within my Sell Me Something we'll get to later where I think it's like
02:53a tricky way to bet a team to win a conference, but Philly is plus 320 to win the conference.
02:59You're getting 850 for him.
03:00Again, typically, the goal would be to get a four-game player in any of these markets,
03:06right?
03:07So I'll go to you, Donnie.
03:08If I tell you, hey, the Eagles make the Super Bowl, do you think that Hurts, in four games,
03:15will still throw for enough yardage for you to be happy about that ticket at plus 850?
03:19Yeah, no, and it should make sense, because you're looking at styles to make points, as
03:22Joe says.
03:23We might get, I don't want to say a lower-scoring game tomorrow, but you got two really good
03:26running backs, and the MO of the Philadelphia Eagles is make sure Saquon gets the football,
03:30but then you're trying to line them up on who they might play in that second round and
03:33how much you can pass, and even, quite frankly, in the NFC title game.
03:36I'm going to tell you this right now.
03:37You get to an NFC title game, and it's the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles
03:40that give.
03:41The Eagles won.
03:42You know, Saquon had a good game, but Jalen Hurts had 195 passing.
03:45No, like, Jalen Hurts is probably going to have to throw for three bills in that game,
03:49and then you're saying, okay, when you get to the Super Bowl, what happens if it is Patrick
03:52Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, because he's played well in the past before?
03:55It's not a bad price, but I was just trying to take a look at saying, what's the price
03:59point, and what do I think the game plans would be?
04:01Because to me, even though the Eagles have sensational offensive line, wide receivers,
04:05and tight ends, the MO is, let's make sure that guy in the backfield gets 20 to 25 carries.
04:11I just don't see that with a team like Minnesota.
04:12Like, Minnesota's going to win on Kevin O'Connell's offense, absolutely rolling, and Justin Jefferson
04:16and Addison have been big games for me.
04:18Yeah, I think, again, the Hurts thing is odd, because that plus 850, compared to the conference
04:24number, it's tempting.
04:26I think that Jalen could have a 300-yard game, but I also think the world where he does finish
04:31one of those games with a buck 40 would not be surprising.
04:34And they can still win.
04:35He threw for 118 yards against Baltimore in that victory, right?
04:38Which is, I think, kind of what a lot of them are like, where's he throwing the ball?
04:42AJ losing his mind, and things of that nature.
04:45I think the most, you talk about value, right?
04:49To me, it's Herbert at 17 to 1.
04:52That is a very surprising number, but considering they are booked as favorites this round of
04:58a field goal, I don't think Donald's a good, I don't think he's good value.
05:02You could win the ticket, he's a lesser favorite than Herbert, and I don't know what the pathway
05:09for Donald is to be favorite in round number two.
05:12I'm trying to, I guess it would be if Philly loses, Minnesota would be a slight favorite
05:19in Tampa, and then they would be a favorite if they hosted Washington, but Herbert is
05:23a favorite in this round of a tick of a bigger margin, and I don't think Herbert's number,
05:30if they win and play Kansas City, is going to be, in terms of a spread, I mean, the number's
05:37going to be, what, 3 1⁄2?
05:38Maybe 4?
05:39It's not going to be out of bounds.
05:41At 17 to 1, I'm surprised at how long the Justin Herbert number is.
05:46No, it is, but think about the road, and potentially a matchup in Arrowhead if they get there,
05:51I mean, that's, DMO was a lower scoring game, what, 16-14 last time they played, or 19-17.
05:59I'll take a different approach.
06:01Baker at 10 to 1.
06:02Now, I do believe Washington steps up.
06:0550 1⁄2 is the total, but you're talking about a guy and a team that beat Detroit and
06:10beat Philly this year, right?
06:12Now, granted, I understand that Philly team was a little banged up when they played, but
06:18they pushed tempo as well as anybody, and Baker is as hot as anybody in terms of throwing
06:24the football, so again, they're going to throw it, you know, if they face off against Detroit.
06:29They're going to have to throw it against Philly, and he had success already, so why
06:33not back him at 10 to 1 as that lottery type of ticket, assuming they get through Washington.