The analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Russia's attempts to de facto annex Belarus pose strategic risks to the United States, NATO and Ukraine.
"Moscow’s effort to de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework, while incomplete, has already achieved significant gains, requiring NATO to reevaluate the implications of Russia’s growing control over Belarus and the capabilities and resources Russia can leverage against the United States, NATO, and Ukraine as a result", ISW said.
The analysts note that Belarus is not just an ally of Russia. The Kremlin is turning Belarus into a strategic partner that helps Russia spread its power worldwide.
They add that the Kremlin will use its recent but deep-rooted gains in Belarus to offset the costs of Russia's long war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia's recovery from the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars faster than it could do on its own.
"Policymakers must start planning for a future in which Belarus is not only a captive nation but also effectively an extension of the Russian Federation", ISW said.
Experts emphasise that Russia is trying to take control of all areas of the neighbouring state's governance.
In this regard, three key areas of Russian efforts are considered: the Kremlin's efforts aimed at military, political and economic integration of Russia and Belarus.
"The Kremlin’s desired suite of integration measures with Belarus is so broad and comprehensive in many respects that it is harder to determine what Moscow will not control in Belarus if Moscow succeeds than to list what Moscow will control", ISW said
ISW said that while Russia has not yet completed its attempt to de facto annex Belarus, it has already reached stages that pose a threat to the security of the United States, NATO, and Ukraine, as well as to the continued existence of Belarus as a sovereign state.
İn this case, Head of the Security Council of Belarus Aleksandr Volfovich has shared the scenario of enreting NATO troops into Belarusy. According to him, Belarusian volunteers are supposed to enter one of the districts and invite NATO peacekeepers to the liberated territory.
Earlier,president Alexander Lukashenko shared a similar scenario. On 25 April 2024, he said that Belarusian volunteers ‘are preparing to enter Belarus, declare their authority there and address NATO’: “I don't know why they have chosen Kobryn district ... it's not near the border... They want to invade, declare power, appeal to NATO and bring in troops. “The democratic forces’” will be the first to go, and NATO troops will be the second row”. The dictator also said that the Americans were training the Belarusian liberation army: “The Kalinouski regiment and other volunteer formations, the Belarusian Volunteer Corps are to serve as its basis”.
"Moscow’s effort to de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework, while incomplete, has already achieved significant gains, requiring NATO to reevaluate the implications of Russia’s growing control over Belarus and the capabilities and resources Russia can leverage against the United States, NATO, and Ukraine as a result", ISW said.
The analysts note that Belarus is not just an ally of Russia. The Kremlin is turning Belarus into a strategic partner that helps Russia spread its power worldwide.
They add that the Kremlin will use its recent but deep-rooted gains in Belarus to offset the costs of Russia's long war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia's recovery from the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars faster than it could do on its own.
"Policymakers must start planning for a future in which Belarus is not only a captive nation but also effectively an extension of the Russian Federation", ISW said.
Experts emphasise that Russia is trying to take control of all areas of the neighbouring state's governance.
In this regard, three key areas of Russian efforts are considered: the Kremlin's efforts aimed at military, political and economic integration of Russia and Belarus.
"The Kremlin’s desired suite of integration measures with Belarus is so broad and comprehensive in many respects that it is harder to determine what Moscow will not control in Belarus if Moscow succeeds than to list what Moscow will control", ISW said
ISW said that while Russia has not yet completed its attempt to de facto annex Belarus, it has already reached stages that pose a threat to the security of the United States, NATO, and Ukraine, as well as to the continued existence of Belarus as a sovereign state.
İn this case, Head of the Security Council of Belarus Aleksandr Volfovich has shared the scenario of enreting NATO troops into Belarusy. According to him, Belarusian volunteers are supposed to enter one of the districts and invite NATO peacekeepers to the liberated territory.
Earlier,president Alexander Lukashenko shared a similar scenario. On 25 April 2024, he said that Belarusian volunteers ‘are preparing to enter Belarus, declare their authority there and address NATO’: “I don't know why they have chosen Kobryn district ... it's not near the border... They want to invade, declare power, appeal to NATO and bring in troops. “The democratic forces’” will be the first to go, and NATO troops will be the second row”. The dictator also said that the Americans were training the Belarusian liberation army: “The Kalinouski regiment and other volunteer formations, the Belarusian Volunteer Corps are to serve as its basis”.
Category
🗞
News