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00:00Hello, everybody. Adam Monk here from 442 from London. I'm currently fighting for my
00:10life because yesterday I paid £8.70 for a meal deal. Also, I know Adam clearly likes
00:15to do these videos stood up and all bouncing around, but if that was to happen for me and
00:19I stood up, this would happen. So yeah, can't really do much about that. But yeah, this
00:24video was going to be on the Forest-Liverpool game, but that game was boring. We know me
00:31and Adam through looking at the analytics that you lot are less likely to watch a video
00:35on a draw. So we'll swerve that one. If you want a quick analysis of that game, Forest,
00:41pretty good team. Liverpool, pretty good team. Chris Woods, very good. That rhymed. But yeah,
00:46sorry, Liverpool fans. You've got Mo Salah to thank for that and the miss at the death
00:50cleared off the line. And with that said, I think it's time to talk about a new Egyptian
00:54king. Was that accidental Peter Drury? I don't really know. It sounded poetic.
01:01So as for Manchester City, why are they spending so much money in the January transfer window?
01:06Well, let's start by just looking at this quickly. Yeah, they objectively stink. This
01:13is the opposition cross success rate, 35% City at the bottom there. And also City just
01:18block the fewest shots in general when teams get into their penalty area. So they really,
01:24really can't defend. So to address that, they're bringing in Abdukadir Kuchinov. Now,
01:31I'll level with you. If I sat here and pretended to know anything about that bloke or even
01:35that he existed a week ago, that would be the biggest lie since this video. We cannot
01:41replace him. We cannot. From what I've seen of Kuchinov, just to summarise him quickly,
01:46it would be GBH, just, just raw GBH, which going back to this graph, City clearly need.
01:53So instead, I'm going to talk about City's brand spanking new attacker, who can play
01:58centre forward and play off the left. And all he really has to do to impress in the
02:03second half of this season is score, I'd say, two goals. Because if you look around Erling
02:08Haaland, let's look at Jack Grealish, for example. Well, he scored one goal in the last
02:12calendar year. And to put that into context, that's one goal since the Willy Wonka experience
02:18in Glasgow was a thing, which seems like a bygone era. So Erling Haaland really does
02:23need some help. And don't get me wrong, he currently is doing very well. He scored one
02:28and assisted two last night in Frankfurt's win against Freiburg, which takes his tally
02:32to 20 goals and 14 assists in 26 games this season. That's 34 GA in 26 games to make
02:41it sound a little bit better. This guy is phenomenal. And just to double down on that,
02:45if you contextualise the game last night that Omar Mahmoud played for Eintracht Frankfurt,
02:49he knows he's joining Manchester City. That could be weighing on his mind. But no, one goal,
02:54two assists, 76 touches, 30 accurate passes, 88% pass accuracy, 11 ground rules won, which
03:01was the most in the game of any player, eight touches in the opposition box, six recoveries.
03:06He was fouled five times, which was the most of any player on the pitch, five successful
03:10dribbles, again, the most of any player on the pitch, and four chances created. So in short,
03:17he's good. Now quickly touching on the here and now, this is how Eintracht Frankfurt like to set
03:21up and did do last night against Freiburg. We won't focus on every player, although I will just
03:26mention this guy, Mario Götze. Now let me know this in the comments. I genuinely, genuinely
03:32thought this. I don't know if this is some weird Mandela effect kind of situation. I thought Götze
03:37would retire from football about two years ago until I then looked at the lineup last night
03:41and saw him starting in the middle. I knew he used to play for Frankfurt, but in my mind,
03:45that was like two seasons ago and he's hung his boots up early. I don't know who I've got him
03:49confused with, but genuinely, this took me off guard. Götze plays for Eintracht Frankfurt,
03:54but most importantly, so does Omar Mahmoud in the two up top with Hugo Ekotike, if I've said that
03:59right. And it's a bit of a little and large partnership akin to maybe what we might see
04:03between Mahmoud and Erling Haaland. And just to overlay Ekotike's heat map as well this season,
04:09here you can see he's very all action, involved on the left-hand side, involved on the right-hand
04:13side and involved centrally as well. So he's not really a number nine per se that sticks
04:18to his position. He likes to get across the front three, which is something Manchester
04:22City have been desperately lacking at the moment and also since Alvarez left.
04:26So let's talk about that. This is City's average lineup last season and often Julian Alvarez
04:31used to kind of on paper start in midfield, but he drifted into sort of that second striker area
04:36alongside Erling Haaland and often City in possession would end up shaping up like this,
04:41a 4-4-2 with Rodri rest in peace and Matteo Kovacic or Bernardo Silva joining him in the pivot.
04:47And it sometimes looked like this and then out of possession, it sometimes reverted to more of
04:51a 4-3-3 with Alvarez being able to defensively contribute. Now, if you overlay Alvarez's heat
04:56map for Manchester City last season, you can see here it does look very, very similar to Omar
05:02Mahmoud. He's involved on the left, involved on the right, but involved centrally as well.
05:05Likes to get across the entire front three. And if you think about City's current attackers,
05:10we know what Erling Haaland likes to do. His heat map is just a little blob. And then you've got
05:14Savino who likes to hug one side of the pitch. Doku likes to hug the other. Depending on what
05:18side they play, they can both do it on the right and the left-hand side, but they stick to that
05:22side. And then you've got Phil Foden who is more of a midfielder, really. He's less of a forward.
05:27I know he can sort of get involved in the goals, but City have been lacking in an all-action
05:31forward who gets involved in every area of the pitch. And I think Mahmoud gives them that back.
05:36Funnily enough as well, I think Pep's already tried to address this in the summer transfer
05:40window after Alvarez left by bringing Gundogan in on a free, but it's massively backfired. I
05:45think Pep's thinking was that when Haaland's injured, Gundogan can play false nine as Haaland's
05:50back up, much like he did so successfully three, four years ago. But that was three, four years ago.
05:55The man is now 34 years old. He probably spoke to the board in the summer, Ilkay Gundogan,
06:00and Cheeky probably said to him, you're going to play 30 games this season.
06:03And then when the entire squad dropped like flies, he just ended up standing in the centre
06:07circle like Tom Hanks on Omaha beach and saving Private Ryan. Just completely shell-shocked.
06:13So yeah, Mahmoud is set to come in. These are his average positions here. You can see mostly
06:17he likes to play centre forward, the striker role, but can also play on the left-hand side.
06:22So it gives City that much needed versatility. There you go. Video done. See you soon guys.
06:28No, but seriously, it's good that he can play left wing for City because it allows Pep to
06:31rotate Doca and Savino much more. We know right now, Jack Grealish isn't getting a look in.
06:36And as for James McAtee, well, as for Pep Guardiola, as we know, any child that is
06:42birthed through the academy must be banished into the shadow realm. So what else does he
06:46improve then for City? What's empirical? What can we numerically define that he will make
06:50Manchester City better at? Well, a very simple one is free kicks. He actually scored two consecutive
06:56free kicks in two consecutive matches on November the 2nd against VFL Bochum and November the 7th
07:01against Slavia Prague in the Europa League. And Manchester City's last direct free kick goal
07:06was in April last year. And it was a deflected goal by Phil Foden against Aston Villa. Wasn't
07:12even a proper free kick really. So of course he improves Manchester City in that area,
07:16but where's the nuance, Adam? Well, I'll tell you, let's compare him statistically to Erling
07:22Haaland. In terms of attacking numbers, Marmouche and Erling Haaland are actually very, very similar.
07:27Haaland scored 16 goals this season to Marmouche's 15. This is of course in the Bundesliga and the
07:32Premier League. Marmouche rather impressively though, massively outperforming is XG as opposed
07:37to Erling Haaland. Goals per game and shots per game are very, very similar. Haaland missing more
07:41big chances though from a closer range. And also they have the exact same goal conversion rate at
07:4719% this season. But this is what's most important. Now, if you consider the fact that Marmouche is a
07:52striker by trade, leads the line often for Frankfurt alongside someone else, look at the creative stats
07:58as opposed to Erling Haaland's. It's just a chasm, 9-1 up on assists. You know, 11 big chances created
08:04to two, but most importantly as well, his average touches per 90, Erling Haaland 23, Marmouche 47.8.
08:13So clearly he likes to just get on the ball more and be more all action and potentially be that
08:18link man from midfield to attack. One of the main criticisms of Erling Haaland, and I'm not sure
08:22whether it's justified or not, I think it might be more dependent on the lack of service he's had,
08:26is that when he doesn't have service and he's not involved in the game, he's just completely
08:30useless and impotent. Take this for example here, this is the fewest touches he's ever had in a
08:35Premier League game for City, and it was against Arsenal last season at the Etihad Stadium. And this
08:40has been happening for a while, I mean that's his fewest there with seven, but he only averages 23
08:44touches a game this season. I think Haaland now needs that middleman again, like he used to have
08:50in the treble winning season for City that was Kevin De Bruyne back in the day. He needs that
08:54man to link midfield, to attack, and play Haaland in a little bit more. I'm sorry, just play him in,
09:00like we've seen this so many times for Borussia Dortmund, I know it's a more expansive league,
09:05but Haaland was a bit of a roadrunner, he'd have balls slid in behind to him, and now he likes to
09:09sort of just linger at the back post. But he does need that middleman, take this goal for example
09:14back when he had one, this was against Arsenal the season prior to the game where he had seven
09:18touches. This opening goal that De Bruyne scored early on, a long ball to Haaland headed down,
09:23and you've got that player there in the pocket who can drive with the ball. De Bruyne can no
09:28longer do this because his legs have simply gone, Marmouche can because he's nearly 10 years
09:33younger. Now just to look at City's line-up from that Arsenal game back in 2023, on paper it'd look
09:39like a 4-3-3, but as we know John Stones would invert, Rodri had come here, Kyle Walker came
09:43across to form a back three, and it'd look something a little bit like this. But De Bruyne
09:49in that game really did play that second striker role and played off Erling Haaland, so he would
09:53come into these spaces and won the knockdown in this area of the pitch. But the goal itself
09:59is so explosive, it's individual brilliance by De Bruyne, and I know it's likely City are never
10:04going to get a De Bruyne again, that player simply doesn't exist and comes around once every
10:08generation. But De Bruyne's ability to carry the ball has waned since that season, he's 34 years
10:14old now, he physically can't do that. De Bruyne is averaging 2.6 progressive carries per 90 this
10:20season, compare that to Omar Mahmoud, who's is 3.96 per 90, he's carried the ball 67 times this
10:27season already. It's a massive upturn and it's simply about having fresher legs and a younger
10:32squad. Pep has let this squad get too old. Now how could this line-up for Manchester City this
10:37season? Well if we go with Stefan Ortega in goal, then a back four of, let's go with Rico Lewis,
10:42Ruben Diaz, Manwala Kanji, and for the sake of this I'll go with Nathan Ake for the sake of this,
10:47but of course it could be Vardyol, you never know what Pep's going to play right. But Rico Lewis
10:51could invert, you could then form a back three here, using the Kanji, Diaz, and Ake, and then
10:56yes of course Rodri right now doesn't exist. So you could go with Rico Lewis, Matteo Kovacic,
11:02Marmouche, and then maybe someone like Bernardo Silva, who's got a bit more bite in that midfield,
11:06and if you swap Marmouche for De Bruyne in that system right now, and of course by the way it's
11:11like Foden and Savino out wide, Haaland up top, then it loses its legs massively and that ability
11:17to sustain the ball high up the pitch, that death by a thousand passes style of play that we know
11:22City like to play, they've not been able to do that as effectively this season and they get picked
11:27off in transition way way way too much, and Marmouche could help keep the ball up there,
11:31carry it forward, and just sustain that pressure by adding fresher legs and a younger face. Pep
11:36really doesn't have an answer to Rodri's absence with the current players in his team at his
11:40disposal, so that's why I think he's signing a centre-back and a striker to sort of bridge that
11:45gap and revert back to a system like this, that can sustain the ball higher up the pitch and
11:50concede less turnovers, and Kuchinov of course is a very very aggressive defender, if he was to play
11:56you know at right or left centre-back he's very aggressive in the 50-50, so he'd be able to snuff
12:00out any transitions that may or may not happen in this system, I just think it's a way that Pep can
12:07revert back to the ways of old without necessarily needing Rodri, if you know what I mean.
12:12And finally to talk about his goal scoring acumen, well Erling Haaland gets criticised for
12:16being a one-dimensional striker or a goal hogger, I mean people talk about Erling Haaland like he's
12:21playing a game of Wembley doubles at Power League, it is very very disrespectful, but I guess they
12:26also do kind of have a point. In terms of the way he attacks crosses, this is something that really
12:31does frustrate me, if you cast your mind back to the days of Sergio Aguero, he used to score so
12:36many goals getting in front of the centre-back and scoring at the near post, you know, nicking it
12:41in front of the centre-back and sliding it past the keeper or slamming it in the roof of the net
12:45like here against Liverpool. Now what Erling Haaland likes to do, which is somewhat understandable
12:50because of how tall and lanky he is, is linger and hang at the back post, you look at this goal here
12:54against Sheffield United, this is an atypical example, but he likes to do this a lot, he very
12:59very rarely varies the way he attacks crosses, crosses now often for City are just chipped and
13:04dinked to the back post and it's getting a little bit predictable, we need someone to come in and
13:09spice it up with a little bit of attacking variation. Now you remember Marmouche's heat
13:13map from the start of the video, I think this is very very key for Marmouche's understated ability
13:18to vary the way he attacks the penalty area, you take this goal here for example, this is the first
13:24one I wanted to show you because it's him being patient and lingering off the left-hand side at
13:28the back post, he's not necessarily making a run, he's just knowing where the space is and waiting
13:33for his moment, this is an understated attribute for any attacker. The second goal here though is
13:38very Erling Haaland-esque in the sense that he attacks the six-yard box on the break, it's a
13:42direct run and it's a lovely chip over the keeper as well, his actual skill, his techers is very
13:48understated too, but yeah this goal is very atypical of someone who finishes the moves off
13:53and leads the line so to speak, so he's also got that in his locker too. Something else I think
13:57City have been missing for probably since the days of Riyad Mahrez is a goal like this one right here,
14:02the ability to manipulate the movement of a defender with quick feet and changing of direction,
14:07Phil Foden can do it a little bit, I think Savino probably can too, but he's finding his feet,
14:12he's five years younger than Marmouche, Marmouche is ready-made now 25 and he's been doing this
14:16on a consistent basis, he can dribble with the ball which is something that I think Pepper's
14:22tried to bring in in the last couple of years but maybe unsuccessfully, we know Docu's a very good
14:261v1 dribbler but he just don't have the end product. But one last clip, the clip that I
14:31think trumps all in terms of what Manchester City need to get out of this guy is this clip
14:36right here against none other than Bayern Munich as well, it is an offside goal but the ball gets
14:41pinged into his feet and it's his touch to get it out of his feet and create a goal-scoring chance.
14:46Number 36 here will absolutely pay for his sins because Marmouche would have got on the end of
14:50this ball and of course would have been onside but the way that one touch takes two defenders
14:55out the game and puts him through on goal from a position where it just didn't look possible
14:59a mere fraction of a second earlier is so, so important because to be honest Erling Haaland
15:05and it's not his fault because of how big he is, he can't get the ball out his feet so you can't really
15:09play a direct pass. The ability to get that ball out of his feet so quickly and create a
15:13goal-scoring chance is just absolutely, it's gold dust, it's absolute gold dust at the top level.
15:19So yes that's Omar Marmouche, Manchester City's new man, the Egyptian prince I guess, I guess
15:25that's the respectful name for him until Salah leaves the league and Salah's chasing a
15:30ballon d'or but if you actually tell Omar Marmouche that there's a there's a right side of
15:35the goal that he can score in then maybe he'll win a ballon d'or too. Anyway guys yes I hope
15:42you enjoyed the video and have a lovely rest of your week but yes guys don't forget to subscribe
15:48and I will see you very, very soon. I've been Adam Monk, take care, goodbye.