MEDI1TV Afrique : Afrique : quels moteurs de croissance ? Explications Hicham Hafid - 29/01/2025
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00:00Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and welcome to Focus Eco.
00:12The prospects are rather good for the economy of the African continent.
00:16An economy that should maintain its dynamism in 2025 with a 4% growth.
00:22These are the forecasts of the French Development Agency.
00:25Africa should therefore know this year a growth close to that of Asia.
00:30An African continent that displays remarkable resilience.
00:34Africa is imposing itself as a land of opportunity.
00:37However, some risks persist.
00:40Debt remains a major point of vigilance.
00:43Africa, a continent with diversified economies.
00:47What are the main expected growth drivers?
00:50What are the risks related to the debt of African countries?
00:53Answers in this Focus Eco with Michem Hafez.
00:56You are a professor and researcher at the University of Mohamed V in Rabat.
01:00It is a pleasure to have you with us.
01:03The pleasure is mine, Madam.
01:06We are talking about a 4% growth for the African continent.
01:12What do you think are the main drivers of this growth?
01:16Is it an optimistic figure? Is it a positive figure?
01:20What do you think of this figure?
01:23Of course, it is a positive figure.
01:26Insofar as this growth is an extensive growth.
01:34Insofar as it is mainly driven by the exploitation of natural resources.
01:39In particular, oil, gas, certain mineral products and agricultural products.
01:44It is also driven by demand.
01:47A demographic dynamic growth.
01:50In particular, the emergence of a middle class that becomes more and more eager to consume.
01:56It is a positive and important growth.
02:02But it is not resilient.
02:07It does not allow Africa to be resilient to internal and external shocks.
02:11In particular, the shocks of foreign supply and demand
02:15that negatively impact economic growth in Africa.
02:20So, when you say internal and external shocks,
02:24that is to say in relation to the international situation today?
02:28Indeed.
02:30The Ukrainian crisis has considerably impacted the African economy
02:38in relation to the increase in the price of goods,
02:42as well as the consumption of goods from abroad.
02:45It has also impacted inflation and internal shocks.
02:52It is at the level of institutional and political instability
02:56within certain African countries that impacts the dynamics of economic growth,
03:01migration and climate change.
03:05Because today we see that a large part of the African economy
03:09is strongly dependent on climate change and climate allies.
03:13This obviously impacts the food sovereignty of Africa
03:17and, as a consequence, the food security.
03:20Okay.
03:21So, Africa is a continent, at least according to the analysts,
03:24with diversified economies.
03:26Growth is not the same whether you are in one country or another.
03:31Which country is currently benefiting the most from the opportunities
03:40that this continent offers?
03:43If we look at the 54 countries of the African continent,
03:48we could classify them in the form of four important blocs
03:52that achieve slightly different levels of growth.
03:57The first is a bloc that is made up of countries that export oil and gas.
04:02We are talking about Nigeria, Algeria, Gabon and Angola.
04:07These are large exporters of energy products
04:10and they are obviously achieving economic growth.
04:14But this growth remains strongly dependent on the oscillation
04:18of the prices of these goods at the international level.
04:22There is a second bloc that is based on tourism.
04:27I am talking about Egypt, Mauritius, South Africa and Morocco.
04:37There is another bloc that is based on economic growth
04:42and economic diversification.
04:44I am talking about sectors that have become employers
04:51and producers of wealth,
04:53such as the automotive and aeronautical industries.
04:56I could mention Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and others.
05:01There is a fourth bloc that is based on the export of resources
05:05other than oil and gas.
05:07Most of these countries are concentrated in Central Africa,
05:12such as Gabon and other countries.
05:15A continent with contrasting economies.
05:19How is Morocco doing today?
05:24Morocco is in a comfortable situation compared to other African countries.
05:35Since the 2000s until today,
05:38Morocco has been able to work on the diversification of partners
05:41and the diversification of its productive structure.
05:44Today, we see that there are huge efforts in terms of institutional reforms
05:51and also in terms of the improvement of infrastructures.
05:55This infrastructure constitutes a major challenge for the rest of African countries
05:59because today we see that all levers of economic growth and development
06:06are strongly dependent on the improvement of infrastructures.
06:09Morocco has been aware of these challenges,
06:14on which it has worked for 20 years.
06:18Today, we see that the port of Tangimède is ranked among the best-developed ports
06:25worldwide.
06:27There is also the port of Akhlaq, which is being built
06:30and which could be a regional hub compared to West Africa
06:34and Africa as a whole.
06:36The improvement of infrastructures and the diversification of partners
06:40could benefit in terms of the financing of certain structural and productive projects
06:45and also the improvement of the productive structure,
06:48which is becoming more and more important
06:50and which avoids the country from being dependent on external shocks,
06:54notably the oscillation of raw material prices.
06:57Diversification of partnerships, infrastructure, connectivity,
07:02economic stability, but also political stability.
07:05Morocco, due to its geographical position and the current structural projects,
07:11is positioning itself as a country leader on the continent
07:17as a hub of connections and a crossroads of exchanges
07:22between the African continent and the rest of the world.
07:26Due to its geographical position and its openness to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic,
07:35it is forced to become a regional hub or a crossroads
07:40between the other continents and Africa.
07:43And also due to its African policy, which has developed since the 2000s
07:48and which today constitutes an important lever in Africa itself
07:54and also a catalyst for development between the other continents.
08:00And here I am talking about Latin America, North America and also Europe,
08:04because due to its geographical position, due to its confidence,
08:08its credibility and its confidence in the institutions,
08:11I could say that Morocco is well positioned today
08:15in the context of the attraction, God willing,
08:17which first invests in Morocco to contribute to economic growth
08:23and to dynamize Morocco's economy and, as a consequence,
08:26to make available its accumulation of know-how and investment
08:32at the disposal of the African continent, in particular of Central West Africa,
08:35in order to be able, of course, to face the internal and external challenges.
08:39Of course, today, Africa is facing the operationalization of the ZLICAF,
08:44which is, of course, an important lever to encourage intra-African trade
08:50and also to realize scale economies.
08:53But also in the face of climate change,
08:56because if we look at the statistics provided by the FAO,
08:59the agricultural yield of some strategic products
09:03considered to be strategic by the FAO is very low compared to other continents.
09:08I am just giving a figure.
09:09If we look, for example, at the yield of Africa in terms of cereals,
09:15and here I am citing three important products,
09:17namely rice, wheat and corn,
09:19it is very low compared to the world average.
09:21It is 4,400 kg per hectare,
09:26while the world average is 4,700 kg per hectare.
09:31So, today, I think that the Moroccan experience,
09:34and especially the role of the OECD in improving productivity
09:42and agricultural yield,
09:44could, of course, be a development lever,
09:47especially to deal with food security in Africa.
09:50So, Morocco has a model to follow,
09:53a model that could perhaps be exported to other countries on the continent
09:58with an exchange of know-how,
10:01an experience sharing,
10:03economic prospects, as we said, for the positive continent,
10:084% growth,
10:10but today we are talking about a challenge, which is debt.
10:14As I said in the preamble,
10:16debt remains a point of vigilance.
10:18What are the risks related to the debt of African countries
10:21and how could these risks impact the long-term growth prospects of the continent?
10:28If we look at the challenges faced by the African continent,
10:32it is the financing,
10:33because today, in the face of sluggishness,
10:36we are also facing the improvement of infrastructure
10:38to facilitate exchanges between nations,
10:41so they should invest massively in infrastructure.
10:44These infrastructures require colossal financing.
10:47If we look at financing,
10:5070% of Africa's wealth is debt.
11:00This constitutes a real challenge for development
11:04and also for the economic dynamics of Africa.
11:07Today, Africa is facing the challenge of foreign power rivalry
11:20for the massive exploitation of natural resources.
11:23I think that African countries should think about
11:29how to benefit from this diversification of partners in Africa
11:33and from this economic rivalry in terms of financing.
11:36The diversification of financing sources
11:39could be an important lever for the financing of infrastructures
11:44and for the financing of certain structural projects,
11:47notably education, education, training,
11:51to maximize the productive capacities of the African continent.
11:56Because today, if we look at Africa as a country,
12:00the independence of all countries,
12:03all countries have tried all the recipes provided by the international institutions,
12:06but unfortunately, they have not known an economic link.
12:09The problem does not lie in liberalization or in the opening of these countries,
12:13but in the strengthening of productive capacities.
12:17If we can talk about productive capacities,
12:19we have human capital, we have institutions,
12:22we have infrastructures, and we have technology.
12:26How can we create or develop systems or human capital
12:33that is able to absorb technology transfer?
12:36And this, the improvement of these productive capacities,
12:39requires extremely important financing.
12:41And Africa is also facing the challenge of diversification of partners,
12:45of debt, and also the opportunity to benefit from this diversification
12:49in the context of financing.
12:51So, find solutions, at least African ones,
12:54that are adapted to the needs of the continent,
12:56and also take advantage of the wealth of Africa, which is its youth.
12:59Thank you, Mr. Hicham Hafez.
13:02I remind you that you are a research professor at the University of Mohamed V in Rabat.
13:07It was a pleasure to have you with us today in this Focus Eco.
13:10The pleasure is mine, Madam. Thank you.
13:13This is the end of Focus Eco for today.
13:15We will meet again tomorrow with a new guest.
13:17You are welcome. Have a very good day.
13:24Focus Eco