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00:00The prop perspective with the Jack of all trades. How we start
00:04each and every week live on a Monday morning on the early line
00:07on SportsGrid. That is TV Tom Vecchio of SportsGrid here to
00:11get you set with all the changes we are seeing around
00:15the NBA past the midway point of this season in front of a
00:1910-game slate in the association on this Monday
00:22night and of course, Tom, how we all kind of change our
00:25evaluations now for the Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas
00:29Favreau. Thanks so much for being here bright and early on
00:32this Monday. Of course, as usual, thanks for having me.
00:36There's a ton to get to across not just the NBA tonight for
00:40tonight's games, but obviously the landscape of the teams
00:43moving forward and what we're going to see from them. We can
00:45touch on the Super Bowl a little bit. Let's get to it and
00:48we will touch on the Super Bowl. Vecchio has already been
00:51here twice in the week before Super Bowl week to look at the
00:54prop markets. We'll get his thoughts on where he sees
00:57things right now officially on the Monday of Super Bowl week
01:01ahead of the biggest Sunday of each and every NFL season 6
01:04days away, but the first Sunday without an actual NFL football
01:08game Vecchio for the first time since early September was
01:11yesterday and in the first 12 minutes of Sunday, a
01:15blockbuster trade that left everybody stunned and shocked
01:19Luka Doncic traded by the Mavericks to the Lakers in
01:24return. The Mavs get back Anthony Davis, Max Christie in
01:28a first round selection and as Joe has highlighted, do not
01:31forget the Utah Jazz Jalen Hood Shafino makes his way to Salt
01:35Lake in those two second round selections. Vecchio. I think
01:39it's fair to say everybody was shocked by this news wherever
01:43have been early in the Sunday morning hours or perhaps when
01:47everybody woke up on Sunday morning, but now that we've had
01:51a little bit more than 24 hours to settle and react. Have you
01:56been able to wrap your mind around why this deal was done?
02:00Oh, so I was on in game live last night with Joe Madden and
02:04Scott Wenzel and we were talking about this just kind of
02:07briefly about the same sorts of things and I think this is a
02:09this is a play for the Lakers moving forward over the next
02:13set of years 510 years. Lebron runs higher 23 years wherever
02:15might be they can build around Luka and you know, maybe the
02:19Mavericks got some indication from Luka that he wasn't going
02:22to resign in two or three years whenever he's up and that's
02:24he's up for a supermax at that point. So that is a massive
02:27massive investment in the team. Obviously with the ownership
02:30changing whatever they want to do like there's there's parts
02:33of this that we don't know and we may never know so good for
02:36the Lakers. They have this player that they can build
02:38around for the next decade. Ultimately, you know, we're
02:40trying to like bring this down. It's like what can we actually
02:42get from this? Obviously, I expect Lebron to take like
02:45let's say half a step back and I'm as I said last night to
02:48Joe and Scott like I'm interested in Lebron assist
02:51props moving forward. How does the offense get to like meld
02:55together once Luke is back and and fully involved as does
02:58Lebron look to play more of a facilitator role rather than a
03:02pure score role and then we can get some value from the assist
03:05market rather than his points. So where do we look Anthony
03:10Davis once he gets back to Dallas? Obviously, I guess they
03:14think defense wins championships. He doesn't have
03:18to be a center which is good news, but whose team
03:21offensively is it moving forward here? Tom at this point
03:25the Dallas Mavericks. It's I mean it's it's going to be I
03:28don't know Kyrie and AD. I'm like a 1A1B who's ever got the
03:32hot hand and I think that can make it very difficult to you
03:36know decide like oh who is the best prop tonight who we're
03:38going to be trusting because they're going to be games where
03:39AD goes like 30 and 15 and Kyrie may have 20 and 12 like
03:43where he flies over his assist prop, but he falls well short
03:46of his points just because someone else has the hot hand
03:48and maybe the spacing opens up time for Klay Thompson to get
03:52more involved. He's had a bit of an up and down year. So like
03:54it's actually going to be very difficult. I think from the
03:56Mavs perspective once we have like a decent enough sample
03:59size. I think that's what we'll get like right from the jump.
04:02You could either be very right or very wrong, but that does
04:04open up the opportunity for a value for some of their
04:07secondary or you know, tertiary role players. Maybe
04:09Gafford steps up in terms of rebound. He's not doing as much
04:11scoring etc. etc. The Mavericks have moved back in terms of
04:16their price to win the Western Conference nearly doubling that
04:19number ten to one now 19 to one the Lakers price to win the
04:22West 25 to one entering this weekend now plus 850 third best
04:28number behind OKC and Denver. This was a blockbuster trade
04:33that nobody saw coming another blockbuster deal last night
04:36that perhaps was more expected. De'Aaron Fox traded to San
04:40Antonio. Zach Levine a part of a three team deal that included
04:43Chicago makes his way to California's Capitol. The Bulls
04:47get a crop of players and a first round pick, but it does
04:51bear repeating because this is NBA trade deadline week as well
04:56as Super Bowl week trade deadline is Thursday afternoon
04:59around the Association. So note these numbers to win the Larry
05:03O'Brien trophy right now the Celtics the reigning champs and
05:07the title favorites all year still in that position, but OKC
05:11making up ground quick. The Lakers were 40 to one entering
05:15the weekend now 19 to one. So Becky, of course we put a pin
05:19in where these odds are at the moment, but we also ask you a
05:23question. Where do you think the best value is right now in
05:27terms of the NBA championship odds for it's a team and it's
05:31not on that list and let's turn to the Houston Rockets at 41
05:35and I'm not saying I think the Rockets are the best team in
05:37the league because they aren't but Ben we can look back a
05:40couple years when you had a Sacramento Kings ticket. If
05:43you remember that and the Rockets are in third right now
05:47in the in the West right and whether they end up third
05:50second fourth where it might be there in the spot to host a
05:53first round game and at 40 to one to win the NBA championship
05:57and it's 17 to one which is 66 on the board to win the West.
06:01This is a spot where you can get them at an awesome price and
06:04then they will host that first round match up. They can win
06:06that first round match up and then you're working with a lot
06:09of leg room in terms of do you want to cash out hedge in that
06:12second round? So I don't think the Rockets are the best team.
06:14I want to make that clear. I think Oklahoma City Denver are
06:17much better than obviously the Celtics on the other side and
06:20the Cavs, but we will have a ticket that is awesome to have
06:23because some of these teams are essentially going to cannibalize
06:26each other. The Grizzlies, the Clippers and the Lakers are all
06:29not going to make it into the second round and having the
06:31Rockets as a home court team in the first round will be the
06:34spot to have.
06:37Alright, so let's talk about some of these games here
06:39tonight. Some of the props that you might be looking at here.
06:43Give us one because I see that you're going with my favorite
06:47guy, a former Oklahoma State player there who should be MVP,
06:51but I said it out loud. There you go. What do you think in
06:54time, Tom? Yeah, we have a ton of games to get to tonight. So
06:58let's turn to Kate Cunningham and his points prop is sitting
07:02at 27 and a half and it's sitting at minus 106. If you
07:04look at the entire points props for all the players in this
07:07game, Kate Cunningham is the highest. Instead of betting on
07:10his points prop, which you can certainly do at 27 and a half.
07:12Obviously, like I said, he's been awesome this year. He's
07:14piling up the shots and he has a all-star nod for him this
07:17year. Let's turn to him to be the highest points score, which
07:20is sitting at plus 105, which is essentially what his points
07:23prop at 27 and a half indicates is that he has the highest
07:26points prop and if he's going to hit the over on that, there's
07:28like a scenario where he's obviously the highest points
07:30score. So let's shoot for a little bit of plus money. It's
07:32not like some massive number. It's only plus 105. I
07:35understand that, but that's what the points prop is
07:37indicating. Now, you could play both. You could play like a
07:39normal unit on the 27 and a half, a little bit, maybe a
07:41half unit, a quarter unit on the plus 105. There are ways to
07:44get value when we're essentially getting the same
07:47outcome from Kate Cunningham. Now, there is also a scenario
07:50where he hits, he's the highest points score and he still hits
07:52the under on his points. I don't see that happening versus
07:54Atlanta. I think Kate Cunningham's going to drop 30,
07:5735 points tonight, but I want to shoot for that plus money.
08:00And Vecchio, you mentioned the Houston Rockets, third best
08:03record now in the Western Conference, slightly behind
08:06Memphis from that perspective. They suffered a weird defeat
08:10the other day in Brooklyn, but now they head to Madison
08:12Square Garden tonight to take on a team with the third best
08:16record out East. That would be the Knicks. I will be there. My
08:20first ever Knicks game attended inside MSG. So Vecchio, I'm
08:26going to need to play for this game. What is it?
08:28Yeah, let's turn to Carlton Towns and it's got to be under
08:3113 and a half rebounds. It's got a little bit of juice at
08:33minus 136. A lot of people are saying he's mean for a bounce
08:36back spot after a done of a game the other night versus the
08:38Lakers, but this number is just too high. And looking back at
08:41this game, like, yeah, we see these games with 15, 16, 20
08:43rebounds earlier in January, but it's just a bit too much.
08:46He's consistently getting into foul trouble and the Rockets
08:49are really solid rebounding team. So yeah, he can bounce
08:52back in going for 30 and 10, but him having 30 and 15 or it's
08:56just a little bit too much for me. And then also turning to
08:58Keegan Murray over 12 half points. I think there's
09:00obviously some opportunity in the Kings with Fox leaving
09:02who's going to step up and take that role. And we know that
09:04Murray has been a very solid shooter for especially from
09:07deep. When he started his career a little bit lower this
09:09year, but I do expect him to play a bigger role on offense
09:11moving forward. The Jack of all trades. Believe me, we'll
09:14have Super Bowl props later in the week for everybody to
09:17hammer down into Tom Vecchio. Thank you. More around the
09:20association next. We welcome you back to the early line, a
09:2410-game slate around the association on this Monday
09:28following a very dramatic and seismic shifting weekend in
09:33the association. Luka Doncic is now a Los Angeles Laker.
09:36Anthony Davis makes his way to Dallas. The Aaron Fox now with
09:40the Spurs, Zach Levine in California's capital with the
09:43Kings. The Jazz got involved as did the Chicago Bulls, but
09:49let's get to all the games. We have tonight on a Monday as I
09:53just shared with Tom Vecchio. I've been to Madison Square
09:56Garden, Joe. Not all that far away from us here in Midtown
10:00Manhattan. Many times in my life. Big East tournaments,
10:03Rangers games, concerts, other college basketball affairs. I
10:08have never actually been to a Knicks game. That changes
10:12tonight. The New York Knicks, third best team in the Eastern
10:15Conference. The Houston Rockets as of this moment after a weird
10:19home loss as a twelve and a half point favorite over the
10:21weekend against the Nets. Third best record in the Western
10:25Conference, and it's going to be a great matchup tonight in
10:29MSG. Joe, how do you see this game playing out? Note, again,
10:34I will be in attendance. Yeah, and it really it's all about
10:38who's playing in this game, Ben. We are keeping an eye on
10:43Ananobi, who left at that game early, unfortunately there,
10:49which is which is not good. We know Josh Hart also still
10:53questionable because of his right knee soreness. So we gotta
10:58keep an eye on who's playing for them in Houston. Yeah.
11:01Well, Houston, Albert Sangoon has been missing the last
11:04couple of games. It hasn't gone well for them. Van Fleet also
11:08still questionable. I would imagine Madison Square Garden
11:12has a pretty good healing power, Ben, in prime time where
11:17sometimes these guys miraculously rub some dirt on it
11:20and get back in there. I think the total is correlated to who
11:24you think is going to win this game tonight, Ben. If you like
11:27Houston, I'm back in the under. If you like the New York Knicks,
11:31we're probably going to get a bit of a shootout here tonight,
11:35which is really interesting, Joe, and the line has worked up
11:37to six and a half in favor of the Knickerbockers. By the way,
11:40you would think Tom Thibodeau, his teams grind it out on the
11:44defensive side of the floor. The Knicks last week had two
11:47consecutive games scoring at least 140 points in the totals
11:52for New York as of late have been a lot closer to 240. Yeah,
11:55then 220 where we see that number tonight, 223 and a half
12:01really good matchups up and down the docket, including a
12:06team in Sacramento that looks a little bit different. Now, the
12:09Kings make a road trip to the Twin Cities to take on the
12:13Timberwolves. Not sure we're going to see Zach Levine make
12:17his debut tonight. If we get confirmation that happens, we
12:20will let you know. Minnesota lost to Dallas in last year's
12:24Western Conference Finals. Probably looking around like,
12:26oh boy, Western Conference looks a little bit different on
12:29this Monday morning approaching trade deadline week. Let's make
12:32a run. T-Wolves four and a half point home favor, Joe. Yeah, and
12:37this is the final game of a six-game road trip here for
12:40Sacramento, who's going to look a little bit different now with
12:44the trade of Fox here. Both of these teams are looking to
12:50finish. Certainly, the Kings are looking to finish this on a
12:53high note this trip. They've lost, what, four of the first
12:57five games on a trip? It has not been a good run for them at
13:01all. We did see Minnesota finally turn a corner,
13:04certainly offensively as of late, but they too coming off a
13:09loss here. So, to me, the edge is with Minnesota in this one
13:14here. Never liked these teams on that last leg of a long road
13:18trip, and now all of a sudden, one of your players and leaders
13:21is no longer there. Tough spot for Sacramento. Precarious
13:26season for Sacramento. They fired Mike Brown, got off to a
13:29hot start with Doug Christie, but then De'Aaron Fox, a staple
13:33of the franchise the last eight seasons, is now no longer
13:37there. We're going to San Antonio to play with Victor
13:40Webanyama. We'll see what spark Zach Levine provides when he
13:43makes his Kings debut. The T-Wallace have been booked as a
13:47favorite often. 38 of 49 games this year. 27 and 22 overall.
13:52Just 22 and 16 outright as a favorite. That's not all that
13:57great. 13 and 25 against the spread. They lay four and a
14:02half tonight. We are calling it a finals preview,
14:06question mark. But is it really Oklahoma City? 11 and a
14:11half point favorite at home tonight. That being the Thunder
14:14hosting the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks on a three-game slide.
14:17OKC, the best team in the Western Conference. 232 and a
14:21half is that total listed right now on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
14:25What's the play tonight, Joe and OKC? I don't know. I mean, as
14:29long as they're not playing Memphis, I guess maybe the Bucks
14:33are live getting points here, but they can't seem to beat the
14:37Memphis team at all as they lost again. I think they've
14:41lost now the last eight times that they've played them. Second
14:45of a back-to-back tough spot here for Milwaukee. And quite
14:49honestly, they're starting to look a little old and slower
14:52than watching them. We saw what Memphis did to them in the
14:56second half yesterday, and it just looked like they left them
14:59in the dust. OKC more than capable of doing exactly the
15:04same thing here. Plus, who's playing, who's not playing on
15:07the second of a back-to-back from Milwaukee right now. Four
15:10game road trip for Milwaukee. Returned home last night to
15:13take on Memphis as a home favorite. They got beat by the
15:16Grizz and gave up a ton of points. In fact, Joe, this week
15:20has been awful for the Bucks on this three-game slide. Dames
15:24second return to Portland. They get beat by the Blazers as a
15:27double-digit favorite. They get beat by the Spurs in Wembley
15:31in a big way on Friday night. And of course, losing to the
15:34Grizzlies last night. Change of venue, second leg of a back-to-back,
15:38and you're going up against the Western Conference's best team
15:41in OKC, 27-16-3 against the spread this year as a favorite.
15:47And maybe some revenge for the Thunder, I should say, in a
15:51rematch of the NBA Cup title game. Elsewhere, Joe, in the
15:55association, again, plenty of action. Let's head to San
15:59Francisco. One of our final games of the night, the Warriors
16:02and the Magic. Three-point favorite for Golden State, 2-12,
16:05and a hook is the total. What's the play out by the bag?
16:08Yeah, well, you're thinking it's the Magic, and it probably
16:12should be looking at an under here, and that's the way I'm
16:17going to look here, simply because, listen, the Warriors,
16:20they need a win. And the Magic feel like they've been on the
16:23road forever, so I don't trust them offensively. I think it's
16:27a dead under here tonight, this one. Right now, the Orlando
16:31Magic, in their last nine games, have only scored more than
16:35100 twice. They've gone under, of course, in five of the last
16:40seven as well.