The number 10.0 is just as inferior to the number 10.1 as the number 9.9 is to 10.0; likewise the number 10.1 is just as superior to the number 10.0 as 10.0 is to the number 9.9. There's nothing profound about round numbers, nothing that inherently makes them more legitimate or meaningful than any other number to use as benchmarks for accomplishments. But, in utilizing the almighty triple-double -- which fundamentally is simply statistical cherry-picking ... just bad, lazy cherry-picking -- as its vessel in 2017, the societal siren song of the round number reared its ghastly head in the ghastliest way when it came time to vote for what ultimately and unfortunately devolved into an extraordinarily narrative-based award: Most Valuable Player of the NBA.
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00:00Following the 2016-17 NBA season, Russell Westbrook was named League MVP. I strenuously
00:07object to that. I don't want to be too hyperbolic and call it the most irrational award recipient
00:13ever or anything, but I will die on the hill that he won it for the absolute most irrational
00:18reason. The inability of most homo sapiens to abandon their caveman roots as to the siren
00:25song of the round number. We irrationally place numbers that happen to end in zero on
00:30a pedestal as if there's something specifically and inherently magical about reaching such
00:35benchmarks. That is the spell under which the voters for the award were operating that
00:40year in naming Westbrook MVP, the spell under which they spurned the real 2017 MVP, Rockets
00:47guard James Harden. And I'll prove it.
00:56Let's talk for a second about triple-doubles. Russell Westbrook averaged one throughout
01:01the 2016-17 season, the first player to do so since 1962 Oscar Robertson. Any Hoops fan
01:08born before, like, 2010 can recall that all throughout that season, Westbrook's triple-double
01:14narrative was a dominating and overwhelming storyline. James Harden did not average a
01:20triple-double, finishing 1.86 rebounds per game shy. That completely arbitrary delineation
01:27of the triple-double average and or the total number of them, as alluded to in either the
01:32headline or first couple lines of just about every piece of media content covering Westbrook's
01:39winning of, League MVP, is the reason why Harden didn't win it. Which is beyond ludicrous.
01:46Real quick for those unfamiliar, a triple-double is when a player amasses in a game a double-digit
01:51total in three separate categories, almost always points, assists, and rebounds. Because
01:58of the ubiquity with which prominent players scored double-digit points, and indeed Harden
02:02and Westbrook dropped at least 10 points in 161 of their combined 162 games that season,
02:08when we get down to brass tacks, a triple-double generally serves as a term used to underscore
02:13someone having recorded at least 10 assists and 10 rebounds in a game.
02:18Okay, with that preamble out of the way, we'll look here at the raw season-long assist and
02:23rebound totals of Harden, Westbrook, and mostly just for fun, each of the other 484 NBA players
02:30that season. We see Westbrook grabbed more rebounds than Harden, but Harden dished out
02:35more dimes. Considering that your average assist requires significantly more skill than
02:41your average rebound, that they're significantly rarer than rebounds, and that they're significantly
02:46more, keyword alert, valuable than rebounds, one could easily argue Harden's placement
02:51on this chart is as or more impressive than Westbrook's, and either way it's certainly
02:56close. But when broken down on a per-game basis, which fundamentally alters nothing
03:01between their delta since they both had their totals distributed across the same 81 games,
03:07this zero right here made everyone freak out. Harden still arguably places as or more impressively
03:14than Westbrook on a scatter chart of assists per game and rebounds per game, but Westbrook
03:19happened to clear a number that ends in zero in both categories, and Harden did not.
03:25So while this meant that, yes, Westbrook averaged a triple-double that season, the
03:29first player to do so since the Big O, with the scoring a foregone conclusion that can
03:33simply be rephrased as 2017 Westbrook being the first player since Oscar to reach 10 assists
03:38and 10 rebounds, that specific combo, per game. And this caused countless otherwise
03:45rational people to become completely irrational. I know this because Harden ALSO reached a
03:51specific assist and rebound combo, 11-8, that ALSO hadn't been done since Oscar.
03:57Speaking of the Big O himself, he went and personally visited and congratulated Westbrook
04:02ahead of his season finale based on his per-game combination of assists and rebounds. Pretty
04:07understandable gesture from Oscar since no one had reached those figures since he did
04:12so. But I've yet to find any evidence of any sort of visit to Harden under the exact
04:17same rationale of the Beards' per-game combo of assists and rebounds ALSO having
04:22not been reached since Oscar. I'll keep searching, though.
04:25It's actually quite a convenient apples-to-apples comparison between these two guys, each representing
04:31this same archetype. Heliocentric point guards who were the alpha and omega of their squads,
04:36who ALWAYS had the ball in their hands with their offenses reliant upon them to score
04:41for themselves, both of whom were aided by more time at the free-throw line than anyone
04:45else in the NBA, or create for teammates basically every possession. They both had
04:51the same weaknesses, turnovers galore, a natural byproduct of always handling the ball, and
04:57poor defense, though at least Harden's size and strength were an asset down on the low
05:01block against Biggs, which helped unlock Houston's switch-heavy scheme.
05:05So we know Harden stacks up strong even in the department by far most frequently mentioned
05:10for Westbrook's case, the assist-rebound combination. And I'll just mention as an
05:15aside that Westbrook's rebounding edge can essentially be accounted for and then some
05:19as a function of playing with the most selfless all-time big man when it comes to the defensive
05:24glass, Steven Adams. Adams was always happy to seed boards to his star teammate, always
05:30happy to unleash his brutish boxout without seeking the reward that comes by securing
05:36the rebound itself, never siphoning the uncontested boards so that Westbrook could instead grab
05:41him, in so doing sacrificing his own stats and his pocketbook, a notion that Adams himself
05:47would later corroborate when asked about that phenomenon.
05:50I don't give a shit about the defensive rebounds, brother. It's like, as long as someone gets
05:56the ball and we don't have to play defense anymore, I don't give a shit. It just means
06:01that their position is over, we don't have to rotate, so I don't care who gets it.
06:08That is not normal. Safe to say most other bigs love gobbling up rebounds, especially
06:13the freebies, and don't exactly embody that same kind of statistical and financial selflessness.
06:20But setting aside Westbrook's assist-rebound crutch, there are two other core elements
06:24to their cases. One is scoring proficiency, and the other is how their games drove winning
06:30and team success. Let's start with scoring, where Westbrook holds a slight edge in volume,
06:36but Harden holds a colossal edge in efficiency. Westbrook took over 26% more shots than did
06:43Harden, which amounts to over 5 more per game, yet he turned them into just 8.6% more points
06:50than did Harden, which amounts to not even 2.5 more per game. Considering the NBA average
06:56was about 1.24 points per shot, it ought to go without saying that requiring over 5
07:02more shots to score not even 2.5 more points represents a stark contrast in efficiency.
07:08But let's say more anyway. Looking at the points per shot of those with at least 10
07:13shots per game, which, by the way, as merely a minimum threshold for the dataset of a rate-based
07:18metric is an appropriate usage of a round number, Harden's 1.54 points per shot didn't
07:24just lead the league amongst even decent volume players, it bested Westbrook's mark
07:29by over 16%. Another couple prominent efficiency-based
07:34metrics worth taking a glance at are effective field goal percentage, where Harden held a
07:38large advantage over Westbrook, and true shooting percentage, where Harden also held a large
07:44advantage over Westbrook. Several tiers above Westbrook as a shooter,
07:48to put it mildly, Harden revolutionized the step-back three-pointer, which he leveraged
07:53with his ability to get to the rim and finish at will, as well as his wizardry as one of
07:58the very greatest passers and playmakers ever, to propel his Rockets to heights far greater
08:03than Westbrook was able to guide his organization. In the wake of Westbrook alienating off his
08:08team the most malleable superstar in NBA history, neither player had a star teammate, but Harden
08:15led his Rockets to over 17% more wins than did Westbrook, locking down a top-3 seed.
08:21I'm sorry, but no team whose Robin is Eric Gordon or Clint Capella has any business sniffing
08:2755 wins or a top-3 seed, especially in a loaded Western conference.
08:33So Harden was an unequivocally and significantly better, more valuable scorer than Westbrook,
08:39his far-superior efficiency sparking his team to much more success than Westbrook, and in
08:44an argument or comparison specifically against Harden, citing the whole assist-rebound-combo
08:50thing is pointless when Harden also had just as unique a combo, especially when the focal
08:56point is the specific digit in which one of the numbers in each's unprecedented-since-Oscar
09:02combination happens to end. And it wasn't just that Westbrook became the first player
09:07since Oscar to average a triple-double that caused the irrational response, it was also
09:11that he had the most individual triple-doubles, which is literally just cherry-picking a specific
09:17point-assist-and-rebound total, 10-10-10, and baselessly deciding those cherry-picked
09:23numbers are more meaningful. So yes, 2017 Westbrook had the most games in a season reaching
09:29those benchmarks, but I too can cherry-pick specific point-assist-rebound benchmarks that
09:342017 Harden reached more times than anyone ever had.
09:38I'm a staunch believer in two things. One, when alluding to any sort of feat or accomplishment,
09:44all numbers should be treated with their commensurate weight relative to their placement
09:48within the numeric sequence. No inherent bonus should apply based on level of roundness,
09:54and round numbers shouldn't be placed on a pedestal. A 30-30-9 combo is obviously far
10:01more impressive than 10-10-10, even if the former reached double digits in only two categories
10:07and the latter in three. We can't weigh Westbrook's rebounding edge over Harden
10:12so heavily just because he reached double digits there, while effectively writing off
10:16Harden's assist advantage simply because Westbrook's inferior average happened to
10:21still have the same number of digits. But that's exactly what the invocation of the
10:26almighty triple-double amounts to. I refuse to subscribe to the societal emphasis on round
10:31numbers in this context, and I implore all others to join me.
10:36And two, historical context should largely be moot when it comes to single-season awards.
10:41The awards should be earned based on comparison to one's peers in a vacuum within that given
10:46season, and any numbers that anyone from the past did or didn't post shouldn't carry any
10:51sort of significant degree of relevance. For example, in 2017 we heard non-stop how
10:58no one had averaged a triple-double since Oscar in the 60s. Well, if someone had indeed done so
11:03more recently than that, that wouldn't have inherently made Westbrook's season less valuable
11:08relative to his peers that campaign. So the fact that someone didn't doesn't inherently
11:13make it more valuable relative to his 2017 brethren. Same dynamic for Harden, who as
11:18previously mentioned here but was seemingly unbeknownst to most, also averaged a point-assist
11:24rebound statline not seen since Oscar. But if someone had, that wouldn't have rendered
11:29what he did that season relative to his peers any less valuable.
11:34It was the ultimate double standard, the omnipresent references and fawning over the
11:39historical context of Westbrook averaging a point-assist rebound combo not seen since Oscar.
11:44But, and believe me, I've searched all corners of Al Gore's internet,
11:48there was precious little out there, especially among folks with voting power,
11:53countering that ubiquitous anecdote in MVP discourse by acknowledging Harden
11:58also averaged a point-assist rebound combo not seen since Oscar.
12:02USA Today's Sam Amick was one exception, but even he was among the 69 moths who placed
12:08Westbrook atop their ballot, seemingly drawn to the round number flame, because there are
12:13simply no strong, concrete, non-hypocritical arguments to place him above Harden. But
12:19there's a plethora of significant Harden advantages that justify his placement above Westbrook.
12:24Despite my dismissive stance toward the round number and Oscar-based historical context
12:29rhetoric that dominated the 2016-17 NBA season and MVP discourse, just for the sake of argument,
12:35if we do want to play that game, that doesn't exactly lessen Harden's case.
12:41In addition to stacking up just as favorably historically with his assist-rebound combo
12:45as does Westbrook, let's look at every season of every guard who had ever scored as much per
12:50game as 2017 Harden, and we see that he posted a true shooting percentage that surpassed all
12:56but Steph Curry in his unanimous MVP season the prior year and, by just a whisker, 89 Jordan.
13:03Hell, for points per shot, we can even lower the threshold down to 25 points per game,
13:08and 17 Harden beat his own mark from a few years prior to still sit atop all the other challengers.
13:15So in terms of volume and efficiency, 17 Harden authored one of the greatest all-time scoring
13:20seasons by any guard, and certainly much greater than 17 Westbrook's slightly superior volume
13:26but far inferior efficiency. And he married his preternatural scoring abilities with one of the
13:32most gifted skillsets of passing and playmaking the association has ever seen. To placate all
13:39you round number-obsessed sickos, here's an itch-scratching 17 Harden anecdote that no one
13:45else has ever accomplished, which, thanks to over 40% of his assists-producing threes, he pulled
13:51off with multiple weeks before the end of the season, so he comfortably cleared 2K in each.
13:57We can also take a look at games with 10-plus assists. 17 Harden had 60 of them, more than
14:03anyone else has had in a season since the NBA birthed Grizzlies and Raptors, and 20% more than
14:09Westbrook. For you historical context fiends, here are some guys who never pulled that off.
14:15He totaled more than 900 dimes, a number also never reached by many of the best-ever passers.
14:22Combine all that creating and distributing with his more than 2300 points scored,
14:27and you gain entry into a tiny 2,900 club. Though I would've voted for Harden, there was at least
14:35a reasonable case to be made for placing above him the best of another player archetype,
14:40specifically Spurs' apex wing predator Kawhi Leonard, the NBA's best perimeter defender who
14:46offensively dropped a hyper-efficient 25 and a half points per game. But no such reasonable case
14:53exists for Westbrook. Fueled by far superior efficiency, Harden was the far more valuable
14:59scorer, which drove far more winning. Those represent two of the core tenets to their cases,
15:05both landslides for Harden. When looking at the season totals of the third, the perpetually
15:11alluded to assist-rebound combo, Harden more than holds his own, especially when accounting
15:16for the greater value of assists. And he was at least close enough on the glass that any edge
15:21overall held by Westbrook on this chart is negligible, definitely not enough to overcome
15:26Harden's massive advantages in scoring and winning. But when the assessment swaps in per
15:32game for raw totals, which mathematically changes nothing but happens to facilitate a round number
15:38as to the average, somehow that makes all the difference in the world. 2017 Westbrook's per
15:44game assist-rebound combo, which, again, is what any reference of the triple-double boils down to,
15:50not having been done since Oscar Robertson over a half century earlier, isn't a damning point over
15:56someone else when that someone else also had an assist-rebound combo that, y'know, also hadn't
16:03been done since Oscar Robertson over a half century earlier. And regardless of historical
16:08context, it's preposterous to emphasize the 1.86 rebounds per game for which Harden fell short of
16:15his own triple-double average to the point it effectively renders moot his objectively stronger
16:20case. A rational defense, defense, can be cited for preferring Kawhi over Harden for MVP,
16:27but no rational reason exists for Harden looking up at Westbrook in 2017 NBA MVP voting,
16:34because placing that kind of emphasis on round numbers is not rational.
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