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00:00Joe, does this come down to one play at the end of the game containing stopping Patrick Mahomes because every piece of data shows us and the point spread that this is coming down to the end is coming down to a last possession.
00:15So, if the Chiefs have the ball and they have spags and Jalen Hurts has it and he's got to make one play.
00:22Do you benefit Hurts?
00:24Would you benefit spags in the spot?
00:26I benefit spags and it's an easy reason why it's because I've seen it my entire life as a Patriots fan.
00:33He tagged me with two of the worst losses.
00:35I've ever seen one heartbreaking one.
00:37I saw coming a mile away and it's the same way by being pressure bringing pressure, especially on third downs.
00:42Those third logs.
00:43Now the Eagles do a pretty good job of avoiding those situations, but they find themselves in those situations.
00:48Just like the bills did last week.
00:49What does spags do?
00:50He ramps up those blitzes.
00:52I'll give you the corner blitz.
00:53I'll give you all this stuff.
00:53How the bills did not know they were bringing a corner blitz.
00:56I don't know because he did the same thing last year in a big spot against Purdy in the Super Bowl.
01:01And I remember it and I'm thinking to myself.
01:03All right.
01:03Well, you're gonna see that corner blitz there.
01:04There it is.
01:05And Josh Howard and the rest of the Buffalo Bills seemed really perplexed by it.
01:08But for all the talk about, you know, how great Andy Reid is and he is Steve Spagnuolo is probably the unheralded star here of this coaching staff that people don't really give enough credit of how important his role has been talk about greatness to let's also go back to some of these other
01:23performances.
01:24This Chiefs defense has had against some great running backs.
01:26How about the 2019 AFC Championship game against the Titans and Derrick Henry was having an all-world season that year held in the 69 yards on 19 carries.
01:34What about Chris McCaffrey?
01:36The Russian champion last year held to 80 yards on 20 carry.
01:39So if you think the spags defense has no shot to slow down, say, Kwan Barkley, you're wrong, but they've got to avoid is the big sake one Barkley play.
01:47That is the backbreaker in these kind of games.
01:49I think spags is going to be prepared for it.
01:51All right.
01:51Now another X Factor type player, but is a main player in the game.
01:56Matt is say Kwan Barkley, but do you necessarily have to correlate a Barkley big game with an Eagles win?
02:05Because what's really fascinating Matt is we don't know what an Eagles win looks like without Barkley having a huge game because it's just every game after every game.
02:16It's like if you close your eyes and dream and think when was the last time the Eagles won and Barkley was quiet.
02:22I'm sure it's happened this season, but we certainly don't remember it.
02:25Maybe it was November.
02:26I don't know.
02:27It feels like forever ago.
02:29Matt can Barkley have like 60 70 yards in this game go under his Russian prop and the Eagles win.
02:36Well to Joe's point, it's about the run the big run when it happens what happens because if everything the numbers are telling us that it's going to be close.
02:45It's going to be one of these tight situations think about the names of the players in whom you want the ball to be in their hands, right?
02:51So thinking about that is one thing but you mentioned remove Barkley from the equation.
02:55Okay, so let's do that as a wager.
02:57Is there a game script?
02:58That is a Goddard Brown hurts heavy game script that results in a win in my gut.
03:03I say no, but I don't need Barkley to have a gigantic day and Joe's really stood here.
03:08I just need Barkley to do something and I said it at the top and I wonder what George will have to say about it too.
03:14Is that there's that death stare for Barkley amidst all the fanfare all the peacocking the Super Bowl whatever he's staring.
03:22I feel like he's just staring at a wall.
03:24Just waiting for the whistle crack.
03:27George, you know Barkley was not there.
03:30This is the big, you know X Factor so to speak the last time these two teams played in the Super Bowl and the game was close.
03:38So it would lead me to believe that if Barkley had and I'm just going to throw a number out there now again,
03:43his prop is about 109 and a half 110.
03:46I think on FanDuel, but let's just say Georgie at 80 yards, which by the way is a good number for the Super Bowl.
03:52That would lead to me to believe based on the time they played the last time with the better defensive coordinator clearly and
03:59Vic Fangio that there's a pretty good shot that the Eagles could even win with a meager game by Barkley.
04:05Oh, I agree.
04:06I think there is I think game script is going to tell you.
04:08There's a good chance.
04:10I don't want to say the Eagles are the Chiefs going to sell out to stop Barkley.
04:13But they're not playing a lot of cover too.
04:15Right?
04:15Those safety is going to crawl towards the line of scrimmage here to keep Barkley in check.
04:19It's sort of what do you want to die by?
04:21Do you want to die by Barkley?
04:22It's more than knife, but you don't want to die by the gun.
04:25I know the big plays to AJ Brown here, but I think that's what they're going to do.
04:29Keep Barkley in check and force hurts to make those plays.
04:31If he starts to make those plays.
04:32Okay, you know, we'll play it more even here.
04:34We'll back those safety's up.
04:36I don't think it's gonna be a big AJ Brown game.
04:38I think God is going to have a big year.
04:39I know the public is on that.
04:41Everybody is what scares me a little bit.
04:42I like Devonta Smith as well.
04:44I think we're sort of forgetting about him in those intermediate routes here.
04:47And Brown's going deep.
04:48You got God, you worry about Barkley.
04:50Devonta Smith's got a lot of one-on-one there.
04:52So I kind of like his day-to-day too.
04:54Bottom line is this.
04:55The Eagles have a lot of choices on offense.
04:57Even if Barkley is not, you know, and he's at 80 yards.
04:59This is a good game.
05:00You do that math.
05:01That's what 1300 yards a season.
05:02That's a really good game here.
05:04I think they're going to need to keep him more to 60 yards to really have a better shot in this game.
05:09He only gets 60 yards.
05:10I can see this game going Kansas City's way.
05:12Assuming the turnover, they win the turnover battle there or don't turn the ball over once or zero times here.
05:18But I think Barkley is going to be kept in check somewhat.
05:20That being said, yeah, we've seen his longest run prop go from 25 and a half to start the betting.
05:25It's down to 23 and a half right now.
05:29I still want, I haven't taken that yet.
05:31I've got 33 profits.
05:32It's not one of them right now.
05:3333?
05:34I still think he makes that.
05:35It's the last football game of the season, man.
05:37I'm not joking.
05:38I'm having, listen, we talked to Cam Stewart last night.
05:41What number do you think he's at between bets that revolve the Super Bowl?
05:45It makes 33 look awfully small.
05:47He said he's at 102.
05:49Wow.
05:49So Cam has gone.
05:51It's the last game, man.
05:52I'm going to have some fun.
05:52No football.
05:53They're all $2 bets, right?
05:55Yeah, they're not all.
05:56Listen, there's a couple of $5 bets in there.
05:58Of course.
05:59I'm going to have some joy.
06:00There's some novelty bets.
06:01You know what Taylor Smith, is she going to hug somebody during the game?
06:04Why not?
06:05Let's see if she does it.
06:06You know, how many times will they show her on camera?
06:07We got some fun bets.