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00:00You could argue this will be the game that flips whether he can or cannot pass Tom Brady
00:08as the greatest of all time. Very, very few things Tom didn't accomplish in this league.
00:13One of them is a three-peat. And I don't expect Pat, because I don't expect anyone to play as
00:18long as Tom did, I don't really think the regular season records are in play for Patrick Mahomes.
00:27Post-season, maybe, because every year they're playing multiple playoff games,
00:31so I don't want to discredit that. But if all of a sudden Pat can say, I three-peated,
00:37especially with all three Super Bowl MVPs on my plate, that would be massive. So,
00:44Donnie, a quarterback prompt to watch for you, with Mahomes in mind, where would you go?
00:50It has to be his rushing yards. And you say, well, that's crazy. He's got to throw,
00:54he's got to have multiple touchdown passes. We've seen it in the past. And again,
00:58recently biased, maybe not this season, go back two years against the Philadelphia Eagles before
01:02the half, Joe. What happened? Stumbling around out there at that point, hurting his ankle once
01:06again, they're down 10. No way he could come back in the second half. He looked like he was a gazelle
01:11in that fourth quarter scramble under two minutes, which eventually led to the game-winning field
01:15goal. So for me, it's making the plays, because I think we're going to get to talking about
01:19the matchups on defense versus offense. Yes, we're going to talk about both quarterbacks now
01:22that can handle the secondaries, but the Eagles front four will get pressure on Patrick Mahomes.
01:27The third and threes, the third and fours, where he makes those scramble plays to buy extra time,
01:31run for the first down or throw for the first down. Those are going to be the consequences
01:35that could doom the Philadelphia Eagles. So when I look at Patrick Mahomes, 252 and a half,
01:39the game script says he probably has to get there for them to win. Over one and a half touchdown
01:42passes, like minus 155 at certain books right now, the game script demands that he throws for
01:46multiple touchdowns. But for me, I'm taking my focus off of the passing of Patrick Mahomes and
01:51say, can he rush eight times for 58 yards and get those big plays needed, Joe, so they can
01:57overcome the Philadelphia Eagles defense? It's a good look. And I think when you look at the
02:00passing yards for Mahomes, I said he has to be in the area 275, 250, right? That doesn't mean I'm
02:07recommending or betting it myself, right? So for me, when I look at just Pat Mahomes as a whole,
02:14yes, he has to get to 275 for me to think that they have a shot to win the game. But 36 and a
02:19half in terms of the pass attempts at plus 102, I believe is going to be where it's at. And the
02:24reason why I say that for me, I don't know if Kansas City is going to be able to run the football
02:28effectively on the front seven. What does that mean? That means long third down situations.
02:32They have struggled with third downs consistently throughout the regular season in the playoff win.
02:38They were four of 11, I believe, against Houston. That's a cause of concern heading into this
02:42matchup. If the game plays out the way I believe, Kev, I'm looking at Mahomes passing attempts
02:48over the 36 and a half with plus money. So I'm on his past attempts now at 35 and a half. I think
02:55there are still some 35 and a halves out there. Just always you want to get the best of the
02:59number, but it's not like, let me tell you, 36 and a half, this thing's a bang under, right?
03:03But to give people the idea, the Eagles in the last two games, they've played 44 attempts,
03:0848 attempts from opposing quarterbacks of Stafford and Jaden Daniels. Mahomes in this
03:12postseason has gone two straight games without 30 attempts in either game. The only other time that
03:18happened in consecutive games earlier in the year where that follow-up game, he threw it 39 times
03:24against the Falcons. In the last 10 regular season games, so before this two-game postseason stretch
03:30that Pat played, he went over 35 and a half in nine out of 10, averaging 39.4 attempts per game.
03:37So you're talking about much, much closer to 40 on a consistent basis there for Mahomes. I think
03:45that is just something the Eagles forced offenses into where their run defense is good and you have
03:54to kind of throw for what's in front of you. And that's who Pat has been throughout this season.
03:59Again, life show Mahomes is a thing of the past. It's, I'll take what the defense is giving me, or
04:05I'll just check down because, you know, I don't really, you know, I'm not comfortable, whatever
04:10it might be, there's a lot of check downs in Pat Mahomes' game this day and age. So that's why I
04:15look at the attempts as that number. On the rushing number, I will say, DRS, there is one
04:24performance that for some reason, and you know how this goes as batters, where it just gets burned
04:29into your brain because it goes against everything we know about Pat. The loss to Buffalo, he didn't
04:35attempt one rush. Whatever reason, I don't know why that has been burned in my brain, where
04:42my interest in betting Mahomes off of such a great rushing performance against Buffalo
04:47in game number two, I want all-Taiwan splash plays. Like I considered, and I wonder what you
04:53would think of an option like this, both Mahomes and Hurts to have a long run of 20 or more yards.
04:59It was around a 10 to 1 price on a DK special. Makes a lot of sense. That's one of the things
05:02we're looking for. What is his long rush? 11.5 to 12.5, I believe, something in that range,
05:06because it's a good point you bring up where I'm telling you in big moments, Pat Mahomes is going
05:11to run. So if it is 13.5 yards, he's probably going to have one. Like there's a chance that,
05:15let's just say he gets 35 rushing yards in the game, but one of those is a 22-yard run. Very
05:19similar. And if you do think they're actually going to win the football game, maybe he takes
05:23the snaps and it's two to three yards back. So that could be the smarter opinion. But I'd look
05:26for the splash plays out of Pat Mahomes. I just figure the volume is going to be there. Why?
05:30Because I don't think they're going to run the ball as effectively, obviously, as the Philadelphia
05:34Eagles, which means more drop back passes, more pressure, more chances to scramble.
05:37Aaron, both quarterbacks will take this game on their shoulders, right? If the game is on the
05:41line and a critical third down or a critical play needs to be made, I believe that we both believe
05:46that Pat Mahomes and Jalen Hurts can rush 20 yards or 25 yards, whatever it is, in that type
05:54of situation, scenario. So it's a good look.