Munich Security Conference chair Christoph Heusgen believes that Donald Trump can end the war in Ukraine, saying the US president has the "instruments in his hands" to do so.
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00:00Could this week be the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine?
00:05Donald Trump has promised that he can deliver a deal and his top diplomatic team will be
00:09here in Germany later this week to try to get things started at the Munich Security
00:14Conference.
00:15We've been talking to the head of the conference to try to get a sense of what to expect.
00:22Christoph Heusgen, thanks for making time for us today.
00:24So why is this weekend so important?
00:27Munich Security Conference has always been important.
00:29We believe, but this year, of course, it's extremely important.
00:33There are so many conflicts going on.
00:35We have the Russian aggression against Ukraine still ongoing.
00:40But at the same time, there seems to be some movement.
00:43There are discussions about possible talks.
00:45And we wonder perhaps that Munich can serve to bring this a bit forward.
00:50Yeah, I mean, Munich has been at the center of the Ukraine war story from the very beginning.
00:56The invasion in 2022 began just days after the conference.
01:02Are there things that Donald Trump can do that Joe Biden could not do to really change
01:07the dynamic now?
01:09Well, I think that everybody around the globe witnesses that Trump is doing things out of
01:15the box.
01:17And my impression is that also the Kremlin is kind of nervous about what may happen.
01:24And I think that Trump has the instruments in his hand to perhaps finish the war and
01:31end the suffering of the people.
01:32And this is an opportunity that cannot be wasted.
01:35And therefore, I think we should work with this situation that we have.
01:41Everybody's wondering what may happen.
01:43And I hope very much that something happens, that this will be successful, and that in
01:49Munich we can prepare for it.
01:51And what are those instruments you speak of?
01:53The Ukrainians and many are worried that Trump will go soft on Russia.
01:58Others say, no, he is prepared to be tougher.
02:01I don't know how he thinks.
02:03He has said before he wants to resolve it.
02:06And I think that for him it is a challenge.
02:11And I think he, from what he says, I think he wants to really contribute to finish this
02:16war.
02:18He will go all in, I think, to solve this with the instruments that he has.
02:24And we'll see.
02:25Of course, it has to do with putting pressure on Russia.
02:28He has already announced some sanctions.
02:31I think that there are possibilities to increase those, to increase the pressure.
02:36At the same time, of course, he puts pressure on the Europeans and say, well, if we come
02:41to the issue of security guarantees, Europe has to step up to the plate.
02:46And there's also, of course, then pressure, discussions with Zelensky, with Ukrainians,
02:52what from their perspective could be part of the deal.
02:55So the different elements come together in Munich.
02:58And I hope we'll make some progress there.
02:59Yeah.
03:00I mean, with respect to Ukraine, I mean, we know what the Russians want.
03:03You haven't invited them to the conference, but we know that they want, for instance,
03:08a promise that Ukraine will never join NATO.
03:11They want Ukraine to give up huge amounts of territory.
03:15How do you get past these demands?
03:17Well, this is a question of negotiations.
03:19I think Ukraine can and will never give up its territory.
03:25This is, according to international law, the charter of the United Nations.
03:30But of course, there are possibilities how you can maybe temporarily, you know, say we
03:36will not have sovereignty over this territory.
03:40And then, you know, we'll see what comes later.
03:43There has to be the question of NATO membership.
03:47Is this something where the Ukrainians renounce for a certain period so that they don't become
03:56a member of NATO, which, by the way, is something also debated within NATO.
04:01But of course, if not, the question is, I mentioned it before, security guarantees.
04:05You know, I negotiated with, in support of Angela Merkel, the Minsk agreement.
04:12And the Minsk agreement opened up the way to a diplomatic way.
04:17Russia in the past has agreed to preserve the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine, in
04:24particular in the famous Budapest Memorandum, where the Ukrainians, naively believing in
04:30what the Russians promised them, gave up their nuclear weapons.
04:34And the Russians said, we guarantee your national sovereignty.
04:37And they didn't do it.
04:39Ukraine will say, OK, if we don't become a member of NATO, if now we should stop, who
04:47guarantees us that the Russians, you know, again, as they did in the past, when they
04:51feel like it, again, invade us.
04:53And therefore, they will need security guarantees.
04:55And this is a question that President Trump will put to us Europeans.
05:00Yeah.
05:01Also, with respect to NATO, it looks like Vladimir Putin is reviving demands from before
05:06the war that NATO should withdraw forces from countries that joined NATO since the
05:12end of the Cold War.
05:14And we know that Donald Trump is a NATO skeptic.
05:17He wants to reduce America's footprint in Europe.
05:20Are you worried that he might be inclined to agree to something in that direction?
05:25I don't believe that he's a NATO skeptic.
05:28He went to the summits, and I think he believes in NATO.
05:34What he clearly demands is that Europe steps up to the plate.
05:39We have to admit that even under President Obama in 2014, we have, as Europeans, we as
05:45Germans, have committed to spend two percent of GDP on defense.
05:50And we didn't do it.
05:51And so I think it's only right that an American president, whoever it is, ask that there is
05:57a fair burden sharing.
05:59And therefore, this is only legitimate that we are asked, also as Germans, to do more
06:06for defense.
06:07But I don't see that he will throw the Baltic countries under the bus.
06:13Quite the contrary.
06:14I think he's very committed to the security of NATO members.
06:18Now, I mean, you pointed this, the Europeans are worried that all of these negotiations
06:22could just happen over their heads, but they really need to bring something to the table
06:26in that case.
06:27On the one hand, there is this issue of military spending, but also there's the question of
06:30how to keep the peace within Ukraine after a potential ceasefire.
06:35There's been a debate here in Germany and elsewhere in Europe.
06:38Should the Europeans take the lead on a force, a large military force, to keep the peace
06:44in Ukraine after a ceasefire?
06:46I cannot go into details.
06:48I'm no longer in government.
06:49I can only say that it is important that we take the Russian threat seriously.
06:55This is why this government has now committed to put a brigade into Lithuania, for instance,
07:01and to prevent a Russian aggression on Lithuania.
07:04Now, with regard to Ukraine, yes, there has to be a European participation in whatever
07:11security architecture is foreseen.
07:14Now, many people say, well, we cannot imagine doing this and should we do this?
07:19Can I only remind people that we have already done it, because part of the Minsk agreement
07:24was the OSCE Observer Troop, where also Germans participated in and had the deputy head of
07:30mission.
07:31So, the idea of putting Europeans, Germans as part of a security force, observer force,
07:39whatever, is something that has already happened, but it has to be debated.
07:44What nature should that be?
07:45How many?
07:46How should it be organized?
07:48Should it be part of a UN mission, OSCE mission, EU, NATO, whatever?
07:53This has to be discussed.
07:55Look, Ukraine is such a big focus this year.
07:58We've been talking about it completely until now, but there are so many other significant
08:03crises in the world.
08:04For instance, Sudan, this is described often as the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.
08:11You've said today that it will feature in the conference, but it barely gets a mention
08:14in the report, the pre-conference report that's just been published.
08:19Are you alive to the risk of major crises getting crowded out by this very transatlantic
08:26Western focus?
08:27No, I've been, since I arrived at the Munich Security Conference, this has been for me
08:32very important that we put the focus on other conflicts.
08:36I mean, nobody knew anything about Haiti until I put it on the agenda, and we do it again.
08:42Sudan, very high on the agenda.
08:44We have the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross here.
08:51We'll put it on the agenda.
08:53We hope to have a minister from Sudan.
08:56We also hope, and we invited and they agreed to have some of those who are in the back
09:02supporting, for instance, the rapid support forces.
09:05So we expect the, for instance, the Emiratis to be there because, you know, there are some
09:11people behind supporting this.
09:13So we have to put it, and of course we have Filippo Grandi here.
09:19He also participates in our kickoff and of course in this debate because he is the one
09:25who looks after the millions of refugees.
09:28And when you look at Sudan, we are about at 10 million refugees right now, and this is
09:35of course a concern and we put it very high on the agenda of our kickoff today in Berlin,
09:42but also at the conference.
09:43And just a final word, an emerging crisis in DRC, will that also feature?
09:48Yes, we'll have that on the agenda.
09:51We hope to have a minister from the DRC.
09:56We have, hope also to have somebody from Rwanda there, but in any case, we'll put it on the
10:03agenda.
10:04What is happening there also is, when you look at humanitarian issue, it's horrible.
10:11We invited also, I don't know if he comes, Dr. Mukwege, who won the Peace Nobel Prize
10:17from DRC, who for years has put fingers on the humanitarian crisis in this country.
10:24So it will be on our agenda.
10:26Christoph Eusgen, thanks for speaking to DW.
10:28We'll be there in Munich this weekend.
10:29Looking forward to seeing you there.