CGTN Europe spoke to Samuel Ramani, Tutor of Politics and International Reations, University of Oxford, about the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
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00:00Samuel, welcome back, good to see you. Just how fragile would you say this ceasefire is,
00:05and how hard are the parties fighting for peace?
00:10Well, I think that the ceasefire is certainly very fragile, because any delay
00:14in the release of hostages was almost certain to yield an Israeli response,
00:18and most likely a military response. And there's been a number of things that have led to this
00:24situation. One of them is the maltreatment of the Israeli hostages who were released,
00:28their emaciation really gained a lot of headlines inside Israel. The death of Shlomo Mansour,
00:33an 86-year-old hostage whose body was kept in Hamas' custody was a big blow because he was
00:40on the list of one of the people who was supposed to be released. And Benjamin Netanyahu's comments
00:45about the displacement of Palestinians has really enraged Hamas. Qatar has been trying to work as
00:50hard as they can in terms of inviting an Israeli delegation to Doha. Egypt has held an emergency
00:56summit about the displacement of Palestinians. But it doesn't seem as if these regional mediators
01:01are doing enough, or can do enough, to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas at this time.
01:07What does President Trump's latest ultimatum say about the future of US Middle East policy?
01:17Well, I mean, Trump's whole approach to the current potential breakdown of the ceasefire
01:23has been pretty classic, right? He's threatened apocalyptic consequences,
01:26much like the way he did against North Korea and against Iran in the past, against Hamas,
01:31if they don't release the hostages. And also, he seems to be showing a disregard for Palestinian
01:37sovereignty and self-determination by entertaining the Gaza Riviera plan, by calling for Jordan and
01:42Egypt to accept as many Palestinians as possible. And that pretty much aligns with the attitude that
01:49he's had towards Israeli expansionism on other issues, like the Golan Heights.
01:53Given that analysis of US efforts, what's the role of the regional and other global actors
02:02when it comes to the remaining hostages, the downscaling of hostilities, and the region's
02:08future? Well, I mean, I think obviously Israel is going to be taking cues from the views of the
02:14administration in the United States. It appeared as if, in the lead up to the ceasefire agreement,
02:19that both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration were on board
02:25with a need to end the war, to end the violence, to end hostilities in both Gaza and in Lebanon.
02:30And it was Steve Woodcock's meeting with Netanyahu that probably convinced him to
02:34accept a deal that he had rejected when Biden offered it in May. But now, if the US is going
02:39to be more permissive towards Israel carrying out military strikes, then I think that the Israelis
02:45will pursue that, especially if the Qataris and the Egyptians cannot manage to get Hamas
02:51to release the remaining hostages on Saturday. Obviously, we've heard that one vision of the
02:58future of part of this region is a Riviera. What about the indications of who else might
03:05rebuild Gaza, and how difficult that journey will be, and how it'll look like?
03:13Well, I think the rebuilding of Gaza is going to be something that's very complicated.
03:16I mean, obviously, many Arab countries will be expected to invest. The Qataris invested quite
03:21heavily in the rebuilding of Gaza in the past, particularly after the war in 2014. But a lot of
03:25that aid, through UN-approved mechanisms, entered the hands of Hamas. So now it'll be incumbent on
03:31the Saudis, and the Qataris, and other Gulf countries with the capital to be able to bring
03:35it in. But obviously, there's so much to rebuild. The costs are staggering, given the level of
03:40destruction. And it's really unclear what Gaza's post-war environment is going to look like. Will
03:44Hamas be completely defeated? Will Israel occupy it completely? Will the Palestinian Authority
03:50take Hamas's place? Unless those questions are answered, I think it's very hard to get
03:54a viable reconstruction process going in the Gaza Strip.