Theresa May lost the last Brexit vote in dramatic fashion, but what does all this mean? Theresa May and her Brexit plan were crushed in the UK parliament on Tuesday, quickly followed by a vote of no confidence. All in all, not a great showing for the UK Prime Minister.
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00:00Hello and welcome to Durhams and Dollars, the Gulf News business podcast where we talk
00:09about news affecting the business community in the region and in the world.
00:13On Wednesdays we have in-depth conversations on the topic of the week and you can find
00:16us at gulfnews.com.
00:17You can also download all our episodes from iTunes.
00:21I'm Sarah Adia and I'm joined today by…
00:23I'm Ed Klaus.
00:24And I'm Scott Shuey.
00:25All right.
00:26Hello, everybody.
00:27Welcome to today's episode of our ongoing series of Whose Government is Crazier?
00:32We have some updates.
00:33Now, for those who have been paying attention, you certainly know that the U.S. is well ahead
00:37in this category, having managed a partial government shutdown costing the economy $1.2
00:43billion a week in economic activity.
00:46However, the Brits, never to let the Colonials get ahead of them last night, have decided
00:51to up the ante and possibly even pull ahead, although we're still waiting for news on
00:55that.
00:57So what's the groundwork on what happened last night?
00:59Well, I mean, first of all, it's hard to top the fast food extravaganza that Donald
01:07Trump hosted at the White House a couple of days ago.
01:10But we have tried our best and happy to report that we are on the way to succeeding.
01:15Yeah, last night, Theresa May suffered a historic defeat in Parliament.
01:20She lost by 202 votes, the worst defeat since 1924.
01:27And widely expected, I think, to a point, not the severity of the loss.
01:32And to be clear, the loss or the vote was not on Brexit itself.
01:37Her losing in Parliament does not mean that Brexit is now over.
01:41The defeat was simply on the manner by which we are going to exit the EU.
01:45So the deal that...
01:46You need to keep your countrymen better informed of that.
01:49Yes.
01:50I was on Twitter last night.
01:51Always a good insight into the human psyche, let me tell you.
01:54Absolutely.
01:55The real dregs of humanity.
01:56Yes.
01:57Well, a number of the dregs in the UK, particularly in London, were insisting last night that
02:01this actually was a vote on Brexit itself.
02:04That the Tories were somehow... had come to their senses and were going to somehow back
02:12away from their two-year-long march out of the EU.
02:16And somehow, all of a sudden, everything was going back to normal.
02:20You just have to seem absolutely, completely, bury your head in the sand, avoidance of
02:26the facts, and living in a world where the sky is a different colour, type of mentality
02:30to believe that.
02:31Yeah.
02:32Or you might just be a bit optimistic.
02:33But...
02:34A bit?
02:35Can we clear the record first and explain what the vote was on?
02:39Yeah.
02:40So the vote was on the deal that Theresa May has spent the last two years negotiating with
02:43the European Union.
02:45So that covers everything from the formal process by which we exit the EU and the time
02:51that we're given after March 29th, when the deadline is, to negotiate a free trade deal.
02:58So the deal that she was putting to Parliament was sort of the rough outline of what our
03:04relationship would look like with the EU.
03:06And then the next couple of years after March 29th was going to be spent sort of essentially
03:10colouring in that sketch and giving it a bit more detail and depth.
03:15So that was what she was defeated on.
03:17And just to add to this, the EU, its leaders have come forth multiple times over the past
03:22few weeks, and especially yesterday, to make sure everyone understood exactly where they
03:25stood.
03:26This was the final deal.
03:28There was no going back, renegotiating, adding to it.
03:31They didn't like this, it was take it or leave it.
03:33Yeah, I mean, the EU has kind of laid out their red lines very, very clearly.
03:37And the sort of future of the European deal or the European dream really rests on how
03:43Britain negotiates its exit out of the EU.
03:46Because if the EU gives Britain too much leeway, then other countries are going to have an
03:51incentive to also push to leave.
03:52And if they get a better deal, and they can kind of stay in the EU, then other countries
03:56are going to do that as well.
03:57So the EU has been very clear about what it will and won't accept.
04:00The UK has been very clear about what it will and won't accept as well.
04:03Unfortunately, those two things don't match up, namely on the backstop or the Irish border,
04:09which the EU insists must be replaced.
04:10Why is it always the Irish is the issue with the English?
04:14I mean, I realize that's an 800-year-old question, but Jesus, grow up.
04:18I'll rephrase that and say, why is it always the English with the Irish?
04:20Unfortunately, the Irish haven't really done anything wrong in this case.
04:23And if you talk to anyone who grew up in Ireland in the years where there was a lot of sectarian
04:27violence, that hard border that existed between Northern and Southern Ireland was a real contributor
04:34to that sense of separation.
04:36And to have that put back in place does risk flaring up a lot of tension.
04:41So there's a lot more at stake here than just economics or politics.
04:45There is a real historic peace agreement that was signed that is in the firing line, which
04:52gives the whole thing a lot more, I guess, gravity.
04:55But the EU has been very clear that they won't move on that.
05:00Whether the EU has some room to maneuver is another question we can get onto later.
05:05I think they've inferred that if the UK shifts its red lines, then they may shift their red
05:10lines a bit.
05:11But neither are going to budge until the other one does, and it's a real game of chicken
05:15at the moment.
05:16All right.
05:17Let's go through the procedures here.
05:18All right.
05:19Last night, we saw the vote fail spectacularly.
05:20Spectacularly.
05:21And I mean spectacularly.
05:22Beforehand, they were talking about 100 votes would be enough to trigger a fall on the pound.
05:26We had 200 votes, which didn't trigger a fall on the pound, by the way.
05:30So of course, Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, gets up after that and says, all right, let's
05:35have a vote of no confidence, which I understand May had already agreed to ahead of time.
05:39Yeah, May essentially said, bring it on, let's have this vote of no confidence, because what
05:43she wants is basically for her government, her Tory party, to give her the backing and
05:48the confidence that she needs.
05:50And then she can continue to essentially argue for a better deal with the EU.
05:56Which the EU has already said is not going to happen.
05:59Doesn't exist.
06:00Yes.
06:01This is a wonderful scenario the country is in at the moment.
06:03All right.
06:05Looking ahead.
06:06Is May going to be prime minister of the UK two days from now?
06:10Most people think she will.
06:11Most people think she's going to win the vote of no confidence that's taking place at 7pm
06:15GMT tonight, which is about 11 o'clock Dubai time.
06:19Most people think she'll win.
06:20She's already got the vocal support of the ERG, which are the hardline Brexiteers, led
06:24by Jacob Rees-Mogg, and the Irish DUP, which she relies on heavily to govern after she
06:31lost her majority in that last general election to last year.
06:35So yes, she's likely to win that, which really brings us back to square one, because then
06:40we have the same leader, the same government, and a deal that has been just spectacularly
06:45trounced.
06:46All right.
06:47Let's back up a little bit, because we'll have to spend more time talking about what's
06:49going to likely come up over the next few days.
06:51Is there a possibility that she won't be?
06:54She'll lose the vote of confidence?
06:56Anything could happen at this point.
06:57If that happens, what's the step then?
07:00What's the mechanism?
07:01So if she loses the vote of no confidence this evening, then there'll be 14 days for
07:07the Conservatives or the Tory party to form a new government, which would essentially
07:11mean a new leader emerging and rallying the support of the party.
07:17Who knows what platform they will use, because as we've already established several times
07:22in this short podcast, there really isn't much room for manoeuvre on a better European
07:27deal or a better Brexit deal.
07:29But yes, they will try and form a government, a new government, among the Conservative party.
07:34They'll have 14 days to do that.
07:36And then if that fails, then there'll be a general election.
07:39All right.
07:40Now, as I understand it, and I'll grant it, my understanding of UK parliamentary procedure
07:44is not excellent.
07:45But I understand if they put language into the motion and it passes, they can immediately,
07:51if that language is included, go to a general election and bypass the 14 day reformation
07:58of a government.
07:59Think that's going to happen?
08:01Possibly.
08:02Possibly.
08:03I mean, I'm not sure if we know exactly what language is in the no confidence motion being
08:06tabled this evening, but I would imagine that that language possibly could quite well be
08:11in there, given that at this point, there's not, as we've established, there's not much
08:14more the Tories can do to get a better deal.
08:17Yeah, but if they put that language in there, it's sort of suicide anyway, because right
08:20now there's a little bit of hope that maybe there'll be some people there who have a little
08:24bit of faith in the process and someone other than Theresa May might be able to do better.
08:29But if it's a risk of a general election and the Tories can be pushed out in general because
08:33of the dissatisfaction with Brexit, there's no way the Tories are going to vote for anything
08:37other than May's confirmation as prime minister, which just seems like a solid shot in the
08:42foot.
08:43Yeah, it really is.
08:44And again, it's like someone said last night, a political pundit said, you know, the vote
08:49is over and now the real fun begins because, you know, really now, everything is on the
08:55table.
08:56Everything is still to play for.
08:57You know, there was, you know, if we want to talk about the markets and about the pound,
09:00for the pound traders, there was nothing more uncertain than last night's result.
09:05If the Theresa May's deal had been voted for, we would have had a formal agreement with
09:09which to leave the EU on March 29th, and there would have been a document which people could
09:14refer to to understand how things are going to work.
09:16I was watching the pound last night to see if it how it would react after the vote, and
09:20it spiked.
09:21It went up.
09:22It got in.
09:23And I'm like, what universe am I living in?
09:24Okay.
09:25All right.
09:26The reason goes back to what you said earlier, I think, which is, I think people are now
09:29optimistic that maybe Brexit won't happen, or at the very least, I think we can safely
09:34say that it won't, that the UK won't pull out on March 29th.
09:40That's just far fetched at the moment.
09:41And so I think that's why people are a bit optimistic.
09:44I think the 29th is probably gone.
09:46I mean, at this point, it's hard to see how we would leave by the 29th.
09:49Yeah, there's going to be an Article 50 extension, which means the UK is in the EU for a longer
09:53period of time.
09:54And I think that's why people try to jump in on that little bit of good news after the
09:59chaos that we've seen over the past two years.
10:01Let's find the good news and then bet heavily on it with our life savings and pray we're
10:06right.
10:07I mean, the pound is pretty cheap.
10:10And it could get a lot worse.
10:12I mean, if you buy in at 128 to the dollar, which is where it was at last night, it could
10:17also go to 110.
10:18It could also go to parity.
10:19It could also go to 1.7, 1.6, 1.5.
10:22And your bet on that it'll go to 1.6 or 1.7 is that ultimately, the Tories will come to
10:27their senses and say, oh, it's a bad idea.
10:29Everyone out.
10:30You know, we're going to stick with the EU.
10:32It's all good.
10:33It ain't going to happen.
10:34Sorry.
10:35No.
10:36But I mean...
10:37They have control over basically who is going to be in charge of the British government
10:42for what is the next five years before there's a mandated general election coming up.
10:46So they're there and they don't want to not have a Brexit.
10:50They want out.
10:51I don't know why everyone seems to be lost on this.
10:55They have the majority.
10:57With the Irish contingent, they can push you anything they want.
11:00There is no sign of sanity that says, yes, this was all a bad idea with Article 50.
11:05Let's cancel the whole thing.
11:06Let's back out of it.
11:07Where is people getting this idea that this is somehow going to end?
11:10I think also one thing that's important to know is that a lot of market traders had the
11:15defeat priced in.
11:17So I think there was a big expectation that she would lose that vote and, you know, not
11:22perhaps by that margin.
11:24But I think that was priced in.
11:25I think there's a lot of uncertainty right now.
11:28And I think it could play out in a number of different ways, which is probably contributing
11:31to the pound.
11:32You know, it's volatile, but it's not two up or two down.
11:36And I think what we should remember is that the chances of a no deal have increased.
11:41I think that's fair to say the chance of no deal have increased, which would be terrible
11:45for business and therefore would probably hit the markets quite hard.
11:49The FTSE 100 is down, by the way.
11:51But I think also it's important to remember that, you know, as that uncertainty I was
11:55referring to earlier, we have a possibility of a second referendum.
12:00We have the possibility of an amended deal, some sort of amended deal, if May can achieve
12:05that.
12:06We have a possibility of a Labour government with Corbyn at the head, which is less likely.
12:10But the bookmakers did slash the odds of him being next prime minister by about half, which
12:15would be disastrous for business.
12:16You know, business does not like Jeremy Corbyn.
12:19He's very anti-business.
12:20He's pro-regulations.
12:23And so that would be, I think, probably the worst nightmare of most trade unions.
12:27But more regulation without Brexit is, I think, better than Brexit without regulations.
12:34I think you could see both potentially.
12:35I mean, Corbyn is not anti-Brexit, right?
12:38So Corbyn is just as invested in seeing Brexit through as the Tory party.
12:43And I think that's what we have to come back to, is that 17 million people voted for Brexit.
12:47You know, 51% of the voting country voted to leave the EU.
12:52So the mandate of the government, whether it's Conservative Party or Labour Party, is
12:56to take the UK out of Europe.
12:58We may not, I may not want that to happen.
12:59Personally, that's my personal belief.
13:01But a large portion of the country does.
13:03Yes, but a large portion of the country has also indicated that they would like a second
13:06vote.
13:07Because they seem to admit they were ill-informed, ignorant, whatever you want to call it, during
13:12the first vote.
13:13And now they feel like, hey, now we understand what this is all about.
13:17And now we'd like to get out.
13:18And it seems the Tory party is adamant that they're not going to let that happen.
13:22Because they feel like the majority of their voters and the majority of the country, if
13:26you want to call 51% a majority, still want the UK to leave, despite everything we've
13:31seen over the last two years.
13:32Do they believe that?
13:33Or are they just being obstinate because this is what they want?
13:36Because I don't believe that 51%, I don't think anyone really believes 51% of the UK
13:41wants out of the EU.
13:42I think that number has definitely diminished.
13:44It has, but I think if you look at Conservative Party polling, so the way obviously...
13:48So the people who are looking for self-justifying data have found it.
13:52Gee, what a surprise.
13:53I think what you have to remember is that, and this is not to get too into the weeds
13:57on the way the election system works in the UK, but everyone has their constituency.
14:03And if you're a member of parliament representing an area of the UK, Manchester or whatever,
14:09and you poll Manchester and the Manchester majority still wants you to see Britain leave
14:15the EU, then that's what you're going to push for in government.
14:17So they're really protecting their own backsides as opposed to doing perhaps what many people
14:22believe is the right decision.
14:24I thought the US was in bad shape on the voting system.
14:28Brits are really pushing it for that title of who's craziest.
14:32But, you know, really, now let's, if we talk about what would happen if Jeremy Corbyn were
14:37to become prime minister and the Labour Party were to win a general election, what options
14:42does he have?
14:43I mean, he really doesn't have many cards to play left.
14:45I think he might, he might, what's the word I'm looking for, he might opt for a second
14:50referendum.
14:51But publicly he's not agreed to a second referendum.
14:54He's been against the idea.
14:55So he is, you know, he can, he's can talk a great game about sort of getting a better
15:01deal with the EU because it's really easy, right?
15:03Like if you're in charge, like I could say, you know, Scott, being an editor is so easy.
15:08I could do a great job, blah, blah, blah.
15:10Until I actually have to sit.
15:11We've all said it.
15:12We've all said it.
15:13Yeah, exactly.
15:14Until I have to sit in his chair and then the proof is in the pudding, right?
15:16I have to then prove that I can do what I've said I've done.
15:19It's very easy for Corbyn to say I could get a better deal with the EU, leave it to me.
15:24When in reality, he doesn't actually have to prove that.
15:25And actually, most people in most insiders who know what he's like and have seen him
15:30discussing the issue of Brexit with EU officials have said he's a complete disaster.
15:35He's a wet towel.
15:36You know, he doesn't have the backbone that May has.
15:40And May's been criticized as well.
15:41So, you know, the idea that Corbyn can get a better deal with the EU is, again, absurd.
15:45Well, the whole thing's absurd.
15:47This is the podcast on that.
15:50This is Donald Trump negotiating here.
15:53Just don't listen to what the other guy says.
15:55Just double down on whatever you believe and go forward with it.
15:59Facts.
16:00Who needs facts?
16:01Yeah.
16:02The EU started off this whole process a couple years ago saying, if you leave, we're going
16:05to make it hurt.
16:07And the UK doesn't seem to wake up to that fact that this is not going to go their way.
16:11No.
16:12Yeah.
16:13I mean, the EU has to make it hurt.
16:14The EU has to send a message to the other 27 member states that leaving the EU is not
16:19a good idea.
16:20And you can call that...
16:21I feel like they've kind of partly accomplished that through the past two years of Brexit.
16:25100%.
16:26I mean, there's nothing that's going to put a country off leaving more than witnessing
16:30the car crash.
16:31Yeah.
16:32And yet we still have, you know, the Brexiteers going, oh, we'll negotiate some more.
16:36This will go fine.
16:37No problems.
16:38Yeah.
16:39Or the hardliners who go, let's not even negotiate.
16:43We'll be fine without them.
16:44We'll be fine without a deal.
16:45When all of the research the government has commissioned, independent research and party
16:50research has suggested that a no deal could lead to absolute chaos, you know, back-up
16:55and the like.
16:56Flights will not be able to move from airports if there is no deal.
16:59Medicine won't be able to get into the country.
17:01There'll be a shortage of kind of critical supplies, you know, important like abused
17:06women shelters and orphanages will have to shut down temporarily because there'll be
17:09no funding for it.
17:11I mean, the whole thing, the idea of a no deal Brexit is a complete disaster.
17:17And yet some hardliners are still pushing for it.
17:21And you know, that and that's what's scary about it is that they, you know, there's been
17:25a lot of talk of we're not having no deal is not on the table, you know, there's been
17:28a lot.
17:29I mean, there's always this minority everywhere, the far right, right?
17:32Yeah.
17:33But unfortunately, they have a voice in our government and they can dictate to some extent
17:37what happens, the outcome of this situation.
17:39So you know, it's not just some fringe lunatic.
17:43It's people.
17:44It's a bunch of fringe lunatics.
17:45It's a bunch of fringe lunatics who are lawmakers who are elected officials.
17:48And you know, they have complete disdain for the EU and for Brussels.
17:52And they believe that, you know, we would be just as fine without them.
17:56One of these days, we need to do a podcast talking about what gets into people's heads
17:59to think, make them think these things, right?
18:02What brings you to the idea that, oh, my God, the UK is so worse off because we're a member
18:06of the European Union.
18:08Yeah, it's that idea of kind of, it's always referred to America, American exceptionalism.
18:15So again, it's Frick and white people is the problem.
18:18True.
18:19Shall we leave it here?
18:22Let's just leave it to Logan.
18:24My producer's heart just stopped a beat because he's worried about what's coming out of my
18:27mouth.
18:28Of three white people.
18:29Yeah.
18:30You're allowed to say that.
18:31You're right.
18:32Yeah.
18:33So yeah, I think like, so if we just to go back to what comes next and you know, at least
18:39something that we kind of have, you know, and we know what's coming, March 29th is the
18:45deadline and as we've already said, that looks less likely to be reached now.
18:51So that would require a formal application to Brussels to extend that to ask for an extension
18:56of Article 50.
18:57How long can they extend it for?
18:59Any idea?
19:00I haven't seen anything on that yet.
19:01I believe it's two years.
19:02Oh, so we get to go through two years of them having fake negotiations to accomplish nothing.
19:08If you were in a coma for the past two years from July 2016 till today, and you woke up
19:16and you said, so what did I miss in terms of the UK?
19:18What have I accomplished?
19:19Nothing.
19:20You didn't miss anything.
19:21We're back where we were in July 2016.
19:22The crazy thing, we will have been, we will have voted to leave the EU and we'll still
19:27be in the process of exiting in the time that Donald Trump has been president.
19:32He would have come, if he doesn't get reelected, he'll have come and gone in the time that
19:36we're still trying to get out of the EU.
19:39If we're still negotiating our deal in 2021 or whatever it is.
19:44But the good news is that the EU does not want that.
19:46Like the EU, like the German, the head of the German Chamber of Commerce said this morning,
19:52he was like, we'd rather a horrific ending than a drawn out horror.
19:57You know, essentially to say, we'd rather no deal come March 29th than two more years
20:03of this because the uncertainty is just not really helping anyone.
20:07So in that classic German way, he's sort of laid out Germany's position.
20:13But that being said, Berlin...
20:14You just get the feeling Germany would like to pack up house and move away from the crazies
20:18who live next door.
20:19Probably.
20:20Yeah.
20:21They're driving property prices down.
20:22That being said, Germany is a little bit more flexible than France.
20:28France are very, very anti-UK leaving the EU.
20:33And in that vein, they would tolerate a no deal Brexit to really make a point.
20:39Macron is very keen on anyone really leaving the EU being punished, essentially, for trying
20:45to do so.
20:46Obviously, at the last election in France, he was challenged by Marie Le Pen, who wanted
20:51to have a Frexit or a French exit from the EU.
20:54So he wants to send a strong message to his country.
20:57Also, he stands to benefit from Brexit if you want to be conspiratorial about it, because
21:01a lot of the big trading firms and financial services companies have talked about moving
21:05to Paris in the event of Brexit.
21:07So he perhaps has something to gain from Brexit.
21:10But yeah, Berlin is a bit more flexible than Paris is being at the moment.
21:15But in general, the EU has sort of said, well, we're going to wait and see.
21:18Well, yeah, because the Brits generally buy a lot of imports and German goods.
21:23So they're going to lose a large market if the UK pulls out.
21:29With no deal.
21:30Yeah.
21:31And I mean, there'll be a free trade agreement that comes in a couple of years.
21:34But yeah, a couple of years with no trade.
21:36That's always fun.
21:37Yeah.
21:38It's not fun for anyone, really.
21:39But yes, if they extend it, they could extend it for quite some time.
21:43And again, Brussels just really doesn't want that.
21:46And you know, the patience of the business community in the UK is wearing very thin at
21:51the moment.
21:52Really?
21:53You'd be surprised.
21:54You might be surprised to hear.
21:55But yeah, business people aren't quite enjoying this.
21:59Enjoying it, but not enough to do anything about it.
22:01It's sort of like in the US.
22:02Everyone's unhappy about the shutdown, but no one's actually got off their butt to do
22:04something about it yet.
22:06It seems everyone's grousing about it in the UK.
22:08But I haven't seen any cohesive action to really drive home the fact of this needs to
22:13be done one way or the other.
22:15Yeah.
22:16I mean, there's been a lot of agitation or public action.
22:19There's been over a million people marched in the streets of London a few months ago.
22:24That's a weekend in the US.
22:25I mean, you did it once.
22:26That's true.
22:27Yeah, that's true.
22:28I mean, it's interesting, actually.
22:29Like, the last time in my lifetime I've seen such a sort of division in the country was
22:35over the Iraq war, the invasion of Iraq.
22:38And actually, that was the greatest rebellion of a leader's party against his or her vote
22:44in Commons when Tony Blair was defeated over his invasion of Iraq, which, as we all know,
22:51he went on to do anyway.
22:53He was defeated by 139 rebels in his own party.
22:56And it's fascinating, you know, the idea that an invasion of a country, or rather the exit
23:03of the UK from the EU, is even comparable to the invasion of a country.
23:07I mean, this is the kind of thing we're dealing with.
23:09It's almost like declaring war.
23:12It's a huge, huge thing that has implications for generations.
23:15And Theresa May said that last night.
23:17She said, this is the most important vote of any of our political careers and will be
23:21remembered for what happens this evening for generations to come.
23:25And Parliament turned around and gave her the finger.
23:28Yeah, well, they'll be remembered in the same way as Neville Chamberlain.
23:31Yeah.
23:32You know, somebody else who probably did something that wasn't the smartest move.
23:36No, no.
23:37But yeah, so it's a disaster.
23:40I mean, it really is.
23:42There was a tweet I read, was it last week, I think.
23:46And I thought, oh, this is a nice joke.
23:48But now that you guys mentioned or that the vote has happened, I'm thinking, this is actually
23:53real.
23:54I'll read it out.
23:55The person who tweeted it is Nick McPherson.
23:58And his bio says that he's a former Treasury official.
24:01He said time for some honesty about Brexit.
24:03There's no way the UK will negotiate a trade deal with the EU by December 2020.
24:08Even 2022 is very optimistic.
24:10Mid 2020 is more likely.
24:12Yeah.
24:13And I mean, I mean, we know how long I read that back then.
24:15And I thought, oh, that's funny.
24:17That's cute.
24:18I like it.
24:19But now, I mean, it's pretty realistic.
24:20You're just being serious.
24:21Yeah.
24:22I mean, like, you look at how long NAFTA took to negotiate, you look at how long the Trans-Pacific
24:25Partnership took.
24:26Like you said, this is historic.
24:27So I mean, it can't be easy.
24:28We didn't shut down the economy for those two trade deals to go through.
24:34Yeah, exactly.
24:35Yeah.
24:36It seems like what you're heading for.
24:37I mean, it's I mean, the EU is our largest trading partner as a bloc.
24:39So to essentially shut them out for potentially a decade whilst we negotiate a free trade
24:44agreement with them.
24:45And, you know, Obama said, we'll go to the back of the queue if we vote to leave the
24:50EU in terms of negotiating a trade deal with the EU, sorry, with the US, a free trade agreement.
24:56And Trump, you know, said, like, oh, I like the idea of Brexit.
24:59I think Brexit's a good idea.
25:01And then...
25:02Why am I not surprised?
25:03So the man who shut down the government.
25:04Yeah, exactly.
25:05As he does with most things, he backtracked on that and now says, actually, the UK has
25:09annoyed me and therefore the UK will go back to the back of the queue for an agreement
25:12with the US.
25:14You know, there's no, I mean, there's no one really willing to, maybe the GCC will agree
25:19to a free trade agreement with that.
25:21I interviewed, actually, the business commissioner, the head of like the UK's diplomatic service
25:26to the Middle East.
25:27And he's in charge of all business relations with the Middle East.
25:30And he's actually ex-head of First Gulf Bank.
25:33He was CEO and he's now working for the government.
25:36And he was like, yeah, I mean, after Brexit, we will begin to start to lay the groundwork
25:41of a free trade agreement.
25:43Probably not with the Gulf, because the Gulf is not really, you know, agreeing to things
25:48with a unity.
25:49And, you know, I believe, I think China's tried to been trying to negotiate a free trade
25:53agreement.
25:54I'm sorry, it's the EU has tried to negotiate a free trade agreement with the GCC.
25:57It's been going on for a decade now.
25:59So he's like, we will try and start signing agreements with the UAE, with Saudi.
26:04But I mean, the whole thing, it takes a long time and you have to hammer out the details.
26:08And I don't think we'll ever have a stronger position than we do now as part of a collective
26:12bargaining block with the EU.
26:16And on that note.
26:17I want to cry.
26:18All right.
26:19I think we'll probably wrap it up on that particular note.
26:22Of course, you can always check back next week to see who's winning the game of who's
26:26craziest.
26:27I'm sure Trump will probably have something to up the game because they're talking about
26:32hoping for the people who provide security at airports to go on strike to totally disrupt
26:38the US as a way to break the gridlock there.
26:41Might actually make it worse than the UK, at least in the short term.
26:44In the short term.
26:45All right.
26:46So if you want to find this podcast, you can always find us on iTunes and you can always
26:51find this podcast at DermsDollars on Twitter.
26:54I'm Scott Shuey and you can find me at Scott Shuey also on Twitter.
26:58I'm Ed Klaus and I'm on Twitter at Ed Klaus.
27:01And I'm Sarah Adea and I'm on Twitter at the Sarah Adea.
27:04Thank you so much for listening.