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00:00To bring in our next guest, Michael Benhamou is director of OpiWire, which is Europe's
00:04war institute.
00:05Michael, thanks for being with us.
00:06I know you came to talk about another issue, but can I ask you about your feelings about
00:10what Trump has said, because saying things like that Zelensky's rating is at 4%, he's
00:15a dictator because there's no elections in Ukraine and martial law has been imposed,
00:19but of course that happens in the state of war, and obviously blaming Ukraine for starting
00:23the war when that is total nonsense.
00:25What do you think about Trump's words?
00:27He's just trying to destabilize the situation, and he's successfully destabilizing the situation.
00:31This is a psychological shock for Europe and for Ukraine.
00:35It's of course false.
00:36Zelensky is not at 4%, he's closer to 50, 60%.
00:41As for the budget figures that he's giving, they are also very inaccurate.
00:45Basically Americans have spent $40 billion per year on average in Ukraine, which is 120
00:51approximately.
00:52Same for Europe, it's 120, 130 for Europe, which is a bit less than what Americans spent
00:59in Afghanistan during the last two years.
01:01They spent $50 billion for Afghanistan 2019.
01:04The danger here though, that Trump is starting to sound like he's Vladimir Putin's puppet,
01:10isn't he?
01:11Like, you know, strings are being pulled by Putin and Trump's just saying what Putin wants
01:14him to say.
01:15It just seems that way.
01:16I think there is an intent behind, which is business intent.
01:18I think he's very interested in making business with Russia more than with Ukraine, frankly.
01:23I don't see American companies investing in Ukraine, which is destabilized, whose security
01:27is not guaranteed.
01:29I think the long-term view of Trump, if there is one, and I believe there is one, is to
01:35open the Russian markets to American companies.
01:38America is very much becoming an opportunistic country, like you see in the rest of the world
01:43with the Global South, for example, doing multi-alignments.
01:47For example, India, Indonesia, Brazil.
01:50I think America is very much in that path of being very opportunistic.
01:55So the discussion between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia, are we reading from what
02:00you're saying there, that that's been more about lining up commercial possibilities rather
02:05than trying to seek a solution for Ukraine?
02:07No, Ukraine is not really important for this American administration.
02:11They're all about...
02:12It's a terrible thing to say, isn't it?
02:13America's economy is not doing well.
02:16The global economy is stagnating at the moment, and it has been stagnating for many, many
02:20decades now.
02:22And so America is, like many, many countries, is trying to stay afloat and stay in the game.
02:29And the way for them to stay in the game, according to Trump, is by being brutal, by
02:34being aggressive, and by forgetting past alliances, because alliances is very constraining.
02:41Alliances, they limit your maneuver.
02:44And so for the first time, America is publicly saying, we are doing something else, which
02:51is being on our own and doing anything we want to do.
02:55You're saying that Trump's words, the sensationalization of what he is saying, you're saying his words
03:00are about trying to somehow deflect from the fact that things aren't working out the way
03:04he wants it to be.
03:05His ratings are down 3% already, down to 44%.
03:09That's by reporting from Reuters, a trustworthy source, Reuters.
03:13I think, unfortunately, I mean, it's not just Trump.
03:16There's a trend in America's foreign policy.
03:19Look at AUKUS, for example, the submarine deal that the Americans have snatched from
03:24the French, $65 billion worth of submarine contract.
03:28Look at also, for example, the South Stream destruction, which is probably an American
03:34action.
03:35Look at also the fiscal tension between the US and Europe for the past decades.
03:42I know that many people are still in denial, especially in the centre of Europe and in
03:47the east of Europe.
03:48But yes, America is diverging from Europe.
03:51It's not just this man.
03:54It's a system which is diverging from here, from Europe.
04:01So if you were in Vladimir Zelensky's shoes this evening, what would you be thinking?
04:06Because clearly, you can see when he makes his comment regarding what Trump said, he's
04:10really biting his tongue.
04:12Trying to be as diplomatic as he can, but to come out and say he thinks Trump is living
04:17in a Russian misinformation bubble, it's possibly the biggest insult he could throw at Trump,
04:23isn't it?
04:24I would do what he's doing.
04:25You know, I think it's pretty good.
04:26Over the past few days, I would push the Europeans to be stronger, push them to more European
04:32military cooperation, perhaps a NATO that would become European to a larger extent.
04:38This is what OPY, my think tank, has been pushing for at least a year now on this set.
04:45And it's becoming a reality de facto, because Americans are pulling out and the Europeans
04:49are now filling this organisation with troops and with officers.
04:54So I think he's doing a good job as saying to the Europeans, you know, we have to do
05:00this ourselves now.
05:01The problem is, we have the money, but the factories are in America, to sum it up in
05:08a few words, you know, we could basically cover for the $40 billion annual budget.
05:16There's not enough manufacturing capacity here.
05:18Again, America is spending $40 billion per year.
05:21So we could do it.
05:22You know, we could, politicians could tell citizens, taxpayers, there is a problem.
05:27We have to solve it.
05:28But the problem is, the factories, 80% of them approximately, are in America.
05:34And Trump is not going to accept foreign military sales while signing a peace deal
05:41with Russia.
05:43So we have an issue of military capacities.
05:46They have been ramped up over the past few years.
05:49We can do more, but not enough.
05:51Michael, we need to leave it there.
05:53There's so much more to be said, but sadly, time against us.
05:56Michael O'Bannon, Director of OPY, which is Europe's War Institute, thanks for coming
05:59in and sharing your views with us here on France 24.
06:02The analysis is always invaluable in this story.
06:05And Michael, thank you for coming in.