This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond 25/02/2025 – What’s to come as head into spring? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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00:00Hello. It has been a bit of a long winter. It's felt pretty long at times, but there's
00:06only four days left to go. Meteorologically, spring starts on the 1st of March, which is
00:11this Saturday. I'll be having a look at what we can kind of expect as we go through, well,
00:16the rest of this week and also through spring as well. And I'll also be looking at a few
00:21things around the world and a bit of what's going on in space too. As always, a jam-packed
00:27full deep dive ahead of us, so welcome along. Welcome, especially if this is your first
00:32deep dive that you've ever watched, but also welcome back if you've watched many of these
00:36before. I am Alex Burkill, weather presenter and meteorologist here at the Met Office,
00:41and I'm coming to you from our headquarters here in Exeter. Let's get going then. Oh,
00:47actually, before I crack on, remember, as always, hit the like button if you've enjoyed
00:51anything that I've been talking about today. Do leave your comments and questions if you're
00:55watching this on YouTube, as I will be able to answer some of them later on. And also,
00:59make sure you share this with anyone that you think might be interested. We want to
01:03make sure as many people as possible get to enjoy the wonder that is a Met Office deep
01:09dive. But let's get going. Let's start off by looking at the weather through the next
01:13few days. And at the moment, well, it's going to be a relatively quiet night as we go through
01:19Tuesday night and into Wednesday. But through into Wednesday, we do have a weather system
01:23coming in from the West, and this is going to bring some fairly heavy rain as we go through
01:28Wednesday morning. The rain, it's a relatively narrow band of rain, though, so it's not going
01:34to bring especially high totals. We're talking 10, 15 millimeters, that kind of thing. So
01:39a substantial amount of wet start for places in the West, but quite quickly that rain clearing
01:45away towards the east. And actually, if I just pause it there, because that's quite
01:48important, because the rain clears quite quickly away from parts of Northern Ireland
01:54with some relatively chilly air nearby, we could actually see a bit of ice first thing
02:00on Wednesday morning for parts of Northern Ireland. So do be aware of that. Otherwise,
02:05and if I get the rain back on, the other thing that you'll notice is, yes, the rain could
02:09be quite heavy, could be a bit of thunder mixed in with it as it pushes its way eastwards.
02:13There could also be some winteriness, some sleet, some snow, particularly over higher
02:18ground. And let's have a look at that then. If we get up our freezing levels, remember
02:22our freezing level is where it's zero degrees and how high above sea level that zero degree
02:28layer is. And there are lots of blues indicating that the freezing level as we go through while
02:34this is Tuesday midday is around the six, 800 meter mark. So pretty high ground for
02:40that case. But as we dart ahead through this evening, and actually, if I just play it through
02:45as we it's going to go a bit slowly, but there will as we go through into actually, let's
02:50go ahead to tomorrow morning through tomorrow morning. There are some places where you can
02:55see the freezing levels dropping to around the two to 400 meter mark. And so as that
03:00frontal system pushes its way in with freezing levels, yeah, around two to 400 meters in
03:06some places, some sleet and snow over modest high ground. We're talking about three to
03:11400 meters, that kind of thing. That's where you're likely to see a bit of winteriness
03:15as we go through tomorrow because of that band of rain coming through. Like some, though,
03:19most places seeing rain could be a bit heavy, but it should move through relatively quickly.
03:24That doesn't mean it's totally dry thereafter. Actually, if I go to the UK view and if we'd
03:29get rid of that for a second, let's go to Wednesday and you can see this is Wednesday
03:34one o'clock. By this point, the band of rain's really cleared away. Most places just lingering
03:39in the far east of East Anglia, perhaps tip of Kent. But behind it, a rash of showers.
03:44Many places at risk of seeing, yes, some sunny spells, but also plenty of showers. And some
03:49of these could be quite heavy. There could be some rumbles of thunder, even a bit of
03:53hail mixed in with them as well. At this time of year, you wouldn't expect particularly
03:57particularly large hail, just generally quite small stuff. But nonetheless, yeah, we could
04:02see some further sleet and hill snow, but also some hail and perhaps even some thunderstorms
04:08mixed in. Notice across parts of northern Scotland actually avoiding both most of the
04:13rain from this band, but also most of the showers. So a fairly decent day there. A lot
04:18of dry weather to be had. What happens thereafter? And let's go back to the bigger picture. And
04:26we have, if I dart ahead to, well, Thursday morning or this is Wednesday evening, but
04:31that system then clears away. And actually, as we go into Wednesday, sorry, Thursday
04:36into Friday, we have this high pressure building from the west. Now, you all no doubt know
04:41if you're a regular deep dive, you're even just a regular amateur meteorologist that
04:46you'll no doubt know high pressure generally settles our weather down. And that's what
04:50we're going to see as we go through the last few days of meteorological winter. Yes, high
04:54pressure firmly dominating as we go through Thursday and into Friday. With that in mind
04:59through Thursday, we're going to see a few showers around. If I go back to the UK view
05:04for Thursday, a few showers, but these will be easing as we go through the day because
05:10of that high pressure building. Still some brisk winds towards eastern parts, but these
05:14will be easing as well. On the whole, though, many places actually having a decent day with
05:19some bright sunny spells. But if we dart ahead to Friday and with high pressure more firmly
05:24in control for much of the UK, it's looking like a pretty fine day indeed for the last
05:30day of meteorological winter. A few showers around, perhaps where we see any cumulus bubbling
05:37up, we could see a couple of showers developing. But on the whole, it is looking generally
05:41fine, some decent bright and at times sunny weather. Not necessarily warm, though. If
05:47we have a look at the temperatures because of the time of year, let's go back to this
05:51view and if I put temperatures on, if I dart ahead to Friday, with the high pressure, we
05:56have some pretty cold air around us as well. And with high pressure, like I said, it turns
06:02fairly calm, going to have some clear skies as we go through Thursday night into Friday.
06:07Calm winds, clear skies and some cold air. Perfect ingredients for it to be pretty chilly.
06:13Now, if we look at a couple of things, what do I want to show you this? Let's get up our
06:18temperatures and if we do our minimum temperatures for the next few nights and actually I'm going
06:23to ignore Tuesday morning. So these are Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning.
06:27You can see Friday morning, it looks pretty chilly indeed. These are your towns and cities.
06:33So most places holding up a degree or so above freezing. But in rural spots, it could fall
06:38several degrees below, even across some parts of England. We're looking at minus four, minus
06:43five Celsius. So that does mean that there is the risk of some frost, perhaps, as we
06:49go through into Friday. What else can I show you with regards to this? Well, here we go.
06:55These are our temperature anomalies for overnight temperatures. So our minimum temperatures
06:59for the next few nights. We have Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday
07:03night. And you can see actually across Scotland, the northern half of Scotland, especially
07:09even parts of Northern Ireland, Friday. Oh, actually, I mean, Thursday night into Friday
07:13night. I feel like these may be labelled slightly wrong because I thought Friday night was Thursday
07:20night was going to be the colder one. But nonetheless, through Thursday night into Friday
07:24night, they are going to be quite chilly. I think that should say Friday morning. But
07:28yeah, so a cold, perhaps even frosty start across parts of England and Wales with temperatures
07:34significantly below average for the end of February. And even into Saturday, we keep
07:42with the colder air across southern parts, something a bit milder, though, across more
07:46northern areas, which I'll talk about in a second. Actually, let's talk about it in a
07:52second, because the other thing that I wanted to show you, the difference between Thursday
07:58night, sorry, Thursday morning and Friday morning. So on the left hand side, these are
08:03the forecast temperatures for Friday morning, and they're highlighting the coldest spots.
08:07You may not be able to read the digits, but lots of places coming up a few degrees below
08:11freezing, like I said, minus four, minus five possible through the early hours of Friday
08:16morning in some rural spots. But I think the big contrast in comparison between the temperatures
08:22between Thursday morning and Friday morning on this chart on the right, the blues indicating
08:27many places going to be markedly colder on Friday morning than they will have been on
08:31Thursday. Then what happens thereafter as we go towards the weekend and so, like I said,
08:39high pressure dominating for Friday. But then if I press play and we then have a frontal
08:44system that's coming in from the northwest, there's an area of low pressure somewhere
08:49towards Iceland, Greenland area, and the front that trails down is then going to make its
08:53way southeastwards as we go into the weekend. Now, on Saturday, we still firmly have high
08:58pressure across the bulk of the UK. So this front is going to kind of bash against that
09:03high pressure. It's not going to make much progress. The rain is really going to be confined
09:07to Scotland, perhaps Northern Ireland. It could be a little bit heavy for a time. We're
09:12talking 10, 15 millimetres perhaps in some places again across Scotland and Northern
09:17Ireland. But it's going to ease and break up as we go through the day. It's not going
09:22to make much progress south. So actually, for much of the country, if I just dart back
09:27a little bit, for much of the country, I'll put my cloud on across the bulk of England
09:35and Wales, particularly towards the south, southeast. Saturday looks like another largely
09:40fine day. Some rain trying to come in from the northwest. Exactly how far south that
09:44front pushes, there is some uncertainty. But I think it's going to stay mainly across Scotland,
09:49Northern Ireland, perhaps the north of England and maybe North Wales. But on the whole, for
09:52southern areas, it looks like it will be largely fine. Worth bearing in mind a couple of things.
09:57That we could see some cumulus and fair weather cloud bubbling up across southern parts. So
10:01that doesn't rule out a shower developing. But I think generally it's going to be mostly
10:05dry. And then the other thing to bear in mind is, although this front is pushing its way
10:09southwards and then it's losing a lot of its oomph as it hits against this high pressure,
10:15there will still be the remnants of it. So there could be quite a cloudy zone somewhere
10:19across central, perhaps even northern parts as we go through Saturday night into Sunday.
10:26So this could bring a bit of rain perhaps at times. It's going to keep things quite
10:30grey really for some places. But behind it, something a bit brighter. And to the southeast
10:37of this, something a bit clearer, should I say, rather than brighter. But exactly where
10:41this front's going to be lying in terms of the cloud amounts, well, that's still all
10:44to play for for the time being. Let's run this a bit further forward because that high
10:49pressure trying to cling on as we go into Sunday. But then it's kind of a rinse and
10:53repeat in as much as another area of low pressure somewhere towards Iceland Greenland
10:57area. And then another front makes its way southeastwards as we go through Sunday. Bit
11:03slower coming through. And so it's probably going to be late Sunday, more so into Monday
11:07that we start to see that front actually pushing its way in. But nonetheless, a bit of a unsettled
11:13picture towards the northwest of the UK. Some stronger winds, if I just put those on, see
11:17some stronger winds towards the northwest and a greater chance of seeing some wet weather
11:21all the time towards the south southeast. You have a greater chance of staying largely
11:25dry. So some decent fine weather as we go into the start of spring. For many places,
11:31not everywhere, but for many places, there will be some fine weather around just exactly
11:36how far across across these fronts get. That's where there is a little bit of uncertainty.
11:43So that's just something to bear in mind. Now, what else did I want to show? I guess
11:48there's the risk of fog as we go through the next few days, as you would expect with
11:51high pressure this time of year. I know it is, you know, we're getting close to spring,
11:56but nonetheless, it is still the time of year where we do get some fog. So behind me, I
12:00have the probability of seeing visibility below 200 meters for the mornings as we go
12:06into the weekend. So Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning. And the position
12:11of where we're most likely to see the fog changes a little bit across Friday morning.
12:16It shifts into parts of northwest England, into the Midlands, towards like the borders
12:20area of Scotland and perhaps parts of Northern Ireland. Then the focus of it shifts a little
12:24bit further eastwards. It's more for East Anglia as we go through into Saturday morning
12:29and then through Sunday morning. There's a bit more moisture around because that front
12:33that's tried to push its way in. And so there's a greater chance perhaps of a few places across
12:38well much of England and Wales. But again, the borders area seeing some fog on Sunday
12:42morning. So do take care below 200 meters. That's fairly dense. It could be a bit denser
12:47than that in some places. So if you are heading out on the roads early on these mornings,
12:51then do be aware there could be some poor visibility issues, fortunately, because the
12:55sun's getting some more strength behind it. Once the sun does come up, we would expect
13:00it to clear away relatively quickly. So shouldn't cause too many issues. Great. I think that's
13:07all I wanted to talk about. Oh, actually, the only other thing that I did want to highlight,
13:11if we just go back to this picture, if I go towards the end of as far as my graphics
13:17go, where's the jet stream? There it is. Let's get rid of that for the time being. And where's
13:21this? Let's go to the end. So Sunday midday and this kind of set up with lower pressure
13:27towards the north-northwest of the UK, higher pressure towards the south. That looks likely
13:32to be the general pattern as we go through well next week and deeper into spring. Now,
13:38there's always been some signs that we are going to get into a more changeable unsettled
13:43pattern around a week or so's time, maybe a week to 10 days away. That change has kind
13:50of been delayed. And so we've always been talking about it coming in around a week or
13:5410 days time. And so it is going to take a bit of a change as we go through next week,
14:01probably now towards the end of next week, that we'll start to see something a bit more
14:05unsettled predominantly. But I think as a whole next week's looking a bit of a north-south
14:10split more unsettled towards the north, drier towards the south. But we probably will see
14:14our temperatures generally rising as we go through. Actually, I didn't really show you
14:19much about temperatures for the week that we've just had. So let's have a look at those.
14:23Let's start off by looking at our minimum temperatures. And I keep picking the wrong
14:28thing. But here we go. I didn't want to talk about minimum temperatures. Let's talk about
14:33temperatures as a whole. I've picked Arsenal FC again. I have a habit of doing that. But
14:38I was meant to pick London, but nonetheless. So here are our temperatures. And the point
14:42that I wanted to show is that it is getting colder as we go towards, well, Thursday, Friday
14:47and into the weekend. If we look at the minimum temperatures, you can see dropping down, well,
14:52Arsenal dropping some points as we go into the weekend. Let's hope that doesn't happen
14:57this weekend. Let's have a look at Manchester. Oh, OK. They're picking up some points this
15:03weekend. Let's hope that's not the case. But my point being, there's some colder air.
15:08The further towards the south you are, if I just pick a random place, Legoland, then
15:12you can see that there is a drop in temperatures as we go through Friday into Saturday. And
15:17then it gradually starts to pick up next week. Meanwhile, further north, if we just pick
15:21a random place, the drop is going to be a little bit earlier. And then by Friday, Saturday
15:26time, we're already seeing those temperatures. I think this is a high site, hence why those
15:30temperatures are so low. We're going to see those temperatures rising a little bit earlier
15:33because of those frontal systems that are coming in from the northwest. So when you're
15:37under the high pressure, it could be quite chilly. But as that comes through, it could
15:41be. But as the more unsettled weather starts to come through, we're going to see our temperatures
15:46rising. The other thing that I wanted to highlight is this trend of things getting a little bit
15:51warmer. Let's just pick somewhere that looks a bit warmer, perhaps Derby. Trend for temperatures
15:57rising. So as we go into next week, and like I said, across southern parts, good chance
16:04that we'll have a decent amount of fine, dry times, sunny weather and with temperatures
16:08probably a little bit above average for the time of year, actually feeling pretty spring
16:13like at this time of year. You know, the sun's got some decent strength to it. And so in
16:18the sunshine, feeling pretty pleasant away from any unsettled weather towards the northwest.
16:24And then the other caveat that I did need to point out, the deputy chief made me or
16:30wanted to stress this. Whilst there will be more unsettled or likely to be more unsettled
16:35weather towards the northwest, some systems are probably going to push their way southeastwards
16:39across the whole of the UK as we go through next week. And so there will be some wet weather
16:44across southern parts, but just less than further north. Great. Right. I think that's
16:50all I wanted to cover UK weather wise. I will also, like always, every Tuesday we update
16:57the 14 day outlook, which is available on our app. So do check that out as I'll be going
17:01into be showing some extra charts to suggest what we can expect through the next two weeks.
17:07But the global weather that I wanted to talk about is the cold air across parts of Middle
17:13East. But that's not really showing up because I've gone too far ahead in the future. But
17:16if we go to now and yeah, across parts of Iraq, around Baghdad, Syria, temperatures
17:24around 10 to 15 degrees below average at the moment. And we've already seen some subzero
17:29temperatures by night. And whilst we're starting to see a recovery, if I just play this through,
17:35you can see the colder air starting to clear away further north. So temperatures are picking
17:39up through the next couple of days. Nonetheless, we could still have some nights with temperatures
17:44of around minus 5. And that's pretty cold. Remember, in this part of the world, a lot
17:49of people are displaced, a lot of people living under canvas. And so the cold weather is going
17:55to have some significant impact. Add to that the fact that to alleviate the cold, there'll
17:59be some extra fires burning. And that's going to lead to poor air quality, which will also
18:05have an impact on people who are living, well, who are displaced at the moment. So that is
18:11a bit of a cause for concern at the moment across parts of the Middle East as we go through
18:15the next couple of days. But fortunately, temperatures are rising back to average as
18:20we go through the rest of this week. Now, like I said, winter almost at an end. Meteorological
18:29winter, we've almost made it through. But I just wanted to have a quick look at some
18:35of the stats following in this season. And I don't have the full details here. We will
18:39be releasing the provisional stats on Friday, I think. Friday's the last day. So they won't
18:45be the full stats, because we won't get those until Saturday. But we'll be releasing the
18:50more detailed stats on Friday. So do check that out. We'll probably be doing a blog.
18:54But you'll be able to see it across our social media. But the main headlines, and some of
18:58them may surprise you, from the winter just gone, 2024 to 2025, was that it has been milder
19:03than average. If we look at mean temperature, it's been around half a degree milder than
19:08average. So nothing special, but just ever so slightly. It has been drier than average.
19:14Now, I think that might surprise some of us. It's not been massively drier. Now, up until
19:19this point, I have data up to and including the 24th of February. So still a few days
19:23left for, yeah, like four days left of winter. And there is some wet weather to come through,
19:31Wednesday, for example. But at the moment, it's around 87% of the average rainfall you'd
19:37expect through the whole season. So it's probably going to be close to like the 89,
19:40that kind of figure mark by the time that we get to the end of the season. But nonetheless,
19:45it has been slightly drier than average, which I think will surprise many of us. Obviously,
19:49we have had some wet weather events, even just this gone weekend on Sunday across parts
19:54of South Wales, there was some very heavy rain. And that led to some severe flooding
19:59in places. And we had storm air wind, which had some heavy rain associated with it. And
20:05earlier in the winter, we had some very wet spells. And I think that just goes to illustrate
20:09that even in a drier than average season, there will be wet spells, impactful wet weather.
20:16And so when we talk about our three-month outlooks, which I'll come on to in a second for
20:20spring, when we talk about, you know, we're saying it's more likely to be drier than wetter
20:25than average, that doesn't mean that we're saying there won't be any severe wet weather,
20:29not at all. What it means is just as a whole, when you look back on the season,
20:33drier than average. Anyway, so yeah, slightly drier than average. But the greater or more
20:39significant percentage comes when we look at our sunshine amounts. And actually, we've only
20:45had around 81% of our average winter's sunshine so far this season. Now, we do have a couple of
20:52quite sunny days ahead. Obviously, today's pretty sunny. We don't have the data for today. And
20:59we've also got, well, Thursday, Friday, decent amount of sunshine on both those days. So I think
21:04the percentage actually of sunshine will go up a little bit. But it's still likely to be quite a
21:09bit cloudier than average when we look at winter as a whole. And I think that's given the whole
21:14field of things. It's been pretty gray. And I think everyone's felt that through, well,
21:20the last couple of months. And so that's why with some decent spring sunshine around through the
21:25next week or so, many people will be a bit grateful for that, for the change to something
21:30a bit brighter. Right. But speaking of seasonal outlooks, and our three-month outlook has just
21:39gone live on our website if you want to check it out. This is the one-month outlook. So this is the
21:44outlook for March. And the main thing that it highlights is that there's a higher chance than
21:51normal of it being slightly milder than average, or that it being milder than average,
21:56a slightly higher chance of it being wetter, and a slightly higher chance of it being windy.
22:01So that goes with the idea that we're going to see some wet and windy weather coming through
22:07as we go through, well, March. But if we compare this to what we can expect through the whole of
22:13spring, so March, April, May, and the statistics are slightly different. Still going with the idea
22:18of being warmer, so more likely to be warmer than cooler than average. But actually, if we look at
22:24the rainfall, the three-month period as a whole, more likely to be drier than wetter. And so really,
22:32I think it's during the first part of spring that we're most likely to have some wetter,
22:36because if we look at the winds, actually, it's about an equal percentage chance of it being
22:42calmer or windier than average, very, very close. So the wetter, windier weather is most likely
22:48during the beginning of spring, more so March, than towards the end at the moment. And that goes
22:55in line when we come up with these three-month outlooks, our contingency planning forecasts.
23:01There are lots of things that we look at, all the teleconnections going on around the world. So
23:06a couple of things. Obviously, there's La Nina in the tropical Pacific, and that's led to an
23:13increased chance of a positive NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation, which then increases the chance of
23:19some westerly winds during the first part of spring, which goes in line with the more unsettled,
23:24wetter, windier weather coming in from the west. And I won't get the chart back up, but that goes
23:29in line with low pressure towards the north and high pressure towards the south goes in line with
23:34the idea of a westerly wind coming through. So that is all in agreement, really, the forecast
23:40with these outlooks for what we can expect as we go through at least the beginning part of spring.
23:45Other things that we look at, obviously, there's the stronger-than-usual stratospheric polar vortex
23:57also leads to a greater chance of seeing westerly winds during the first part of spring. And so there
24:04are a couple of things on offer as well. So there are just a few things that we've looked at. So
24:10that's why I think as a whole, spring is likely to be, well, we're suggesting slightly drier is more
24:17likely than slightly wetter, but to be honest, near average is the most normal. Warmer than average is
24:23more likely, but worth bearing in mind that there is a climate change element to this. And so warmer
24:28than average, you would expect it to be slightly warmer than average based on what's happened in
24:32the past because of our warming climate. And as a whole, whether or not it's windier than average,
24:37well, it looks like near average most likely. But just to begin with, to the start of the period,
24:42wetter and windier is more likely during March. Always worth bearing in mind, whilst I've said
24:47warmer is most likely, that doesn't rule out any colder spells. We could still have some
24:52wintry hazards as we go through March. There could be some colder spells. They're just slightly less
24:57likely, and they're less likely to be the main feature when we look at March and also spring
25:02as a whole. And there will be some settled dry weather through March, and there will be some
25:08dry settled spells as we go deeper into spring. I think they'll become more likely as we go deeper
25:13into April and May. So perhaps something to look forward to, depending on what you like weather-wise.
25:20Now, OK, moving away from weather now for the last few bits of this deep dive, and we've
25:27talked about it quite a lot, I think, over recent weeks. And so far this year, there's been the
25:32opportunity to view several of the planets in the sky in something called a planetary parade,
25:37because all the orbits are lining up to make it able to view them in the sky. But as we go through
25:43this week, there's actually a chance to view all seven of them, because Mercury is joining the
25:48party. And it's worth bearing in mind a few things, that actually Mercury and Saturn are going to be
25:54pretty low to the horizon. And particularly, well, yeah, both Mercury and Saturn, they're only really
25:59going to be visible for a few minutes after the sun has dropped below the horizon, so after sunset.
26:05And so they're going to be quite tricky to see. So actually, the chances of being able to see all
26:11seven planets simultaneously is relatively slim, but it's not out of the question. So do try and
26:17head out through the evenings this week if you're interested in viewing this, because you may get to
26:21see all seven planets. Jupiter, Venus, Jupiter and Venus will probably be the easiest to see.
26:29Mars should be relatively easy to see. Uranus, you may be able to see with the naked eye, but
26:34you probably need some strong binoculars or perhaps a telescope. And also for Neptune,
26:38you probably need a telescope as well. And like I said, Mercury, because they're going to dip below
26:42the horizon quite quickly, less chance of seeing those. Also worth bearing in mind, even once the
26:47sun set during that twilight period, there's still some light around, so that will make it
26:51even harder to see Mercury and Saturn. But some advice if you're going out trying to look at it.
26:55So it's the evenings that you have the greatest chance of seeing all seven. Give yourself some
27:01time for your eyes to adjust. So go outside and allow your eyes to adjust to the light for a good
27:06like 20, 30 minutes or so. Try to get away from artificial light, and that will help you, well,
27:12really have a good chance of seeing it. If you are able to go out and view it, take any photos,
27:17perhaps do share them with us as we would like to see them. But I thought it would be worthwhile
27:22looking at the weather through the evenings to gauge whether or not, actually, let's get up the
27:27full view, to gauge whether or not you have a good chance of seeing it. Because actually,
27:33the weather's fairly favourable. And if we have the next few, that's not what I wanted to show.
27:39Um, it's okay, we'll go for this view. So through Tuesday evening, through this evening, there's a
27:44scattering of showers around. So obviously, if you're under a shower, a cloudier spell, not so
27:48great, but many places having some clear skies, so not too bad at all. If we dart ahead to Wednesday
27:55evening, a bit cloudier because of the system that's pushed through. But nonetheless, northern
28:00Scotland, some parts of Wales, southwest England, maybe the northeast having some clear skies. So
28:04not terrible view for quite a few places. Through Thursday evening, by now that system will have
28:11well and truly cleared. And so actually, many places through Thursday evening, having a good
28:16chance of seeing some decent clear skies. Then also through Friday evening, which I think is
28:21when we have the greatest chance of seeing Mercury, even if only for a short period of time,
28:26actually largely clear skies across the bulk of England and Wales, a bit of cloud here and there.
28:31Cloudier across Scotland and Northern Ireland, so not a great evening there. But actually,
28:36for much of England and Wales, actually some decent clear skies. So actually through
28:40much of this week, the next few nights, chances of seeing it, if that's something you're interested
28:45in and aiming to go out through an evening, it's not looking too bad. There are definitely
28:49some clear breaks, some opportunities to see perhaps all seven planets at once.
28:56Now, speaking of space and not strictly weather related, but I thought I'd end with some good
29:02news. And you've no doubt heard about the asteroid that NASA had been talking about,
29:06bringing the potential of impacting the Earth as we head towards what it was 2032, around December
29:132032, that they were suggesting that it's going to come near the Earth. And well, fortunately,
29:19the percentage, the probability, the chance of it actually hitting the Earth has now decreased.
29:24But if we run through the timeline, and on the 31st of January, NASA was saying the impact
29:29probability was around 1.6%. Now, apologies, this graphic is a little unclear. But in the centre,
29:36we have Earth, and the circle around it is the orbit that the Moon's taking. And then this line
29:41is the position uncertainty as the asteroid comes towards or close to the Earth. And so you can see
29:49it's quite uncertain. But as we went through, well, the last week or so, by the 10th of February,
29:57NASA had increased the chance of it impacting Earth up to 2.1%. And then by the 18th of February,
30:05the chance has gone up to 3.1%. Now, they did also stress that even if it did impact the Earth,
30:11the chance of it causing anything major was actually quite small, it probably wouldn't cause
30:16too many issues. But nonetheless, this was, from my point of view, quite an alarmingly high
30:21percentage. But fortunately, it then did drop down. By the 19th, it dropped down to 1.5%. By
30:27the 20th, it was only 0.3%. And then on Sunday, they dropped it even further to 0.004%, which,
30:35from my point of view, is much more comfortable. Now, this was many years away, 2032, and now the
30:41percentages dropped down. So Ben Affleck, Bruce Willis, you can step down. It doesn't look like
30:46it's going to hit the Earth. That being said, they're saying it's slightly less than 2% chance
30:52that it could actually hit the Moon currently. So that's still something to watch out for.
30:57But otherwise, I thought I'd end with some relatively good news. Thank you so much for
31:02watching this deep dive. Like I said at the start, if you have any questions or comments,
31:08do leave them, especially if you're watching this on YouTube. I will be answering some of
31:12the comments straight away. But we also like to answer any questions in our Weather Studio Live,
31:18which is available on our YouTube channel at 12.15 every Friday. It will be honoring me again
31:23this week. So I'll be answering some of your questions that you put in the comments on this
31:28deep dive on YouTube. And like I said at the start, also hit the Like button, hit the Share button,
31:34make as many people aware as possible that we do these deep dives to try and get the message
31:39across. The other thing that I would be interested in knowing is how many of these deep dives have
31:44you watched before? Is this the first deep dive you've watched? Have you watched a few before?
31:49Or maybe are you in the 100 Club? Have you watched more than 100 deep dives, whether they've been
31:54presented by myself, by Anna, by Aidan, by the other Alex, or perhaps even Annie? Do let us
32:00know in the comments, because I think it would be quite interesting to know how many of these
32:04deep dives people have watched. Otherwise, well, Anna will be back on Wednesday with the 10-day
32:09trend. Like I said, I will be updating the 14-day outlook available on our app. And also, Anna and
32:15I will be back on Friday for our Weather Studio Live, available on YouTube at 12.15. But whatever
32:21you're up to through the rest of winter and into spring, I do hope you have a great one. Bye-bye.