Bulan suci Ramadan dan Hari Raya Idul Fitri selalu menjadi momentum bagi semua sektor usaha di Tanah Air untuk mendulang cuan lebih banyak, bahkan pertumbuhan penjualan selama bulan puasa dan Lebaran diprediksi bisa mencapai dua kali lipat untuk sektor ritel dibadingkan dengan bulan biasanya.
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00:00Let's go to the next segment.
00:21Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:23Live from my IDX Channel Jakarta, I'm Prasetya Wibowo
00:26Welcome back to Market Review, a program that discusses issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia
00:32You can also watch our live streaming at IDXChannel.com
00:35Let's start the Market Review
00:40Market Review
00:48Yes, the holy month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr
00:51has always been a momentum for all business sectors in the country
00:54to invest more
00:56Even sales growth during fasting and Eid
00:59is predicted to double
01:02for the retail sector compared to the usual month
01:10The momentum of the holy month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr
01:13is usually identical to the increase in the consumption of significant communities
01:18Although the economic condition of the community is currently under pressure
01:22there is often a decrease in middle class and purchasing power
01:25but it does not discourage people's interest in shopping
01:29Especially at this time, it is always colored with the ritual activity of the year, which is Eid al-Fitr
01:34The RedSeer Strategy Consultant report, as quoted by the media,
01:38mentions the total shopping of Indonesian people
01:41During the month of Ramadan 2025, it is estimated to reach 73 billion US dollars
01:46or equivalent to 1,188 trillion rupiah
01:50There are also young people in urban areas who will be the most enthusiastic group
01:55and can be the largest consumer in various shopping sectors
02:00On the other hand, the Indonesian Retail Entrepreneur Association or APRINDO
02:04projected that the growth of retail sales in Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr this time
02:10can increase by up to 2 times compared to the usual months
02:14If the average monthly growth is 8-9%
02:18then during fasting and Eid can be above 16-20%
02:24In addition, entrepreneurs have also made preparations and projections for the provision of goods
02:30to ensure and guarantee the availability of various needs
02:34such as consumer goods and other basic needs
02:37Meanwhile, the Indonesian Republic Police predicted that
02:41the public movement on the implementation of Eid al-Fitr
02:45is predicted to reach more than 100 million people or voters
02:50The movement of voters is expected to start on 28-30 March 2025
03:00From Jakarta, IDX Channel
03:09To discuss our topic this time, the retail sector is optimistic about Ramadan
03:13and Eid al-Fitr 2025, we have been connected via Zoom
03:16together with Mr. Roy Nicholas Mande
03:19who is the Chairman of Aviation Global Retail Association
03:22Hello Mr. Roy, how are you?
03:24How are you? Greetings, Mr. Bas
03:27Greetings, Mr. Roy. Thank you for the opportunity
03:31First of all, how is the condition until the second month of 2025 from the retail sector in your opinion, Mr. Roy?
03:39Yes, we know that
03:41when I say 2024 is a challenging year
03:47But this year, I call it a challenging year
03:52still full of challenges, but plus anomalies
03:56So, the year of the challenging and anomalies
03:59Why do I say that?
04:01On the paper, our outlook economy is still 5%
04:08I speak in a macro way first
04:10where we know that
04:135.03% is a bit lower than the previous year
04:18in 2023-2024, we closed at 5.03%
04:21full year
04:22it means that there is an economic delay there
04:25but in aggregate, we know that inflation is still maintained
04:30with significant conditions, still less than below 3%
04:35then secondly, our PMI
04:38even though it goes up and down, the fluctuation is high
04:41but it can still go on
04:43even though we know that there is a term called deindustrialization
04:48from the manufacturing side
04:50then, that's the side that is still good
04:55the trade balance is still surplus
04:57and we also know that the flow rate is lower now because the SBI is lowered
05:04and also in aggregate, our trade balance is still good
05:09but we see that
05:11it turns out that deindustrialization has an impact on the lower middle class
05:16with the existence of victims of PHK or our brothers and sisters who have to go to PHK
05:20almost around, now it's almost 80,000, even less
05:24and also mid-level who have not returned
05:27so at the lower middle class level
05:32it still suffers for its spending, for its consumption
05:36we see, of course, this does not mean that there is no one who spends
05:41because we know that Ramadan is the peak of spending from the Indonesian people
05:46to celebrate Ramadan, the holy month of Ramadan
05:49together with the family, and also Eid al-Fitr
05:54we still see there is a good gap there
05:58because for the lower middle class
06:01they have to be paid by the government
06:06they have to be concerned about them
06:08but the upper middle class
06:10of course they will still spend
06:12because they have saved their savings, their salary
06:15then they will spend it, especially we know that there is a monthly salary of 13
06:19in Indonesia, every month of the 13th, the monthly salary of the 13th must be spent
06:25it must be spent, the monthly salary of the 13th
06:29even this year, it is estimated that the increase is almost 1 million
06:34who are moving from city to city
06:39it will be more or less 1 million nationally
06:42so they will definitely spend it
06:45they will also spend it while traveling
06:50and there is also a planning that we will drink for 12 days
06:55before 12 days, they will work in the field village
07:01there is that term
07:02which will of course be given the opportunity to travel earlier
07:06but still work in the field village
07:08this will also make them spend
07:12we see that for those who are still suffering
07:17with those who will still spend
07:21this is the comparison with the current condition that we see
07:25it's still 50-50
07:28still one side that suffers
07:31still have to be paid attention to
07:33so that the purchasing power is maintained
07:35but also the upper middle class
07:37they will also spend money in the holy month of Ramadan
07:40but if you look at the current condition
07:44Ramadan only counts days
07:45can this be a booster
07:47and how far does this retail sector put hope
07:51for the momentum of Ramadan and Eid this year, Pak Roy?
07:55yes, so if Ramadan is already cyclical
07:58cyclical in various sectors
08:00I call the retail sector
08:02there will definitely be an increase
08:04usually between 1.5 to 2 times
08:07it's true for those who have prepared spending for Ramadan
08:12then there is another sector, the tourism sector will definitely increase
08:16then there is another sector, the transportation sector will definitely increase
08:20of course, we know that those who go home to the village or to the city
08:25mudik and so on will definitely use the transportation sector
08:28so in various sectors, there is definitely no situation
08:37even if the condition is neutral, it will definitely increase
08:40now the question remains
08:43whether the current condition is very conducive or not
08:46this is what we need to pay attention to
08:48that we know
08:51our society, our social economic status
08:54if we use the pyramid
08:56above 30-35%
08:59approaching 40% is the lower sector
09:02and they are added with the mid-level
09:06the mid-level is almost the same
09:08if the lower one is around 35-40%
09:10the mid-level is around 25-30%
09:14and the rest is not a problem in terms of spending money
09:18now this is within our pyramid
09:20the middle and the bottom
09:22the bottom must still be helped
09:24in the middle, the volatility and fluctuation are very high
09:28the ups and downs are very high
09:30because some are looking for a job
09:32some are starting a business
09:34and so on
09:36and of course they spend money
09:39but not as much as the upper level
09:42the social economic status B plus or A
09:45so this
09:47we still expect government support
09:49for example, the supply of goods
09:51this must be certain
09:53don't let the goods have less supply
09:56so that the price goes up
09:58of course it will suppress in the transaction
10:00reduce for the people to make transactions
10:03then price stability
10:04earlier we talked about the supply of goods
10:06which will be the source of price stability
10:09this is also very important
10:11how the market operation
10:14then also how
10:16all movements of the regional government
10:19to monitor the price stability
10:21this becomes dominant
10:23on increasing consumption
10:25in the holy month of Ramadan through retail
10:28yes, interesting
10:29if we look at it, the government will also implement
10:31the work from anywhere policy
10:33yes, correct
11:03from January to December
11:05yes, as you can see
11:07on your television screen
11:09the movement in the last few months
11:11in 2024
11:13actually there is a tendency to experience an increase
11:15from October 121.1
11:17then 125.9
11:19and finally at 127.7
11:21consumer confidence index
11:23in 2024
11:25let's continue again
11:26discussion with Mr. Roy Nicholas Mane
11:28Mr. Roy, if we look at the data
11:30that has been delivered
11:32consumer confidence index
11:34tends to rise in the last few months
11:36according to you, will the trend continue
11:38in 2025?
11:40yes, of course
11:42the number 127 or above 100
11:45does not reflect
11:48a reflection of
11:50good enough consumer confidence
11:53because it is above the moderate number
11:55so 127 or the previous one
11:57125 between plus or minus
11:59those points
12:01means
12:03the consumer's spirit to shop
12:05or the consumer's confidence
12:07to see the economic situation
12:10then also politics
12:12then also
12:13how they plan
12:15to spend on Ramadan
12:17that of course is good
12:20but again
12:22what we are worried about
12:24is the middle to bottom
12:26because we also
12:28provide goods that
12:30are very cheap
12:32in retail
12:34we make more affordable
12:36packaging
12:38for example working with a producer
12:40then the promotions also increase
12:43usually in Ramadan
12:45the promotion program or inventory
12:47has been prepared 6 months in advance
12:49so we are all ready
12:51to do that
12:52but the condition
12:54we know that those who shop a lot
12:56are actually in the middle
12:58middle to bottom
13:00the middle to
13:02our brothers and sisters
13:04who are still in
13:06there is no job
13:08or there is a job in the PHK
13:10the mid-level is down because
13:12also the inability to
13:14absorb new labor
13:16this is what needs to be thought about
13:18means they contribute a lot
13:20the mid-level contributes
13:22almost around 55-60%
13:25but the condition
13:27in Ramadan now
13:29of course it's a bit different
13:31this is what needs to be taken care of
13:33how the availability of goods
13:35which is capable of stable price
13:37which is capable
13:39it becomes the logo
13:41for this consumer confidence
13:43for spending money
13:45it's not just trust
13:47but also have the ability to spend money
13:49because it is helped and also given
13:51subsidy
13:53sorry, I was interrupted
13:55a question related to the WFA policy
13:57what do you think?
13:58will this have an impact
13:59related to the retail sector?
14:01and it means
14:02the top of the money
14:03the government, especially the Ministry of Transportation
14:05has predicted
14:07there are two if the WFA is implemented
14:09yes, that's right
14:11so if the cycle in
14:13people's shopping in Ramadan
14:15two weeks before
14:17the first two weeks
14:19those who shop
14:21will be reduced by 20-25%
14:23then
14:25after the first two weeks
14:27it increases again
14:29increases around
14:3130-35%
14:33and the rest is usually
14:35one week before
14:37Ramadan
14:38because one week before
14:39it has been accepted by the Ministry of Transportation
14:41so the condition of the WFA
14:43work from anywhere
14:45working, given the opportunity
14:47so that not everyone is idle
14:49there are times
14:503-4 days before Eid
14:52so the traffic jam is amazing
14:54even causing casualties
14:56and so on, this has been evaluated
14:58by the government
14:59so 12 days before
15:01WFA
15:02now this
15:03of course it's the same
15:05necessarily with them
15:07WFA
15:08they still shop, right?
15:09in the area, right?
15:10they still celebrate
15:12Eid or
15:14Eid al-Fitr
15:15so
15:16this is the role of the area
15:18when the WFA is also carried out
15:20and approved
15:22as a decision
15:24the area must be ready
15:25the goods in the area
15:27the availability of goods
15:29which is capable
15:31and also the patience must be ready
15:33because they will shop
15:35so with this WFA
15:37actually doesn't affect
15:39whether it increases consumption or not
15:41but more to how
15:43so that the community is more efficient
15:45actually
15:46rather than the traffic jam
15:48then finally
15:50if using transportation
15:52the cost of gasoline
15:54or something bigger
15:56this can be allocated for them
15:58consumption
16:00so it's like that
16:02talking about the availability of stock
16:04as a retail product
16:05as long as it is in the community
16:06remember, it means not only in big cities
16:08even in areas that are the destination of traffic
16:10the community must be ready
16:12then the price as you said
16:14must be stable
16:16how is it now?
16:18is it really guaranteed?
16:20because this is a annual ritual
16:22it's been prepared
16:24maybe from the beginning of the year or how?
16:26yes, in general
16:28in the retail world
16:30there are goods that we call
16:32controllable and uncontrollable
16:34if the controllable
16:36is what we have prepared
16:38three to six months ago
16:40even working with
16:42manufacturers, manufacturers, producers
16:44then we make new products
16:46or new packaging
16:48new content, content
16:50and more affordable
16:52and so on, that's controllable
16:54but there are products that are uncontrollable
16:56which is the main material
16:58the main material is important
17:00this is what sometimes
17:02for example, we talk about this
17:04a few days, one or two days
17:06the chili is increasing
17:08want to fast on the first day
17:10for example, if it is fixed
17:12now automatically
17:14with the increase in price
17:16it means that it affects people's spending
17:18must be reduced
17:20because the availability of goods
17:22is limited because
17:24weather factors
17:26then also for example
17:28this is the most important
17:30we talk about rice
17:32this rice is expected not to be imported
17:34but this must have
17:36must have CBP
17:38a supply of rice
17:40the government always says that
17:42the CBP must be maintained
17:44don't just
17:46we believe that this will be enough
17:48but if there is a jump
17:50of course there must be a way out
17:52how to
17:54so that there is a backup
17:56this is of course also an important part
17:58so there are things
18:00that we can't control, that's what we hope
18:02the government is stubborn
18:04and also follows
18:06the previous year
18:08it must be like that
18:10so that this condition
18:12does not repeat
18:14we know that there is a commodity crisis
18:16but this commodity crisis is when the condition is stable
18:18no
18:20problem in harvesting
18:22no problem
18:24in the weather and so on
18:26this must be
18:28maintained
18:30in this way
18:32and this is not the work of one ministry
18:34but all ministries
18:36that are currently in the government
19:04Global Retail Association
19:06Mr. Roy, if we talk about retail sales
19:08it's already quite even
19:10not the current stock
19:12then the uncontrolled label food
19:14or the main material
19:16how is this, if I remember
19:18so that the price is not
19:20slowly rising even though you said earlier
19:22the price of chili has started to rise
19:24so if
19:26we talk about Indonesia
19:28it's quite wide, of course we know
19:30the distribution
19:32has certainly been tried
19:34there are ministries and institutions
19:36that specifically think about the distribution
19:38but again
19:40this condition
19:42there are other problems
19:44other than productivity
19:46then logistics
19:48this logistics is usually
19:50during this Eid
19:52employees working for
19:54transportation
19:56of course they also want
19:58extra income
20:00if the company does not provide extra income
20:02then the logistic condition
20:04will definitely increase because the employees
20:06may not be significant
20:08or the payers and so on
20:10then there are also other
20:12problems related to
20:14the condition, for example
20:16it happens
20:18suddenly the weather is not good and so on
20:20so that the harvest is also affected
20:22which is not predicted
20:24these conditions
20:26can still happen
20:28because we do
20:30hope that the future strength
20:32is actually the strength in the inventory
20:34our strength is actually a lot of
20:36warehouses, many ministries and institutions
20:38have a lot of warehouses but
20:40we haven't seen it yet
20:42utilized, how to
20:44three months before Ramadan, everything
20:46for example is already in warehouses in every
20:48area, there are many ministries and institutions
20:50that have warehouses
20:52inventory problems are often
20:54not thought of, but the problem
20:56how to fill
20:58the inventory
21:00that is what is thought of
21:02in the future it must be thought of
21:04because transportation
21:06we talk about Indonesia, right?
21:08transportation takes time
21:10when there is a shock
21:12to one item, just a piece of wood
21:14the delivery can be done on Eid
21:16just arrived and so on
21:18so this is a classic thing
21:20actually and there are still many ways
21:22to involve entrepreneurs
21:24involve entrepreneurs
21:26because it is an entrepreneur who does
21:28on-field, we really understand
21:30or see these situations
21:32if the controllable goods
21:34we believe it has entered our distribution center
21:36in every area
21:38and we also
21:40many programs that we work with
21:42areas to celebrate Ramadan
21:44Sembako Mura, then also
21:46not only Sembako, but also products
21:48that we can control
21:50in the amount we
21:52make in one package, sold
21:54with affordable funds, we also do a lot
21:56usually on this Ramadan
21:58the spirit is one
22:00so that the peak
22:02the result of retail is in
22:04this Ramadan
22:06about 60%
22:08of the offset
22:10we get 55-60%
22:12on Eid or Ramadan
22:14especially now Ramadan
22:16is advanced, so this year
22:18to enter
22:20the next season is quite long
22:22so definitely
22:24there will be
22:26weaknesses
22:28more significant than last year
22:30so we all
22:32work hard to
22:34contribute good productivity
22:36and ultimately to maintain consumption
22:38so that it is not
22:40not
22:42but still minimal
22:44the same or above, although
22:46not significant, above last year
22:48How big is the potential
22:50of sales?
22:52Can you predict the sales of retail products
22:54in this momentum?
22:56Usually on Ramadan
22:58because the population also increases
23:00every year the movement of the people also changes
23:02every time
23:04usually we increase
23:06about 15-20%
23:08from the previous month
23:10from the previous months
23:12so there is an increase
23:14that is the net
23:16the net, the controllable
23:18and uncontrollable goods are less like that
23:20and
23:22we are optimistic to see the situation
23:24that the government
23:26also conveys the situation
23:28the economy is maintained
23:30but the deindustrialization
23:32is what makes
23:34we are a bit
23:36labile at the bottom
23:38so
23:40why did I mention this year
23:42challenging and anomalous
23:44our economy is good, but our tax ratio
23:46is down
23:48our tax ratio must also increase
23:50this condition means
23:52there is something missing
23:54or there is something missing
23:56so this is not in line with economic growth
23:58this is from the other side
24:00there are good things, but there is a crucial side
24:02that must still be maintained
24:04so that we are not deindustrialized
24:06this is to the politicians
24:08predict from the movement of the people
24:10on Eid al-Adha this year, more or less
24:12100 million people will do the movement
24:14at the time of the eid al-Adha
24:16from the 28th to 30th of March
24:18what will really contribute
24:20related to the number of sales
24:22that you just said
24:24yes, that's right
24:26so the movement of the people
24:28from city to city
24:30must be accompanied by their spending
24:32to move from one city to another
24:34and also
24:36buy
24:38goods and so on
24:40for their destination
24:42this is of course
24:44an interesting thing
24:46but sometimes
24:48because the movement is getting bigger
24:50from last year, this is increasing again
24:52there are
24:54people's conditions
24:56people's level
24:58which of course
25:00prioritizes transportation
25:02to their destination
25:04to their destination
25:06in their hometown is more important than
25:08there is no spending, there is also
25:10the people's level
25:12so that's it, reduce spending
25:14or by reducing
25:16the important thing is that we can travel
25:18the important thing is that we can take the train
25:20we take the bus, take the ambulance
25:22or take a private car and so on
25:24but that releases gasoline
25:26which also
25:28on the one hand
25:30that they have a group of people who will
25:32spend during the trip and also
25:34by that, but on the other hand
25:36there are people who also reduce spending
25:38because it fits
25:40how can this be seen
25:42later we will see
25:44in the evaluation in the next month
25:46how is the transaction in this month
25:48that's what's happening now
25:50we will see what it will be like
25:52how the implementation of Muhrik Lebaran
25:54then how the consumption of the community
25:56as expected
25:58momentum once a year
26:00Ramadan and Eid can push
26:02the retail sector in Indonesia
26:04thank you very much for the information update
26:06and analysis that you also conveyed
26:08to the audience today
26:10continue your activities again, good health
26:12thank you