This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. From high pressure to the south to high pressure to the north, the UK's weather patterns will flip during the next few days and then become stuck in a rut. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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00:00High pressure to the south, low pressure to the north during the next few days.
00:04But by the weekend, that weather pattern will flip on its head and become stuck in a rut throughout next week.
00:11Are we seeing a return to more prolonged areas of high pressure following less of that sort of thing last year?
00:19I've done some statistical analysis, so you'll want to stick around in this week's Deep Dive to find out the results of that.
00:27I'll have it covered. This is an in-depth look at the weather across the UK and beyond.
00:31I'm going to be talking about the weather patterns over the next few days into next week and, in fact, for the rest of March.
00:36We do these every Tuesday. They are on our Met Office YouTube channel.
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01:17Now, before I get stuck into the forecast, let's take a look back because many of you in the south, at least, will be enjoying some much needed sunshine.
01:27And it is much needed when you look at the totals for the winter.
01:32This is the sunshine anomaly through the past winter that we've just experienced.
01:39And you can see the grey colours there, most significant across the south, but certainly extending into northern England, parts of central and eastern Scotland as well.
01:46So significantly below average amounts of sunshine in these areas.
01:50There were some sunnier spots through the Midlands, mid Wales.
01:53But most notably, northwest Scotland has enjoyed the most sunshine compared with average through the previous winter.
02:01Whereas it's the south where we've seen the darkest greys.
02:04That has turned on its head. We're now seeing the sunniest weather ever since the start of March across southern parts of the UK.
02:12Now, this may particularly stand out for you if you're living in the south.
02:17That's where a lot of people do live, in fact, because it has been notably less sunny compared with recent winters.
02:25This is a graph showing the amount of sunshine across the UK back to beyond before 1920.
02:33And what it shows is that the winters since the year 2000 have been particularly sunny.
02:39Quite a few well above average sunny winters since the year 2000.
02:44Here's the average line, this light blue. That's the 1991 to 2020 average.
02:50It's worth pointing out. And this darker line here, that's the most recent winter.
02:54So that's winter 2025, the sunshine total.
02:59So sunshine amounts this past winter 94% of the 91 to 2020 average.
03:07And we've seen quite a few winters since 2000 above that average line.
03:14But when you go further back, you'll see quite a lot of winters through the 20s, the 30s and the 40s were below this dark line, which, as I mentioned, is the most recent winter.
03:25So actually, if you compare the winter we've just had with the 20s, 30s, 40s, even into the 50s, it was considerably sunnier than most of those winters.
03:37But it was more dull than most of the winters since the year 2000.
03:42So there's been this marked increase over the decades in sunshine amounts across the UK.
03:49Certainly a big pickup around the 40s and 50s and then a bit of a lull.
03:54And then again, another increase around the 90s up to the 2000s.
03:58So I thought that was interesting to point out. Yes, it's been notably dull in the south in particular this winter.
04:04When you compare it with winters of the early 20th century, actually, it wasn't that dull.
04:10So it's interesting how those winter sunshine amounts have changed through time.
04:15Now, with the sunshine in the south, of course, we've seen some interesting meteorological phenomena during recent days.
04:22And one of them is a greater incidence of frost compared with much of the winter.
04:29And I'm just going to take a look at the temperature trend across some southern parts of the UK at the moment.
04:36If I run my mouse, mouse, pen, run my pen along the bottom of the screen here, southern parts of England.
04:43And you'll see this big variation between overnight temperatures.
04:47That was this morning across part of southern England, near Southampton.
04:52And then this increase by day as the sun comes out and then a decrease again by night.
04:57And this big variation from overnight temperatures to daytime temperatures, that's known as the diurnal range.
05:03And it's at this time of year that actually we get this big, notable diurnal range because the air and the ground and the sea are still relatively cold.
05:11So as soon as the sun goes down at night and at the moment we're seeing some fog patches as well across southern parts,
05:17we see a big drop off in temperatures because the ground and the air are still relatively cold.
05:22But by day, you've got a strengthening sun, which at the moment is about as strong as it is in the first half of October.
05:30And as a result, the air quickly warms up during the day once you lose the fog in the south.
05:36Now, we saw some interesting variations across the country as well this morning.
05:41So Tuesday morning, the lowest temperature in the country in the morning was Benson in Oxfordshire.
05:47Minus six point one Celsius. So quite a sharp frost there.
05:51But Tyree, Western Scotland, beautiful island, temperature dipped to eight point eight, positive eight point eight.
05:58And it's not likely to rise much through the rest of the day because there's not much of a diurnal range in the north.
06:05Watch this as I move my pen from the south and the north, you'll see the graph progressively get flatter.
06:13So the daytime temperatures get lower and the overnight temperatures get higher.
06:18By the time we get to Tyree, well, it's just a constant eight to 10 degrees or even further north into northern Scotland.
06:27Again, it's virtually flat that graph in terms of the variation over 48 hours.
06:34What's the difference between the south and the north? Well, in the north, it's basically a lot windier.
06:39So that helps to stir the air up. It's a lot cloudier.
06:43So that prevents the strong sunshine from coming through during the day.
06:46So you don't get the sunshine providing the warmth in the afternoons.
06:50But at the same time overnight, the air is mixed enough to prevent the air from cooling to frosty conditions and fog as well.
06:58No fog or at least what we call radiation fog across northern parts of the UK.
07:03That's the type of fog that forms when the skies are clear and the air cools down overnight.
07:07But we are seeing it in the south. And Tuesday night, we're likely to see an increased chance of fog across southern parts of the UK.
07:17This shows a slice of southern UK and it's a three hourly progression here from midnight to 3 a.m., 6 a.m. and 9 a.m.
07:29And what you're seeing here is the probability of fog forming.
07:32So the brighter the colours on this chart, the more likely the fog will happen.
07:37And this is taking ensemble data from the Met Office. So where the Met Office run its supercomputer lots and lots of times.
07:44And what it's showing is, yeah, there's some patches coming through already by midnight, but increasingly likely there by 3 a.m.
07:51Some dense fog forming southern counties of England in particular, but also across parts of Wales and the Midlands.
07:57And the greatest threat likelihood of fog is six in the morning.
08:03It then starts to clear up, I suspect, 9, 10 a.m. That's when it's going to be lifting.
08:08So, yes, some dense fog around first thing Wednesday.
08:12Take care if you're travelling first thing, because particularly south of the M4, by the looks of it, that's where you're most likely to get some dense fog around.
08:21But, as I say, it's a very different picture further north.
08:26Now, this is the chart at the time of recording, 2 p.m. Tuesday.
08:31We've got a very active jet stream producing some deep lows into Iceland and some very windy weather across Iceland with outbreaks of rain.
08:40Another low joining in here during the next 24 hours or so.
08:44And all of these lows, although they're avoiding the U.K., they are tightening up the ISA bars across northern parts of the country.
08:52Hence the stronger winds. And they're also dangling some weather fronts in.
08:56And, in fact, this is a relatively moist airflow coming into western Scotland and certainly for higher parts of western Scotland in this kind of setup.
09:05We've got some moisture. We've got some warmth coming in from the southwest of the U.K.
09:10And that's leading to some persistent outbreaks of rain in this area.
09:15So, yeah, very different story for northern Scotland compared with southern England.
09:19Real contrasts across the U.K.
09:21Let's take a look at the wind gusts.
09:24This basically shows a summary for the next few days.
09:26So the maximum wind gust expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
09:34It stays blustery on Thursday and Friday across the north and the west.
09:37But wind gusts are lower than 50 miles an hour.
09:40That's what these colors are showing up.
09:42Areas where you've got wind gusts in excess of 50 miles an hour.
09:45And then they go up in 10 mile per hour increments.
09:48So Tuesday is the windiest day.
09:50Tuesday afternoon, basically, around about now, where we're seeing peak wind gusts of 50 to 60 miles an hour across exposed parts of northern and northwest Scotland.
09:59Similar, a little bit of an easing overnight, but similar once again picking up through Wednesday morning, early afternoon.
10:0550 mile per hour wind gusts, perhaps 60 in one or two spots.
10:09Staying blustery, but not quite as windy across the north and the west through Thursday.
10:14And what you'll notice is that the arrows are starting to change direction.
10:18And in fact, we're seeing more arrows by this stage across southern areas.
10:22So that's going to lead to a change in conditions across the south through Thursday and Friday, which I'll go on to in just a moment.
10:30And to cover the rain as well, which is another factor of significance across northern Scotland.
10:36This shows the total amount of rain through Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
10:43It really highlights that Tuesday and Wednesday are dry virtually everywhere except for the northwest of Scotland, some parts of Northern Ireland.
10:52Likewise for Wednesday, a bit more rain coming into the central belt into southern Scotland at this stage.
10:59Most of England and Wales dry.
11:01And then we're seeing more of these colours spread across the UK on Thursday and into Friday.
11:06So a change in the weather on the way for later this week.
11:09In fact, think of the weather over the next few days as happening in three stages.
11:14So we've got the high to the south at the moment.
11:16We've got the sunny skies that are going to continue by day during Wednesday and Thursday across much of England and Wales.
11:25And we've also got those frosty and foggy mornings, Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.
11:30Then during Friday and Saturday, the weather patterns start to change.
11:37This is the transition period before becoming stuck in a completely flipped pattern for next week.
11:45So just to cover the change in the weather patterns later this week.
11:50What we're seeing at the moment, as I mentioned, high pressure to the south, low to the north and a relatively flat jet stream.
11:57But during this transition period, the jet stream out in the Atlantic, this big dip, that starts to come further east.
12:08And that really begins to amplify the whole weather pattern.
12:11And it's this amplification that leads to those big changes into next week and the weather patterns becoming stuck.
12:17But during the transition period, really, as we go into Thursday, what we're seeing is low pressure come closer to western parts of the UK.
12:30These weather fronts will peel away from the north of Scotland.
12:33So it will turn a little drier later Thursday as that happens.
12:36And southwesterly winds arrive across the whole of the UK.
12:40Now, initially, that's going to send warmer weather across the whole of the UK.
12:45So the jet stream is diving southwards out to the west of the UK.
12:50And we've got this plume of warmth arriving from the southwest.
12:54Tightly packed isobars across many parts of the UK.
12:57Not really tight, but it's going to be more breezy.
13:01And that breeze is coming from the southwest.
13:03So by Friday morning, we're losing the frost and fog in the south because of the increased breeze.
13:10We're also going to see higher temperatures by day across the whole of the UK, 15, 16 Celsius or so.
13:17A bit more on that in a moment.
13:19But at the same time, these weather fronts to the west will begin to move in.
13:24And as that happens, Friday, we'll see an increase in cloud and outbreaks of rain.
13:29So this is the transition phase through Friday and into the weekend as weather systems start to arrive from the west rather than pass well to the north of the country.
13:42What does that mean for our weather by Friday?
13:45Let's take a look.
13:48Actually, let's go back to Thursday. I don't think I've covered Thursday yet.
13:51So Thursday starts off with a little less frost and fog in the south, but still some patches about because the wind is picking up at this stage.
14:00By the afternoon, though, many parts of eastern Scotland, much of England, east Wales, beautiful spells of sunshine once again and feeling warm.
14:09Temperatures of 14, 15, 13 Celsius widely.
14:14It's entirely possible, which is what we've seen over the last few days, that the computer model here that's pulling in these temperatures is underestimating it.
14:21And it looks more likely that temperatures on Thursday afternoon will reach 15 or 16 Celsius.
14:26So feeling pleasantly warm.
14:29Eastern Scotland a little bit cooler compared with recent days, but still plenty of sunshine further west.
14:36That's where we're seeing the first signs of the change.
14:39We're seeing an increase in the cloud, an increase in the breeze, showery rain moving and just playing that forward.
14:46During Thursday night, you can see how it's through the night, basically, that the weather becomes more mixed across the whole of the UK.
14:52We've got showery bands, some heavy rain in places, particularly across Wales in the south and southwest of England.
15:00And by Friday morning, much of England and Wales very different.
15:04Cloudy skies, outbreaks of rain, heavy downpours in places, drier towards the southeast, not as much sunshine, not feeling quite as warm because of the increase in cloud,
15:13although it's still relatively mild air that's spreading across the UK.
15:17Scotland and Northern Ireland, meanwhile, again, a contrast compared with recent days.
15:21It's brighter skies, it's drier, albeit with a few showers coming into the northwest of Scotland.
15:26So that's Friday. And then going into the weekend, the theme really is mild.
15:34Yes, we've lost the frost and fog in the south. 5 a.m.
15:38Saturday, you can see temperatures mid to high single figures, even double figures in places.
15:43So it is mild, but we're also seeing a lot of cloud and some showers or not as many showers, not as much rain as Friday.
15:53And this is where phase three of the change in weather patterns starts to take place.
16:00So we've seen how the jet stream dives to the south out to the west of the UK.
16:06So this big elongated trough, that's what we call it, this trough in the jet stream.
16:11As that dive south, it becomes so elongated that it effectively cuts off into its own closed circulation.
16:19That's what we call a cut off low. And this low pressure to the southwest heading into the start of the weekend becomes stuck.
16:27So a flip compared with what we've got at the moment.
16:31Instead of high pressure to the south, we've got low pressure to the south.
16:34Instead of low pressure to the north, we've got a build of pressure, higher pressure to the north.
16:39And this kind of weather pattern is called a blocked pattern.
16:44It basically sets itself up with such an amplified, elongated jet stream that's become cut off to the south.
16:51When this occurs, it can get stuck for a long period of time.
16:54And that's what we're expecting into next week.
16:56What does that mean for our weather?
16:58Well, initially, the air that's coming up across the UK, although it kind of looks like it's coming from the east, is actually coming from the south.
17:05And it's actually relatively warmer at this point.
17:10So we start the weekend mild. Again, temperatures across the UK on Saturday into the mid-teens fairly widely.
17:17And as I mentioned, not as frosty and foggy in the morning.
17:20But within this warm sector, this mild plume, we'll also see some showers, particularly across some southern and southwestern parts of the UK.
17:32These showers are just going to be churned up by the low.
17:35But also, as this warm front clears the north of Scotland, a spell of rain moves north across the UK through Saturday and then clears on Sunday.
17:45So if I move that forward, you can see by Sunday, actually, the far north still affected by showery rain as that front's moving north.
17:54The far south and southwest under threat from some showers, hit and miss downpours.
18:00A lot of uncertainty about how much of this showery rain will move up from the low to the southwest.
18:06But in between, actually, a lot of fine weather, some sunny spells, not a huge amount of sunshine.
18:12I think there will be some cloud, but feeling pleasantly warm where we do get the sunshine because we're still in this relatively mild zone.
18:21But to the north, there's a cold high.
18:25And this is where it gets interesting into next week, because we've got this set up, a mild low that's sitting close to Iberia, bringing some very wet and windy weather, ruining Alex Deakin's golfing weekend in Portugal.
18:41And then we've got a cold high near Iceland.
18:44And there's likely to be a bit of a tussle through next week, which one will dominate the weather across the UK.
18:51Either way, that general set up is likely to persist.
18:56So in general terms, we're likely to see higher pressure to the north of the UK, lower pressure to the south and southwest.
19:03And that's what the dark red on this chart represents.
19:07So this is the most likely weather pattern for the next couple of weeks.
19:10And this is Saturday, the 8th of March here, Sunday, the 9th of March.
19:15And what you'll notice is that all of a sudden the weather patterns changed to these dark reds, which is high pressure to the north.
19:23But there are different flavours of high pressure to the north.
19:26There are different sub patterns.
19:28And they're highlighted here by the little black line that separates the different dark reds.
19:35And so if I click on them and show you what they look like.
19:40The most likely weather pattern for Saturday, the 8th of March is, as I mentioned, low pressure close to Iberia and high pressure near Iceland and this southeast of the airflow.
19:56And that's similar on Sunday and in fact into Monday as well.
20:00So this is the most likely weather pattern.
20:03Showery rain, perhaps for the south and southwest. Increasingly dry elsewhere.
20:08But temperatures, well, turning a little bit colder as we get a bit more of an easterly influence, but not particularly cold at this stage.
20:20However, if I turn on the temperature anomalies, what you'll notice is that the most likely weather pattern by Tuesday, the 11th of March is for high pressure to the northwest of the UK.
20:37And this cold north to northeast wind.
20:42So that high pressure with cold air wrapped around it in the most likely scenario is becoming more dominant across the UK.
20:50However, it's only just the most likely weather pattern.
20:55There's another scenario in which low pressure towards the southeast or the southwest maintains an easterly wind and it's relatively cold with air coming from the east.
21:06And there are other permutations of that similar weather pattern with high to the north and low to the south where we've got low pressure closer into the southwest.
21:16And average temperatures, but more unsettled more widely.
21:20So, yes, through next week we're going to see the weather patterns become stuck with higher pressure to the north, lower pressure to the south.
21:28But which of those dominates the weather is currently uncertain.
21:31What looks most likely is that the further north you are, the more likely it will turn drier, but also colder.
21:37And if it turns cold enough with winds from the north, then we'd see some wintry showers across northern and eastern Scotland, perhaps northeast England, for example.
21:45But at the same time, we'll have a milder area of low pressure to the southwest.
21:50And if that sends some of its weather our way, then it's most likely southern and southwestern parts of the country that we'll see some rain showers and milder or warmer weather at times as well.
22:02So the dividing line between those two weather types, the position of that across the UK is the main source for uncertainty throughout next week.
22:11Even if the bigger picture is fairly confident in terms of high to the north, low to the south.
22:17And just to show you the top three most likely weather patterns, this is for the middle of next week.
22:25The most likely, but only just, 19%, is for high pressure and cold air across the UK with that cold air coming down from the north.
22:34Second most likely, again, low pressure to the southwest and an easterly breeze.
22:40And third most likely there is just to have higher pressure more established over the UK.
22:45So I think if you're going to take anything away from this, throughout next week, many places are likely to be dry.
22:51If we're going to see more unsettled weather, it will be coming up from the south and southwest.
22:55And if we're going to see any milder weather, it will be coming up from the south and southwest.
22:59Whereas for much of the UK, we'll see this downturn in temperatures.
23:03And if it gets cold enough, which is certainly possible, with winds coming from the north or northeast, there is that chance of some wintry showers, even though we're getting towards the middle of March.
23:13Return to overnight frosts as well if we see lighter winds at times.
23:17So mild this weekend, mid-teens, but turning colder through next week, albeit relatively dry.
23:24What about the end of next week? If we fast forward, we'll go back a bit.
23:30Let's take Saturday as an example, Saturday the 15th of March.
23:33What we're seeing come through for the three most likely weather patterns is a greater dominance of the low to the southwest.
23:41So it may be that through next week, even if it does turn colder and drier for many places, particularly in the north, for a time, by the end of the week, into the weekend, there is this suggestion that lower pressure will begin to return.
23:55And certainly that's showing up on these probability charts.
23:58From the middle of March, we're seeing these blues begin to arrive again, indicating a return to things like this.
24:06Low pressure, more widely unsettled weather, but again, particularly across the south of the UK rather than the north.
24:13Very different to what we're seeing at the moment.
24:16Now through next week, if we were to summarise it, we would say it looks something like this.
24:25And this is what's showing up from the European model.
24:28This is the most likely pressure anomaly through next week.
24:32And this covers a whole week's period of weather, but it shows high pressure over Iceland and low pressure to the southwest.
24:39And just to reiterate that the main uncertainty is the dividing line between the cold, mostly dry high to the north and the milder, more unsettled low to the south.
24:51And the divide in that weather is the main source of uncertainty, is in the position of that dividing line.
24:59And I just want to talk about, well, this weather pattern where we've got high pressure to the north.
25:07It's coming through on the weather patterns here as dark red.
25:13And actually, we've got a number of different weather patterns where high pressure controls the weather.
25:19One where we've got high pressure over Scandinavia, one where we've got high pressure centred over the UK,
25:24one where we've got high pressure extending from the Azores.
25:27We've been through this before, but basically on this chart, wherever you see oranges and reds or yellows, high pressure is dominating the weather.
25:36And I thought to myself, you know what?
25:39It feels like when high pressure has arrived in the UK during the last year to 18 months, it's not lasted that long.
25:48You may have had that sense as well.
25:51We've had low pressure returning more often than not.
25:53So I thought I'd look back at the incident of high pressure and low pressure each day for the last few years and further back, in fact,
26:03and see whether there are any interesting trends and patterns that have emerged.
26:07And I did my own very much back of the envelope statistical analysis earlier today.
26:13I'm not publishing this in a scientific paper.
26:16It may not stand up to rigorous scientific scrutiny.
26:19But I thought it was interesting anyway.
26:21So what I looked at was a data set that has a label for each day going back to 1960 of whether one of those high pressure centred or dominated weather patterns was in control or low pressure.
26:36And for how long was high pressure in control?
26:39Just to see whether in the past we had longer high pressure streaks.
26:44So basically, when high pressure has arrived in the past, has it stuck around for longer or not?
26:50And what have been the more recent trends?
26:53What this is showing now is the average length of high pressure streaks per year.
26:58So each year, how long typically has higher pressure lasted for when it's arrived?
27:04And a notable year that sticks out there is 1963.
27:08It's way up there.
27:09And actually, I discovered that in 1963, you might remember 1963 if you're old enough, but it was the coldest winter on record, essentially.
27:19And it had the longest period of unbroken high pressure on record since 1960 as well.
27:27So 55 days in which we had one of those high pressure dominated patterns without any lows in between.
27:34So that's really skewed it there.
27:36Otherwise, the most important thing to make out here is there's a lot of year to year variability, which is what I would have suspected.
27:43But 2024, last year, one of the lower ones.
27:47In fact, there's only four years going back to 1960 in which the length of time high pressure is stuck around for has been shorter.
27:55So that that was interesting, I thought.
27:57And finally, I looked at it since 2009.
28:01Just give us a bit more detail here.
28:03And this shows the average length of time high pressure stuck around for each month since 2009.
28:08And it's immediately apparent that there's huge month to month variability depending on different weather patterns and no real likelihood of picking out a long term trend.
28:20But two things to point out.
28:22Well, one is that there's a huge month to month variability.
28:26Another one is that that big spike there was June 2023, hottest June on record.
28:32You might remember it. We had sunshine for virtually the whole of the month.
28:36We had high pressure close by. So we have this incredible streak of high pressure during that June.
28:41And since then, it's really dropped off. And it's been notable how short the incidence of high pressure has been through last spring and summer.
28:48So 2024 spring and summer, the incidence and the duration of high pressure when it stuck around has been much lower.
28:55Now, in recent months, that's picked up again.
28:58And so whether that's reflective of a general shift in the weather patterns or whether it's just a random occurrence, I can't shed any further light on that.
29:07But I thought it was interesting that the main takeaway from this is that our weather patterns are highly variable, highly variable.
29:15And the length of time that high pressure sticks around for and how often it visits the UK has varied hugely from month to month and from year to year in the past.
29:24During the last 18 months, we've not seen much high pressure and certainly it hasn't stuck around for as long as it might have done previously.
29:33But these big spikes indicate that, yeah, there's always the chance in the coming months.
29:40Maybe March will be another month where we see a big spike of high pressure lasting for longer.
29:45And just to end on another graphic, which is fairly technical, but some of you might be asking about it, the stratospheric polar vortex.
29:54This is the circulation of winds in the stratosphere. So above where most of our weather takes place above the North Pole.
30:00This circulation of winds has been particularly strong all through the winter.
30:04And when it's strong, it tends to encourage a more active jet stream.
30:08That is what we've seen at times. But this shows the trend in that wind speed during the next couple of weeks.
30:16And what it's showing is this steep drop off next week.
30:20And what we're likely to see next week is something called a sudden stratospheric warming.
30:24Not going to go into details for those of you who don't know what I'm talking about right now.
30:28But there is a video on the Met Office YouTube channel all about sudden stratospheric warming.
30:34Just search for it on YouTube. It's on our Learn About Weather channel. That will explain everything you need to know.
30:39But essentially, we're likely to see this sudden stratospheric warming where you get a big warming in the stratosphere above the North Pole.
30:47And a reversal of the winds circulating around the North Pole.
30:50And what that can do is it can encourage blocked weather patterns 10 days, 14 days further ahead.
30:58So I mentioned the potential return to more unsettled weather around the middle of March.
31:03If this happens next week, that more unsettled weather may not last that long before higher pressure returns.
31:11So just a subtle hint there. But of course, that's a long way off.
31:15And I've covered more than enough in this week's deep dive.
31:17So thank you for joining me as always. And let me know if you've got any questions.
31:22Give us a comment and give us a like. Bye bye.