Severe Weather Update 4 March 2025: Tropical Cyclone Alfred update, moving westwards towards Qld.
Video current as of 5:30pm AEST Tuesday 4 March 2025.
Know your weather, know your risk. For the latest forecasts and warnings, go to our website www.bom.gov.au or the BOM Weather app.
Video current as of 5:30pm AEST Tuesday 4 March 2025.
Know your weather, know your risk. For the latest forecasts and warnings, go to our website www.bom.gov.au or the BOM Weather app.
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00:00Hello from the Bureau of Meteorology. It's just gone 5.30 in the evening on Tuesday, Queensland
00:06time, 6.30pm NSW time. That means we've just had the most recent forecast track map for Tropical
00:13Cyclone Alfred issued, and alongside that track we have seen a whole lot of new severe weather
00:18warnings issued for eastern parts of Australia as Tropical Cyclone Alfred approaches. It's only
00:24a couple of days away now so we're really honing in on the when and the where of Tropical Cyclone
00:29Alfred's arrival. Let's get into the latest information, starting with the current position
00:34of Alfred, which is still the best part of 600km east of the country, around about in line with
00:40the state border. Importantly, during the day on Tuesday we have seen Alfred shift direction. It
00:46had been moving south-eastwards for several days, but it's taken a bit of a U-turn and has now
00:50started its track westwards back towards the country. It is expected to continue on that
00:56westerly trajectory throughout the day on Wednesday as a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone.
01:01That means in the coming days as Alfred approaches the country, it's estimated the
01:05winds rolling around Alfred at the moment are somewhere around 100km an hour, gusting
01:09up towards 150km an hour. Alfred is likely to reach south-east Queensland either very late in
01:17the day on Thursday or very early in the day on Friday morning, and we'll just zoom in a little
01:22bit to get a better idea of the crossing point. What we have here is the most likely track that
01:27Alfred will take, which suggests a crossing between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast,
01:32likely as a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone, very late Thursday or very early on Friday.
01:38The Tropical Cyclone warning is shown here in orange and that runs from Double Point Island,
01:42north of Gympie in Queensland, down to Yamba in New South Wales. That's the area where gale
01:47force winds are expected to kick in within the next 24 hours. There are a whole lot more severe
01:53weather warnings and I want to go through them one weather element at a time, starting with the
01:58heavy rainfall and the associated flooding. For many people, rain and flooding will be the most
02:04significant part of this weather event. With Tropical Cyclone Alfred several hundred kilometres
02:10offshore at the moment, most of the rain is out over open waters and we've just seen some
02:14showery weather across eastern parts of both southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
02:19Rain will build across the east of the country on Wednesday but the heavy falls are really expected
02:23to arrive on Thursday, with the potential for locally intense falls near and south of Alfred's
02:29crossing point on Thursday evening and Friday morning. Because of that we've got this pretty
02:34large severe weather warning area for heavy rainfall. This has just been issued, it runs
02:39from north of Noosa Heads or just south of Fraser Island Garry, all the way down to Smoky Cape here
02:46in New South Wales. We could easily see several hundred millimetres of rain across a 24-hour period
02:51when Alfred approaches, particularly for these areas through here from the Sunshine Coast down
02:57to Coolingadda and then down towards Grafton. That is likely where the heaviest falls will be
03:02and these heavy rainfall totals can bring us flash flooding as well as riverine flooding.
03:07We have got a significant flood watch which has already been issued across these states,
03:12flood watch from just south of Bundaberg to around about Port Macquarie. Now we have got
03:17some slightly different colours on the map here, that's just because these flood watches
03:22are written slightly differently for each state but the message across both Queensland and the
03:28New South Wales flood watch remains the same. Many rivers are likely to reach their flood thresholds
03:34and we could see a number of rivers reach major flood thresholds through both Queensland and New
03:39South Wales when we see that heavy rain from Alfred really kick in late in the day Thursday
03:44and early in the day on Friday. Now let's talk about wind and it's already been pretty windy
03:50across eastern parts of the country. We've seen gusts of about 80 kilometres an hour today.
03:54Those winds are only forecast to increase as Alfred gets closer with damaging to destructive
04:00winds, particularly again around that crossing point late in the day Thursday, early in the day
04:06Friday. As you can see here from our wind map, the winds are expected to be the strongest near
04:11and south of where Alfred crosses. So what that means is we could see the very strongest,
04:16most destructive wind gusts, potentially about 150 kilometres an hour through spots like Brisbane,
04:21the Gold Coast in Queensland, as well as the hinterlands and elevated areas slightly away
04:27from the coast. And for New South Wales it will be areas north of Grafton which likely experience
04:32the strongest winds, both along the east coast as well as about elevated inland parts of the
04:37northern rivers and the northern tablelands. We've also got a severe weather warning for the damaging
04:42wind covers the same area with those strongest winds potentially 150 kilometres an hour around
04:48and south of the crossing location, which is why getting that crossing point right on the map is so
04:54important. Finally I wanted to discuss ocean conditions, starting with the swell which has
04:59already been very significant across eastern parts of Australia through the week so far.
05:04We've got very very large waves moving in with tropical cyclone Alfred for eastern
05:09coastal waters, waves of six to seven metres are possible for northern New South Wales and
05:14southern parts of Queensland. These could be very significant, continuing to cause coastal erosion
05:19and flooding for low-lying areas. Because of that we've got a coastal hazards warning,
05:23this is a long one as well, it runs from south of Forster in New South Wales all the way along
05:28the east coast up to Sandy Cape, which is the very northern tip of Fraser Island Garry here,
05:33and includes all eastern facing coastlines right down that side. And this warning covers a couple
05:39of different things, damaging surf due to those very large waves which could cause damage and
05:45erosion along eastern coastlines, as well as abnormally high tides and storm surge. As Alfred
05:51arrives we could see some tidal locations get water between half a metre or a metre above their
05:57typical highest tides, which could lead to flooding and inundation for low-lying coastal areas
06:03and properties. Just to recap, the main hazards we are expecting with the arrival of tropical
06:08cyclone Alfred, heavy rain and flooding for large areas of Queensland and New South Wales,
06:13damaging to destructive winds, as well as storm surge and coastal inundation. This is a really
06:18significant event so if you are in these areas or you know people who are, please make sure they
06:23are across the latest information, severe weather warnings and tropical cyclone tracks, and always
06:28listen to and follow advice from your local authorities and emergency management. Thanks
06:32for watching and stay safe.