In this week's edition of our weekly talk show, participants discuss the dramatic shake-up regarding Ukraine diplomacy
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00:00Hello and welcome to Brussels, my love, our weekly talk show from the heart of Europe
00:17where we break down the highs and lows of EU policymaking.
00:21I'm Stefan Grobe.
00:23Thank you for tuning in.
00:24Coming up this week, what happened at the White House didn't stay at the White House.
00:30The made-for-TV clash between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky left America's allies
00:34in Europe stunned.
00:36Never before has there been such a public display of disdain and distrust between allies
00:41and partners.
00:42The Middle-Earth deal that was supposed to be signed in Washington is now up in the air,
00:48as is the future commitment of the United States to supporting Ukraine.
00:53And the disaster in the Oval Office left European leaders scrambling for answers.
00:58One option is a massive ramp-up of military spending to support Ukraine and defend Europe
01:03alone, in case Trump and Elon Musk decide to unceremoniously withdraw U.S. troops from
01:10the continent.
01:11To fill this void, the British Prime Minister even suggested a coalition of the willing
01:16to protect Ukraine and a peace agreement with Russia that may or may not come.
01:21Where is all this going?
01:23The perfect question for our guests today.
01:26Ville Niinistö, member of the European Parliament for the Greens from Finland, Shara Islam,
01:32independent analyst and commentator on European affairs from Belgium, and Giuseppe Spatafora,
01:38research analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies.
01:42Welcome to all of you.
01:44But before we get started, let's take a look at the dramatic days we all witnessed that
01:49could shape the future in Europe.
01:56What has become a brutal war of attrition has suddenly received a new focus.
02:04After three years of fighting, a negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine seems to
02:09be taking center stage.
02:11But peace at what price?
02:17Donald Trump's brutal smackdown of Volodymyr Zelensky raises more questions than it offers
02:22perspectives.
02:23You got to be more thankful, because let me tell you, you don't have the cards.
02:28With us, you have the cards, but without us, you don't have any cards.
02:32Will the United States abandon Ukraine?
02:35How far is Trump willing to go to placate Vladimir Putin?
02:39And could Ukraine afford to keep on fighting only with support from Europe?
02:45Meanwhile, Western allies are making dramatic efforts to mend ties with Washington.
02:51This week, Trump first seemed to keep the door open, but then froze military aid for
02:57Ukraine.
02:58And Zelensky first delivered an olive branch of swords by thanking America profusely.
03:03You can almost hear the champagne bottles popping in the Kremlin.
03:06Is Putin about to win this war?
03:11That was quite weak.
03:13Before we answer that question, I'd like to come back to that infamous clash in the White
03:19House.
03:20How did you see that moment, and what went through your mind, Shaharal, I'll start with
03:25you.
03:26I hate bullies.
03:27This was bullying at an epic scale.
03:29You know, it was humiliating, degrading, and actually unnecessary.
03:34So frankly, I was watching that, and my heart was sinking, thinking, which kind of world
03:38are we entering?
03:39Bully instead of diplomacy?
03:41What is happening to us?
03:43Yeah.
03:44Giuseppe?
03:45It is true that, indeed, it was unprecedented on so many levels.
03:48There were questions about whether Zelensky was able – could have done it differently,
03:54but it is really hard.
03:55If he had done something like Macron, pushing over and taking Trump's finger and fact-checking
04:00him, I don't know if it would have been right, because Macron is able to do it because
04:03of his personal relationship.
04:04But for Ukraine, it – clearly, Zelensky was there.
04:08Perhaps there was a trap set up.
04:09It was really tough for Zelensky to do anything like that, so it was really risky as an environment
04:18So is the relationship between Trump and Ukraine now totally shattered, or can it still be
04:22repaired?
04:23Well, this was very disheartening, and I agree that it was bullying actions by Trump and
04:27J.D. Vance.
04:28I think there are two ways of interpreting it.
04:30Either they set a trap to Zelensky on a purpose to give them a chance to withdraw support
04:39from Ukraine, or then, you know, J.D. Vance especially acted in a way where you can also
04:45interpret it as, you know, 40 minutes had passed in the discussion, Zelensky managed
04:5040 minutes of that weird discussion, and then in the end, J.D. Vance had this cultural war
04:55kind of attitude against Zelensky, where he had no choice than to uphold his country's
05:00position that they are being brutally attacked, and they have to protect their integrity and
05:04their sovereignty.
05:05It was not about how they should relate to U.S.
05:09It was about how one should relate to Putin.
05:11And this is the big problem with Donald Trump's policy.
05:14Trump has a tendency of making deals in a way where he – his mentality is that of
05:20an imperial authoritarian, and that's the big question mark for Europe and Ukraine.
05:25Can you really trust on Trump actually supporting Ukraine in the future if he has a similar
05:29mentality than Putin?
05:31So he – Trump is a transactional figure, and also he bases his actions on personal
05:38relationship.
05:39You mentioned Macron.
05:41Charlotte, I wonder – and Trump hates Zelensky since his first term.
05:46Would things be different today if there were somebody else at the helm of Ukraine other
05:51than Zelensky?
05:52Well, that is a moot point.
05:54Obviously, there is personal acrimony there, there's history there, but I think we should
05:58move beyond this specific event, as it were, this incident, and look at the deep structural
06:03changes that are taking place in America, which, as you've said, has become transactional.
06:09And in America, that is withdrawing not just from Europe, but in a way from the world,
06:14which the president that is making deals based on his business interests, and the whole sort
06:20of geopolitical landscape is changing as we talk.
06:23This has major implications for the multipolar world which we live in at the moment.
06:28The Western leadership that we've counted on in so many ways, including in development
06:32aid, peacekeeping troops, I mean, all of those issues, we have to rethink.
06:37And I think Europe is basically in the firing line, because the transatlantic relationship
06:42has been such a bedrock of our own identity and the way we've sort of conducted our affairs
06:47as Europeans.
06:48We've relied on the US.
06:50For me, this is not just a wake-up call, this is a major wake-up call, you know, we should
06:55all be sitting up and really changing the way we think and act.
06:59But the question remains, and you said it's certainly moot to speculate about Zelensky's
07:03future, but there were some voices in the U.S. from the Republican Party that – putting
07:10pressure on Zelensky to step down.
07:12Indeed.
07:13Is this, at the end – and he suggested something like –
07:16In exchange for peace, I'm ready to step – in exchange for the future of Ukraine's
07:22being in the right hands and protected, I'm happy to step down, absolutely.
07:26The thing is that there are people such as Lindsey Graham, who had been at Munich Security
07:29Conference and had said, oh, look, I am – you are the perfect ally.
07:34And then now, after the spat, he said, well, Zelensky is ungrateful and he should resign.
07:39This indicates that within the Republican Party, at this moment, there is little to
07:45no opposition to Trump.
07:47Trump can do what he wants, and people realize that if they want to stay in power, in business,
07:51they will need to do what Trump says.
07:53Now, to the point of whether with Zelensky – without Zelensky, it would be different,
07:58it's probably possibly true, but the problem is that that's what the Russians want.
08:02Even the Russians had said, as part of the first ceasefire plans or draft that have circulated,
08:09the Russians want elections before the deal is signed.
08:13And that's obvious.
08:14We know why.
08:15Because with a different – with an election, especially in a country at war, the Russians
08:18would have many ways to influence that election in order to put in place somebody who is much
08:23closer to them and would be more willing to take different positions and an accord that
08:27is much closer to them.
08:29So that's Russian playbook.
08:30Right.
08:31Ville, this minerals deal that Trump has come up with, will it still be signed?
08:39And who will benefit most of it?
08:41Well, I think it's interesting also.
08:42It shows that Trump has this mentality that in order to support Ukraine, he wants something
08:47in return.
08:48So he's not protecting values, he's not protecting democracy or NATO's position
08:54or European national sovereignty.
08:56That's not his mentality.
08:58And we see it also in the UN, U.S. siding with Russia on votes which is unprecedented
09:04in these circumstances.
09:06So I think what Zelensky thought is that if they do sign this agreement, they have some
09:13kind of a window where cooperation with the U.S. can continue, they can get military support.
09:19By signing this agreement, the Americans would have an interest in having a post-war Ukraine
09:25which is free and able to take in American investment and also the Americans would gain
09:31from that.
09:32So that is the logic for Zelensky.
09:33But at the same time, you have to be careful about what kind of deals you sign that you
09:38don't give over your national resources to the U.S. government, because the Ukrainians
09:42don't want that either.
09:43Right.
09:44Isn't that a kind of catch-22 situation also for the Americans shot?
09:50Trump says, well, the fact that U.S. mining operations are going on is a security guarantee.
09:56Now, the U.S. mining companies say we're not doing this without security guarantees, because
10:01setting up a new mine takes years, could be up to 10 years.
10:05A business venture is not a security guarantee.
10:07Right.
10:08So what about this?
10:10Who should give these security guarantees, then?
10:12Is it the companies, the mining companies?
10:15Well, ultimately, it'll have to be the American administration.
10:18It will have to be the American security forces.
10:21That is what ultimately happens when you say, you know, this is an exchange for security
10:25guarantees.
10:26It is not going to be the business companies, the entrepreneurs doing it, which is where
10:31I think the European presence that we've been talking about, the boots on the ground from
10:35the Europeans, the 30,000-strong troop deployment that France and Britain have sort of put on
10:40the table, I think that's where this could become important, because it takes it away
10:44from the American focus and brings in the real issues of security guarantees for Ukraine
10:50once peace is declared.
10:52So I'm a bit confused about what's going to be done, but I do agree with Vele that, you
10:56know, this is meant to be a win-win situation for Ukraine, which gets the investments and
11:02the security guarantees, and America gets access to very precious minerals that it needs
11:06for its tech competition with China, among others.
11:10Giuseppe.
11:11Well, first of all, one problem about, indeed, setting up is the cost.
11:15We talked about it before.
11:17The other problem is that most of those minerals are in the east of Ukraine, right?
11:20They're in the area that is closest to the front line.
11:22So paradoxically, that should be an incentive for Trump and others to say Ukraine should
11:28get as much of the territory back as possible.
11:30Now, this is not what sound, what is coming out of these negotiations, as much as we can
11:35tell.
11:36What we can hear is something that is very close to the Russian line, and it's really
11:39a paradox that the U.S. is doing that, unless you want to see the perspective of Trump as
11:44one of somebody who wants something quick, something for domestic purpose, something
11:48that potentially, people say, could win him the Nobel Prize.
11:52Perhaps there's always that, but the point is that it's not an agreement so far that
11:56is signed up in order to achieve sustainable peace, but it's something to give Trump something
12:01quick to win.
12:02And for the Europeans, it is important to be there.
12:06At the same time, the problem is that, and Macron and Stamir have said it, this may not
12:10work without a U.S. backstop behind it.
12:12So that's always bringing in the Americans.
12:15There is, of course, the problem of security guarantees for Ukraine is one thing, but if
12:21we take it a step further, it's the entire future of NATO that is at stake here.
12:26And it is, of course, in Washington's foreign policy establishment.
12:29As in Europe, the specter of a NATO without the United States is circulating.
12:34One who sharply rejects this idea is NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, of all people.
12:41At the crisis summit in London, he said the following.
12:44Take a listen.
12:45I have spoken many times with President Trump.
12:47He's a good friend.
12:48We've worked now for eight years together, no, for four years when he was president first
12:53time and we stayed in touch when he was out of the presidency.
12:57Of course, we have now re-engaged very actively again.
13:02And he is totally committed, as he said many times to Article 5, to NATO.
13:06So please, let's stop gossiping about what the U.S. might or might not do.
13:10They are in NATO.
13:11They are committed to NATO.
13:12They're committed to Article 5.
13:14This is what they consistently say, including Pete Hex, the defense secretary, the president
13:19himself and others.
13:20Really, you can't be clearer than Rutte at this point.
13:25But is he right?
13:27Are we just gossiping here?
13:28I mean, Elon Musk said the U.S. should leave NATO, right?
13:32Well, I think Rutte has no other position than to say precisely what he's saying.
13:37That's what he's supposed to say.
13:38He's a good friend of mine.
13:39He's supposed to say that.
13:40And it also eases Trump.
13:41So I understand that those who are presidents or secretaries generals of NATO, they like
13:47to try to appease Trump, because if they get personal feuds, everything will get worse.
13:52I understand that.
13:53But at the same time, we who are not presidents, we can say aloud that American commitment
13:57to NATO is at its lowest point in NATO history.
14:00We can't have full guarantees that the administration of Trump looking at the project 2025, what
14:06are their policy goals internally, what are their policy goals in foreign policy, we can't
14:11have any guarantees that they will support Europe in a time of crisis.
14:16They might, but they might want something for exchange.
14:21And that's a big difference from the past.
14:24You see, one person is very quiet in the current situation of escalation, and that's Vladimir
14:29Putin.
14:30And Vladimir Putin is only quiet when things are moving to his direction.
14:34It's wishful thinking, isn't it?
14:35It's really wishful thinking on the part of Mark Rutte.
14:38I know that, you know, as you said, this is to appease, but I think European leaders are
14:42playing sort of double different kind of games.
14:44You know, you go there and you try and appease him.
14:47You bring a letter from King Charles.
14:49You know, put your hand on his arms and his thighs and the rest of it, and you're friendly.
14:54But I think you need to be respect.
14:56You need to get respect.
14:57I think bullies, in my experience, bullies like people who stand up for themselves and
15:02who are brave enough to speak truth to power.
15:05And I'm not sure all this dilly dallying is actually going to get us somewhere.
15:10Look, the U.S. administration previously as well has always been saying to Europe, put
15:15up your defense spending, take up more responsibility within NATO.
15:19What Trump is doing is just accelerating and being more, let's say, rude about it, more
15:24harsh about it, like J.D. Vance was at the Munich Security Conference.
15:29We have to listen to this.
15:30I think some of us are.
15:31I think Emmanuel Macron is quite sort of determined to move ahead with this, his strategic autonomy.
15:37But are those sort of, once again, wishy-washy, one step back?
15:41The fact is that Europeans are not united on this issue.
15:44They don't have a united front vis-Ã -vis Russia.
15:46We know that.
15:47And when it comes to Donald Trump, once again, we're fighting, squabbling amongst ourselves.
15:51Yeah.
15:52Giuseppe, the U.S. has not drawn up a specific list of demands for peace negotiations.
16:01Will Trump pressure Ukraine to give up territories in the east to move forward?
16:08Almost surely.
16:09The territories that are under Ukrainian-Russian occupation right now, they're most likely
16:14gone, at least according to this current framework.
16:16It's unlikely to bring those back.
16:18And that's true even without negotiations, because we have been trying – the Ukrainians
16:23have been trying to get those back, and militarily this has been very difficult.
16:26The problem is that, in addition, Putin has annexed four provinces of Ukraine, not all
16:32of which are under Russian control, but are under Russian law part of Russia.
16:37So all four parts, only Luhansk is the area, is the only province that is fully under – almost
16:42fully under Russian control.
16:43So the problem there could be that Putin could say all those provinces are mine, and this
16:48is the starting point.
16:49Plus, there's the other thing that Russia tends to put very harsh demands at the beginning,
16:56and there is right now no incentive for Russia to not do those demands.
17:00The demands are basically the same that were in place before the war started, that Ukraine's
17:06government has to change, that Ukraine has to be neutral, and even that U.S. forces should
17:11move away from the eastern part of the alliance.
17:14That's the biggest paradox, and I see Finland or Finnish members of parliament right now,
17:18because all those countries that are next in line are also the ones that are spending
17:22the most on defense.
17:24So paradoxically, they are the U.S.'s closest allies in the sense of Trump's – if you
17:29view – only measure alliance by how much you spend on defense, but they would be the
17:32one that are ready to suffer the biggest consequences if Trump gets – sorry, if Putin gets what
17:39he wants.
17:40Really, before I come to you, I'm going to sum up this discussion here.
17:46So the U.S. is switching sides in the Ukrainian war.
17:51The continued U.S. troop presence in Europe is suddenly uncertain, as is the future of
17:57NATO.
17:58None of this is inspiring confidence among citizens in Europe.
18:02So how do people view the latest developments between war and peace?
18:06We've asked around on the streets of Brussels, and this is what we found out.
18:11I think Trump – it's good with words, but not reaction.
18:14I'm very sad because everybody needs to work together.
18:19We want peace.
18:20Everybody wants peace.
18:22So I hope that everybody will talk, find a solution.
18:28It's very worrying.
18:29Okay, now the big heat might be on Ukraine, but tomorrow it's us, and then so on.
18:36So where does it stop?
18:38So of course I'm worried and concerned, and however – yeah, it's bad.
18:42This is going to wake European politicians and leaders up to be – show more united
18:47fronts.
18:48I don't know if I'd necessarily be scared, because I don't like to live in fear, and
18:53I'd prefer to remain positive and just think that despite Trump mentioning a World War
18:59III, I don't think anybody really wants to go in that direction.
19:02So obviously there's no panic, but a certain unease.
19:05We are a little worried.
19:06What is the – what are you hearing in Finland?
19:08Well, I think people want determined action by European leaders and joint front.
19:13Finland is a country with 1,300 kilometers of border with Russia.
19:16We've had wars and skirmishes with Russia for a thousand years, if you count Novgorod
19:21in, so that's about 60 wars or skirmishes.
19:24We will do that, yeah.
19:25So we have a history of that.
19:28So we look at this differently than some of our Western European colleagues.
19:32So what we want to achieve in the European Parliament and what our state leaders should
19:36achieve is the realization that European military capabilities have to compensate for the lesser
19:43American presence in Europe in a way that Russia also understands that their threat
19:49is negated.
19:50Putin's plan is to get a ceasefire in Ukraine for Trump to lift sanctions in order for him
19:57to get more money for his war economy.
19:59He doesn't stop in Ukraine, so he would continue after the ceasefire to push Ukraine maybe
20:04into another war or somebody else – Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, or even we as bordering
20:10nations would be there.
20:12He doesn't have the money.
20:14I mean, Russia is losing – they don't have liquid money left.
20:19Almost all of their assets have been used that are not frozen.
20:22So he would need to increase taxes in the next half year to finance the war in Ukraine.
20:28So what Putin is now wanting is that Trump is giving him a lifeline to get more money
20:33for his war economy, and then he would build up on it.
20:35So what we have to do is not allow that.
20:38I want to finish this round with Shara.
20:42So far, the European public has been squarely behind Ukraine, but now with far-right pro-Moscow
20:50parties gaining influence in Europe, is this going to change?
20:57There is that danger, I think, because misinformation from the far-right is very strong on these
21:02issues.
21:03People also, frankly, I think authentically, genuinely want peace.
21:07It's not very nice.
21:09It's not very pleasant to live in a state of war, constant unease and war and adversarial
21:17relations with our neighbours, you know.
21:19So I think people genuinely want peace, but it has to be on the right terms.
21:23And I think if this is explained in a lucid manner to our public, they will be understanding
21:29all the things that Ville has talked about, Giuseppe has talked about.
21:32We are in a moment, existentially, very, very difficult.
21:35Good.
21:36We'll keep that in mind.
21:38That's all we have time for this round.
21:39We're going to take a short break, and when we come back, disgrace in Washington, decisions
21:45in London and Brussels, how Europe assumes risk and responsibility.
21:50Stay with us.
21:53Welcome back to Brussels, my love.
22:02Our guests are still Shada Islam, Giuseppe Spadafora and Ville Nynistö.
22:08Europe may well be on its own when it comes to supporting Ukraine in the future.
22:13However, the participants at the London summit proved to Trump that they, too, can create
22:17facts that will influence the final settlement of the war.
22:21First, more military support for Ukraine.
22:23Second, no demilitarization of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
22:28And third, security guarantees from European forces behind Ukrainian lines.
22:34Can such a concept work, and could it impress Trump, Giuseppe?
22:39It's necessary, absolutely, because the alternative is nothing.
22:42The alternative is the U.S. withdraws, and potentially even there is no peace.
22:46And I still don't know when you can get Putin to the table.
22:50But it is essential to keep Ukraine as a strong, independent nation with a Westward
22:56orientation.
22:57And you can only do that by ensuring that there's no future attack on Ukraine again,
23:03or if there is, that Ukraine is able to defend itself.
23:06And obviously, that depends also on us and what we can do.
23:09It doesn't mean a lot of troops, 30,000, it sounds like a large number, but we can do
23:14so much more than that.
23:15But that is enough because Ukraine itself has a strong base, and it needs just some
23:18support.
23:19There has been a lot of activity in this town this week.
23:24The EU Commission has proposed a new joint borrowing of 150 billion euros to lend to
23:30EU governments for defense as part of an overall 800 billion, 800 billion euro financing effort.
23:39Is that the right way forward, and is it enough?
23:43It's unprecedented.
23:44I mean, for the EU to come out with this rearm project to finance defense spending,
23:50we're moving in a different direction from which we've been used to, right?
23:54We haven't been known for our military defense assets, have we?
23:58So I think this is an unprecedented step.
24:00Now, the issue for me really is, how do you explain this to the public, a public which
24:05is complaining about the rising cost of living, which is complaining about housing, social
24:10justice, the cohesion funds that may be used for defense spending?
24:15So there is a lot of, I think, political capital at stake here, and I'm also wondering in terms
24:20of how we actually manage such huge amounts of money.
24:23Who is going to be in charge?
24:25Is it the European Commission?
24:27Will there be a European defense fund, sort of somebody leading that?
24:30So I think it's gray territory.
24:32It's important narrative.
24:34But now the challenge is to walk this talk, and not to forget that we also have very different
24:39threat perceptions, and not everybody within the 27 EU states agrees on the threat posed
24:45by Russia.
24:46That brings me again to Finland.
24:48Ville, you're the only politician at the table.
24:50How do you explain that to your voters?
24:52Well, I think we will need leadership on a high level here.
24:55So the member countries' leaders would need to show that this is also about protection
25:01of our way of life, seriously, this time our way of life.
25:04So democracy, human rights, rule of law, and that we have also this, I mean, Europe
25:10is a superpower when it comes to trade.
25:13And we can also get allies from outside of Europe, in Latin America, Southeast Asia,
25:18who are a bit bewildered by what Trump is doing with trade wars, and also very worried
25:23about Putin's and China's influence.
25:25So Europe can use its soft power, but still, to use that soft power, we will need hard
25:30power.
25:31That's the reality of today.
25:32I like that you mentioned leadership, because on the European side, the United Kingdom seems
25:37to have taken the lead in the Ukraine crisis.
25:40Let's listen to Prime Minister Kirstame last Sunday, the host of the conference at Lancaster
25:45House.
25:46Here he is.
25:47We will go further to develop a coalition of the willing to defend a deal in Ukraine
25:53and to guarantee the peace.
25:55The UK is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air, together
26:01with others.
26:03Europe must do the heavy lifting.
26:06Yeah, the heavy lifting.
26:08Giuseppe, I think we can say that the Ukraine crisis has kind of turbocharged UK-EU relations,
26:15right?
26:17What is in Starmer's interest here?
26:19Why is he taking the lead?
26:20What is at stake for him?
26:22Well, there is a lot at stake.
26:24Obviously, one thing is since Brexit, relations between the UK and the EU have been strained.
26:29This is the first government that is not a conservative government after Brexit, so that's
26:34clearly a signal that they wanted to do something different.
26:38On trade, I know that there's been some difficulties and there continue to be, but on defence,
26:42it's where the UK used to be and still is the most powerful country in Europe.
26:46It's the one that can take over the leadership from the United States.
26:50It is also the one that has taken the initiative of leading the Rammstein format, so it does
26:55make sense that UK does that.
26:57In all this, you know, it's interesting that the UK has taken the lead together with France
27:01on Ukraine, and then there's going to be, or this week, there is this summit on European
27:08security.
27:09Obviously, the UK is out of that, but it will be important to see how the money that the
27:13EU puts on the table can be spent on things that include also the UK, because this is
27:18about European deterrence.
27:19It's not just about deterrence of the EU.
27:22Norway included as well, right?
27:24Exactly.
27:25Is Ostama doing this because the governments in France and Germany are so weak domestically?
27:31I think there's a bit of that.
27:33I think that's very true, but it's also a very, I would say, a very fragile balancing
27:37act on his part, isn't he?
27:38Because he wants to maintain that special relationship with Donald Trump, JD Vance and
27:43all the rest of it, you know, the monarchy and, you know, coming, you know, visit by
27:47Trump to the UK and all the rest of it, while drawing closer to the EU, which Trump hates.
27:52You know, he's called it the enemy, the adversary and all the rest of it.
27:56So it's a balancing act.
27:57I'm not sure how it will go down with voters, and I'm not sure how we're going to hear in
28:02Europe deal with Britain, which obviously is now seeing as a channel, a conduit to the
28:08White House.
28:09Well, I think this is a moment also to mend our relationship with the UK government and
28:15the nation general.
28:17So I think there has been talk in the corridors in Brussels, but also in Westminster, that
28:24we could even create some kind of a formal partnership between the UK and EU on security
28:29and defence.
28:30That would be great, because we will need UK on this.
28:33We will need a strong European NATO.
28:35If US is less reliable, we will need also UK to have a big role there.
28:41And I think the conditions that were discussed in this meeting in London are precisely the
28:46conditions that need to be, you know, at the table in order for Ukraine to actually get
28:52a long-lasting peace.
28:53Without this back-up from Europe, Ukraine cannot even negotiate a peace.
28:57Giuseppe, very briefly, is the United Kingdom realising that its future lies with Europe
29:03rather than with the US?
29:05Well, I mean, they will keep having the transatlantic relationship as their core as well.
29:10They will try to remain this conduit.
29:12And I think, yes, it is true that it's important for them to keep both.
29:16I think it is.
29:17As long as we can keep the United States without it becoming a real problem, it is good.
29:22So a deal that has the US behind is always better than one without them.
29:26All right.
29:27But if they are not there, then...
29:28Good.
29:29On that point, we can close this conversation.
29:31Thank you so much to our guests.
29:32And thank you for watching.
29:34See you soon here on Euronews.
29:44Hello and welcome to Brussels, my love.
29:46My guests are Giuseppe Spatafora from the EU Institute for Security Studies, Finnish
29:51MEP Ville Nynästö, and EU affairs analyst Sara Islam.
29:56The Trump administration is currently taking a turn that will shock many by focusing entirely
30:01on direct negotiations with Moscow and hinting at peace strategies that are entirely to Russia's
30:07liking, a realignment that is not totally surprising given Trump's admiration for authoritarian
30:12rulers such as Putin.
30:15The question is, are we witnessing the creation of a new geopolitical reality here?
30:20I think we are.
30:22I think the stance of the US government is very different.
30:25So there is no alliance of the democratic nations anymore.
30:29Even how democratic Trump is, is questionable.
30:32He's doing unconstitutional acts with the efficiency work that they are doing with Elon
30:39Musk, which the courts are a mess in the US.
30:43So I think we will see cultural wars in the US.
30:45They will have an effect in Europe.
30:47But then also the possible closing of relations between Putin and Trump does create a headache
30:55for us.
30:56Yeah.
30:57Is he taking, Sara, Trump, taking a political domestic risk by realigning US policy with
31:04Russia?
31:05Will the Republican Party follow him blindly here?
31:09I don't know if they follow blindly for always in a sustained manner, but for the moment
31:13he doesn't have any opposition within his own party.
31:16And I have to say, the Democrats are pretty silent as well.
31:19So I think, you know, that that is something new in the US as well.
31:23But if I could just come back to what Ville said, there is a geopolitical reordering that's
31:28underway and it opens up space for other powers to play a role.
31:33And I would wish, I would want the EU to be among those powers, a united Europe can be.
31:39But you know, we have become a little bit, if I may say so, irrelevant in the world today.
31:43The world is watching.
31:45We have been totally out of the decisions being taken as regards the Middle East.
31:49That was another deal that was done between friends, if you like, a business deal, a Gaza
31:53retreat.
31:54And we are being accused by many countries, sometimes I think justifiably, about double
31:59standards where we're talking about the rule of law and, you know, all the important thing
32:03of the International Court of Justice when it comes to Russia.
32:06And we're not doing the same things vis-a-vis Israel.
32:08So double standards are there.
32:10So I think the EU will have to work very hard convincing countries in this multipolar
32:15world where countries have agency that they are really on the side of rule of law and
32:21human rights.
32:22And I think that is going to be a bit of a challenge.
32:25You mentioned the Democrats, they're kind of silent, as you said.
32:29Is this maybe because they think, OK, let's have Trump's second term and then it's over
32:36and then we all go back to normal?
32:38Well, let's see.
32:39I mean, four years, a lot can happen, especially if in 100 days a lot happens.
32:44They're definitely doing their own.
32:45They're thinking domestically, OK?
32:47They're thinking about what is happening and they have to pick their battles, right?
32:50There's so many battles to choose from.
32:52They're probably choosing the one that matter the most to American voters and probably the
32:55battle over inflation, for instance, is one or the fight over immigration or government
32:59efficiency.
33:00Women's affairs, women's rights.
33:01Absolutely, all that.
33:02So that's foreign policy recedes a little bit in the background.
33:06Perhaps it's normal.
33:07Perhaps we would do the same here.
33:08Of course, here for us, Ukraine is so central to our security that we cannot take it for
33:14granted or leave it.
33:15I mentioned it already, Trump's admiration for Putin.
33:19We found the quote last Friday in which he downright defends Putin and instead has nothing
33:25but contempt for his domestic political opponents.
33:28An astonishing and for many, embarrassing document.
33:33Take a listen.
33:34Biden, they didn't respect him.
33:36They didn't respect Obama.
33:38They respect me.
33:40Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me.
33:42He went through a phony witch hunt where they used him and Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia.
33:48You ever hear of that deal?
33:49And he had to go through that.
33:51And he did go through it.
33:52We didn't end up in a war and he went through it.
33:55He was accused of all that stuff.
33:56He had nothing to do with it.
33:58Came out of Hunter Biden's bedroom.
34:01It was disgusting.
34:03And then they said, oh, oh, the laptop from hell was made by Russia.
34:08The 51 agents, the whole thing was a scam.
34:12And he had to put up with that.
34:13He was being accused of all that stuff.
34:15Putin went through a lot and they used him.
34:18They, of course, being the Democrats.
34:20Not a word about Putin's aggressive foreign policy, about Russian cyber attacks, about
34:24repression and the murder and persecution of opponents, even in other European countries.
34:30What do you make of this?
34:31I think that's embarrassing for a U.S. leader to speak like that.
34:34He looks at everything from a very personal angle.
34:36So Putin's actions are reflected through how he acts on issues that are important for Trump,
34:42not by Putin's actions against rule of law or aggression in Ukraine or the war economy
34:48that they are building, all the war crimes and kidnapping of children and rapes that
34:53the Russian troops are doing, bombing civilians.
34:56And they didn't only start it in Ukraine.
34:58They've done it in Syria.
34:59They've done it in Chechnya.
35:00So this is long-lasting policy of Vladimir Putin.
35:04And if there was a leader of the free world there, it was Zelensky, because he was standing
35:10up to values.
35:11And I think the big question now is, is this kind of like – Russians and Putin have this
35:19policy of reflexive control.
35:21They try to make their opponents to do pro-Russia action by making it alluring to them and punishing
35:29them if they don't do it.
35:31So in a way, Trump is in the pocket of Putin currently, and that's very disheartening.
35:35And Shada, Putin has not succeeded militarily in Ukraine.
35:41He thought the war would be over in a couple of days.
35:44Now it's three years.
35:47So he has, in a way, overextended his political and economic options.
35:52And then Trump came back.
35:54Is Putin now just waiting for a moment to save his face?
36:01Yeah, it's manna from heaven, isn't it, for him?
36:04Manna from heaven.
36:05It's a God-sent gift.
36:06All he has to do is sit back and watch.
36:10And as you said, we haven't heard from him.
36:11But there's one thing that really worries me.
36:13It's not just four years.
36:15We're not only going to be facing this kind of America for the next four years.
36:19This is a long-term, epoch-changing, game-changing situation that we're in.
36:25Trump may or may not be elected, but others like him are there.
36:29This is a trend, a structural trend that we have to get used to.
36:34And whether Trump can make this peace without Zelensky, without Ukraine, without Europeans
36:39at the table or not, we'll see.
36:41It's a fast-moving world, right, fast-moving, changing very fast.
36:44One day it's yes, the next day it's no.
36:47But this change, this structural change that is happening in how America views the world,
36:52no longer global policemen, no longer the soft power that people looked at, the military
36:56power, this is going to have repercussions across the world.
37:00On that note, thank you very much.
37:02Great conclusion.
37:03We've reached the end of Brussels, my love.
37:06Thank you to our panel here in our studio and to our viewers at home.
37:10If you want to continue the conversation on any topic, write to brusselsmyloveateuronews.com
37:15or contact us on social media.
37:18That's it for today.
37:19I'm Stefan Grove.
37:20Have an excellent week.
37:21Take care and see you soon.