CGTN Europe spoke to Dr. Mathew George, Director and Senior Researcher in the Arms Transfers Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), about European defence spending and strategy.
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00:00European arms imports have soared in the past four years, according to a new report, the figure rose by 155% between 2020 and 2024, compared with the previous four years.
00:13And countries have become more dependent on the United States. While Washington supplied around half of European NATO members' military equipment between 2015 and 2019, that figure rose to 64% over the next four years.
00:29Well, an example of that military equipment that comes from the United States is the F-35 fighter jet. Germany is set to receive dozens next year in a $9 billion deal, and that sparked a wider debate about European reliance on US military equipment.
00:46And as President Donald Trump appears to realign with Russia, there are fears within the EU that decades-long security guarantees are no longer so reliable. So the EU has announced its own $860 billion plan to boost defence, made up of loans and changes to borrowing rules.
01:06Well, let's talk now to Dr Matthew George, Director of the Arms Transfers Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Matthew, welcome to the programme, good to see you. How has European defence been changing over the past few years?
01:23Thank you for having me. So, with time, we have seen that, you know, going back to data from the 1950s, Europe actually saw declines in its imports for every five-year period, and has never seen growth anywhere close to this 155% that we see in the last five.
01:42So it's huge in terms of the way that Europe has now started to rearm, and that's what the data shows. It's not what we were seeing before, but now every indicator shows that Europe is buying more arms.
01:56Rearmament isn't like buying a new car, though, is it? I mean, rearmament of Europe could take absolutely years and years. I mean, how strong is deterrence if Europe goes it alone without the United States?
02:12So that's going to be a really difficult question to answer, largely because both sides of the Atlantic are really intertwined. I mean, if you just look at what's pending for delivery, there's about 470-plus combat aircraft alone that European NATO states are waiting for from the US.
02:35And it's not just that. Like you said, it's a long process. Some of these equipment can be in service for 40 to 50 years. So it's all about spares, support, development, and so on for the next decades, more than a few decades.
02:50And so it's going to be a really expensive decision for Europe to want to do it alone. It's investment into these technologies, not for the next couple of years. It has to be a long-term decision.
03:05Some analysts suggest that the problem with sophisticated defence equipment, F-35s and the like, is that it really does need so much ongoing support from the people you've bought it from. So how do the UK, Europe, almost US-proof, if I can put it like that, their defence purchases?
03:31Well, for that, Europe, actually, everyone would have to find a way to do it themselves. And the way that the present system is, it's going to be really hard for both sides to work really independently of each other.
03:47With the decades of trust that has been built up, it was never understood that, or never thought of, that you had to go alone. But if that is the situation, then you'd have to effectively duplicate efforts on both sides of the Atlantic. And that's going to be difficult for everybody involved.
04:07Matthew, I'm sure we'll talk more in the coming months, but thank you for that. Dr Matthew George, Director of the Arms Transfers Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.