The local share market managed a small rise today after the US market went up on Friday.
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00:00Today is the 25th anniversary of the peak of the dot-com bubble, which was embodied
00:07in the Nasdaq index.
00:09It peaked at 5,132.5 and over the following two and a half years it fell 78%.
00:16Today the Nasdaq is more than tripled that March 2000 peak and has fallen 9.5% so far.
00:21Here's a chart of the main US index, the S&P 500, comparing Donald Trump's first
00:26term with his second so far.
00:29A big difference, as you can see, and that's partly due to the rising odds of a recession,
00:34in turn caused by the prospect of tariffs and the general uncertainty going on.
00:39This graph comes from a New York betting shop so it's not what you'd call a statistical
00:43model but this one is more statistical and it's going viral right now.
00:48The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's GDP Now model is saying the US is already in recession.
00:55The other reason US shares are falling is simply that they've gone up so much because
00:58of another tech boom, or perhaps bubble, especially since Donald Trump's first election.
01:04This graph uses market value compared to GDP.
01:08It's a record high so it could be time for an adjustment.
01:12Another sidelight worth noting is that although most of the attention has been on technology
01:17and AI, tobacco stocks have done even better and that's because governments did them
01:22a huge favour by banning their biggest cost, advertising and marketing.
01:27Saved them a fortune.
01:29The Aussie market went up today, dutifully following the US.
01:33Suspended Star Entertainment is bleeding in the water so naturally sharks are circling.
01:37US casino giant Bally's is offering $250 million for 50.1%.
01:43Star was too busy to respond.
01:47The US market rose on Friday but Hong Kong fell 2% today.
01:51And the Aussie dollar is steady tonight at 63.1 US cents.
01:55And that's finance.