On "Forbes Newsroom," Stevie O'Brien, Government and Public Policy Specialist at McMillan, discussed Mark Carney, who won in a landslide vote among Canada's Liberal Party to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and what his leadership could mean for the country's relationship with the United States.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Stevie O'Brien, lawyer as well as government and public policy expert with Macmillan. Stevie,
00:13thanks so much for joining me.
00:14Thank you so much.
00:15Stevie, I really appreciate the conversation today because you and I spoke after Prime
00:20Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau announced his resignation back in January. There was
00:25an election in Canada's Liberal Party over the weekend to replace him. Mark Carney won
00:31in a landslide victory, making him Canada's new prime minister. So to start off the conversation,
00:37who exactly is Mark Carney?
00:40Mark Carney has been a figure in Canadian political scene for a very long time, but
00:45never actually been a politician. He was governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008, sort of steering
00:52the country successfully through the financial crisis at the time. He went on then to be
00:57the governor of the Bank of England, steering the British economy through the very tumultuous
01:03Brexit period. He's got a CV of a strong economist banker. He's worked with conservative prime
01:12ministers and with liberal prime ministers. He's been in public service and he's been
01:19in the private sector. And so he's the one that Canadians think, or at least the Liberal
01:24Party thinks, is the best person to steer Canada through these sort of tumultuous times
01:32with tariffs and strained Canada-U.S. relations.
01:36I wanted to touch on that because those are two big things on his resume that stuck out
01:41to me. Governor of the Bank of Canada during the financial crisis in 2008 and also helping
01:47England during the Brexit chaos there. So people are confident that he is able to meet
01:53the moment really because of the tariff situation with the United States. Is that what you're
01:57saying?
01:58That's largely it. I think there's been a surge of popularity for the Liberal Party
02:05ever since Donald Trump has started talking about Canada as the 51st state or talking
02:14of and implementing tariffs. It has created sort of a national unity movement in Canada,
02:22which has benefited the Liberal Party, the greatest, who before Justin Trudeau stepped
02:27down was probably the lowest they had ever been in the polls and now is neck and neck
02:33with the Conservatives. And we anticipate there will be a general election called very
02:38soon.
02:40I know that within since President Trump announced the back and forth tariffs on Canada, Canadians
02:47have been really angry with America booing during the national anthem, some provinces
02:52taking American alcohol off of the shelves. Two months ago, you told me that liberals
02:57were probably polling at the lowest in modern history. So now is Donald Trump to blame or
03:05to the liberal benefit and surging them in the polls?
03:10Well, during the convention on Sunday where we elected Carney to the liberal leadership
03:16position, a former prime minister, Jean Chrétien, made the comment that we should give Donald
03:21Trump the order of Canada for uniting Canadians across the country so quickly and so with
03:29such force. I don't think we've seen this sign of domestic unity in a long time. Provinces
03:36working together, Canadians coming together across all stripes. And it is partially because
03:41of the tariffs. But I'd say the bigger the bigger piece is the sort of comments about
03:49governor of Canada, the 51st state comments. These have really riled up Canadian nationalism
03:57and threats to sovereignty or talks of annexation have really pulled the country together.
04:03And it's really interesting because this seemingly has come out of left field, at least
04:08from an American perspective. Canada and America are allies, long allies were neighbors. There's
04:15no appetite in lawmakers that I've talked to voters that I've talked to in Canada joining
04:21the United States. But President Trump, as you said, called Canada the 51st state called
04:26Justin Trudeau, the prime minister, governor. And I want to read you some of what Carney
04:31has said. He's called Trump a bully before. He's vowed that Canada will never be part
04:36of the United States. And this is what he said over the weekend. Quote, We didn't ask
04:40for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves. So the
04:44Americans, they should make no mistake in trade as in hockey. Canada will win. So when
04:50you're looking at these remarks, when you're looking at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and
04:54his tenuous relationship with President Trump in recent weeks, how do you think Carney's
05:00relationship with President Trump is going to look?
05:04So another thing that Carney said over the weekend is that you need to recognize the
05:09things you can change and the things you can't change. And he said specifically, we cannot
05:15change Donald Trump. He is going to continue to be who he is. But what Canada can do is
05:22look to our own economy and ways to strengthen it. We can find new trade partners who may
05:28be more reliable and we can focus on building different export avenues for for our energy,
05:35for our oil. And I think that that's what we can do. He will come to the table with
05:39a plan. He's a smart man. He will be able to to negotiate a new trade agreement, but
05:48he's not going to back down. And I think these tariffs are probably here for a while.
05:52And do Canadians like that, that the prime minister isn't going to back down because
05:58President Trump last week slapped tariffs on both Mexico and Canada. Canada responded
06:03immediately. Mexico said they were going to wait, announced their response over the weekend.
06:08Just days later, President Trump then announced he was pausing tariffs for most goods, the
06:12goods that fall under the USMCA agreement. And this week, Ontario placed a twenty five
06:18percent tariff on electricity exports to a handful of United States states. So is that
06:23something that's popular in Canada? These swift reactions? Yes, I think Canadians are
06:29expecting their politicians to stand up in this. And again, it's not just because of
06:35the tariffs. It's the threat to sovereignty. If somebody was threatening the existence
06:40of the United States as a country going forward, you could imagine that that would really bring
06:45people together and they may even be able to withstand some sort of economic hardship
06:52if it meant that they were standing up for the existence of their country. And I think
06:56that that's what we're seeing here. And that's also one of the differences with Mexico.
07:01I think something when I've talked to lawmakers about President Trump, even Republicans say
07:06sometimes President Trump, we don't exactly like the way he speaks. Sometimes he speaks
07:11hyperbolically. Are Canadians taking that seriously when he says Governor of Governor
07:17Trudeau, when he says we're making Canada the 51st state? Do Canadians see that as a serious
07:23threat? So so back in December, when it was first when it first came up, Canadians, the
07:30Canadian government thought it was a joke, but it has come up over and over again to
07:36the point where Canada really does see this as an existential threat to our sovereignty.
07:41There is a very big concern. Politicians are calling it dark days, a bigger crisis than
07:48COVID. And, you know, they're they're putting into place support support programs for workers
07:54doing massive amounts of diplomatic outreach to other to other allies. And yes, Canadians
08:00see it as as as America or at least this this administration, not not average Americans,
08:07but that this this administration is coming after our energy, our oil, our minerals and
08:13our water. Mark Carney, as you said, is a political outsider, largely is someone who
08:20worked at Goldman Sachs for part of his career, kind of reminiscent of Donald Trump in the
08:25way that he is a political outsider now is steering the ship in your country, so to speak.
08:30So do you think that with his leadership, it gives Canada and America the ability to
08:36reset and reset our relationship with one another?
08:41I certainly hope so. And I hope there's a willingness on both sides not to just be entrenched
08:46where we're at. I think what Carney said also over the weekend in his acceptance speech
08:51was that, you know, he Canada wants to feel some respect from the United States. And again,
08:57that's not on a tariff piece. It's with respect to those comments of annexation. And so I
09:01think until those comments are put to rest, things will remain tense. But I hope that
09:07both men and both countries can come together and forge a new relationship forward that
09:13works for everybody.
09:16It's really interesting because just two months ago, when you and I were talking, we were
09:19talking about a poll that was taken in December about the Conservative Party leader, Pierre
09:24Polly, of really trouncing Trudeau in the polls. It seems like the status quo worldwide
09:29that there was a conservative movement now with President Trump saying that Canada could
09:35be a state, say, calling the prime minister governor, threatening these tariffs, going
09:39back and forth with that. The Liberal Party seems to be surging a bit. As you said, there's
09:45this national unity. There's a general election coming up in Canada. What are people saying
09:50about that? Do you think liberals and Mark Carney have a shot here?
09:57For the first time in a couple of years, I would say, yes, the liberals have been trailing
10:02the polls. We talked about it in early January, but that's been a trend for the last two years.
10:07They haven't pulled this high since 2021. And I think what we're seeing is the progressive
10:14side, because in Canada we have more than two parties. So we also have other parties
10:18that are further left. So all of the progressive parties are kind of coming together and seeing
10:23this standing up to Donald Trump as something essential to our sovereignty and our sort
10:29of existence as a country. But also, you know, people on the farther right are moving to
10:35the to the Liberal Party because they think that Mark Carney is the sort of serious man
10:40that is needed in this moment. Peer Polyov has that populist not as very reminiscent
10:49of Trump's style of politicking. And when, you know, that's the sort of what you're confronting,
10:58that doesn't resonate as well as sort of a national unity cry when you're so you sound
11:04a lot like the person you're supposed to be standing up to.
11:08I know, at least from where I sit in America, there's whiplash when it comes to these tariffs,
11:13especially last week. I talked to guests when they were on. I talked to guests when they
11:18were off. At one point, I had an interview and the tariff policy switched. It feels like
11:23a spigot going on and off, on and off. I'm sure when you're you sitting in Canada, you
11:28feel the same way. So what are you looking out for next between now and the next tariff
11:34tit for tat between now and the general election? I can imagine it's a million things.
11:40Yeah, I think we are waiting for, you know, anything and everything and focusing on what
11:46we can control and not what on what we can't control. So focusing on expanding our trading
11:52network, shoring up our other relationships, but also hopefully working towards a solution.
11:59But yeah, it's been whiplash completely. I even think this morning, just before we started
12:04talking, the steel tariff was doubled against Canada. So things are very volatile. That
12:13could change again in a day. We don't. It's it's very, very fluid and a complete roller coaster.
12:19And to that point, it seems like the tariff was changed on a dime. The markets
12:24certainly aren't relaxed, reacting favorably to these tariffs. Is there a sense of how Canadians
12:31want to see someone negotiate with Donald Trump? Is there a sense of how you can negotiate with
12:37Donald Trump? Because I know that they want someone to be firm. I know from an American
12:42political perspective, Donald Trump doesn't want to appear weak. So how do you negotiate with that?
12:49I think it's going to be coming down much like in Trump's first administration,
12:55getting down to the nitty gritty of the what are the trade issues? What are the pain points?
13:01What can be what can we do to make sure both sides are economically prosperous? I think we
13:09really should be working and thinking North America supply chains writ large and sort of
13:15shoring us up as as a continental sort of defense and friendly allies when we know that there are
13:21many other countries that don't wish us well. We should be working together because Canada and
13:26America have been friends for a very long time and and hopefully will be for a very long time
13:31into the future. And to that point, based on you in Canada right now, based on your conversations
13:37with Canadians, is there a sense that this relationship is permanently fractured or is
13:42this just a pain point? We're going through a growing pain and America and Canada can
13:48be allies and friends once again. I think that remains to be seen how long these tariffs remain
13:56in place, how long the conversation around annexation is happening will make it very
14:03difficult to to be friends. There are other you know, there are other allied pieces, defense
14:09spending. There are pain points on both sides. So I think we there's a path back to friendship,
14:15but I think it's it's going to remain to be seen on whether and how this escalates and how both
14:21countries can sort of take a look at the larger picture and come forward with with a trade
14:27solution. Well, Stevie, I certainly always appreciate your perspective, especially you
14:33being in Canada, me being in America. Thank you so, so much. And you are welcome back anytime.
14:39Thanks for joining me. Thank you so much.