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00:00Well, we are back into warm temperatures today through Friday, well above normal.
00:04In fact, more record-breaking high temperatures.
00:06And we could be dealing with our first severe weather of the season late Friday,
00:09followed by snow for many on Saturday.
00:22So temperatures yesterday were cooler, but still mid-40s,
00:26about 3-4 degrees above average actually here across central and southern Minnesota.
00:30And we are back in the warm-up here in earnest.
00:34Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s for the Twin Cities today.
00:36Probably some low 60s again in southwestern Minnesota.
00:39Even warmer readings on the way tomorrow.
00:41We're going to be well into the 60s across all of southern Minnesota.
00:43In fact, some 70-degree readings again in western Minnesota.
00:47And we are on track for our first 70-degree reading of the season
00:50probably in the Twin Cities here on Friday.
00:53We're going to be as low to middle 70s possible across the southern third of the state.
00:57And that will bring us into record territory on Friday.
01:00The record high is 73.
01:02We may tie that or break it or come close to it.
01:04That was set in 2012.
01:06Which some of you might remember 2012, the warmest March on record.
01:08That was the year we hit 80 degrees on St. Patrick's Day.
01:11The earliest ever recorded 80-degree reading.
01:14Our next storm system is going to take advantage of some of that warmth and extra energy too.
01:18Right now it's sitting in the Pacific still.
01:20This deep trough just west of California is going to bring them some much needed moisture.
01:24But also as it moves across the Rockies, it's going to develop into a cutoff upper level low.
01:30It will be swinging up towards Minnesota.
01:32This cold air aloft creates instability.
01:34It will plow up a lot of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico.
01:36And the Weather Service is making some parallels to our earliest tornado outbreak.
01:42This storm system has many features that are very similar to what we had
01:47in our March tornado outbreak of 2017.
01:50So not saying we're going to get tornadoes, but there are some interesting parallels there to that system.
01:55And the Storm Prediction Center does have the Day 3 outlook.
01:58Slight risk right up to the southeastern suburbs of the Twin Cities.
02:01Including Rochester, Elbert, Lee.
02:03Marginal risk for the Twin Cities.
02:05So that is pretty interesting here for the middle of March.
02:09This is the lightning density forecast for 8 p.m. Friday evening from the European model.
02:14Could have some thunderstorms rolling through.
02:16So again, those dew points will really be surging northward.
02:19Fifties dew points, not impressive for the middle of summer.
02:22But by March standards, that is some pretty humid air for March 14th in Minnesota.
02:28And that's going to lead to instability.
02:30We're going to have convective available potential energy.
02:32Or just juice available for storms all the way from the Gulf of Mexico into Minnesota.
02:36And enough shear and organization potentially in the storms to create some tornadoes.
02:41Now the best significant tornado parameter is well south of Minnesota.
02:44But we do see a little bit of that nudging into the southeastern part of the state.
02:47So rain Friday evening.
02:49Thunderstorms, rain overnight.
02:51And then as colder air wraps in, we're going to see that rain turn to snow in western Minnesota first.
02:56And by the time we're cold enough late Saturday for snow, most of the moisture might be done.
03:01So snowfall not looking particularly menacing here in the Twin Cities.
03:06But western Minnesota we could see that as temperatures drop through the day.
03:09We're going to drop from a high in the 50s before the sunrise on Saturday to freezing by Saturday evening.
03:16So potent cold front with that.
03:18A lot of wind too.
03:19Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 40 miles an hour.
03:21Wind gusts in the Red River Valley could be over 50 miles an hour on Saturday.
03:25So a lot of wind.
03:27And wind-driven snow in western and northwestern Minnesota.
03:31The model is still favoring western Minnesota for any significant snow.
03:35Doesn't mean we won't get a coating or maybe an inch or two potentially in the Twin Cities.
03:39But best chance of anything significant is looking like it's going to be in the western part of the state.
03:43And colder behind that.
03:45Upper 30s Sunday.
03:4620s to the north.
03:48But another short-lived cold snap here by Monday.
03:51We're back in the 50s, maybe even low 60s in southern Minnesota.
03:54And temperatures overall next week, well not 70 degrees, look to be generally at or above normal.
04:01So 56 today.
04:03Already back into warmer readings.
04:05Those are about 15 degrees above normal.
04:0864 tomorrow.
04:09And then Friday, our first 70 of the season.
04:1272, maybe warmer.
04:14Again, the record is 73 set in 2012.
04:17But the other bigger story is the fact that we could see some thunderstorms Friday evening.
04:21Potentially even a couple severe ones.
04:23Falling temperatures Saturday.
04:25We'll kind of be dry-slotted in the morning.
04:27I think a break.
04:28But then we'll see more rain and snow showers later in the day.
04:30Saturday, falling temperatures.
04:32Colder, brighter Sunday.
04:34And then warmer again for early next week.
04:36We're also watching a midweek system next week that could bring rain and snow to the region.