The Descent of Pakistan: The Baloch Train Hijack is a grim portent of the multiple internal conflicts that Pakistan faces, which threaten its very stability as a nation.
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00:00How coercive is Pakistan? How dangerous is it?
00:02Is it teetering towards the edge in some senses?
00:05You know, I've never seen Pakistan so bad.
00:07In all the years that I've been watching Pakistan, I've not seen it so bad.
00:10You know, the insurgencies have now, the Baloch and the Pashtun have,
00:16you know, escalated very significantly.
00:19The global terror report index showed that Pakistan is number two in the terror index.
00:24Last month, there were 121 fatalities because of terrorism.
00:29A large number of them were security forces.
00:32So the security situation is deteriorating.
00:35Economically, Pakistan is on a very slippery slope.
00:38Despite the IMF bailout, they have huge problems of the economy.
00:42Politically, there is so much of polarization
00:46that the PTI and the PMLN, the ruling government, can't sit and talk to each other.
00:50The other thing that has happened about 15 days ago,
00:53the various Baloch groups got together and decided
00:56that they will now fight in a united manner,
00:59in a coordinated manner, rather than doing individual actions.
01:03And they would fight in the name of the Baloch National Army.
01:06And all of them will come together and have coordinated action.
01:10I mean, I suspect, I don't have any information,
01:14but this could be the first action,
01:17coordinated action that has been taken by the various Baloch groups
01:21to show that this is actually working.
01:24Now, in case the various groups can come together,
01:27it will be a huge force multiplier and will be that much of a headache.
01:31It's so tragic that a term called half-widows
01:34have come into parlance in Balochistan
01:37because a woman whose husband is missing for 15 years
01:40doesn't know whether she's a widow or she's married.
01:44You know, and so there are hundreds of cases like that.
01:47So the civil society movement led by women
01:49is a very strong reflection of the fact
01:52that there are so many missing persons now
01:55that if they don't protest, sitting at home is no longer an option.
01:59Army's power did not depend on guns and bullets.
02:03The army's power was dependent on the aura that the army had,
02:08that it was some kind of a mythical entity
02:09which would take care of the people when they were down and out.
02:13You know, what would succor them when they were facing a crisis.
02:18That aura has been seriously damaged.
02:23Nothing But The Truth.
02:25Hello, I'm Raj Chengup of India Today
02:27and your host for Nothing But The Truth.
02:30This is my weekly X-ray of key issues that concern you
02:33to give you perspectives and clarity on them
02:36without holding back on the truth.
02:38In a shocking development in Pakistan on March 11th,
02:42Balochistan rebels hijacked the Jaffar Express
02:46that was travelling from Quetta to Peshawar
02:49and held 400 train passengers hostage.
02:53They were demanding the release of Baloch prisoners and civilians
02:57allegedly kidnapped by Pakistan security forces in the past.
03:01They threatened to blow up the entire train
03:04if their demand was not fulfilled in the next 40 hours.
03:08The siege of the Jaffar Express lasted for 30 hours
03:11before Pakistan armed forces killed 33 rebels
03:15and rescued the hostages, but at least 21 passengers
03:18and four security personnel were killed during the siege.
03:22In all, 58 people died and this included the rebels as well.
03:28The hijacking of the Jaffar Express is a grim reminder
03:31of the multiple sources of internal conflict
03:35that Pakistan faces which threatens its very stability.
03:40These include not only ethnic rebellions
03:42as we've seen with the Baloch issue,
03:44but also major political protests
03:46that have swept the country in recent months.
03:49So in this episode of Nothing But The Truth,
03:51we will analyse the Balochistan train hijacking,
03:54the reasons behind it and its impact,
03:56apart from looking at the overall threat
03:58to Pakistan's stability and cohesion.
04:06To help us do that, let me at this stage
04:08welcome top security expert Tilak Devashar.
04:12He has written four widely acclaimed books on Pakistan,
04:15including one on the Balochistan Conundrum as its title.
04:18Devashar was a former special secretary
04:20in the Research and Analysis Wing or RAW,
04:22India's famed foreign intelligence agency,
04:25and currently he's a member
04:27of the country's National Security Advisory Board.
04:30So Tilak Devashar, welcome to Nothing But The Truth.
04:34Thank you so much for having me on your show, Raj.
04:37It's a pleasure to be here.
04:39Thanks Tilak for being here.
04:41But before we get into the analysis or your analysis,
04:44just a few facts about Balochistan
04:46that we'd like to put on the table.
04:48Balochistan occupies 44% of Pakistan's territory
04:52and is more than twice the size of Uttar Pradesh
04:54and a little bigger than France.
04:56Yet with a population of 15 million,
04:58only 15 million, it accounts for barely 6%
05:01of Pakistan's population of 240 million.
05:05Now in terms of political representation
05:07at the National Assembly,
05:08Balochistan has only 20 seats
05:10in the 336-strong National Assembly.
05:13The least number of seats
05:15when you look at the other provinces.
05:17In contrast, Punjab province has 173,
05:20Sindh 75, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or KPK has 55 seats.
05:24So as you can see, it's highly underrepresented
05:27in terms of both its size and the population that it has.
05:30After the province was annexed by Pakistan in 1948,
05:34six months after partition from India in August 1947,
05:39Balochistan has remained the country's poorest region.
05:42This despite being rich in natural resources
05:45such as coal, gold, copper, and even gas,
05:48which generates substantial revenue
05:51for the federal Pakistan government.
05:54Balochistan is also home to one of Pakistan's
05:57major deep sea ports at Gwadar,
05:59which has been in the news
06:00because this forms a crucial trade corridor
06:03for the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,
06:08CPIC as it is known.
06:10The ultimate aim that China has
06:11is to link southwestern China to the Arabian Sea
06:14through Pakistan through the Gwadar port.
06:17Baloch nationalists or separatists have alleged
06:20that the Pakistan state has neglected their people
06:23even as they exploited the province's resources.
06:26This has over the years triggered separatist movements
06:30and armed rebellions.
06:32There have been five such major violent uprisings
06:36in Balochistan against the Pakistan state
06:39in the past 77 years.
06:41So Tilak Diveshwar, given the background outlined,
06:44are you seeing this as the sixth such insurgency
06:48or major insurgency by the Balochistan rebels?
06:51And how serious do you view the current uprising?
06:54Actually, this is a continuation of the fifth.
06:56You know, the fifth insurgency began in 2004
07:00and it has been carrying on with various sort of ups and downs.
07:04It picked up strength when Akbar Bukti was killed in 2006.
07:08And this is a continuation of that.
07:10This last incident of the train, you know,
07:14has certainly escalated the insurgency
07:17and the struggle for Baloch independence.
07:20So I would see it as a continuation
07:21of the fifth insurgency,
07:23but an upscaling of the level of the activities
07:28that the, you know, the incidents
07:30that the Baloch insurgents,
07:32actually we should call them freedom fighters,
07:33you know, which have done for the sake
07:36of Baloch independence.
07:38Now, if you look at that attack,
07:39given the fact that in the past
07:41there have been attacks by the Baloch rebels,
07:44or if you'd like to call them freedom fighters,
07:46but if you look at the past,
07:47this is probably an escalation
07:49that has never been seen before.
07:52I mean, train hijacking,
07:53we've heard of train bombings.
07:54We've, you know, in Nigeria,
07:56there've been also bombs
07:57which have killed a lot of people
07:59and in the past in Spain and other places there.
08:01But the train hijack,
08:02isn't this something that has really,
08:04you know, escalated the entire rebellion that is on?
08:09Absolutely, you know,
08:10I haven't in all my years
08:11that I've been covering Pakistan,
08:13I haven't come across a similar incident.
08:16In fact, as I say,
08:17the closest was that incident
08:19in the movie Sholay,
08:21you know, when the decoys tried to hijack a train
08:24and which is warded off by Jai and Veeru.
08:27Apparently there was some hijacking
08:28in the Netherlands way back in 1977.
08:31But in our part of the world,
08:33this is the first of its kind.
08:35And henceforth, you know,
08:36when you talk about Balochistan,
08:38it will be pre Jaffer Express
08:40and post Jaffer Express.
08:42So it's a massive thing
08:45because to stop a train, a moving train,
08:48you know, you really have to have coordination.
08:50You have to have timing,
08:51you have to have the intelligence
08:53and you have to have the means,
08:54the wherewithal
08:55to be able to stop a moving train.
08:57So I think it's really a remarkable event
09:00that has taken place.
09:02Of course, you know,
09:03in terms of terror attacks,
09:04certainly, you know,
09:07one must condemn it
09:08because of the fact that
09:09a lot of innocent people
09:10get killed in this crossfire.
09:11But if you look at the,
09:14you know, who are the people behind it?
09:16The claim is that
09:17there is a Baloch Liberation Army
09:19or the BLA.
09:20Who are the main leaders
09:21who are doing this?
09:22And how come in the last couple of years?
09:24You said this is a continuation
09:25that has happened
09:26since the fifth insurgency that's there.
09:28It's a continuation of that.
09:29How has it regained ground?
09:31What are the main reasons?
09:33You see, the earlier,
09:35the earlier insurgencies in Balochistan,
09:38the one in 1948,
09:40which started off
09:41after the forcible accession of Qalat
09:44in 1958, 73, 77.
09:47These were tribal-based insurgencies
09:49led by one or two tribal leaders
09:52in the defense and protection
09:53of their tribal lands
09:55and for the defense
09:57of what's called the Sardari Nizam.
09:59But insurgency in Balochistan has evolved.
10:02And the last decade
10:04or 10 or 15 years,
10:05you'll find that common Baloch,
10:08people who don't belong
10:09to a Kabila as such,
10:11middle-class Baloch,
10:13you know, they have started joining the ranks
10:15of the freedom fighters
10:16because they realize
10:18that, you know,
10:19the kind of exploitation
10:22that Pakistan has been doing
10:24and their living standards are so poor
10:26as compared to the rest of Pakistan.
10:28And then you have this policy
10:30of enforced disappearances
10:31when the Pakistan army comes
10:33and picks up young boys
10:34and then their tortured bodies are dumped
10:37or sometimes the bodies
10:38are also not even found.
10:40So they find that
10:41if they are to survive,
10:43if they are to keep a place for themselves,
10:46you know, in the country
10:46or in the world,
10:47they will have to pick up the gun.
10:49Unfortunate, but that is what has happened.
10:52So the nature of insurgency has changed.
10:54Now the BLA, which was earlier,
10:57you know, what do you call the Mari
11:00tribal group,
11:01has now expanded all over Balochistan.
11:04In August last year,
11:05they carried out attacks in 11 districts,
11:08you know, which was totally pan-Balochistan.
11:10So even now,
11:12like all insurgent groups,
11:13the leadership is very shadowy.
11:15At one time, you could say,
11:17yes, the eldest Mari son,
11:19Baloch Mari at one time,
11:21the son of Kher Baksh Mari,
11:22he was the leader.
11:24But thereafter,
11:24and now that it has expanded
11:26to all over Balochistan
11:28and middle-class Baloch have joined it,
11:30you can't identify
11:31that who is the leader
11:32and what is the leadership profile.
11:34So it is just that
11:36it is the most active Baloch group.
11:40But then the other thing that has happened
11:41about 15 days ago,
11:43the various Baloch groups got together
11:45and decided that they will now fight
11:47in a united manner,
11:48in a coordinated manner,
11:50rather than doing individual actions.
11:52And they would fight in the name
11:53of the Baloch National Army.
11:55Then all of them will come together
11:57and have coordinated action.
12:00I mean, I suspect,
12:02I don't have any information,
12:04but this could be the first action,
12:06coordinated action
12:07that has been taken
12:08by the various Baloch groups
12:11to show that this is actually working.
12:14In case the various groups
12:15can come together,
12:16it will be a huge force multiplier
12:19and will be that much of a headache
12:20for the Pakistan army.
12:21Yeah.
12:22When you look at some of the leaders,
12:24of course, you know,
12:25India being a victim
12:26of terrorist attacks,
12:28obviously, you know,
12:30any form of violence is condemnable,
12:34whether, you know,
12:35of course, taking the gun,
12:36whether what you're talking
12:37of the Baloch people being,
12:40you know, held hostage
12:42by the state itself or missing, dying.
12:45No one knows what the truth is about that.
12:47A whole lot of leaders have been missing
12:49and people have been picked up.
12:50That is condemnable if it's true.
12:52And so also the terror attacks
12:54that have happened recently,
12:55particularly the train attack,
12:56is condemnable.
12:57But if you take a look
12:58at some of the names
12:59that is being talked about,
13:00Bashir Zai Baloch is said
13:02to be the current leader of the BLA,
13:04whether he's part of this.
13:06He's also heading
13:07the Baloch National Army,
13:08as you talk about,
13:09is not known as yet.
13:10But they say that he's part
13:12of the mid-40s.
13:13And you're right.
13:13When you talk to the fact
13:15that they are not
13:16from the traditional families
13:17that were there earlier.
13:19Apparently, he earned a diploma
13:21from a polytechnical college
13:22in Quetta.
13:23And then he's part of that
13:25Majid Brigade.
13:27That is supposedly
13:28the Suicide Squad.
13:29I don't know.
13:29How true are these?
13:30What is the kind of information
13:31you have about the new leaders
13:32that have been thrown up
13:34in the last decade or so?
13:36You know, a lot of them
13:37among them are highly educated.
13:40They're doctors.
13:41They're engineers, you know.
13:43And they are the nascent middle class,
13:45the growing middle class.
13:46Right.
13:47And that's one of the reasons
13:48why they are being targeted.
13:50Because, you know,
13:50as soon as you have
13:51an educated middle class
13:52taking the leadership role,
13:54that makes...
13:56Because Baloch is a very
13:56conservative society,
13:57very few, you know, people,
14:01because they've been kept like that.
14:03So the Pakistan Army
14:05has been targeting such leadership.
14:07In fact, one of the most
14:10significant groups,
14:13militant groups is a doctor.
14:15You know, Dr. Allah Nazir.
14:16He was picked up, badly tortured.
14:18He barely survived.
14:19He couldn't walk.
14:20He was so badly tortured.
14:22And his is the most,
14:24what do you call it?
14:25I think, violent.
14:28No, I wouldn't say violent,
14:29but certainly the most effective
14:31militant group that there is.
14:33So once you do this
14:36to the emerging middle class,
14:38you know, they're going to hit back too.
14:40You know, they're not going to just take it,
14:42take it lying down.
14:43And now on the other side of the coin is
14:46that you'll find
14:48the civil society movement
14:49in Balochistan has come to the fore.
14:52And it's being led by women.
14:54Right.
14:54And the reason is that
14:56so many of their fathers,
14:58brothers and sons have been picked up,
15:00have gone missing.
15:03That there are very few boys
15:04who are left who can protest on the roads,
15:08because if they do,
15:09they'll be picked up too.
15:10So, and in fact, Tilak,
15:12if you mentioned about female,
15:15you know, I was coming to that.
15:17I was coming to that.
15:18Yeah, there is that suicide bomber
15:20Shari Baloch,
15:21who I think who targeted Chinese nationals
15:23in Karachi.
15:23There have been four.
15:24Yeah, there have been four.
15:26There have been four such cases now.
15:28The recent one was the attack in Kalab.
15:30So, they have started protesting
15:33and you must have heard the name of Dr.
15:35She's a medical doctor.
15:36Dr. Mehrang Baloch.
15:37She has been nominated
15:38for the Nobel Peace Prize.
15:41They have been protesting.
15:42And it is so tragic
15:43that a term called half widows
15:46have come into parlance in Balochistan
15:49because a woman whose husband
15:50is missing for 15 years,
15:52doesn't know whether she's a widow
15:53or she's married.
15:56You know, and so there are
15:57hundreds of cases like that.
15:59And when they went to protest in Islamabad,
16:01they were treated with cold water,
16:04you know, and almost physically lifted out
16:07and sent back to Qatar.
16:09So, the civil society movement led by women
16:12is a very strong reflection of the fact
16:14that there are so many missing persons now
16:17that if they don't protest,
16:19sitting at home is no longer an option.
16:22Wow.
16:23So, and that's why people
16:25are joining the militancy.
16:27And therefore, Pakistan, in some senses,
16:29we accuse Pakistan of, you know,
16:32fostering terror attacks on our soil.
16:34Pakistan is getting a bit of its own medicine
16:36and trying to understand why terror
16:39shouldn't be employed by anyone across it.
16:41They will come back to bite them
16:43as it seems to have done now.
16:45Yeah, absolutely.
16:46You know, in both these tribal societies,
16:48whether it's the Pashtun or the Baloch,
16:50the concept of revenge or badal
16:53is a very strong concept.
16:54You know, it's a fundamental concept,
16:56whether it's Pashtun or whether it's Baloch.
17:00And after having done so much of brutality
17:03in Balochistan to think that the people
17:06will not react and will be happy
17:09with a few crumbs that you throw on them.
17:11I mean, they're living in the outer space
17:15or something.
17:16The Baloch are going to react.
17:17They are reacting.
17:19And today, the armed groups have got access
17:21to very sophisticated weaponry,
17:23the kind of weaponry which was left behind
17:26by the Americans in Afghanistan.
17:28And that has come to them
17:30through the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.
17:32So they've got night vision scopes.
17:35They've got thermal imaging.
17:36They've got sniper rifles.
17:37And they can match the Pakistan army
17:40probably bullet by bullet.
17:42Of course, they don't have any air power
17:43or they don't have artillery.
17:44But certainly in small weapons,
17:47they can match the Pakistan army.
17:48That's why the nature of attacks
17:51have been so deadly
17:52and have been so successful
17:54in the last two to three years.
17:56Now, that's a good point to come
17:57to the other rebellion
17:59that has been happening in Pakistan.
18:01There's not the only one that is there.
18:03Balochistan is one of the major ones
18:04that has, you know,
18:06has sort of gained momentum in recent years.
18:10So has, if you look at the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan,
18:13the TTP front,
18:15where after what happened in Afghanistan,
18:18that seems to be one of the big domestic challenges
18:20that's there,
18:22especially from the fact that,
18:24you know, given the unstable majority,
18:27that political majority is there.
18:28How serious is that threat?
18:30On one side, you have the Baloch threat
18:32that is happening.
18:33And the other side, you do have the TTP
18:35and the entire, you know,
18:36Afghan border has become hot over there.
18:39You know, the TTP threat is very serious.
18:42It's interesting, you know,
18:43if you compare the Baloch
18:44and the Pashtun,
18:46the Baloch are fighting for independence.
18:48They want to break away
18:51and create a separate country of their own.
18:54The TTP is not fighting for separation.
18:56The TTP is fighting to impose Sharia
18:59first in FATA, then in KPK,
19:01and then in the rest of Pakistan.
19:03So, you know, there is that
19:05very interesting distinction to be made.
19:07And some respects the TTP insurgencies
19:10far more dangerous for Pakistan,
19:12apart from imposing Sharia.
19:15There are 31 million Pashtuns in Pakistan.
19:18There are about 15 million Pashtuns in Afghanistan.
19:22Neither on both sides
19:23do they accept the Durand Line,
19:24which is this artificial line
19:26created by the British,
19:28initially meant as spheres of influence.
19:30And at the time of partition,
19:32just by a turn of the phrase,
19:35they converted it into an international border.
19:37Now, the TTP doesn't accept the Durand Line.
19:40The Taliban don't accept the Durand Line.
19:42And both of them are pressing against it.
19:45So, you know, there is a kind of a pincer movement
19:48of the Pashtuns from both sides of the Durand Line.
19:51And I have written about this
19:53and I've spoken about it,
19:55that if Pakistan does not handle this matter imaginatively,
19:59it could really get caught in this pincer
20:01of the Pashtuns from both sides.
20:03If you ask a Pashtun nationalist,
20:06where should the border of Afghanistan be?
20:08He says it should be in Attock.
20:10You know, in local language,
20:12it is one side is Afghanistan,
20:14the other side is Hindustan.
20:15Where did Pakistan come from?
20:17You know, because the whole KPK province
20:22and Fatah and up to Quetta and north of Quetta
20:25was all forcibly taken from Afghanistan.
20:29First the Treaty of Gandamak in 1876
20:31and then the Durand Line Agreement.
20:33And the Afghans have rescinded this
20:36in 1949 Loya Jirga.
20:39And no Afghan government since 1949
20:42has accepted the Durand Line
20:44or that there is a border that is not defined.
20:48So, that is a huge problem.
20:49So, in many respects,
20:50it is a far more deeper problem for Pakistan
20:54dealing with the Pashtuns
20:56than it is dealing with the Baloch.
20:57Because the Baloch territory is there.
20:59Right.
20:59They are fighting for separatism.
21:01But here, they are fighting for...
21:03No, no, please finish yours.
21:05Yeah.
21:06So, here they are going for,
21:08you know, merging with the Afghan Pashtuns
21:12or creating a separate Pashtunistan.
21:14We don't know what the final outcome will be,
21:16but they don't accept the border.
21:18Right.
21:19Now, I think this is a good point also
21:21to look at the fact of
21:23the danger of Pakistan's cohesion,
21:25the instability that is there.
21:27And let's analyze that aspect
21:28because if you take a look at the political side,
21:31we saw an unstable majority
21:33take charge of the parliament and government
21:36in last year, in February 2024.
21:40There's been major political unrest after that
21:43because no party gained a majority
21:45in that general election.
21:47And if you know Imran Khan's
21:48Pakistan Tariq-e-Insaf or PTI,
21:52despite being barred from the elections,
21:54actually emerged as the single largest party
21:56and the coalition of the Pakistan Muslim League,
22:00Nawaz and the Pakistan's People Party
22:02that formed the government.
22:03But that remains unstable.
22:05Now, how much, and if you recall,
22:06in November 2024,
22:08there was a lot of violence
22:09when the PTI organized the,
22:11what they call the final call of protest.
22:13And this was when Imran Khan's wife,
22:17Bushra Bibi also led that whole agitation.
22:20What would you say would be the,
22:22you know, the political implications
22:24of this entire,
22:26the instability of Pakistan,
22:30political instability that's there.
22:32And given the fact that you have
22:33ethnic rebellions going on,
22:35how coercive is Pakistan?
22:36How dangerous is it?
22:37Is it teetering towards the edge in some senses?
22:40You know, I've never seen Pakistan so bad
22:42in all the years that I've been watching Pakistan.
22:44I've not seen it so bad.
22:45You know, the insurgencies have now,
22:48the Baloch and the Pashtun have,
22:51you know, escalated very significantly.
22:54The global terror report index
22:56showed that Pakistan is number two
22:58in the terror index.
22:59Last month, there were 121 fatalities
23:02because of terrorism.
23:03Bulk of them, or a large number of them
23:05were security forces.
23:07So the security situation is deteriorating.
23:10Economically, Pakistan is on a very slippery slope.
23:13Despite the IMF bailout,
23:14they have huge problems of the economy.
23:17Politically, there is so much of polarization
23:21that the PTI and the PMLN,
23:23the ruling government,
23:24can't sit and talk to each other.
23:26There is so much of polarization,
23:27especially because of Imran Khan.
23:30That's one part of it.
23:31This is what you see on the surface.
23:33But I have always maintained in my first book
23:36that what is really going wrong with Pakistan
23:38are the deeper issues.
23:40You know, the issue of water, for example.
23:42Pakistan is running out of water.
23:43And there is no life without water.
23:45And Pakistan's own think tanks have said
23:48that Pakistan is going to become
23:50an absolute water scarce country,
23:52which is drought-like conditions
23:54in parts of the country very soon,
23:56within this decade.
23:58Education.
23:5850% of Pakistan's children
24:00don't go to primary school.
24:03If they don't go to primary school,
24:04they won't go to secondary.
24:06They won't go to a higher school,
24:07let alone university.
24:09And in a globally technological world,
24:12how are they going to survive?
24:14Population is growing at about 2.55%.
24:17They don't have enough food.
24:20At one time, it was the breadbasket
24:22of the subcontinent.
24:23But today, they're not growing enough food
24:24because of mismanagement.
24:26They've had to import a million,
24:28two million, three million tons of wheat.
24:30And the population in the next 10, 15 years
24:32is going to go up to 300 million.
24:34How are they going to feed the population?
24:36So these are the underlying issues
24:38which nobody in Pakistan
24:40and the leadership class is looking at it.
24:43Think tanks are, yes.
24:45They have right people in Pakistan too.
24:47But nobody is looking at among the leadership.
24:49They are saying, let my tenure be over.
24:52Let me go out successfully
24:54and go and buy a house in London
24:56or buy a house in Toronto
24:58or somewhere in the US
25:00and kick the can down the road.
25:02But somewhere, it's going to come home to roost.
25:04So if you add the security economy
25:07and political situation
25:08to these underlying issues,
25:10it is a witch's brew.
25:11It's a very, very adverse kind of situation
25:15for any country to be in.
25:17Now, that's what I wanted to come to.
25:18When you look at the army,
25:20the Pakistan army,
25:21which generally has controlled affairs in Pakistan,
25:24despite the fact that democracy,
25:25there have been democratic governments
25:27that have been elected.
25:29Currently, the army is being led
25:30by General Asim Munir,
25:32who's been in office since November 2022.
25:35Now, and if you recall,
25:36the PTI had actually instigated a revolt
25:39against the army, unheard in the past,
25:42but it has happened.
25:43How credible is the army now?
25:45How much in control is the army?
25:47And do you think,
25:49if this situation comes to an even sorrier pass,
25:54you could see virtually the army
25:55try to take over Pakistan again?
25:58You see, the army's power,
26:00army has been extremely powerful.
26:02Army's power did not depend on guns and bullets.
26:05The army's power was dependent on the aura
26:08that the army had,
26:10that it was some kind of a mythical entity
26:12which would take care of the people
26:14when they were down and out.
26:15You know, what would succor them
26:17when they were facing a crisis.
26:20Right.
26:20That aura has been seriously damaged.
26:23That prestige of the army
26:25has been seriously damaged
26:27thanks to one man, Ibrahim Khan.
26:29You know, he has gone after the army chiefs especially
26:33and created hostility against the army,
26:37even in Punjab,
26:39even among the army ranks.
26:40Now, this does not mean a lot of people
26:42seem to think that if Imran Khan is popular
26:45in the army,
26:46that one brigade is going to march
26:49and attack another brigade
26:50or one division is going to go and pick up weapons
26:54and fight against the army chief.
26:55No, I'm not saying that.
26:56But there is a sense of support for Imran Khan.
27:02And that is the damage.
27:03So, while the chain of command still holds,
27:09but I think that is where the aura
27:11and the mystique that the army had
27:13of power and of control has been damaged.
27:16There are people today in Pakistan
27:18who are no longer willing to accept
27:20what the army says as gospel.
27:22Whereas the army continues to believe
27:24that what it says is gospel.
27:26So, conflict is inherent in the situation.
27:30Now, that's a very dangerous thing
27:31because the army's power
27:33also is dependent on the support of the people.
27:36If the people don't support it,
27:38especially in Punjab,
27:40you know, where the homeland of the army is,
27:42where bulk of the recruitment comes from,
27:44then there is a very serious problem.
27:47Now, let us look at that aspect
27:50and let's come right back to the Baloch
27:52and the other rebellion that's happening across there.
27:55How much of the army's credibility has been dented
27:58by the fact that you can have
27:59this whole hijacking of a train,
28:01which means also questions the intelligence
28:03available with the Pakistan army
28:04or the security forces to put it down
28:07long before it happened as it does,
28:09as well as we're seeing in the TTP on the other border,
28:13you know, causing a lot of trouble for them.
28:16Is there a sense that the army is also losing control
28:19apart from the sheen that it's lost
28:22with the political establishment taking them on?
28:25Has this in some senses dented
28:26the army's full control of Pakistan?
28:30It has certainly added to it
28:31because, you know, when people see
28:34the first duty of the army
28:37is to protect the citizens.
28:40You know, when you see the figures of terrorism
28:41and the number of people who have died
28:43and bulk of which are Pakistani security forces,
28:46the army, paramilitary and the police.
28:49So people say that if you cannot defend yourself,
28:51then how will you defend us?
28:54If you see the figures of 2004,
28:57you know, about 1200 casualties in a year
29:02of security forces, security personnel.
29:04So people ask, what is the army doing?
29:06What are we paying the army for?
29:08And then you see the army chief.
29:10He's talking about green Pakistan initiative
29:13of taking out six canals in the Cholistan desert
29:17or talking about the special investment
29:21facilitation council.
29:22But that's not his job.
29:24You know, you have an entire government
29:25who's supposed to do that.
29:26From what you are saying, Tilak,
29:28if you look at the fact of the connection
29:31that could be there between the Baloch rebels
29:36and the TTP and the kind of internal turmoil
29:39that is there, the army losing its sheen
29:43and the fact that politically,
29:44the instability is there,
29:45the political establishment challenging the army.
29:48Do you think, you know, we've seen rebellions happen,
29:52people's rebellions happen in Sri Lanka, in Bangladesh.
29:56Do you see a similar situation happening
29:58where you could see a complete collapse of law and order
30:01and, you know, a complete rebellion across Pakistan?
30:06You see, it is certainly possible,
30:07you know, a wild swan event takes place,
30:10black swan event, sorry.
30:12But so far, Pakistan does not have
30:14a tradition of street protests.
30:16The only time people have protested
30:18are political protests, you know, against Ayub Khan
30:21or the movement for democracy against Zia.
30:24Despite the economic conditions being so bad today,
30:27people say, you know, they can either feed their children
30:30or they can send them to school,
30:32electricity is so expensive.
30:33Despite all that, people have not come out openly
30:36on the streets to protest.
30:38Besides, Pakistan doesn't have a tradition
30:40of student protests like, you know,
30:42what happened in Bangladesh.
30:45So I think the situation will really have
30:47to deteriorate even further.
30:50But my worry, in fact, concern is the implosion in Pakistan
30:55because of the water situation.
30:57You know, that is an immediate threat
31:00and you cannot rectify it within a couple of years.
31:03You know, it's a very, very long-term thing
31:05and nobody's looking at that issue.
31:07And if the security situation deteriorates even further,
31:11if the TTP and the BLA and the other Baloch groups
31:14are able to come together and carry out coordinated actions
31:18in KPK and Balochistan and even in other parts of Pakistan,
31:23that is going to hit the army
31:24and impact the army very severely.
31:27Now, that brings us to India
31:28because they are our neighbour.
31:31Any instability in Pakistan will have a blow back here.
31:34We have had a ceasefire on the line of control
31:36in Kashmir since 2021.
31:38But of course, India's relations with Pakistan
31:41remain stagnant.
31:42And that's always vulnerable to crises
31:45that pose a threat to both our security
31:47as well as regional security.
31:49When it comes to some of the impact on India,
31:53what should we be watching out for?
31:55What could be the likely fallout?
31:57How should we proceed with our relations with Pakistan?
32:00You see, we need to monitor Pakistan very closely.
32:05I have a feeling that over the last year or two years
32:08or ever since the Galwan incident took place,
32:12the focus of our attention has shifted to China.
32:14A lot of the think tanks,
32:16even in the federal echelons of the government,
32:21focuses a lot on China.
32:23And Pakistan is seen as,
32:25you know, the problem has been resolved.
32:27We've taken care of Pakistan.
32:28It's in, you know, going down the tube.
32:32Look at the Pakistan's economy, security situation.
32:35And that is my concern.
32:37That's my worry.
32:38That, you know, Pakistan has a nasty habit of surprising you.
32:41I think we should not,
32:43I'm not saying focus wholly as we were doing earlier,
32:46in the 80s and the 90s,
32:47but certainly don't take your eyes off Pakistan.
32:50Monitor the different situation, the security,
32:53especially the economy, the water situation,
32:57the growing sectarianism,
32:59the growing power of the religious parties.
33:02These are the issues that we need to have specialists
33:05who will continue to monitor it.
33:08Look at the deeper trends
33:10and not just the day-to-day events.
33:12I think that is what India should really be looking out for.
33:14Very good point.
33:15I mean, of course, ironically,
33:18India has been accused of being involved
33:20in inciting Baloch rebels by Pakistan.
33:23And if you recall,
33:25Pakistan continues to cite the 2009 joint statement
33:28signed by the then Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh,
33:30with his Pakistan counterpart, Yusuf Raza Gilani,
33:34or Jilani,
33:34on the sidelines of the non-aligned movement
33:37summit at Sharm El Sheikh.
33:38I'm sure you remember that,
33:39where Dr. Manmohan Singh had agreed
33:41that India would share real-time,
33:42credible and actionable information
33:44on terrorist threats in Balochistan and other areas.
33:47That was what the agreement was.
33:49And this was after Dr. Singh claimed
33:50that India had nothing to do with Balochistan
33:52and that India's conduct was an open book
33:54and he was not afraid of discussing anything.
33:57So what do you say about Pakistan's allegation
34:00that India is instigating
34:01even the current Baloch rebels over there?
34:03You see, if you study Pakistan, right, from 1947 onwards,
34:08one trait stands out very clearly.
34:11They never accept responsibility for themselves.
34:15It's never their fault.
34:17They always externalize.
34:18It's India, it's Afghanistan,
34:21it is Israel, it is the USA.
34:24The fault lies within.
34:27Where was India supporting the 48th rebellion?
34:30Did India support the 58th rebellion?
34:32Did India support the 73, 77 rebellion?
34:35Today, because Pakistan army is not able to handle it,
34:39let me put it bluntly,
34:40Pakistan army is not able to handle
34:43either the Baloch or the Pashtuns, the TTP.
34:46They want to externalize it or tell their own people,
34:48look, we are trying but they are supporting from outside.
34:52This is coming, that is coming.
34:54The problem is yours.
34:56All these people are within the confines of your borders.
34:59How come you can't take care of it?
35:00You have such a large army.
35:01You're such a, you say the number one army in the world,
35:04the number one intelligence agency in the world.
35:07So how come you're not able to take care of them?
35:09Because they're not able to deal with the insurgency
35:12in Balochistan and KPK,
35:14so they are externalizing it,
35:16putting the fault on somebody else.
35:18The fault is within them.
35:19You see, when the, initially they said
35:22TTP was being supported by Ghani or by Karzai
35:27and India was helping through that.
35:28Now there's a Taliban government there.
35:30Yet, we are supposed to be supporting the TTP.
35:33How?
35:34The Baloch, we don't have a land border with the Baloch.
35:36How are we supporting them?
35:38And, you know, it strains the imagination.
35:42Do the Baloch or the Pashtuns need training in how to fight?
35:47See, I can understand the Mukti Baini,
35:49that is a different cattle of fish,
35:52but the Baloch and the Pashtuns are born with a gun in their hand.
35:56Who can teach them better how to fight,
35:58you know, guerrilla tactics?
36:01Right.
36:01So there is absolutely, you know,
36:03we start looking within, as I said,
36:05they try to just externalize the problem and blame it.
36:08Now, there is another instance that they cite,
36:10which is more recent,
36:12when in 2016, Kulbhushan Yadav, a former Indian naval officer,
36:16was arrested, so-called arrested in Balochistan,
36:19with Pakistan alleging that he was involved
36:22in counterintelligence operations over there.
36:24He did face, I think he was condemned to death
36:27by one of the courts,
36:29and the battle is still on to release him.
36:30What do you say about allegations that
36:33they say that he was a raw agent,
36:34and, you know, and therefore,
36:37this is a smoking gun proof that,
36:40you know, India was involved?
36:42He was a businessman who was kidnapped from Iran
36:45and brought into Pakistan.
36:47And again, look at the imagination of the Pakistanis.
36:50Do you think if at all India was to send,
36:53they would send a naval officer
36:56to teach the Baloch how to fight?
36:59If at all anybody used to be sent,
37:01it would be an army infantry officer.
37:04What's a naval officer going to do in Balochistan?
37:07I mean, you must think these things through.
37:13So that's it.
37:14As far as I'm concerned, it's a ridiculous allegation.
37:18And the poor fellow has been in custody
37:19for the last eight years.
37:20You can get him to say anything.
37:22You get him to say, yeah, you know, I killed Hitler.
37:25He will say it.
37:27You have him captive.
37:28You've tortured him so much.
37:29Right.
37:30Let's look at another aspect of it.
37:32And that's the final part of our question.
37:33This time is to look at China
37:35and the fact that it has so many assets in Balochistan
37:38and the whole CPEC that's there.
37:41How do you see China's role in this particular aspect?
37:44What does it do to that whole Belt and Road initiative
37:47that BRI that it has and its relations with Pakistan?
37:51Given the fact that China had hoped that that region,
37:54the army, Pakistan army would secure
37:57and make sure that their people have not been attacked.
37:59But we've seen a series of attacks
38:01of Chinese personnel that are working there
38:05very recently as well.
38:06And in the past four or five years,
38:07that they've escalated.
38:09What is your sense of where it is headed to there?
38:11You see, when CPEC was started,
38:13I think China built it as the key
38:20or one of the flagship projects
38:22of its BRIs, Xi Jinping's, you know, favorite
38:25BRI.
38:27And they announced $62 billion worth of investment.
38:31Actually, over the last five or six years,
38:34CPEC has petered out.
38:35You know, it has plateaued.
38:37The investment has stopped at about $22 billion.
38:40Chinese know that this is an investment
38:42which is going to go down the tube.
38:44So they're not going to risk good money
38:46over all of bad money.
38:48And the reason is that Pakistan is not able
38:50to keep up its side of the bargain.
38:52Up its side of the bargain.
38:54First of all, the deals were unrealistic.
38:56You know, the loans were given
38:58at something like 22% to 24% rate of return.
39:04Now, no project anywhere in the world
39:07can survive with this kind of rate of return.
39:10So the power plant was built undoubtedly.
39:13Chinese came and built power points,
39:14the power projects.
39:16But the electricity produced was so expensive
39:18to recover that 22% to 24% rate of return
39:22that people couldn't buy.
39:23So a lot of the power projects have run aground.
39:28And the companies which have invested
39:30want their money back.
39:32And Pakistan says we have no money to pay
39:35because they have not recovered any,
39:37recouped any cost of the capital investment
39:41by selling the electricity.
39:43So CPEC is, you know, I think has petered out.
39:46Then there is a problem of protection
39:48of Chinese personnel.
39:50There have been several incidents,
39:51you know, you mentioned,
39:52several incidents with Chinese have been targeted.
39:55And China's repeatedly telling Pakistan that,
39:58look, you better pull up your socks
39:59and provide us security.
40:02Pakistan has created two special security divisions
40:05to protect the Chinese,
40:06the Northern Division and Southern Division.
40:09And yet you find that whether it's the BLA
40:11or whether it's the TTP,
40:13they can easily target as targets of opportunity.
40:15Right.
40:16Despite them going around in bulletproof cars
40:18and convoys and all that.
40:20After all, these are humans,
40:20you know, they also want to stretch their legs.
40:23They want to go out to town, see the...
40:25So as targets of opportunities,
40:28they're being targeted.
40:29So I think China, Pakistan,
40:32the economic content of the relationship
40:35hasn't taken off in the manner
40:37that it was hoped by the Chinese,
40:39especially it won't.
40:40The political content of the relationship,
40:42the strategic content of the relationship continues
40:46because they have a common enemy
40:48and China using Pakistan
40:50as its cat's paw against India
40:52is a low cost option.
40:54So the political and the strategic content
40:56of the relationship will remain strong.
40:59But the economic content of the relationship,
41:01I think, is going now.
41:03And finally, Tilak Deveshwar,
41:07the fact that Pakistan seems on the descent,
41:10not on the ascent.
41:11You have so many internal problems that are there,
41:13apart from the ethnic rebellion that we talked about
41:16and the Baluchis and Pashtuns on one side.
41:19You have the economic situation that is deteriorated.
41:21You have the political situation that is in turmoil.
41:25And also you have the army
41:26that seemingly seems less in control
41:28of what is happening internally.
41:30Its ability seems to have diminished
41:32in controlling the internal descent
41:34as well as sorting out external issues that's there.
41:38What would you say,
41:39where would we see Pakistan move?
41:42Is it on the tipping point of falling into chaos
41:46of some sort,
41:46or where would you put it after these series of events?
41:50You see, the caveat is leadership.
41:55Today, Pakistan does not have the leadership
41:58that understands the various problems.
42:00Even if they understand, they don't have the vision
42:03how to deal with it.
42:03And even if they have the vision,
42:04they don't have the courage.
42:06Unless and until Pakistan is able
42:08to pull a rabbit out of a hat
42:10and find a leader who's not necessarily
42:14from a blue-blooded political family from Punjab,
42:18could be from any of the smaller provinces too.
42:21Unless and until they come up with leadership
42:23who can take care of these issues,
42:25which we have talked about,
42:26I think there's only one direction
42:28in which Pakistan is headed,
42:29which is going southwards.
42:31Now, how quickly it marches towards the abyss
42:35or how quickly it is able to pull itself up
42:38will depend again on the quality of the leadership.
42:41Of course, the international community
42:43won't want Pakistan to go under.
42:45Certainly in the US, China,
42:47because of the nuclear weapons
42:49and the huge pool of radicalized people
42:53that they are in Pakistan.
42:55It'll be a threat to the region.
42:57But you know, neither China nor the US
42:59can come and do anything about the water situation.
43:02It's Pakistan that has to line its canals,
43:05has to improve the water availability.
43:08So I find, I mean,
43:10I think it's a pretty grim situation.
43:14Well, and it's also bad news for India
43:16because anything that happens in Pakistan,
43:18any internal disturbance, instability
43:20has its blowback over here.
43:22But Tilak Diveshwar,
43:23thank you so much for your insights.
43:25You brought a whole lot of clarity
43:27and wisdom to our discussion.
43:28Thank you very much.
43:30Thank you for having me.
43:30I really enjoyed my conversation with you.
43:35Thank you very much.
43:36Thank you, Tilak.
43:37So thank you for being with me
43:39on this episode of Nothing But The Truth.
43:41I look forward to having you with me next week.
43:46Nothing But The Truth.