Christian Grose, political science professor at the University of Southern California, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the state of California's governor race.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter at Forbes. Joining me now is
00:07Christian Gross, political science professor at USC. Professor, thank you so much for joining
00:12me. Thank you for having me. I'm excited to speak with you about everything regarding
00:18the California gubernatorial race because it's already heating up. Former Congresswoman
00:23Katie Porter is the latest candidate to toss their hat in the ring. What do you think of
00:27her entry into the race considering it's already a crowded field? I think Katie Porter
00:34entering the race is a really big deal. I think she is one of the people who will be
00:38a potential front runner. We did a survey with USC and Cal State Long Beach last year
00:44where we polled 20 some candidates. She came up at the top, right? So I think that's evidence
00:52of name recognition already. She did run for US Senate previously. She lost. She came in
00:57third, losing to Adam Schiff, ultimately, who ended up winning the Senate seat. And so that
01:03name recognition does help drive her. I do think she has some limitations, though, right? So she
01:08has lost statewide previously. She does come in with a lead of maybe about a quarter of voters,
01:14but then that might also be a ceiling. She's got to be able to move past 25, 30 percent to be able
01:19to win. But I do think it shakes up the race quite a bit. And her entry is pretty meaningful.
01:24Let's talk about what path exactly she's carving out for herself, because you're right to your
01:29point in the Democratic field. She is the one candidate right now that has the most name
01:34recognition. And many people have seen her go viral for various different stunts in her term
01:41as Congress. She had a whiteboard at one point. She was very critical of the Trump administration.
01:46She had a few terms of Congress under her belt before, as you said, running for Senate,
01:50ultimately losing. And her campaign ad, it was two pronged. First, she was calling out President
01:55Trump directly and GOP leadership. And then second, she was saying California needs a fresh
02:00perspective. We need new blood. So what is that path? I think the message is part of the path.
02:06I mean, so to win in California, it's a very Democratic state. Trump is not very popular
02:10in California. One of the best strategies is to attack Trump. And so her attacks on Trump
02:17is one of the areas that I think could work for her. But it's also something all the other
02:20Democrats are going to be doing, too. So it's not going to distinguish her. I think her second part
02:25of the message where she's trying to say, I'm new, she actually got elected to Congress relatively
02:31recently, as opposed to a lot of other Democrats who are running, who've been in politics for much
02:35longer. I do think among Democrats, if you look at surveys, Democratic voters, there is an attempt
02:42to try to find some younger, fresher faces, Gen X age instead of boomers, even younger than that.
02:51So I think she's trying to appeal to the younger base. I do think that she faces a few limitations
02:56in the sense that she's carved out this space as someone who's sort of an attack person against
03:05Trump, who does have a little bit of experience, but not a lot, who doesn't take PAC money.
03:13But I think she's got to balance sort of the Bernie Sanders wing of the party and then the
03:19Hillary Clinton slash Kamala Harris wing of the party in terms of getting votes. And I do wonder
03:24if she might be a little... I think it's going to be hard for her. She's going to need to try
03:28to do that to expand her base. Do you think she's going to be considered too progressive? Because
03:35as you said, California is a blue state. It's a liberal state. Haven't seen a Republican governor
03:39in over a decade. But we did see people, a lot of celebrities, including celebrities that you
03:46would think would be liberal, have have supported liberal ideas before, calling out vocally
03:52California's Democratic leadership over the California wildfires. Do you think that you're
03:57going to see a shift to more moderate left? Do you think you're going to see a shift in California
04:02to perhaps even a Republican? Or is that just a Republican's pipe dream?
04:07I think the chances of a Republican getting elected governor is really low. I think that
04:12especially among the candidates who are talking about running, the only kind of Republican who
04:17could win in a state like California would have to be somebody like Arnold Schwarzenegger, who
04:22is pro-climate, pro-environment and socially liberal and financially more conservative.
04:29But the Republicans aren't like that who are running. The Republicans are much more,
04:33you know, what I would say are more MAGA, more, you know, very conservative and right-wing and
04:38just out of step with the majority of the state. So I don't see Republicans doing well. Now,
04:42there is a strategy in the primary where some of the Republican candidates are going to try
04:47to get the sort of conservative base, the same way Porter's got about 25 percent support.
04:52You know, there is still a third, even up to 40 percent of the state when you factor in some
04:57independents who link Republican who want to vote for Republicans. So the Republicans in the primary
05:01are going to try to be the Republican choice. And then Katie Porter and other Democrats are
05:06going to try to get the Democratic choice. And we have an open primary where the top two candidates,
05:12regardless of party, win. So it makes it a little bit more unpredictable on those strategies.
05:17But the chances of a Republican winning, I think, is really slim, very slim. A Democrat,
05:23who's maybe a little more center left or a very progressive Democrat, I think either one could
05:28win because the state is so democratic that that ends up being the competition. And I think it's
05:34an open question if it's a more progressive or a more center left candidate. Professor,
05:39I'm curious if this conversation is going to be rendered useless in your eyes if and when
05:47Vice President Kamala Harris jumps into the race. What do you think about that?
05:51Yeah, Kamala Harris is the big is the big question mark. So there are there are rumors
05:58that she might run for governor. There are also rumors she might run for president again.
06:03But if she jumps in the governor's race, it's going to clear most of the field.
06:07A lot of people who are already running have indicated that they might stand down. Some
06:11people who are thinking about running but haven't announced are almost certainly not
06:16likely to announce. Some some other very formidable competitors like Rob Bonta,
06:20the attorney general of the state, has already said he's not running and made a statement that
06:25he hopes she does run. So I think if she runs, she's the front runner. And I think she's probably
06:29likely to be Katie Porter. The thing with Porter and Harris, Harris is from the sort of the
06:35mainstream wing of the Democratic Party in California. And Porter is one of those outsiders.
06:40But Harris isn't isn't much older than Porter is. So the whole message of Porter being a new
06:46generation isn't going to really work against Harris. Harris has also previously successfully
06:51run for statewide office many times and I think brings a real strong geographic base of support
06:57from northern to southern California in a way that Katie Porter's base is mostly in Orange County,
07:01where she represented in Congress. And so I think Harris would actually just really
07:08knock some of the other challengers that we haven't talked about down or out entirely.
07:13I want to talk about her candidacy if she decides to run, because as you said, she's run a
07:19successfully multiple statewide campaigns for California attorney general. She was a senator
07:25in California. Then she was obviously vice president and presidential nominee. You think
07:30if she jumps in, it'll clear the path. But do you think she'll have an easy way to the governor's
07:37seat because she ultimately lost a nationwide race just a few months ago?
07:44I think she's going to if she runs for governor, she's going to have to work for it. Right. So
07:48it's not going to just be a easy win. It's a large state. She's going to have to campaign.
07:53But I think she's the clear front runner. She decides to run. The support for her in the state
07:59is still pretty high. And yes, she did lose. She lost the presidency by, you know, one point
08:04five percentage points nationally in the popular vote. But in California, she's a known quantity.
08:09People either like her or they don't. And on balance, more people like her than don't.
08:13And so she she would she would have to work for it. But she would be a clear front runner. She
08:19decides to she decides to run. Now, I don't know what could happen in the campaign right during
08:22the campaign. You know, Katie Porter or Tony Atkins, who's also running and Tony Villaraigosa,
08:28former mayor of L.A., who's also running. There's a lot of other potentially formidable candidates.
08:33They could attack her. They could have different strategies. Republicans might really go strong
08:38attacking her and bring her down, while other Democrats sort of try to rise above the fray to
08:43sneak through. So it's not it's not 100 percent chance she wins, but she's got a pretty good she's
08:48got a pretty good chance. And, too, I would bet on if you were going to bet on who's going to win
08:52the governor's race if she runs. I'm curious, who do you think when you're looking at this crowded
08:57field, nine Democrats, four Republicans so far, who do you think has a good shot? Who should we
09:04in the nation be looking out for in this race? Yeah, there are a lot of other people. So we
09:10talked about Harris. Definitely should keep an eye on Harris. You know, we talked about Katie
09:13Porter, who I think is really formidable, even though with some of the challenges that I talked
09:16about, I do think some of the Republicans are worth looking at. I don't think they're going to
09:20win, but I think they're going to shape the outcome potentially. I mean, there's a there's
09:24a congressman named Kevin Kiley who is potentially rumored to be thinking about running. He's young.
09:29He's you know, he's a real up and comer on the Republican side. I think him winning statewide
09:35would be challenging. But, you know, keep an eye on him. I think among the Democrats, there are some
09:41really formidable candidates. One of them is Antonio Villaraigosa, former mayor of L.A. He
09:46has run for statewide office previously. He he actually placed third previously in a statewide
09:51race running, I think, for governor before. And so he's somebody to definitely keep an eye on.
09:59There's other statewide elected officials, Tony Thurman, who's our superintendent of public
10:04instruction. There's Betty Yee, a former statewide officeholder that are less known nationally,
10:11but could really, you know, come on depending on how their campaigns go. You know, any one of them
10:17is not obvious to me that they're going to beat Kamala Harris or even Katie Porter. But
10:21over the course of a campaign, keep your eye out for all of these other very competitive
10:26and pretty strong Democrats. I'm curious when you're looking ahead at the future governor,
10:32I want to look at the current governor and that's Governor Gavin Newsom. He is a national name.
10:37And I want to talk about some stories that guard our national attention for Newsom.
10:41And if you want to wrap up what you think his legacy could be. So this is in his time. This
10:46is what he got pegged for nationally. He ate dinner maskless with a group of people at French
10:51Laundry, which is a fine dining restaurant during the thick of COVID. He's a Democrat
10:55willing to go in Republican spaces. We've seen him on Hannity on Fox News. Most recently, we've
11:01seen him talking with Charlie Kirk with Steve Bannon on his podcast. He wants to have more
11:06open and honest conversations. He was one of President Biden's surrogates. So when you're
11:11looking about at him, when you're thinking about his tenure, his legacy, what sticks out to you?
11:17Newsom has a really strong legacy. I mean, you've talked about some of the points,
11:22and I think what we're going to focus on a lot. And, you know, and it takes time. It takes time
11:26to really think about a governor's legacy. And I think our snapshot right now may not be what
11:30happens when we look back five years, 10 years from now. But he came in with this, you know,
11:36during a time is really challenging. COVID was one of the central parts. He did do a lot to,
11:44you know, get vaccines out there. He did shut down things a lot per public health recommendations
11:50that did lead to a backlash, especially from those on the right and people who wanted their kids
11:56going to school faster or to be able to open their businesses. And that was an issue that,
12:00you know, led to him facing a recall. He won overwhelmingly and I think was able to answer
12:07those critics. You know, he did have some missteps like dining at the French Laundry while
12:13businesses were locked down during the pandemic. And then now, though, I think the legacy is really
12:19going to be shaped by what he does here at the end. You know, in California, governors often
12:24don't end their terms, their second term as popular as when they start because it's just
12:30such a large and diverse state. It's hard to keep everybody happy for eight years.
12:34And so his interest in possibly running for president or keeping a national profile,
12:39talking to Republicans, talking to Steve Bannon, people that normally he would be attacking if he's
12:44sort of focused on the California constituency only, is something I think we should keep an
12:49eye on. I think if one of his legacies is to try to bring people together across party lines,
12:55that would be, I think, really interesting. That's not tended to be what he's done as governor,
12:59right? He's tended to focus on the majority party in the state, the Democrats, and moving
13:04a lot of policy forward. He has done a lot of work on housing. He's also done a lot of work
13:08on climate and the environment. I think the homeless problem in the state probably has
13:15exacerbated since COVID. And so a lot of his legacy focus has been on housing policy to try
13:21to address that. And we'll see. We won't really know if that's successful probably until a few
13:26years after he's out of the governorship, if not longer. And he's been floated as a potential
13:32presidential contender now. He does have a national profile. And the fact that he is willing
13:38to go into those conservative spaces begs the question if he wants to run for president,
13:42if he wants to go more moderate. I'm curious, when you're looking at his his tenure,
13:48are there any lessons that the current contenders can learn from now?
13:54So there are I think there are a lot of lessons that the current contenders for governor can learn
13:58from Newsom. He has done really well at balancing what I would say is the really progressive left
14:03flank of the voters in the party in the state, and then balancing maybe more of a center left
14:08group of voters who are independents who lean Democrat. And in the legislature, too, there's
14:13there's all those groups. The state is also very is very diverse geographically, racially, gender.
14:20I think he has done a really good job as governor trying to balance a lot of different groups of
14:24people. And I think that the and trying to bring people together within the Democratic Party.
14:30And so I think the current contenders on the Democratic side can learn from Newsom on how
14:34he's done some coalition building across a lot of different places. I do think in California,
14:40we're seeing a little bit of a turn while he was governor. And we're seeing this in some of
14:45the way he is moderating his rhetoric, especially around crime, especially around
14:50homelessness. We're seeing people who are still associated with the Democratic Party, still
14:56relatively liberal on a lot of policies among voters, but who are, you know, worried about
15:01increases in crime, worried about, you know, quality of life issues, the like, not just that
15:09people are homeless, but really like it's what seems to be an endemic problem of people on the
15:15streets and not able, you know, not able to really address it, especially in some of the
15:20largest cities in the states. And so I think we've seen him shift his focus a little bit to be a
15:25little bit more kind of like a compassionate toughness is maybe the way I would think of it,
15:29where he's, you know, he's not trying to clear streets and, and, you know, and do things that
15:34are, you know, harming people, but trying to also like clean things up while also trying to find
15:40housing solutions. So I think the current candidates are going to really have to balance
15:44basically like a really liberal flank in the state that wants to, you know, focus on services
15:50for people who are unhoused, social services as the answer. And then a group of people who
15:55include Democrats, who are starting to be a little more wanting to see more aggressive action on
16:02quality of life issues and just cleaning up streets and reducing crime. And so that's about,
16:06that's gonna be a balance in the, in this race that I think Newsom can help provide some guidance
16:12for. And I think he's had some successes on that, but not always. I don't think he's always been
16:15able to balance it because it's pretty, it's pretty hard. Professor, this is obviously a statewide
16:21race that has national interest. I'm on the East coast. I'm curious, what do you think the national
16:27conversation surrounding this race is missing as someone who's in California?
16:33I think one of the things that it's missing is the state of the state. So I think the national
16:38reputation for California right now is that it's a disaster and it's like things are out of control.
16:44And some of this has been rhetoric that has come from Trump. And some of this has just been rhetoric
16:48over the years. And I would say from an East coast perspective or a national perspective,
16:53if you're not here in California, you might think, oh my God, why are people living there?
16:57What's wrong with the state? And I would say it's not that bad, actually. It's sunny all the time.
17:03There is actually a lot that's working well. And so I do think, I actually think, especially for
17:08keeping business and the economy going in the state, I think a little bit of national boosterism
17:14may be in order from the next governor and the next candidates and even Newsom himself. If he
17:19wants to run for president, he's going to need to bring that narrative down of the state as a
17:23failure. And I think that's a national narrative. That's maybe not quite right. There are a lot of
17:28real policy challenges and some real problems, especially housing, homelessness, other issues,
17:35but it's not as bad as the national narrative, but probably not as positive as many of the elected
17:40officials would have wanted to look like. And so I think that's something to think about that
17:46the, you know, on the ground in California, people's lives are probably a little different
17:50than we're hearing from Trump or we're hearing from the national news. And then the other thing
17:55is just the state is incredibly large, as people do know. But what it means for politics is,
18:01you know, people in Fresno have very different beliefs than people in Los Angeles and in Orange
18:06County and in San Diego. And these are, in almost any other state, all the places I just mentioned
18:11would be one of the largest areas that would demand all the attention. But there's all of
18:16these very big population centers with really different demands and policy views. And so it's
18:23very hard to balance. And it's something to keep your eye on nationally about who might win and
18:27how can they how can they build bridges across all those diverse geographic places. Professor,
18:32I think that's a really interesting point, because when you think about headlines, when you think
18:37about from a national perspective about California, if you're just reading some headlines,
18:43you would think California's in disarray. People are leaving in droves because it's just so
18:47expensive. It's literally on fire because of those wildfires. You're saying, hey,
18:52that's not really necessarily true. It's not that bad. That is what I'm saying. I mean,
18:57I want to say with the wildfires and I live in Los Angeles and so and was very near one of the fires
19:02that was truly bad and that was scary. So I want to say that. But but like the sort of day to day
19:10the narratives that I see often in the national coverage of California is that it's a disaster
19:14all the time. Right. That was a true natural disaster. But that people are leaving in droves
19:19because it's unlivable and people don't want to live here. That is true in some cases. Right. Like
19:23so the housing prices are too high. People are moving to Arizona and Nevada and the East Coast
19:28for cheaper housing or to get jobs. But a lot of the people who are leaving,
19:32especially in the surveys we've done, you ask, they want to stay. So it's not that they're
19:36choosing to leave as much as that. They feel like they have to leave because there are other
19:40economic opportunities somewhere. So I think it's more of a balance between like there's a there's
19:45a real drive for people who want to live in the state. I especially think in some of the smaller
19:49parts of the state, the narrative of the sort of failed cities and urban crisis is actually not
19:55really the reality on the ground. If you go to somewhere like San Diego or Fresno and even parts
20:01of Los Angeles, it's just not it's not as it's not quite as bad as the national narrative. But
20:06then there are a lot of real problems that are endemic. And those are that's what gets the
20:10coverage. And so I don't want to I don't want to be too Pollyannish about the state of the state.
20:14But I do think it's generally more positive than the national narrative. But there are a lot of
20:19real endemic problems. And I think that that's a good place to end. And that's a good place
20:24for the next governor to kind of boost up the state a little bit while addressing these really
20:29real problems. And I know that we still have a long time until this election for California's
20:35governor. But as the race develops, I hope you come back on and break down the state of the
20:40race with me. Professor Gross, thank you so much for joining me. Thank you. I'd love to come back.