“The cases in India have now started doubling in four to five days, perhaps even quicker.” Data journalist Rukmini S told Brut why she thinks India will be home to nearly 10 lakh Covid-19 cases by May.
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00:00The reducing of the doubling time and a faster spread, a real explosion, especially as testing
00:09is expanded, is a frightening direction that this could go in as well.
00:29What's happening in India so far is very much in line with the trajectories of other countries.
00:35And what we're seeing is that cases in India have now started doubling in four to five
00:40days, perhaps even quicker.
00:48You know, I did a number of things.
00:50One is a sort of crude estimate by doubling the number of cases every five or six days.
01:00The other thing was to compare with estimates put up by a team of biostatisticians who have
01:06also done similar exponential increases, looked at that, but they've also tried to fit it
01:12within the curves of other countries.
01:16So these aren't, you know, simple doubling exercises alone.
01:21These are compared with the trajectories of other countries.
01:31I understand where this mistrust comes from and I don't, it isn't something I would dismiss
01:38of and I don't think it's wrong that people feel this way.
01:44These estimates seem crude, they seem to not factor in things that are changing in
01:49the world.
01:50They seem too easy, they seem too frightening.
01:53So for all of these reasons, I can understand why people mistrust them.
01:57I'm sure there's also, you know, I'm sure science and data communicators have also been
02:03lacking in explaining this well enough.
02:08The two biggest thing I'd say stats could do right now is one, give people a very real
02:13idea of the size and scale of what we're facing.
02:18The other thing is to help inform our response, particularly in terms of preparedness of health
02:25infrastructure.
02:27So if this is the scale of one million to several million by mid-May, we know how much
02:34we need to ramp up our health infrastructure.
02:36We know how much protective equipment we need to get in a hurry to our frontline defenders.
02:42So, you know, it's the first thing to arm ourselves with numbers in this fight.
02:47So the states that have the worst health infrastructure are really in for a rough ride.
02:54And health infrastructure is not something that can be built overnight.
02:58Even if we, you know, take over stadiums or private hospitals or any other large venues,
03:08it seems that in a subsection of cases, extremely specialized care will be required.
03:13So there's social distancing and there's lockdowns, which the government is doing right
03:37now.
03:38Also an attempt to ramp up health infrastructure.
03:42But, you know, there's possible drug discovery.
03:46Those are the sort of better case scenarios, but the reducing of the doubling time and
03:51a faster spread, a real explosion, especially as testing is expanded, is a frightening direction
03:59that this could go in as well.