"Madam, Finance Minister, give us a speech that tells us how the economy will go forward to $5 trillion." Author and columnist Sanjaya Baru tells Brut what he expects from India's post-lockdown budget.
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00:00Madam Finance Minister, in a couple of weeks, you will be reading out a budget speech, which
00:05will not just be your most important speech, but it would be the most important budget
00:10presentation for the economy, for the country, for your government, indeed for India.
00:16Because we are coming out of a very serious setback to the economy, both on account of
00:22the COVID and the lockdown, the pandemic and the lockdown, the migrant crisis, the farmer's
00:28crisis, but also because over the last several years, we have seen a decline in the rate
00:34of investment.
00:35We have seen a decline in the overall rate of economic growth.
00:39India was on an upward trajectory from around the turn of the century till around 2014 or
00:46so.
00:47The economy was growing at 8%.
00:49In fact, during the first five years of the Manmohan Singh government, it grew at 9%.
00:55From there, we have come down to a situation where the rate of growth is probably below
00:596% over the last few years.
01:03The government has said that the economy is on a trajectory of recovery.
01:08Indeed, that is possible, that there is once again a recovery in the sentiments of consumers,
01:15sentiments of investors and sentiment of savers.
01:18But this recovery is not for the entire economy.
01:22Our ministry has spoken about a V-shaped recovery.
01:25The V-shaped recovery is only for some of us.
01:29Some part, some sections of our society are indeed seeing a V-shaped recovery in their
01:34good fortunes.
01:35But there are many who are worried about the reverse V. In fact, the alphabet to think
01:39about is not V, but the alphabet to think about is K.
01:44Some sections of the society, some segments of the economy are doing well once again,
01:49but many others are still not.
01:51Young people are worried about placements, about employment, employment opportunities,
01:56new employment opportunities.
01:58Migrants who left home and went away to their villages are not yet returning to their earlier
02:02jobs because those jobs are not available.
02:06Employment used to be a big issue a couple of years back in the media.
02:09I do not see much being reported these days, but it is a serious challenge.
02:13If the Indian economy has to go back to 7, 8, 9% growth, which indeed we saw in the earlier
02:20part of this century, and if employment has to improve, and if inflation has to be kept
02:25down, then we need a four to five year growth trajectory, a roadmap for sustained economic
02:32growth over the next three, four years.
02:34The budget should lay down a map for the future.
02:37Madam Finance Minister, don't give us a speech which tells us what your government has done
02:42over the last five to six years.
02:44This is what you did last year in a long speech where your mouth went dry and you were exhausted.
02:50Give us a speech that tells us how the economy will go forward to $5 trillion.
02:56The Prime Minister said that by 2025, India will be a $5 trillion economy.
03:02What is it that you intend to do this year, next year, the following year?
03:06The country needs a roadmap going forward.