Tropical moisture is expected to lead to massive amounts of rain across Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky and surrounding areas in the first days of April.
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00:00We're joined now by AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter. John, we have some huge concerns out there later this week.
00:06We do, Jeff. AccuWeather flooding experts are concerned about a historic and life-threatening flash flooding event,
00:13which can then turn into a major river flooding event here from Wednesday through Saturday across portions of the Tennessee, Ohio,
00:23river valleys and surrounding areas, and we'll hone in on the specific areas of concern in just a moment.
00:28But we want people to be prepared. That's why we're using such strong language here to help keep people better informed and safer as it relates to this setup.
00:37It's a very concerning one when you look at all the players that are on the field.
00:40We're going to have a big area of high pressure in the atmosphere off the southeast coast,
00:44and what that's going to do is it's going to channel copious moisture from the Caribbean and the Gulf right up into parts of the central United States.
00:54And we'll have a weather pattern that the brakes are going to be on.
00:57It's like a traffic jam in the atmosphere, and the storm systems are not going to be able to move much further to the east.
01:04They'll be repeating over the same areas, persistent downpours in the same area with very moisture-laden air.
01:10That's in the reds and the yellows here.
01:12When you look at the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, that's a recipe for big trouble.
01:18And, John, the moisture is coming from a source region that is running warmer than average here,
01:24maybe not as warm as it was a year ago at this point when it was just off the charts warm,
01:28but we are running well above average here with temperatures.
01:31On average, look across the Gulf and also the Caribbean.
01:34These oranges and reds, some 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit above those historic averages.
01:41And so that means that when air dwells over those areas, it tends to take on those warmth and moisture components,
01:49and that's the air that's going to be drawn to the north, a deep feed of tropical moisture.
01:54And, John, very different, as you mentioned, very different from the current pattern.
01:57You know, the weekend storm that we're kind of wrapping up today, the beginning of this next one looked kind of similar,
02:02but the huge difference, high pressure off the southeast coast is like a roadblock for the eastward progression of the front.
02:08That's right.
02:09That big atmospheric traffic jam means that we're going to be dealing with heavy rain over the same area.
02:13So parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, southeastern Missouri, down toward a good portion of Arkansas,
02:21that's the area we're most concerned about.
02:23And look at these amounts, 8 to 12 inches of rain with an AccuWeather local storm max of 21.
02:29It's unusual for us to produce maps with this amount of rainfall over the period Wednesday to Saturday night.
02:36It's unusual to produce this amount of rainfall when you're not talking about a tropical storm or hurricane.
02:42And we're not talking about that, obviously.
02:44It's a whole different setup, but that copious moisture sets the stage for life-threatening major flooding,
02:51and it's not just going to be in one or two communities.
02:54It may be over a multi-state area here as we head toward the middle and end of the week.
02:59And, John, you know, just late last week we had 18, 19-plus inches of rain in the Rio Grande Valley,
03:04very different pattern, but that was also a slowly drifting disturbance, smaller scale,
03:08but the Gulf really fueled that, and that warm water of the Gulf is going to be fueling this as well.
03:13It sure is, and look at this corridor.
03:15This is that area that we're most concerned about with the greatest risk for flooding,
03:19and first this is going to be a problem on long creeks and streams
03:23and other low-lying areas that can be especially susceptible to flash flooding.
03:28But over time this is going to become a major river flooding problem
03:32as all that water runs off and moves downstream,
03:35and there's going to be very little in terms of vegetation in a lot of areas to reduce runoff.
03:40So this is going to run off, and that's what's going to escalate that risk as well.
03:44So, again, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding in these areas, there can be road and bridge washouts.
03:49It's a great time to download the AccuWeather app, turn on push notifications,
03:53have many ways to get those warnings, and be ready to move to higher ground.
03:58In these flash flooding emergencies, people oftentimes report that something can go
04:03from being dangerous to truly life-threatening in just a matter of moments,
04:08and I also want to remind, again, very easily download the free AccuWeather app,
04:11turn on push notifications, you get those warnings through the AccuWeather app
04:15delivered quicker on average than any other source.
04:17And one other point, Jeff, if people live busy lives, if you have friends or family members
04:21that live in that area that we identified, please give them a call and let them know
04:26that you can help save people's lives by elevating their awareness of a very dangerous week on the way.
04:32That's very true, John.
04:33Every year, every month, horrible things happen.
04:35People's lives are disrupted.
04:36They deal with a lot of loss, and a lot of this is preventable if you stay on top of it.
04:40And, again, getting the word out here early is a big part of that.
04:43So thanks again, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
04:45Big information there for later this week.
04:47Thanks.