China secondary sanctions escalator
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00:00all right alexander let's uh talk about the tariff war between the united states and uh
00:07and china and um the the tariff war is escalating it is uh escalating and it does look like the
00:19tariff war has been uh taken over by a certain neocon uh a neocon-ish let's say faction in uh
00:28in the trump administration and uh they are pushing the the trump policy to get uh harder and
00:35harder against china they're talking about increasing the tariffs to 245 or 25 i don't know
00:44what uh what effect that really has at this point why not make it 500 i don't know but um we we do
00:51have reporting from i believe it's the wall street journal that claims the strategy now from besant
01:02is to negotiate with 70 countries and i wouldn't even call it negotiations to be quite honest to
01:12to tell 70 countries that that wants some sort of a trade deal with the united states that the tariffs
01:19will be reduced or maybe even uh zeroed out if those countries cut uh ties with china cut trade
01:27with china so it does look like the trump administration is moving towards a policy which
01:34is very much uh a blockade uh against china an isolation blockade against china the wall street
01:40journal claims that uh the trump administration uh guys like besant they're doing this in order to
01:46to gain leverage over china and bring them to the negotiating table but when they say something
01:51like that i just think why not just contact china you're you're looking to do all the all of these
01:57things in order to just get them to to bilateral talks when china has already signaled china has signaled
02:04this that they are open to talks so i mean it it seems like the messaging is is just way off and
02:10very confused and china has actually said that the messaging is very uh confused and and they don't
02:16quite understand what uh what the trump administration is is up to china did say by the way before you
02:23you uh give everybody your thoughts china did say that uh trump has not been so aggressive against uh
02:30against xi jinping and china but it's been more of the trump administration that has been very
02:36aggressive towards china so i think that's an interesting statement from uh from china anyway
02:40your thoughts on the uh trade war well first of all i should say that i actually accept what the
02:47wall street journal article says i think i think this is indeed what has happened i mean the the
02:54information we're getting is that um after the reciprocal tariffs were imposed not just on china but
03:00on lots and lots and lots of different countries and when there were problems in the financial
03:05markets besant came along to trump and said look we've got to do away with these reciprocal tariffs on
03:11all of these other countries but let's keep them on china and then let's use the 90 days to negotiate
03:20deals with other countries that will then isolate china and force them into negotiations when we can impose
03:30basically our own demands upon them now i think this is true and i think this is consistent with what we
03:36know about scott besant um a couple of about two weeks ago i i saw information which appeared on x by the
03:44way about how way back in 2011 um besant was already indicating that he was pretty hostile to china from an
03:54economic perspective he thought basically didn't like china he didn't like it economically he rejected
04:00apparently um at the institute where he was working at the time he rejected a paper that outlined the
04:08various strengths and possibilities of the chinese economy he was very dismissive of it he was already
04:15indicating a certain hostility to china at that time now this is what i'm i mean you said that this is
04:21confusing i think we can understand we can explain the confusion very simply by saying that these
04:30these tariffs so-called against china that had been imposed on china they are not actually
04:38tariffs anymore they are sanctions we've gone from a policy of tariffs of protectionism to a policy of
04:47sanctioning china and the idea is the rhetoric is that it is intended to put pressure on china so that china
04:58will be forced to the negotiating table where the united states will be able to negotiate with china
05:06from a position of strength now if you understand these tariffs of sanctions then does that not already
05:15begin to sound familiar what does the european union say about its sanctions against russia what did the
05:26biden administration say about its sanctions against russia exactly the same thing paste exactly it's copy and
05:35paste it's exactly the same policy you impose sanctions you force the other side into negotiations from a
05:43position of strength and you basically then dictate terms now it has completely spectacularly failed against
05:53russia but if you remember i think it was about two years ago we did a program when we talked about the
06:02very first sanctions that had been imposed on some chinese officials and we said in that program that the
06:10united states is on an escalatory escalator with sanctions against china and the iron rule of sanctions is when
06:22you get on to that escalatory escalator you can't get off it takes you all the way up and it seems to
06:30me that's exactly where we are with china and we now have um all of these attempts to try to isolate china
06:39from the rest of the world economy isn't that exactly what the biden people the neocons in the biden
06:46people tried to do with russia all those threats of secondary sanctions or this constant movement
06:56towards more and more secondary sanctions against more and more countries to try to isolate russia from
07:03the world of the global economy and again that didn't work with russia but it's been tried all over
07:09again with china except you don't call it sanctions you call it tariffs so you say to countries around the
07:18world if you don't agree with us about china if you don't take steps with us to isolate china we will
07:29tariff you that sounds to me exactly like the same policy of secondary tax of secondary sanctions that's been
07:37applied against russia all over again and you know it shouldn't surprise us because it's quite obvious
07:47to me that there is indeed a very powerful neocon faction within the trump administration this has
07:54allied itself with some sections of the maga movement that don't like china for reasons i can understand by
08:03the way i mean i i understand why people from industrial regions in the united states who've seen their
08:11industries close and who struggle against chinese competition might have a particular animus against
08:18china but to repeat again this is not a protectionist industrial policy anymore now when you understand that
08:29everything else it seems to me becomes clear and it also becomes clear why you get uh brief
08:37cutouts of sanctions uh you know tariffs justice with russian sanctions they allow themselves to trade in
08:47certain types of goods from russia oil lng for a certain point in time though the pressure to go on
08:55impose imposing more and more sanctions on trade in those goods was always there so you know oil for
09:02example initially um was not affected by the original sanctions that were imposed in february 2022 and then we
09:12got the oil price gap and then we've got a more um oil um oil restrictions in the united states and then
09:20eventually in europe as well and all of that and we see the same with uh um certain types of chinese
09:27goods which are needed in the us market so um you lift tariffs on certain types of electronic goods
09:37but ultimately you're making it pretty clear that your ultimate intention is to slap tariffs on those as
09:44well all your what you're trying to do in the meantime is either localize production or try to find some
09:51means round and eventually the the pressure will grow so we've gone from an economic policy which is one i can
10:01understand and relate to to a geopolitical policy which is not very different from some of the geopolitical
10:13policies that we have seen in the past and i i have to say i'm concerned about this and i wonder whether
10:20the president himself donald trump who i think on the contrary is somebody who is a genuine protectionist
10:28and believes in protection quite understands what has happened to his policy that it has been distorted
10:37in this kind of way um which um ultimately will negate its its underlying effectiveness right you go from
10:48a policy of uh of saying you want to re-industrialize you want to protect uh american industry uh you want
10:57you want fair trade uh deals you want fair trade balances all understandable all of it is understandable
11:06uh how you get there that's that's that's another video and of course uh you have many analysts who
11:11who all take different approaches as you how to get there or if that's even possible if re-industrialization
11:16is even possible anymore i'm that's that's a different topic the the problem that the trump administration
11:23has and i agree with you is that they started off with with protecting u.s industry re-industrialization
11:31fair trade deals and now it's drifted towards sanctions against uh china with russia they started
11:43provoked a proxy war and then the sanctions came with the goal of regime change yes in russia that was
11:53the goal remove putin so you start the proxy war then you pile on 60 000 plus sanctions
12:01on russia you hope for the the putin government to collapse and all is good if you're the collective
12:08west that was the thinking what's the end goal with china you're starting off you start with tariffs
12:17at first you say you're gonna you're gonna impose tariffs liberation day and tariffs they've morphed
12:22into sanctions you're not trying to get other countries on board secondary sanctions to sanction
12:29china so but that's it's as you say secondary sanctions so you're trying to get other countries
12:34on board you don't have a proxy war or a hot war as you did with russia is that the next step and what
12:43is the end goal i mean is it regime change in china because that's that's not going to happen
12:50is it something else is it trying to put china in in its place to weaken china
12:55what is the end goal in all this because russia the end goal was i mean we called out the end goal
13:01after three months once the sanctions were put on russia you know we did many videos we said okay
13:06that's that's the purpose to all of this well to sink the russian economy and to remove putin and biden
13:13said as much what is the end goal here right with china let's first of all start with the whole let's
13:19unpack all those points that you make you're absolutely right we're not yet involved in a proxy
13:24conflict with china i absolutely believe now that that is coming it is only a question of time
13:31before we have some kind of a military conflict and you see this in taiwan you the the the new
13:38president there has been making incredibly strong comments about china he's referred to china as a
13:45foreign country which is an absolute red line for the government in beijing so again very much as in
13:56ukraine a completely unnecessary crisis is being provoked now can i just say here i want to just say
14:04something about taiwan it's always presented as a zero-sum game do you want taiwan to fall completely under
14:13beijing's control or do you want to have taiwan as an independent state it seems to me that there
14:21was a completely workable compromise that worked very very well for decades and which the chinese
14:29were showing no signs of being unhappy with or wanting to change which is that taiwan continues to
14:35function as in effect a kind of de facto independent state it maintains all kinds of economic contacts
14:44and political contacts at a certain level with pretty much every country in the world but it does
14:51so um if you like under the fiction that it is a part of china now the chinese were perfectly happy with
14:58that they had good economic relations with taiwan throughout that period in fact taiwan was becoming very
15:05active and very heavily involved in the chinese economy and this really wasn't an issue if you go
15:11back 10 15 years there was simply no issue about taiwan but now this whole issue of taiwan is being
15:19increasingly brought up there's talk about independence the new president who's taken over from the
15:26the previous pro-independence president seems even more keen to push forward with this
15:33and and essentially is talking about independence in a way which is going to provoke beijing it's it's
15:40inevitably going to um the chinese have said this is a red line for them they're taking military steps
15:47to prevent it and well it's difficult to see how if there's going to be a military clash
15:53over between china and taiwan that the united states is not going to be involved now people who say
16:03that what will then happen will not be a proxy war and that for that reason it's different from say
16:13ukraine should go back and read that new york times article about the war in ukraine which we discussed
16:21because ultimately it's now clear the war in ukraine was also not a proxy war it was a war in which the
16:29united states was directly involved on a much bigger scale than it admitted you're talking about the
16:36new york times article from two two weeks ago with the german command center that's what you're referencing
16:41exactly the wiesbaden command center and all that so you know we we are drifting into exactly the same
16:48scenario only this time it's difficult to see how the united states will be able to conceal
16:54its involvement in the same way that to a certain extent it managed to do in ukraine so we are heading
17:01towards this now um so that already is very alarming but what is the ultimate end game well one part of
17:10the end game obviously is to prevent china from becoming an economic rival to the united states
17:19building up alternative economic relationships to those of the united states superseding the united
17:26states as the dominant player of the world economy all of that but i think in the end if you
17:33manage to get some of the people who promote this policy to one side and talk to them one for one
17:40it's quite obvious to me that the ultimate objective again is regime change in china that is what it is
17:46all all about i mean if you listen to the rhetoric they use about um the chinese government about the
17:55communist party of china about uh xi xinping in particular um the ultimate end goal end goal is the same
18:04now it it it failed disastrously in russia putin is there stronger than ever more popular than ever i'm sure
18:15it's going to fail in exactly the same way in china but as we've discussed so many times in so many programs
18:25these people don't have a reverse gear they when they start on these policies they cannot ever give
18:38them up and we are on a steady push towards escalation now in in terms of ukraine donald trump
18:50has come in and he's put this to his i mean to his enormous credit the one thing he's managed to do
18:58with ukraine is he's brought this whole thing to a stop and shows sign of wanting to reverse it what i
19:04don't think he appreciates is that he is on the same trajectory with china as the biden people were
19:13in ukraine i don't think he is fully sold on this policy and maybe just possibly when he understands that
19:24that this is where he this is going he will put it he will put a stop on it also but he needs to understand
19:33or somebody needs to explain to him that this is exactly where this is going and that that is the objective
19:40that ultimately uh these people are aiming for it it is the only logical end point for their policies
19:51if their policies were ever to be successful which of course they cannot be a bloomberg is saying
20:00chinese officials are confused by conflicting signals from washington while trump's tone on chinese
20:06president xi jinping has been moderate hawkish comments from other high-ranking white house officials
20:14have conflicted without a clear and consistent u.s position china sees little value in engagement
20:22it's basically china saying look we we're okay if we sit down with you and we we talk about a managed
20:31controlled divorce yeah a decoupling whatever you want to call it a soft landing you know let's let's
20:38let's go our separate ways but let's manage it yes and then we can completely you know be be separate
20:48maybe a little trade here and there but we're fine with it but let's manage this thing and it seems as
20:54if the chinese realize that trump has one vision of of where he wanted to go which was as you stated as
21:03we stated uh protecting us industry re-industrialization etc but they also seem to understand that hawkish
21:10that's the word that they use hawkish forces and try inside the administration have taken over and now
21:16this thing is going in a completely different direction correct
21:21yeah is isn't there someone in the trump administration that also understands it stands
21:26if the chinese understand this you got to imagine that there are people in the trump administration
21:30who understand this and they can bring trump the president back into into focus of of where he
21:36wanted to go with liberation day yes well exactly i mean can i think there are very intelligent people
21:43in the trump administration that's the first thing to say i i think that over time they will begin to
21:50understand this and i'm hoping that we will eventually see the brakes being put on can i just repeat again
21:58if this is a policy for rebuilding american industry and using protection to do it then that is a you know
22:09that is a worthy objective and i am not somebody who is in principle opposed to the use of tariffs i can
22:17understand the point about what that kind of protectionism is all about but notice some of the
22:24rhetoric that is being now used it's about stopping chinese predatory economic policies not just against
22:35the united states but all other countries i is the unit they're talking about in other words blocking chinese
22:45trade with everybody which makes it clearly a geopolitical project now it's not going to work it cannot work
22:56far too many countries rely upon depend on china now for their trade and anyway i'm not even sure that this is
23:06put aside any you know more you know the morals of this uh uh policy uh i'm sorry whether it's workable
23:13as a policy economically which i don't think it is i'm not sure that it's even a you know ethical policy
23:19frankly imposing an economic blockade of this kind against one particular country in this kind of way
23:27but all right leave leave that aside the focus should be on the united states itself by all means have
23:37tariffs if that's what you think is going to work you can have 10 flat tariffs and you can put in
23:44stronger tariffs to protect particular industries as has already happened with automobiles with coal
23:52with steel with aluminium whatever whatever you think needs particular protection you can
24:00you can have tariffs which apply against all trading countries to protect american industry you can
24:08develop a program to develop american industry behind those tariff barriers exactly as was the case in the
24:1819th century that is a policy it may not be one that most economists would agree with but it is a policy and it has an objective
24:28and i'm not myself going to come and simply say it's going to fail um before it's tried let but
24:37and china can't object to that because china cannot object to it the us's sovereign right to do these
24:43things to do these things exactly well you can you can they will say the world trade trade organization
24:49but who pays any attention to that anymore to be to say it bluntly but you know it is a policy china
24:55cannot object to it but don't try in that case to interfere with china's trade with other countries
25:02as well and the united states is every um all of the things are in place
25:10to enable the united states to rebuild its industrial economy in that way it has a massive consumer market
25:17still the biggest in the world even though it's now only 30 percent of world demand but
25:23you know that is still enormous demand there is huge demand for goods in the united states you can you can
25:31rebuild america the industries of america in that sort of way but the risk you run if you
25:41convert this into an economic war is that you will lose your focus on that you will stop thinking about
25:52the people in the industrial towns and coal mines in pennsylvania in all of the other industrial places
25:59of the united states because you will become drawn into a long drawn out economic war which will then
26:06become a geopolitical war and perhaps ultimately a mirror a military struggle with china the most
26:13powerful adversary you have ever taken on since the end of the second world war and in the meantime all
26:20of those places in the united states which you set out to try and help will just continue to rot
26:27because you're going to have to win over friends to around the world you're going to look
26:34look for allies to help you fight this geopolitical struggle with china and how you're going to do
26:43that well scott besant is already uh indicating the way you're going to do it you're going to cut
26:48trade deals which are going to be favorable to those friends and they will then take advantage of that
26:56to export their goods into the united states so instead of being faced with chinese
27:03imports you're going to have imports from europe from x if we know from wherever south korea thailand
27:12whatever country i mean i'm not saying any particular country but you're going to lose focus
27:18on re-industrialization of the united states you're going to sacrifice the american economy again
27:24to the pursuit of this geopolitical struggle so it is ultimately self-defeating
27:30yeah i agree uh spheres of influence and globalism he ended globalism trump had the
27:42globalism in a way re-industrialized the united states stay focused yes stay focused on these
27:49things the minute it becomes a geopolitical project it turns into a disaster it really does remind me of
27:54the european union in a way as well you know the european union started out very good movement of
28:02of labor uh movement of of capital and an economic union all is good for the benefit of the of the
28:10member states of the eu and it turned into a geopolitical freaking nightmare yeah exactly and
28:17and that's that's that's what could happen with with all of this in in the united states they need to
28:22stop pursuing these geopolitical uh uh initiatives it doesn't do anyone any good especially the american
28:30people it doesn't do the american people any good he did absolutely i i would the the starting point for
28:39any policy of protectionism i i would say is to go back to the president the american who for me remains
28:48by far the greatest american president who actually in many respects initiated the program of protectionism
28:57who is lincoln most people have shown very little interest in lincoln's economic policies
29:04in the 1860s but he was the person who basically launched the united states on the program of
29:11protection and who created the um framework for the industrialization of america and for the
29:20agricultural development of america as well anyway go to his last speech his last public speech his
29:28second inaugural address which you know the last passage which starts with the words you know
29:34with malice towards none with charity for all but it ends with the words that they would that america
29:42would seek a just and lasting peace with ourselves and all nations and that ought to be the policy
29:53that was what lincoln understood if you're going to develop the united states you need peace you don't
30:00look for enemies all over the place there were many people in the united states at that time who were
30:05looking for enemies and by the way britain was the was the country that they were talking about at that
30:11time lincoln said forget all about that we impose protection we defend american industry we build it up
30:19and we can engage in a massive program of industrialization and economic development and administrations that
30:27followed uh um pursued his policies and the result was that the america the united states became the
30:35economic colossus that it was by the beginning of the 20th century and you know that is where
30:45a policy of protectionism should begin a poll a just and lasting peace with ourselves and all nations
30:54all right we will end the video there the durand.locals.com we are on rumble odyssey
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