Escalating trade tensions with China pose a major threat to the U.S. stock market.
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00:00My biggest short term concern for the markets right now is that the escalation with China continues and there's not a viable path to an off ramp.
00:08Even with the 90 day pause in reciprocal tariffs on a handful of other countries, the escalation with China pretty much overpowers any of that, given how much of our trade is done with China, though it's come down in recent years.
00:22It's still a significant portion of our imports. There are just a lot of linkages there that are really hard to unwind.
00:29And right now, the, you know, the 200 plus percent tariff on China makes doing business there almost impossible.
00:37So the biggest concern in the near term is that the escalation there doesn't have viable off ramps.
00:43And even if we cut deals with every other country that we slapped reciprocal tariffs on, China alone could be enough to knock several percentage points from here off the S&P 500 or the major indexes and could be enough to cool the economy significantly as well.
00:59And if you're like, what are we talking about now?
01:02We're talking about the problems.
01:04I hope that it's a good option.
01:09I hope that we're going on.
01:15Give us a little bit to the end, but I'll try to keep the same path.