🚨 France is talking tough — with bold claims and escalating rhetoric suggesting it believes it could take on Russia militarily. 🇫🇷 But is this political posturing, NATO pressure, or a serious shift in European military doctrine?
🎙️ On The Duran, we break down:
🔹 Macron’s aggressive stance
🔹 France’s military capabilities vs. Russia
🔹 What this means for NATO, Ukraine, and global stability
🔹 Is Europe being dragged into something far bigger?
💬 Join us for grounded analysis, historical insight, and geopolitical context you won’t hear in the mainstream.
🔔 Subscribe and turn on notifications to stay informed on the power moves shaping our world.
#France #Russia #TheDuran #Macron #Geopolitics #FranceVsRussia #UkraineWar #NATO #MilitaryStrategy #WorldPolitics #EUUpdate #WarRhetoric #GlobalConflict #DefenseNews #FranceMilitary #RussiaUkraine #BreakingNews #EuropeInFocus #GeopoliticalTensions #PoliticalAnalysis
🎙️ On The Duran, we break down:
🔹 Macron’s aggressive stance
🔹 France’s military capabilities vs. Russia
🔹 What this means for NATO, Ukraine, and global stability
🔹 Is Europe being dragged into something far bigger?
💬 Join us for grounded analysis, historical insight, and geopolitical context you won’t hear in the mainstream.
🔔 Subscribe and turn on notifications to stay informed on the power moves shaping our world.
#France #Russia #TheDuran #Macron #Geopolitics #FranceVsRussia #UkraineWar #NATO #MilitaryStrategy #WorldPolitics #EUUpdate #WarRhetoric #GlobalConflict #DefenseNews #FranceMilitary #RussiaUkraine #BreakingNews #EuropeInFocus #GeopoliticalTensions #PoliticalAnalysis
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NewsTranscript
00:00All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine, what is happening on the front lines.
00:07I believe the Kursk situation has finally resolved the 300 narrative in the monastery.
00:17I think that has also been cleared out as well.
00:20And what's happening in the south, in Kharkiv, in the Zaporozhya-Herson direction?
00:29Are we still looking at a Russian military buildup for a possible offensive in the spring?
00:36Right, we're looking at first a continued Russian buildup for an offensive which is definitely coming, that is one.
00:45But secondly, we're also looking at Russian advances.
00:48At all points of the front line, we see the Ukrainians increasingly buckling and transferring reserves from one place to another as they're constantly trying to plug holes.
01:02And that is the story.
01:03Now, I ought to say that a big Russian offensive is coming.
01:11The Russians have already started the first preliminary moves in that offensive.
01:18I understand that across Ukraine, the ground is still very soft.
01:23It's still very muddy in places.
01:25So this isn't the really big blow.
01:28That will probably still come towards the end of May.
01:32But the Russians are already moving and it's looking increasingly difficult for the Ukrainians to hold their positions.
01:40But perhaps even more interesting is that we're now getting more information about the size of the buildup on each side.
01:49And it's clear the Ukrainian commander, military commander, Sirsky, has admitted as much, effectively admitted as much, that the Ukrainians aren't mobilizing enough men to make up their losses.
02:05And we now have reports, including studies being done by people in Germany, which show that not only are the Russians mobilizing more than enough men every day to more than make up their losses,
02:21but that people are volunteering for the Russian army in more than enough numbers to enable the Russian army to grow.
02:30And it is continuing to grow every day.
02:34So every day, the balance shifts.
02:38The Russian army gets bigger.
02:39The Ukrainian army gets smaller.
02:42The Russians have continuing to produce huge numbers of weapons every day.
02:52Sirsky made an extraordinary admission, which is that at the height of the fighting in the summer,
02:58the Russians were firing 40,000 rounds of shells every day.
03:05Now, across a whole year, that would translate to something like 14 million shells, which is astonishing.
03:14Now, obviously, they weren't firing 40,000 rounds of shells every day.
03:19At the moment, according to Sirsky, they're firing around 28,000 rounds of shells a day, which would point to production rate of around 10 million shells.
03:33That's according to Sirsky.
03:34These are Ukrainian figures.
03:36It's clear to me what has happened is that the Russians have stockpiled large numbers of shells.
03:42They did so before the offensive last summer.
03:47Presumably, they've done this again.
03:49Clearly, production in Russia of shells must have grown in order to make this possible.
03:57And I'm not going to dispute the widely expressed claim.
04:01I think it's most likely true that the Russians are also importing shells from North Korea.
04:06And I'm going to make a guess that those are new-build shells and that North Korean factories are also now involved in producing shells for the Russian army.
04:17North Korea has an extensive factory network with skilled workers who are trained to produce large quantities of shells.
04:27So we have a situation where the Russians have more shells than they've ever had.
04:32They've got more aircraft than they've ever had.
04:34They've got more drones, far more drones than the Ukrainians have.
04:39And their aircraft, their aviation is getting stronger.
04:43And by most accounts, the air defense system in Ukraine is getting more and more ragged and that there are more and more holes appearing in the air defense system.
04:53They are basically out of Patriot missiles.
04:57The European systems are few and not apparently as good as the Patriots.
05:05That's at least what the Ukrainians are saying.
05:08So the balance, the military balance is shifting decisively in Russia's favor.
05:15And when Putin said short a few days ago that the time has come to end this, you can see why he is confident that that will happen.
05:23Yeah, we're even getting reports out of Germany which claim that Mertz's rhetoric about the Taurus missiles, he's going to change his mind when they break the news to him that the Taurus missiles absolutely have to be operated and fired and controlled by German military.
05:39Which would mean that Germany would become 100% a party to the conflict.
05:44And there are reports saying that Mertz is going to have to back down from his position.
05:48That's what they're saying out of Germany.
05:50So even the Taurus missile, the next wonder weapon Taurus missile looks like it's not going to happen.
05:57Yes.
05:57I think that's right.
05:59By the way, I would not be surprised if this turns out to be true.
06:02I mean, bear in mind that the one thing that Mertz does is U-turn.
06:07I mean, he does this all the time now.
06:10He's done this repeatedly.
06:11He did this over the debt break.
06:12He did this over migration issues.
06:16Why shouldn't he do this over the Taurus missiles as well?
06:19So I suspect that the other reason why he's been advised that he can't, that there's no sense in supplying Taurus missiles is because the Americans have said that they're not prepared to provide guidance data for those missiles.
06:40In which case, in practical terms, they probably can't be used.
06:46Just saying, notice we've been hearing a lot less about storm shadows and scout missiles recently.
06:53And the attack of these missiles have completely stopped.
06:56And I think the reason is very simple, that the Americans are no longer providing guidance information for them.
07:01Yeah, exactly.
07:03So if Russia goes on the offensive, if they go on the advance, if they start to advance significantly in the next couple of months, do you believe that France and the UK are going to make a move towards the Black Sea, towards Odessa, through Romania?
07:22Believe it or not, I do.
07:24I really do.
07:26You think they're that dumb?
07:27I think that they're that crazy and that obsessed.
07:32Apparently, the French, at the very latest Coalition of the Willing Summit, told the other Europeans, don't worry.
07:43The Russians have struggled to capture even villages.
07:50If we arrive in Ukraine, there's no way that they're going to take us on over and above the Ukrainians.
08:01Apparently, the French actually said that.
08:04And apparently, the other European leaders, those of them that retain some connection to reality, heard this with complete incredulity and were, to put it mildly, unconvinced.
08:17But I think that gives us a sense of the madness, if you like, the obsessiveness with which some people in France, Macron and his circle, are approaching this.
08:34So I think there will be French troops sent to Odessa.
08:36And I think we will probably start to see them appear there in the late summer.
08:41That's probably the time when all of this will come together.
08:45And then heavens knows what's going to happen.
08:48The Russians will certainly respond.
08:50And it could very well be that we're going to start seeing French soldiers going back to France in body bags.
08:56And that will trigger, I suspect, a big crisis in France.
09:01British soldiers as well, you think?
09:02British soldiers as well.
09:04I can't imagine Macron sending French troops to Odessa without Stammer sending British ones.
09:11And what do you think the goal is in all this?
09:14Do you think that Macron and Stammer actually believe that Russia is going to be afraid of the French and military forces?
09:21And they're not going to do anything?
09:23Do you think they actually believe that?
09:24Or do you believe that this is all about trying to get the U.S. involved?
09:30Once those troops are annihilated by the Russians, then you know that Stammer and Macron are going to go crying to the Trump administration.
09:37That's a given.
09:39That's what they're going to do.
09:40So what do you think the end goal is?
09:42Or maybe a little of both?
09:43Maybe a little of both.
09:44I think when Macron first proposed sending French troops to Ukraine, which was last year, if you remember, after the fall of Avdevka, the objective was absolutely straightforward.
09:57It was to suck the Americans into the war.
10:00At that time, remember, we're talking about Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, and as we now know, Milley, Cavoli, all of those people.
10:10So it was a kind of semi-rational calculation, given how the attitudes of those people.
10:20It's understandable why Macron might have thought that if the French army enters Ukraine, the Americans will be there to back it.
10:28I think that now doubts about that have grown.
10:33I think there were those attempts by Macron and Stammer back in February to get Trump to commit to providing the British and the French with a backstop.
10:47Trump has clearly refused to do that.
10:50But if you notice, Macron and Stammer are still pressing on with this.
10:54I think that they now have got themselves so committed to this plan that they're not going to back off, even if they feel that the Americans are not going to be there.
11:10And I think that they are now telling each other that there's no way the Russians are going to take them on, that they're so much better than the Russians, that the Russians are never going to take them on, and that they can send their troops to Odessa and all will be OK.
11:29And the French will take over Odessa.
11:32The British will take over Lvov, things of that kind.
11:37I think they really believe that.
11:38I think, well, really believe that.
11:40I think they talked themselves into believing it.
11:45Here's what I think is going to happen.
11:47I think we're going to see the Russian-Ukraine army start to collapse over the course of the summer.
11:54I think there's then going to be a rush, another rush to get a ceasefire going.
12:01I think they're going to tell Zelensky at some point to declare a unilateral ceasefire.
12:07And that they're going to have French troops already in Romania, and they're going to get the troops from Romania into Odessa as soon as Zelensky declares that unilateral ceasefire.
12:22And they hope that the Russians will then be deterred and will observe the ceasefire, which, of course, isn't going to happen.
12:29I mean, the Russians have already made that absolutely clear.
12:32But I think that now is the plan.
12:34So I'm sorry to say this.
12:36I think they are going to do it.
12:38And I think Macron has taught himself into believing that he can do it.
12:43And I think Stalmer has the same.
12:46Yeah, that's why it was so important to not have a Jorgescu win in Romania.
12:52Exactly.
12:53Absolutely.
12:54They wanted to prevent any type of block from Romania.
13:00So basically, just to wrap up the video, and it makes sense what you're saying.
13:03So basically, it will be Zelensky saying that there's going to be a ceasefire.
13:08I don't care if Russia agrees to it or not.
13:11We're calling a ceasefire, and we're inviting the French military in.
13:15As a sovereign country under international law, we can invite a military into our country, and that's what they're going to say.
13:22They're going to invite France in.
13:23And actually, my final question is, okay, so it's fairly easy for France to get from Romania to Odessa.
13:32I mean, it's not a long ways off.
13:36The French troops in Odessa, will Russia, say they're in the city, say they're embedded in Odessa, a couple of thousand French and UK troops, what could Russia possibly do then?
13:49I mean, it can't do anything immediately, can it?
13:52Well, so I mean, in essence, you could possibly have, I'm not saying it's going to be a huge force, because the UK doesn't have a huge force.
14:02I don't think France has a huge force to dedicate to this, but say four or five, 6,000, maybe more troops just kind of enter the city limits of Odessa, the port areas, the city of Odessa, some of the outskirts of Odessa.
14:17Odessa, does Turkey help out, because you do have that Black Sea meeting, does Turkey get involved on the side of France and the UK?
14:27I mean, it wouldn't surprise me, given what Erdogan gets up to.
14:32But what the Russians will do, I think, is they will launch missile strikes against them.
14:38Odessa is one of the most heavily bombed cities in Ukraine.
14:43And I think that that is exactly what the Russians will do.
14:46Of course, we don't know how far or close to Odessa the Russians would be by late summer.
14:57I mean, that's the thing we simply don't know.
14:59We don't know what the Russian military plans are, whether they're going to cross the Dnieper, whether they're going to stay on their side of the Dnieper.
15:07But we simply don't know.
15:09But I think that if the French troops appear in Odessa, the Russians will strike at them.
15:15And, of course, by then, they will have, you know, obviously their existing hypersonic missiles, and they will have Oreshnik missiles apparently available in large quantities as well.
15:30So it could be devastating.
15:32All right.
15:35We will end it there.
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