🔥 The tides may be shifting…
In this critical update, Alexander Mercouris dives deep into the latest developments shaking the geopolitical stage 🌍
🧠 Key topics covered:
🇷🇺 Putin's strategic position strengthens as diplomacy falters
😡 Zelensky’s fiery rejection of the U.S.-backed Kellogg peace plan
💥 London peace talks collapse — what happened behind closed doors
🇺🇸 The U.S. is reportedly considering a pullout option — is this the turning point?
📉 Diplomacy is failing. Tensions are rising. The consequences could be global.
👉 LIKE 👍 | SUBSCRIBE 🔔 | SHARE 📲 to stay informed with real, independent analysis.
#AlexanderMercouris
#UkraineWar
#RussiaUkraineConflict
#PutinVictory
#ZelenskyNews
#KelloggPlan
#PeaceTalksCollapse
#Geopolitics
#USForeignPolicy
#LondonTalks
#WarUpdate
#USPullout
#GlobalNews
#IndependentMedia
#AlternativeAnalysis
#UkraineCrisis
#RussiaStrategy
#WesternDiplomacy
#TruthInMedia
#RealPolitics
In this critical update, Alexander Mercouris dives deep into the latest developments shaking the geopolitical stage 🌍
🧠 Key topics covered:
🇷🇺 Putin's strategic position strengthens as diplomacy falters
😡 Zelensky’s fiery rejection of the U.S.-backed Kellogg peace plan
💥 London peace talks collapse — what happened behind closed doors
🇺🇸 The U.S. is reportedly considering a pullout option — is this the turning point?
📉 Diplomacy is failing. Tensions are rising. The consequences could be global.
👉 LIKE 👍 | SUBSCRIBE 🔔 | SHARE 📲 to stay informed with real, independent analysis.
#AlexanderMercouris
#UkraineWar
#RussiaUkraineConflict
#PutinVictory
#ZelenskyNews
#KelloggPlan
#PeaceTalksCollapse
#Geopolitics
#USForeignPolicy
#LondonTalks
#WarUpdate
#USPullout
#GlobalNews
#IndependentMedia
#AlternativeAnalysis
#UkraineCrisis
#RussiaStrategy
#WesternDiplomacy
#TruthInMedia
#RealPolitics
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00:00Good day. Today is Wednesday 23rd April 2025 and today Wednesday was also supposed to be the day
00:00:09when the Europeans, the Americans and the Ukrainians came together, adopted General
00:00:16Kellogg's plan which would then be taken by President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow
00:00:24to be presented to President Putin. Well, I said in my previous programmes that the Russians have
00:00:32already made it clear in many places and at many times that they're not prepared to accept the
00:00:38Kellogg plan. I discussed this all extensively yesterday but I also said and I've also said in
00:00:45many places that the Ukrainians also would have strong issues with the Kellogg plan even though
00:00:53in most respects, in fact in nearly all respects, is probably the best resolution to the war that
00:01:02they can realistically hope to achieve at this time and that it was not a foregone conclusion
00:01:09that they would accept it. Well, in the event, yesterday, before the talks today even began,
00:01:19the Ukrainians, President Zelensky himself rejected the Kellogg plan outright and did so in the most
00:01:28extreme and I have to say I thought even insulting terms. I've discussed in previous programmes how the
00:01:40Ukrainian delegation that was being sent to London would be headed by Andrei Yermak,
00:01:49Zelensky's chief of staff, the Ukrainian defence and foreign ministers would also participate but that
00:01:57it was interesting that Zelensky himself was not going and I suggested and I still believe by the way
00:02:03that that that was at the wish of the Americans. Just as happened after the disastrous meeting between
00:02:11Trump and Vance and Zelensky in the Oval Office at the end of February, the Americans called the
00:02:21Ukrainians to a meeting on that occasion in Jeddah and made sure that Zelensky, who they have now by now
00:02:30come to realise, is a wrecker, they made sure that Zelensky would not attend that meeting. And out of that
00:02:40meeting, an apparent agreement by the Ukrainians for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire emerged.
00:02:51Well, it seems to me that the Americans tried to do the same thing with the meeting in London. They knew
00:03:01that Zelensky, before the meeting in Jeddah, would not agree to an unconditional ceasefire. Zelensky has
00:03:08repeatedly said that he's only interested in a ceasefire if he gets a security guarantee from the United
00:03:15States. In other words, a commitment by the United States to come to Ukraine's aid and defence if the
00:03:26Russians were to violate the ceasefire. And of course, as night follows day, Zelensky would then arrange
00:03:35for the ceasefire to be violated, would blame the Russians for the fact, and would demand assistance
00:03:42from the Americans from the Americans. Anyway, Zelensky would not have agreed to the unconditional ceasefire
00:03:50proposal that came out of the meeting in Jeddah. And there was little likelihood that he would agree to the
00:03:59Kellogg plan, which was being put to the Ukrainians at the meeting that was supposed to happen today in
00:04:10London. This is because, despite the fact that the Kellogg plan is, frankly, very beneficial, or at least
00:04:22works strongly in Ukraine's interests at this time, Zelensky has consistently refused to walk back from any of
00:04:37the various demands of the various demands he has been in making right through the war ever since the
00:04:45collapse of the Istanbul negotiations in April 2022. He continues to be committed to his so-called peace
00:04:53plan. This is a plan for the complete withdrawal of all Russian troops from every millimetre of territory
00:05:01that Ukraine controlled on the 1st of January 2014, including Crimea. In other words, for the
00:05:09unconditional capitulation, military capitulation of the Russians. And then, and only then, there would be
00:05:18substantive negotiations, which would be negotiations not to decide the future orientation of Ukraine,
00:05:30or larger security issues, such as the security architecture of Europe, or any of those sort of things.
00:05:38It would be negotiations about reparations to be paid by Russia to Ukraine about war crimes, trials of Russian
00:05:47officials, including perhaps President Putin himself, things of that kind. As for Ukraine's right to join
00:05:56NATO, Zelensky has made it clear that that is, as far as he is concerned, non-negotiable. He insists on it. He insists on
00:06:05Ukraine's right to build up Ukraine's armed forces to whatever size Ukraine can manage. He's not prepared to make any
00:06:17concessions whatsoever on the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine. He's not prepared to make any concessions on the
00:06:28position of the Orthodox Church. None of that, as far as he is concerned, is open for discussion. And he is not happy with the
00:06:39Kellogg plan, because the Kellogg plan does three things that he doesn't like. Firstly, it leaves the Russians in
00:06:48control of significant territory in what, as far as Zelensky is concerned, is eastern Ukraine. Donbass, large areas of
00:06:58Zaporozhye, large areas of Kherson region, and of course, Crimea. That, as far as Zelensky is concerned, is unacceptable. It also,
00:07:12apparently, provides for US recognition of Crimea as legally part of Russia. And again, Zelensky is adamantly
00:07:33opposed to that. As far as he's concerned, Crimea is Russian, sorry, is Ukrainian. And the whole topic is not fit for
00:07:44discussion. Thirdly, the Kellogg plan does not provide for US security guarantees for Ukraine. There might be
00:07:54European security guarantees to Ukraine, security guarantees provided by Zelensky's friends in London,
00:08:03Paris and Berlin. But Zelensky knows that without the United States, those security guarantees are worth
00:08:13little. And even though Kellogg clearly does envisage deployments of European troops to Ukrainian territory,
00:08:23Zelensky also knows that those troops, without an American guarantee behind them, cannot fundamentally
00:08:32change the military balance. So he wasn't happy with that either. There were other provisions about the
00:08:41Kellogg plan as it has evolved, which Zelensky also strongly disagrees with. As is so often the case when outside
00:08:52when outsiders come to a conflict, particularly, if I may say so, at Anglo American outsiders who bring their own
00:09:02perspectives to what is fair and just to conflicts. The American proposal that the United States retain control, take over
00:09:13control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and operate the nuclear power plant on behalf of both the
00:09:23Russians and the Ukrainians was totally unacceptable to Zelensky as well. As far as he is concerned, the Zaporozhye nuclear
00:09:35nuclear power plant is Ukrainian and must be returned to Ukraine. Well, this time Zelensky was not going to allow the
00:09:45same thing to happen as happened in Jeddah. He's never been really happy with the ceasefire, the ceasefire, the
00:09:53unconditional ceasefire that the Ukrainians unwillingly agreed to at the meeting in Jeddah. This time before the
00:10:05talks in London had even begun. He made a speech in which, to all intents and purposes, he trashed the
00:10:17Kellogg plan. Ukraine will not recognise Crimea as part of Russia. Ukraine continues to consider all of the
00:10:27territory currently occupied by Russia in what Zelensky considers to be eastern Ukraine. He considers it to be
00:10:35Ukrainian and it expects that that territory will be returned eventually to Ukraine. Ukraine categorically rejects
00:10:47any formula which leaves the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant outside Ukraine's control.
00:10:57Zelensky made a whole series of comments about NATO, and these have not been properly understood by the media in the
00:11:09West, or at least they haven't been properly reported there, as far as I'm concerned. Anyway, Zelensky said, if Ukraine cannot
00:11:17join NATO, then what alternative security guarantee is it going to be given? What Zelensky actually means is that
00:11:29Ukraine must have security guarantees identical to NATO membership if it does not join NATO itself. That is a
00:11:40Zelensky's way of saying that Ukraine really should join NATO. And, of course, Zelensky says all of this in order, basically, to
00:11:52throw the whole question of NATO membership back to the Americans, and to make it absolutely clear that regardless of
00:12:02whatever Kellogg is saying about NATO membership for Ukraine being taken off the table, the Ukrainians will continue to
00:12:12press for NATO membership, because as far as they are concerned, that is the only guarantee that they can have that the
00:12:20United States will come to their defence again if they find themselves in another war with the Russians. So, in effect,
00:12:29Zelensky trashed the entire Kellogg plan. And he went further. He said that the Ukrainian delegation that is being
00:12:41sent to London would not discuss the Kellogg plan, had no mandate to agree to any part of the Kellogg plan. Its only mandate
00:12:55mandate was to discuss a ceasefire and that if a ceasefire was agreed, the kind of ceasefire that very unwillingly
00:13:09the Ukrainians agreed to at the meeting in Jeddah. Well, if a ceasefire was agreed, then negotiations between Ukraine
00:13:19Ukraine and Russia could begin. But without, of course, any time limit and without any guarantee of any kind of
00:13:31satisfactory outcome. So that, of course, goes completely against the Russian insistence that there must be some kind of
00:13:43commitment from the United States of commitment from the United States from the Western powers or Ukraine itself as to what the
00:13:49final agreement should be. That looks to the Russians and, of course, is another device by the Ukrainians to go back to the
00:13:59Minsk formula, a formula whereby a supposed timetable and route map was set out for future negotiations to achieve a
00:14:15negotiated solution to what was at that time still an internal Ukrainian conflict, but one which the Ukrainian government,
00:14:23Ukrainian leadership used used as a mechanism to spin things out as long as possible so that the Ukrainian military could be
00:14:31rebuilt in the way that Western leaders like Angela Merkel and Francois Allande, the two leaders who provided guarantees for the
00:14:44implementation of the implementation of the Minsk agreement, those two leaders have agreed actually happened. So, in
00:14:54effect, Zelensky wrecked the entire negotiation in London before it had even begun. He made it clear that
00:15:09that Yanmak and the foreign and defense ministers of Ukraine would not discuss the Kellogg plan, that there was no
00:15:17possibility, no chance that the Kellogg plan would be adopted as a result of that meeting, and no chance that
00:15:28that Witkoff would be able to go to Moscow with the agreement to the Kellogg plan from the Ukrainians and the
00:15:40Europeans as well. So, what then happened was very interesting. Firstly, the meeting itself was, well, we were
00:15:54initially told that it had been downgraded to a meeting of officials, when the Americans realised that
00:16:01Zelensky's people, his delegation, was not interested in negotiating or talking about or agreeing to the
00:16:10Kellogg plan. The two top US officials present, Rubio and Witkoff, quit the meeting. They gave the
00:16:23they gave their excuses and they left, leaving Kellogg, the original author of the Kellogg, of the Kellogg plan, to face the
00:16:35Ukrainians by himself. The departure of Rubio and Witkoff caused the British, the French, the Europeans also to scale down
00:16:49their representation at the meeting, so that it subsequently became, as we were told, a meeting purely by officials. But, of
00:17:01course, there is another factor at play here as well. And that is that, from a European point of view, given the extent of
00:17:13Europe's commitment to Ukraine, the extent of Europe's desire to keep the United States involved in the conflict in
00:17:23Ukraine, it is imperative that if the Kellogg plan is rejected, it should appear to have been rejected, not by the
00:17:33Ukrainians, by the Ukrainians, but by the Russians, so that it would be the Russians, not the Ukrainians, who would be blamed by
00:17:41Kellogg, other top American officials, and ultimately Trump himself for the failure of the Kellogg plan, which, to repeat
00:17:53again, is now clearly the official American plan to end the war. And the hope is that if that happens, if Trump and the
00:18:06Americans blame the Russians for the failure of the Kellogg plan, then the Americans will recommit to Ukraine, they will
00:18:15resume large shipments of weapons to Ukraine, they will resume economic assistance to Ukraine, they will continue to
00:18:23share intelligence with Ukraine, they will go back to the policy, in other words, of the Biden administration, and
00:18:30perhaps, possibly, they might escalate the economic war, the sanctions war against Russia as well. So, it is essential, it was
00:18:42essential, it was essential for the Europeans, that it appeared that it was the Russians who were rejecting
00:18:50the Kellogg plan, rather than the Ukrainians. And that explains an article that then appeared in the Financial
00:18:58Times, which caused a great deal of confusion for a short time. Now, the article was briefly the lead article in the
00:19:11Financial Times. After about a few hours, it was relegated to a lesser position, in fact, over the course of
00:19:23yesterday, it was interesting to see how it went from the lead article, to being a less important article, to
00:19:29being a still less important article. And today, though you can still find it if you search on the Financial
00:19:38Times website. Well, it no longer appears as of the time of making of this programme on the Financial
00:19:46Times front page. Anyway, this is what this article says. Vladimir Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion.
00:19:54US floats recognition of Russian annexation as peace plan efforts continue. And then the article says the
00:20:10following. Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine at the current frontline as part of
00:20:16efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter.
00:20:26immediately ought to raise alarm bells because obviously we're not being told who these people are.
00:20:38We're not being told whether they are officials of any government, any particular government, whether they're
00:20:44diplomats, whether they're whether they're American, or Russian, or European, or British, or indeed Ukrainian, or
00:20:54whether quite possibly they might be journalists, reporters, academics, people, in other words, who are
00:21:02completely unconnected with any government, but who might be loosely defined as people familiar with the matter.
00:21:12Anyway, that's, as I said, the first warning. And then the article goes on to say, the Russian president told Steve
00:21:19Whitgolf, Trump's special envoy, during a meeting in St. Petersburg earlier this month, that Moscow could relinquish
00:21:28its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv's control, three of the people said.
00:21:39And we are then told that the US has since floated ideas for a possible settlement that includes Washington
00:21:48recognising Russian ownership of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, the people added, as well as at least acknowledging the Kremlin's
00:21:57Kremlin's de facto control over the parts of the four regions it currently holds. The proposal is the first
00:22:06formal indication Putin has given since the war's early months, three years ago, that Russia could step back from its
00:22:15maximalist demands to end the invasion. Now, is any of this true? Now, I think the answer is clearly no.
00:22:24And it's not just because Russian officials like none other than Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, have made it quite clear that Russia continues to insist on the transfer of the totality of the four regions to Russia as part of any peace agreement.
00:22:46And Lavrov has been speaking about this since the meeting between Witkoff and Putin, just saying. But there's also been confirmation already in the American media that Putin made that very same point clear to Witkoff when they did actually meet in St.
00:23:15in St. Petersburg on the occasion referred to in this Financial Times article.
00:23:22Specifically, Bloomberg, a couple of days ago, said that there'd been a meeting at which Witkoff told Trump that the fastest way to end the conflict was to accept the Russian demand that the entirety of the four regions be transferred to Russia.
00:23:42And then Kellogg, who was also present at this meeting, pushed back and said that the Ukrainians would never accept a proposal like that, and that Trump heard the two out and then made no decision.
00:24:02So that was said after the meeting between Putin in St. Petersburg.
00:24:09And that basically tells us that at that meeting in St. Petersburg, Putin reiterated his position that the four regions must be transferred in their totality to Russia.
00:24:22To Russia. Now, I've already said that I have information from a source who has access to information provided by the Kremlin to the Duma to the Russian parliament.
00:24:35And this source has told me the same thing that in the guidance provided by the Kremlin to the Russian parliament, the Russian, the Kremlin has explained, has confirmed that Putin continued.
00:24:57To insist on the transfer of the four regions in their totality to Russia during his meeting with Witkoff in St. Petersburg.
00:25:11So why did this article appear? Well, it could be that these people, these mysterious people who are informed of the matter, aren't really very well informed of the matter.
00:25:23And that they just don't know what they're talking about and that they probably have heard all kinds of things and are probably familiar with the American proposals and assume that Putin has agreed to them, which is not impossible.
00:25:37But I don't think so myself. Subsequently, further down in the article, there is a reference to European officials.
00:25:48And we're told that these European officials were briefed on US efforts to end the war and that they cautioned that Putin would probably use the apparent concession as a bait to lure Trump into accepting Russia's other demands and forcing them on Ukraine as a fait accompli.
00:26:07Which looks to me very much like indicating that these mysterious people who are informed of the matter are those same European officials.
00:26:18But that is a guess. And I'm not going to pretend that I know this for a fact.
00:26:24Anyway, this is what I think. And let me stress, this is again my own theory here, though I think it's as good as any.
00:26:32But it seems to me that this article that appeared in the Financial Times reporting a significant concession that Putin is supposed to have made to Wyckoff, which.
00:26:48All of the evidence coming out of Russia suggests Putin never made to Wyckoff was intended to cause the Russians to deny the story in the Financial Times.
00:27:08Now, had that happened, the Europeans would have been able to say, look, it's not just Zelensky who is rejecting the Kellogg plan.
00:27:18It's also the Russians. Why are we even here talking about all of these proposals that the Americans are coming up with?
00:27:29Zelensky himself is not really at fault here because the Russians are refusing to give up their demands, their so-called maximalist demands for the four regions.
00:27:42And therefore, that means that it is they not Zelensky who are ultimately responsible for the collapse of the negotiations.
00:27:52So this is what I think this is all about. It was the purpose behind it was to provoke an outright Russian denial of this whole story.
00:28:04A statement from the Kremlin that Putin never made that concession to Wyckoff and that the whole story, therefore, is false.
00:28:15Well, shortly after the story in the Financial Times appeared, I think it's fair to say within an hour, the Kremlin did rush out an answer.
00:28:26But of course, it was much more nuanced than the answer that I think some people, the people who were behind this article, the people informed about the matter might have anticipated.
00:28:43Because Peskov, Putin's spokesman, was contacted by one of the Russian news agencies, Ria Novosti, which is state owned.
00:28:55So as I said, this is clearly an arranged statement. Anyway, Peskov did not straightforwardly say this story in the Financial Times is untrue.
00:29:08He said that you shouldn't believe everything you read because there's lots of fake information that is circulating, including information that appears in the most eminent newspapers and media publications.
00:29:26And it's quite clear that he was referring to this Financial Times article, which is after what he was being asked about.
00:29:33And that he's basically saying that the story is a fake.
00:29:38But even though that's clearly the meaning behind his words, he didn't straightforwardly say that the story is a fake, leaving it.
00:29:53Leaving it open for people perhaps to think otherwise, or perhaps more to the point, keeping the focus on Zelensky as the man, the person who had wrecked the discussions in London.
00:30:16Making it clear that it's not the Russians, the Russians aren't involved.
00:30:21It's Zelensky and no one else who has rejected outright the Kellogg plan at this point.
00:30:29And that if you are angered, angered and upset about that fact, then you should be angered and upset with him.
00:30:37Now, there will be many people who will discuss and comment about Zelensky's actions over the last 24 hours in their own ways.
00:30:50I've already seen articles appearing in, say, the Daily Telegraph that says that the Kellogg plan is a surrender to the Russians.
00:31:00There will be no doubt attempts to say that Zelensky is heroically defending Ukraine's cause and that he is resisting American pressure.
00:31:12We were reading all of yesterday about the immense pressure that the Ukrainians were under to accede to the Kellogg plan, how they were in fact being presented with an ultimatum to accept the Kellogg plan.
00:31:29And that they bravely resisted that pressure and that Zelensky heroically resisted demands in effect for Ukraine's capitulation.
00:31:42Already that narrative is starting to be spun and it is starting to appear, especially in Europe.
00:31:50Given that the reality is that the Kellogg plan, which incredibly, as it turns out, actually demands that Russia return some territory that it has captured to Ukraine, especially in Kherson region.
00:32:11Not a lot of territory, but at least an impossible demand for the Russians to accept.
00:32:20Given that the Kellogg plan is absolutely the best that Ukraine can possibly hope to achieve at this time, given that it is losing the war.
00:32:32I obviously don't agree with this view, this positive view of what Zelensky has just done.
00:32:42I have to say it to me, it is a repeat on a larger canvas of the Oval Office episode all over again.
00:32:56Zelensky, on that occasion, came to Washington.
00:33:01He was supposed to agree to the mineral rights extraction deal.
00:33:05The Americans were putting some gentle pressure on him at that time to move towards a ceasefire.
00:33:12They asked him to turn up in a suit and tie as an indication that he was genuinely seeking peace.
00:33:20He threw that all out of the window.
00:33:23He came in his usual battle fatigues, if I can call them that.
00:33:29He was extraordinarily insulting to his American hosts.
00:33:35He continued to insist that Ukraine could not accept a ceasefire without security guarantees from the United States.
00:33:45that Ukraine should get security guarantees in return for agreeing to the mineral rights extraction deal.
00:33:55He said, used a particularly ugly word referring to Vice President Vance.
00:34:08He used it under his breath, but it was clearly audible and picked up by the microphones.
00:34:15He behaved extraordinarily, outrageously, in my opinion, over the course of that meeting in the Oval Office.
00:34:23And in effect, he's done the same thing all over again.
00:34:26He's told the Americans, look, I don't appreciate in any way what you're doing.
00:34:30I don't accept or agree with any of the things that you are doing.
00:34:37You must give me everything I want.
00:34:41And if you don't, well, the fault is entirely on you.
00:34:48To me, I have to say this.
00:34:51What happened yesterday, very much like what happened during that meeting in the Oval Office,
00:34:57came across as a tantrum by a spoiled child who has been denied his choice.
00:35:07It did not sound to me, it did not come across to me at all like the conduct of a leader, a statesman,
00:35:20responsible acting responsibly for the long term welfare of his nation and people.
00:35:28Just saying.
00:35:29What Zelensky, in essence, is demanding is that the United States win for him his war against Russia.
00:35:45He knows perfectly well that Ukraine cannot win the war by itself.
00:35:50But he insists that the United States is under some kind of obligation, unclear what sort of obligation that is.
00:36:01But anyway, under some kind of obligation to win the war for him and for Ukraine on the conditions that he wants,
00:36:14which is Russia's total capitulation and to get a sense of how extreme Ukrainian demands have become.
00:36:28Well, it might be worth considering the latest demands that the Ukrainians are making of Germany,
00:36:37the other major arms supplier to Ukraine set out by the former ambassador,
00:36:46Ukraine's former ambassador to Germany, Mr. Melnick, who has now been appointed to,
00:36:54who has now been appointed Ukraine's permanent representative to the United Nations.
00:37:01And it is truly quite extraordinary.
00:37:04There's a good summary of all of this on Simplicius The Thinker's blog.
00:37:10But basically, he is demanding, Mr. Melnick is demanding,
00:37:16and there's no reason to doubt that in this Melnick is being, in effect, Zelensky's voice.
00:37:25He is demanding that the Germans themselves go ahead and provide Ukraine with 86 billion euros of defence assistance between now and 2029.
00:37:47Then he also says that Ukraine should be given from the by the EU a further 372 billion euros by 2029, the rest of the EU.
00:38:02And then he also quite straightforwardly says that Ukraine should be given 550 billion euros in total in defence aid over the next four years.
00:38:16That is to say, by 2029, 550 billion euros, half a trillion euros between now and 2029 over four years.
00:38:33And he says that this would be a huge warning to Putin, which it certainly would be.
00:38:39But warning, which, well, I'm not even going to discuss what kind of a warning that is.
00:38:45But he also wants immediately 150 Taurus missiles, which, of course, the Germans would have to operate.
00:38:54As Simplicius, the thinker correctly points out, that is the entire arsenal of Taurus missiles that Germany possesses, which it turns out are actually operational.
00:39:09Germany has a stockpile of 600 Taurus missiles, but only a quarter of these are in an operational condition.
00:39:17So Melnick wants all of those to be provided to Ukraine now.
00:39:24And he also says that Germany should provide 30 percent of its fighter jets, 45 Euro fighters, 30 Tornadoes, 25 NH 90 TTH helicopters and 15 Eurocopter Tigers.
00:39:4430 percent of Germany's air force.
00:39:48I'm going to suggest that, again, that would mean the entirety of Germany's fighter jet force that is actually actually in a fully operating condition.
00:40:03And he goes on to say that the same 30 percent rule could also be introduced for other weapons systems from the army's inventory in order to release the following critical deliveries.
00:40:15100 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, 115 Puma and 130 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 130 Boxers and 300 Fuchs armored transport vehicles, 20 Mars 2 rocket artillery systems with ammunition.
00:40:35That the Mars is the German adaptation of the American tracked multiple launch rocket system out of which the high Mars system emerged.
00:40:50And then he goes on to say that at the same time orders would be placed for a massive modernization of the Bundeswehr in order to quickly replace the weapons system supplied quickly replace the weapons system supply.
00:41:08So what Melnick and as I said, he is now Ukraine's ambassador to the United Nations is demanding is that Germany should supply the entirety of its operational equipment.
00:41:26And lastly, the capital, he wants Germany to help confiscate 200 billion, the 200 billion frozen Russian assets, which obviously should also be provided to Ukraine, which if they are, well, that would mean that the total amount that Ukraine would receive.
00:41:56Over the next four years would be close to 700 billion euros, presumably of defense assistance.
00:42:07Now, one can treat this as comical, if you wish.
00:42:16Simplicius the thinker does, and to some extent.
00:42:20And it is indeed fantastical.
00:42:23But to me again, what it demonstrates, just as what Zelensky, Zelensky's comments demonstrate, is this incredible, irrational, unreasonable sense of entitlement.
00:42:42Now, a few weeks ago, about three weeks ago, when Putin was asked, why do the Russians not come after Zelensky himself?
00:42:54I remember discussing this.
00:42:57Putin actually said in reply that there was no sense for the Russians in doing that because the Ukrainian leadership,
00:43:06and he was clearly referring to Zelensky, are irrational, and that removing Zelensky from the scene in that way, whilst there was a war ongoing,
00:43:18would simply mean, might mean, that Ukraine would replace an irrational leader with a much more rational one,
00:43:34who might be ultimately a much more dangerous adversary for Russia.
00:43:39Now, you could argue that the events of the last 24 hours confirm the validity of what Putin said.
00:43:53Putin, as a result of what Zelensky has done, if Witkoff does indeed go to Moscow this week,
00:44:05is not going to be presented with a Kellogg plan, which he would be bound to reject,
00:44:14but which Zelensky and the Ukrainians had accepted.
00:44:21So Putin is not going to have to go through the,
00:44:26he's not going to need to reject the Kellogg plan in that way,
00:44:33because at the moment, the Kellogg plan isn't a Ukrainian,
00:44:41it isn't even a formal proposal, since the Ukrainians have already rejected it.
00:44:46So, from Putin's point of view, this takes the weight of him.
00:44:53He isn't forced to reject something that he's bound to reject,
00:44:59and that he really doesn't like.
00:45:01But, I have to say this, eccentric, though Zelensky often is,
00:45:12very often is,
00:45:14I'm not sure that any other Ukrainian leader
00:45:18would, in fact, ultimately behave very differently,
00:45:23because this extraordinary sense of entitlement,
00:45:27this insistence on Ukraine's maximalist demands,
00:45:34and they generally are maximalist, in this case, being fulfilled,
00:45:38they're maximalist because they are unachievable and unrealistic,
00:45:44that this insistence on maximalist demands being achieved
00:45:48appears to me to be true of the entire Ukrainian political system.
00:45:57Zelensky insists on this,
00:45:59but I remember that Poroshenko,
00:46:01the former president,
00:46:02who sometimes puts himself forward
00:46:05as a more reasonable alternative to Zelensky,
00:46:07it seems to me is fundamentally no different.
00:46:11I remember how, at the time when the Minsk Agreement was signed,
00:46:16at the meeting in Minsk in February 2015,
00:46:21it took hours for the joint efforts of the Germans,
00:46:26the French and the Russians
00:46:28to get him to sign an agreement,
00:46:32the Minsk Agreement,
00:46:33which he never had the slightest intention of ever honouring,
00:46:38as he has straightforwardly admitted himself.
00:46:43Even though he signed the leader statement,
00:46:46which committed him to see the Minsk Agreement implemented,
00:46:51he straightforwardly said that his signature,
00:46:54as far as he was concerned,
00:46:56bound him to nothing.
00:46:57And, in fact,
00:46:59even though he constantly pretended,
00:47:02for years afterwards,
00:47:04that he was indeed committed to the Minsk Agreement,
00:47:08in reality,
00:47:09he went out of his way to sabotage it.
00:47:14I have heard nothing from Poroshenko
00:47:19to suggest that if he replaced Zelensky,
00:47:23his position would be any more reasonable
00:47:26or tractable than Zelensky's is.
00:47:29He might articulate his positions
00:47:32in more reasonably sounding ways.
00:47:36He might make statements
00:47:40that could be seen
00:47:43as indicating greater flexibility
00:47:49and a greater willingness
00:47:51to compromise,
00:47:54but I don't think there would be any truth
00:47:56behind them.
00:47:58And, of course,
00:47:59the other person who has been talked about,
00:48:01Yulia Timoshenko,
00:48:02well, she has,
00:48:04in effect,
00:48:06accepted,
00:48:07publicly accepted,
00:48:09the Kellogg plan.
00:48:10She's talked about freezing the conflict
00:48:13on Korean lines,
00:48:15which is not that different
00:48:17from what the Kellogg plan is suggesting.
00:48:21But the result has been
00:48:24that she has become a marginalised figure
00:48:27in Ukrainian politics.
00:48:29And I think it is only people in the United States,
00:48:32some people in the United States,
00:48:34who believe seriously
00:48:36that she can become a leader of Ukraine again.
00:48:40So,
00:48:42this attitude of Zelensky's
00:48:44is, in my opinion,
00:48:47an attitude
00:48:47common with
00:48:49the entire
00:48:50Ukrainian political class.
00:48:53Meanwhile,
00:48:54and I come back to
00:48:55what I've said in the past,
00:48:57even if I am wrong about this,
00:49:00I don't think
00:49:01it's going to be possible
00:49:04to get round Zelensky anyway,
00:49:07because I believe
00:49:09that the moment
00:49:11when it would have been possible
00:49:13to remove him from power
00:49:15has gone.
00:49:17There was an interesting article
00:49:19in The Economist,
00:49:21a publication
00:49:24that can
00:49:24in no possible way
00:49:28be described as pro-Russian
00:49:30or hostile
00:49:32to Ukraine.
00:49:34Anyway,
00:49:35there was an interesting article
00:49:36in The Economist
00:49:38recently,
00:49:39which,
00:49:40again,
00:49:41was very critical
00:49:42of Zelensky,
00:49:43admitted that
00:49:44the political
00:49:46situation
00:49:48in Ukraine
00:49:49today
00:49:49is,
00:49:50in effect,
00:49:51a wasteland,
00:49:52that Zelensky
00:49:53has systematically
00:49:54undermined
00:49:55and removed
00:49:56all of his
00:49:57political opponents,
00:49:59that he has achieved
00:50:00a complete monopoly
00:50:01of political power
00:50:02and that,
00:50:03in effect,
00:50:04it is impossible
00:50:05to displace him.
00:50:07Moreover,
00:50:08by taking the stance
00:50:09that he is taking,
00:50:12Zelensky may be
00:50:13taking a position
00:50:15which is unpopular
00:50:17with wider
00:50:19Ukrainian society,
00:50:21not that that is
00:50:23ever easy to judge,
00:50:24but which is
00:50:26passionately
00:50:27supported
00:50:28by
00:50:30those people
00:50:32in Ukraine
00:50:33who
00:50:34have guns
00:50:36and who,
00:50:38in a political
00:50:39crisis,
00:50:40might be most
00:50:41likely to use
00:50:42them.
00:50:43And, of course,
00:50:44I am referring
00:50:45to those people
00:50:46who are euphemistically
00:50:47referred to
00:50:48in the West
00:50:49as the far right,
00:50:51who are now
00:50:52well-organized
00:50:53in various brigades
00:50:55and who have
00:50:56established
00:50:56a significant
00:50:57presence
00:50:58within Ukraine's
00:50:59security forces.
00:51:01And, recently,
00:51:02the most prominent
00:51:03of these,
00:51:04the best known
00:51:04of these,
00:51:05the Azov Brigade
00:51:06has been massively
00:51:08expanded
00:51:09and an entire
00:51:11core
00:51:12of Ukraine's
00:51:13National Guard,
00:51:15which,
00:51:15though it does
00:51:16engage in fighting
00:51:18on the battlefronts,
00:51:20is essentially
00:51:21an internal
00:51:22security
00:51:23organization.
00:51:25A whole
00:51:26core of the
00:51:27National Guard
00:51:28has been
00:51:29created
00:51:30and built
00:51:31around
00:51:31one of the
00:51:33units
00:51:33of the
00:51:34Azov Brigade.
00:51:36So,
00:51:37very difficult
00:51:39to see
00:51:40how it would
00:51:41be possible
00:51:42to remove
00:51:43Zelensky
00:51:44from power
00:51:45through any
00:51:47internal
00:51:48coup.
00:51:49I know
00:51:50some people
00:51:51still float
00:51:52that possibility,
00:51:53but what
00:51:54might have
00:51:54been a
00:51:55relatively
00:51:56straightforward
00:51:57thing to
00:51:57do one
00:51:58or two
00:51:59years ago,
00:52:00it seems
00:52:01to me that
00:52:02the possibility
00:52:04of doing
00:52:05that has
00:52:06passed.
00:52:07Moreover,
00:52:08the further
00:52:10factor is
00:52:11that,
00:52:12though the
00:52:12Americans
00:52:13by now can
00:52:15be under
00:52:15no illusions
00:52:16about what
00:52:17an impossible
00:52:18individual
00:52:18Zelensky is.
00:52:21And if they
00:52:22had any
00:52:22remaining
00:52:22doubts,
00:52:23if even
00:52:24Kellogg had
00:52:26any remaining
00:52:26doubts,
00:52:27then the
00:52:28events of the
00:52:28last 24
00:52:29hours ought
00:52:31to disillusion
00:52:32them.
00:52:33I'm afraid in
00:52:34Kellogg's case,
00:52:35I doubt that
00:52:36it will,
00:52:36but they will,
00:52:37but that's
00:52:38another issue.
00:52:39But if the
00:52:43Americans had
00:52:44any doubts
00:52:44up to now
00:52:46and really
00:52:46had become
00:52:48disillusioned
00:52:50with Zelensky
00:52:50and had
00:52:51come to
00:52:52recognise
00:52:53fully what
00:52:54an impossible
00:52:55individual he
00:52:56is and how
00:52:57negotiating with
00:52:58him on
00:53:00anything but
00:53:01his terms
00:53:02is a
00:53:04completely
00:53:04hopeless
00:53:05exercise,
00:53:06well, the
00:53:07Europeans are
00:53:07different.
00:53:08they continue
00:53:09to remain
00:53:10fully committed
00:53:11to Zelensky's
00:53:13cause.
00:53:14The British
00:53:15Prime Minister
00:53:16Keir Starmer
00:53:16has recently
00:53:17been speaking
00:53:18of his
00:53:18immense
00:53:19admiration
00:53:20for the
00:53:21Ukrainian
00:53:21army.
00:53:22He talks
00:53:23all the
00:53:23time about
00:53:24how the
00:53:25Ukrainian
00:53:26army has
00:53:26performed
00:53:27splendidly
00:53:27in the
00:53:28war and
00:53:28how their
00:53:29heroic
00:53:29struggle
00:53:30needs to
00:53:31be rewarded
00:53:32by a
00:53:33just and
00:53:33lasting
00:53:34peace.
00:53:36Kayakalas,
00:53:37the
00:53:38European
00:53:39Union's
00:53:40high
00:53:40representative
00:53:41for foreign
00:53:42policy has
00:53:43said, well,
00:53:44if the
00:53:44Americans
00:53:45recognise
00:53:46Crimea as
00:53:47Russian,
00:53:48that's up
00:53:49to them,
00:53:50but we
00:53:50never will.
00:53:52Other
00:53:52European
00:53:53officials
00:53:54never fail
00:53:57to express
00:53:58their admiration
00:53:59for Zelensky
00:54:01and for
00:54:02Ukraine's
00:54:03cause.
00:54:05And they
00:54:06continue to
00:54:07insist that
00:54:08support for
00:54:10Ukraine must
00:54:11be provided
00:54:12and that the
00:54:14only outcome,
00:54:15as Ursula von der
00:54:17Leyen wrote
00:54:19only recently,
00:54:21that the only
00:54:22outcome that
00:54:23is acceptable
00:54:24is a
00:54:26Ukrainian
00:54:26victory
00:54:27which will
00:54:28supposedly put
00:54:29Ukraine in
00:54:30a stronger
00:54:31negotiating
00:54:32position with
00:54:33the Russians
00:54:34than it would
00:54:35otherwise be.
00:54:36A fatuous
00:54:37comment, by
00:54:38the way, but
00:54:39that is in
00:54:40fact what she
00:54:40wrote.
00:54:43And, well,
00:54:45those are her
00:54:46words.
00:54:48So,
00:54:49how does one
00:54:50get round the
00:54:51problem of
00:54:52Zelensky?
00:54:53He's not
00:54:53going to
00:54:53accept the
00:54:54Kellogg
00:54:54plan.
00:54:55He's made
00:54:55that absolutely
00:54:56clear.
00:54:57I don't
00:54:57think there
00:54:58should be
00:54:58any
00:54:58expectations
00:54:59that he
00:55:00will go
00:55:00back on
00:55:01that.
00:55:02On the
00:55:03subject of
00:55:03a ceasefire,
00:55:05he appeared
00:55:06to accept
00:55:07because Yermak
00:55:09and the
00:55:10others in
00:55:11Jeddah did
00:55:12accept an
00:55:14unconditional
00:55:14ceasefire and
00:55:16he harps on
00:55:17about that
00:55:17incessantly.
00:55:19But when he
00:55:19was offered
00:55:20ceasefires over
00:55:21the last
00:55:22few weeks,
00:55:24he rejected
00:55:25them, or
00:55:26rather he
00:55:26undermined
00:55:27them.
00:55:28There was
00:55:28the energy
00:55:29truce.
00:55:31Putin
00:55:31agreed to
00:55:32it.
00:55:33Zelensky
00:55:33initially
00:55:35seemed
00:55:36doubtful.
00:55:37Eventually,
00:55:38after intense
00:55:39pressure from
00:55:39the Americans
00:55:40and the
00:55:41Europeans,
00:55:42he appeared
00:55:43to come
00:55:43round.
00:55:45There is
00:55:45universal
00:55:46acceptance
00:55:47that
00:55:48Ukraine
00:55:49paid no
00:55:50attention to
00:55:50the energy
00:55:51truce and
00:55:52continued to
00:55:53launch drone
00:55:54strikes against
00:55:55Russian energy
00:55:56installations
00:55:57throughout the
00:55:58period of the
00:55:59energy truce.
00:56:01Ukraine was
00:56:02offered by the
00:56:04Russians, by
00:56:04Putin himself,
00:56:06a 30-hour
00:56:07ceasefire over
00:56:09the Easter
00:56:10holiday.
00:56:11the Russians
00:56:16have noted
00:56:195,000
00:56:20violations of
00:56:22the ceasefire.
00:56:23We've now
00:56:24had more
00:56:25information about
00:56:27those violations
00:56:28and I'm going to
00:56:29say it straight
00:56:30away, it turns
00:56:31out that they
00:56:32were much more
00:56:33significant and
00:56:34had much more
00:56:35significant
00:56:36consequences than
00:56:38Putin, who
00:56:40clearly doesn't
00:56:40want to be
00:56:41criticised for
00:56:42agreeing to a
00:56:44ceasefire that
00:56:45the Ukrainians
00:56:46were never going
00:56:46to honour and
00:56:48which would result
00:56:49in significant
00:56:50losses for the
00:56:52Russians on the
00:56:53battlefronts.
00:56:54Anyway, the
00:56:56Ukrainian
00:56:57violations turned
00:56:58out to have
00:56:59been significantly
00:57:00more serious
00:57:01than Putin
00:57:03himself initially
00:57:04let on.
00:57:05So it's clear,
00:57:06for example,
00:57:07that the
00:57:08Ukrainians used
00:57:09the ceasefire,
00:57:10I say it's
00:57:10clear, the
00:57:11Russians say,
00:57:12but I've no
00:57:13doubt that this
00:57:13is true, that
00:57:15the Ukrainians
00:57:15used the
00:57:16ceasefire, the
00:57:17Easter ceasefire,
00:57:18to reoccupy at
00:57:19least part of
00:57:20the territory
00:57:21of the
00:57:22monastery, the
00:57:25village of
00:57:25Gornal in
00:57:26Kursk region,
00:57:28so that the
00:57:28Russians had to
00:57:30battle and
00:57:31fight in order
00:57:32to drive them
00:57:33out of the
00:57:34building of
00:57:35that monastery
00:57:35all over
00:57:37again.
00:57:38The Ukrainians
00:57:39used the
00:57:41ceasefire to
00:57:42recapture the
00:57:42village of
00:57:43Lognia, an
00:57:45important village
00:57:46close to the
00:57:47Ukrainian supply
00:57:48lines in
00:57:50Sumy region.
00:57:51The Ukrainians
00:57:53also used the
00:57:54ceasefire to
00:57:55try to improve
00:57:56their positions in
00:57:57the Kupianski
00:57:58region, but not
00:57:59apparently very
00:58:00successfully, and
00:58:02perhaps most
00:58:03most striking of
00:58:04all, the
00:58:05Ukrainians used
00:58:07the Easter
00:58:08ceasefire, all
00:58:09of this extra
00:58:10information, I
00:58:12stress comes from
00:58:12Russian sources, but
00:58:14it appears to be
00:58:15true.
00:58:15Anyway, the
00:58:16Ukrainians used the
00:58:17Easter ceasefire to
00:58:19regain lost ground
00:58:21in southwestern
00:58:25Donbass, in the
00:58:27areas near
00:58:28Novopavlovka and
00:58:30Bogatyr, where the
00:58:32Russians had
00:58:32previously made
00:58:33significant advances.
00:58:36So, the
00:58:37Ukrainians may say
00:58:41that they are in
00:58:41favour of ceasefires,
00:58:43but in practical
00:58:44terms, they never
00:58:45are.
00:58:46The Europeans
00:58:47never criticised
00:58:48them for this.
00:58:49The Ukrainians
00:58:52have just
00:58:52sabotaged the
00:58:54Kellogg
00:58:56plan, but we
00:58:58see no real
00:58:59criticism of
00:59:00Zelensky.
00:59:02As a result of
00:59:03that, Zelensky
00:59:05behaved in an
00:59:06incredibly boorish
00:59:08way when he met
00:59:09with Vance and
00:59:11Trump in the
00:59:12Oval Office, all
00:59:14the European
00:59:14leaders came
00:59:15out and
00:59:16supported him.
00:59:17he's not
00:59:20going to change
00:59:21his stance, he's
00:59:23not going to
00:59:23shift his
00:59:24position on the
00:59:25Kellogg
00:59:26plan, he's
00:59:27going to
00:59:27insist on his
00:59:28demands being
00:59:30met, he's
00:59:32going to
00:59:33continue to
00:59:34work towards
00:59:35the situation
00:59:36where the
00:59:37United States
00:59:38becomes directly
00:59:39involved in the
00:59:41war against the
00:59:42Russians and
00:59:43wins it for
00:59:44him.
00:59:44He's now
00:59:45spreading more
00:59:46stories,
00:59:47about Chinese
00:59:49involvement in
00:59:50the war.
00:59:52About a week
00:59:53ago, two
00:59:53weeks ago, he
00:59:54produced photographs
00:59:55of two Chinese
00:59:57soldiers and
00:59:58then claimed
01:00:00that this meant
01:00:01that China was
01:00:02supporting Russia,
01:00:04was directly
01:00:05involved in the
01:00:05war in some
01:00:06way, though
01:00:07the presence of
01:00:11two Chinese
01:00:12prisoners who
01:00:13are almost
01:00:13certainly volunteers
01:00:14in no way
01:00:16proves that.
01:00:17And he's
01:00:18been saying
01:00:18since then
01:00:19that China is
01:00:20now providing
01:00:21weapons to
01:00:22Russia, he's
01:00:23provided no
01:00:24evidence of
01:00:25this.
01:00:25Again, it's
01:00:26clearly an
01:00:28attempt to
01:00:29bait the
01:00:30Americans into
01:00:31becoming involved
01:00:32in the war.
01:00:33He is never
01:00:34going to change
01:00:35his stance, and
01:00:36he's never going
01:00:37to really pursue
01:00:38a policy of
01:00:39peace, and
01:00:41he is never
01:00:42going to
01:00:43compromise on
01:00:45Ukraine's
01:00:46demands, and
01:00:48he's never going
01:00:49to negotiate in
01:00:50good faith with
01:00:51the Russians.
01:00:51And, as I
01:00:54said, I don't
01:00:56think he is
01:00:57removable.
01:00:59Now, we
01:01:00have been here
01:01:01before.
01:01:03President
01:01:04Thieu in
01:01:06Vietnam rejected
01:01:08all of the
01:01:10peace plans
01:01:11proposed by the
01:01:13Nixon
01:01:13administration in
01:01:15the early
01:01:151970s, and
01:01:17basically went
01:01:18on doing so
01:01:19until the
01:01:20eve of his
01:01:21departure from
01:01:22Saigon, President
01:01:24Algani in
01:01:26Afghanistan did
01:01:27exactly the
01:01:28same.
01:01:30Zelenskyy is
01:01:31just the last
01:01:32in a succession
01:01:33of leaders,
01:01:34Ukrainian
01:01:35leaders, of
01:01:36leaders of the
01:01:37United States
01:01:38who are
01:01:39supported, who
01:01:40take these
01:01:43kind of
01:01:45dogmatic
01:01:46positions, and
01:01:49given
01:01:51that the
01:01:52Americans, for
01:01:54the last ten
01:01:55years, have
01:01:57been giving the
01:01:58Ukrainians
01:01:59everything that
01:02:00they wanted,
01:02:03it's back, it's
01:02:04completely
01:02:05unsurprising
01:02:06that that is the
01:02:08stance that they
01:02:09will continue to
01:02:10take.
01:02:11now, can I
01:02:13just say, on
01:02:16this, that
01:02:17one saw
01:02:20more of
01:02:22this expectation
01:02:23from the
01:02:24Ukrainians that
01:02:25despite
01:02:26Donald Trump's
01:02:28Rubio's and
01:02:30Rubio's and
01:02:30Witgoff's and
01:02:31even Kellogg's
01:02:32statement, that
01:02:33this proposal
01:02:34that was made
01:02:36this week was
01:02:37the last chance
01:02:38that if this
01:02:39wasn't settled
01:02:40this week, the
01:02:42United States
01:02:42would pull out
01:02:43of the
01:02:43negotiations.
01:02:45Well, Zelensky
01:02:46clearly doesn't
01:02:47believe that.
01:02:49And just as
01:02:50Thieu in
01:02:52Vietnam didn't
01:02:53believe that the
01:02:54Americans would
01:02:55pull the rug on
01:02:55him, finally, he
01:02:57assumed that if he
01:02:58took a hard line,
01:03:00they would always
01:03:00come back and
01:03:01recommit.
01:03:02And Al-Ghani in
01:03:03Afghanistan appears
01:03:04to have believed
01:03:06the same thing.
01:03:07And in the
01:03:11case of
01:03:12Zelensky, he
01:03:14again made
01:03:15that pretty
01:03:16clear over the
01:03:17course of his
01:03:18speech yesterday.
01:03:19He said that
01:03:20there was no
01:03:22way that the
01:03:24Americans could
01:03:24simply walk out
01:03:26of the negotiation
01:03:27process in the
01:03:28way that they
01:03:28said.
01:03:29He seemed to
01:03:30think that the
01:03:31Americans were
01:03:32not serious
01:03:33about that and
01:03:36that they would
01:03:37ultimately have
01:03:39to bend to
01:03:41his will because
01:03:43they cannot
01:03:44afford a
01:03:46straightforward
01:03:47defeat by the
01:03:50Russians in
01:03:51Ukraine.
01:03:52Now, here, the
01:03:58Americans, Donald
01:04:00Trump, face a
01:04:02serious test
01:04:03because, as I
01:04:06said, if the
01:04:07events of the
01:04:08last three months
01:04:09haven't confirmed
01:04:11that Zelensky, the
01:04:14Ukrainians, will
01:04:15never agree to a
01:04:17peace agreement on
01:04:18anything other than
01:04:19their own terms.
01:04:20Americans, and if
01:04:21the last 24 hours
01:04:23don't do that, I
01:04:26can't see what
01:04:27will.
01:04:28And besides, if
01:04:29the Russians, if
01:04:30the Americans come
01:04:31back and resume
01:04:32their efforts to
01:04:33negotiate and
01:04:34continue their
01:04:35support for
01:04:36Ukraine, then
01:04:37Zelensky will have
01:04:38every reason to
01:04:39believe in future
01:04:40that any American
01:04:43threats to pull
01:04:44out are simply a
01:04:45bluff and he will
01:04:46dig in his heels
01:04:47even further.
01:04:48So the Americans
01:04:50now have to make
01:04:51that decision.
01:04:51Do they finally
01:04:53do that which
01:04:56they said they
01:04:57would do over the
01:05:00course of the
01:05:01last couple of
01:05:03days?
01:05:04If there isn't a
01:05:06peace agreement
01:05:07agreed this month,
01:05:10which it's now
01:05:11impossible to see
01:05:12how it can be,
01:05:14finally pull the
01:05:16plug from the
01:05:17whole business,
01:05:18pull out entirely,
01:05:20cease to provide
01:05:21military aid,
01:05:22cease to engage
01:05:23in mediation
01:05:24efforts?
01:05:26Or do they go
01:05:27back on all of
01:05:28that, restart the
01:05:31whole fruitless
01:05:32process of
01:05:33negotiations all
01:05:35over again, in
01:05:37which case, exactly
01:05:39as they themselves
01:05:40have said, they
01:05:41will get bogged
01:05:42down and this
01:05:43whole process will
01:05:44go on forever and
01:05:46lead nowhere.
01:05:47The decision
01:05:48ultimately rests
01:05:49with Donald Trump.
01:05:51It seems to me
01:05:52that he now has
01:05:55the option to
01:05:58pull out.
01:05:59J.D.
01:06:00Vance, who's just
01:06:00been in India, by
01:06:02the way, trying to
01:06:03negotiate a trade
01:06:03agreement there, he
01:06:05says it's going
01:06:06well, but then of
01:06:07course the Americans
01:06:08always say that all
01:06:09the negotiations are
01:06:10going well until it
01:06:12turns out that they
01:06:13are not.
01:06:13But I'm not going
01:06:14to discuss that
01:06:15here.
01:06:16Anyway, J.D.
01:06:17Vance has made
01:06:17statements over the
01:06:18course of the last
01:06:2024 hours, which
01:06:22make it pretty clear
01:06:23to me that he
01:06:24thinks that this is
01:06:25the moment when the
01:06:26United States should
01:06:27indeed pull out of
01:06:29the conflict in
01:06:31Ukraine.
01:06:33Of course, he has
01:06:35been perhaps the
01:06:37strongest skeptic in
01:06:39Washington of
01:06:41America's commitment
01:06:42to Ukraine all
01:06:43along.
01:06:44Just saying.
01:06:46But I have to say
01:06:48that I suspect that
01:06:50there will continue
01:06:51to be voices in
01:06:53Washington that will
01:06:55continue to tell the
01:06:56president that he
01:06:58can't pull out, that
01:06:59he's got to continue
01:07:00to commit to
01:07:01Ukraine, that he
01:07:02can't give up his
01:07:03negotiating efforts
01:07:05now, that doing so
01:07:07would hand a
01:07:09victory to the
01:07:11to the Russians, and
01:07:15that would be
01:07:16unacceptable.
01:07:18That would be
01:07:19unacceptable, and it
01:07:21would be too much
01:07:22of a blow for the
01:07:24United States to
01:07:26accept.
01:07:26there is an
01:07:30excellent article
01:07:31about all of
01:07:32this by Alistair
01:07:34Crook, the
01:07:35former British
01:07:36DFLBAT, on the
01:07:37Conflict
01:07:38Forums
01:07:40sub-stack, and
01:07:43in it, in
01:07:47it, he says
01:07:50this, he
01:07:52says this,
01:07:53Is Trump
01:07:55really going to
01:07:56wash his hands
01:07:57of Ukraine?
01:07:59Doubtful, given
01:08:00that the US
01:08:00neoconservative
01:08:02institutional
01:08:02established
01:08:04leadership will
01:08:05tell Trump that
01:08:06to do so would
01:08:07weaken America's
01:08:08peace through
01:08:09strength narrative.
01:08:11Trump may adopt
01:08:13support on a
01:08:14low-flame posture
01:08:15while declaring
01:08:16the war was
01:08:18never his, as
01:08:19he seeks a win
01:08:20on the business
01:08:21front with Russia.
01:08:23And, anyway, I
01:08:26think that's
01:08:26probably what is
01:08:28going to happen.
01:08:29He's going to
01:08:30probably now
01:08:31decide to move
01:08:33forward with some
01:08:34kind of
01:08:35negotiation with
01:08:36the Russians for
01:08:38full normalisation
01:08:39of relations.
01:08:40He's already
01:08:41boxed himself in
01:08:42by basically
01:08:43saying that
01:08:44sanctions against
01:08:45Russia cannot be
01:08:47lifted until there
01:08:48is peace in
01:08:49Ukraine.
01:08:50A major mistake,
01:08:51in my opinion,
01:08:52one which has
01:08:53been repeated
01:08:54by the State
01:08:55Department and
01:08:56which I don't
01:08:56think he can
01:08:58easily walk back.
01:08:59So, there it
01:09:02is.
01:09:03That I think is
01:09:05most likely what
01:09:06he's going to
01:09:07do.
01:09:07but, one way or
01:09:12the other, I
01:09:14think he
01:09:15should, if he
01:09:17can't completely
01:09:18cut the
01:09:22connection to
01:09:22Ukraine, he
01:09:24should, at
01:09:25least from this
01:09:26moment on,
01:09:27distance himself
01:09:28from it.
01:09:30He should also
01:09:31stop listening to
01:09:32General Kellogg.
01:09:33and I say
01:09:34that, I
01:09:35don't mean to
01:09:36suggest that
01:09:36General Kellogg
01:09:37is not in
01:09:38his own way
01:09:39a well-intentioned
01:09:40man, well-intentioned
01:09:42on what he
01:09:44believes to be
01:09:45America's behalf
01:09:48and even Donald
01:09:49Trump's behalf,
01:09:51but I don't
01:09:54think he has
01:09:56served either
01:09:58America's or
01:10:00Trump's interests
01:10:02well with the
01:10:04plan that he
01:10:06has presented.
01:10:09Again, Alistair
01:10:12Crook goes
01:10:13through all of
01:10:13that in his
01:10:15article.
01:10:17He says that
01:10:18Kellogg appears
01:10:21to have made
01:10:21implicit assumptions
01:10:23that the Russians
01:10:24were highly
01:10:25vulnerable to
01:10:26sanctions and
01:10:28were exhausted
01:10:29on the
01:10:30battlefields,
01:10:31that none
01:10:31of that
01:10:32has been
01:10:35true,
01:10:36that he
01:10:37has led
01:10:37Trump
01:10:39down a
01:10:40blind alley
01:10:41by presenting
01:10:42a plan
01:10:42which the
01:10:44Russians were
01:10:45bound to
01:10:46reject,
01:10:48but which,
01:10:49of course,
01:10:49Zelensky,
01:10:51whose probable
01:10:52acceptance of
01:10:53his plan,
01:10:54Kellogg may
01:10:55have taken
01:10:56for granted,
01:10:57but which
01:10:59Zelensky has
01:11:00also now
01:11:02rejected.
01:11:03So,
01:11:04I think that
01:11:05Trump needs
01:11:06to stop
01:11:07listening to
01:11:07Kellogg.
01:11:10Perhaps,
01:11:11given that
01:11:12Kellogg is an
01:11:13elderly man,
01:11:14he's 80,
01:11:15the time has
01:11:16come to tell
01:11:16him that his
01:11:17services,
01:11:18though they've
01:11:18been hugely
01:11:19valued,
01:11:20have now
01:11:21basically come
01:11:22to an end.
01:11:22and for
01:11:23Trump,
01:11:24as I said,
01:11:25to remove
01:11:27himself and
01:11:28the United
01:11:29States,
01:11:30certainly from
01:11:30the negotiations,
01:11:32and perhaps to
01:11:33downscale US
01:11:34military aid to
01:11:35Ukraine,
01:11:36and to leave it
01:11:37to the Ukrainians
01:11:38and to the
01:11:39Europeans from
01:11:40this point on.
01:11:41I don't think
01:11:42that he can
01:11:43pursue further
01:11:45economic deals
01:11:46with the Russians
01:11:47for the time
01:11:48being.
01:11:49So,
01:11:49there it is.
01:11:50I cannot
01:11:53see any
01:11:55way back
01:11:55from the
01:11:56Kellogg plan
01:11:57from this
01:11:58point onward.
01:12:00It could
01:12:01be that
01:12:02over the
01:12:03summer,
01:12:04as Ukraine's
01:12:05military position
01:12:06collapses,
01:12:08the Europeans
01:12:10start to
01:12:11put pressure
01:12:12on the
01:12:13Americans again,
01:12:15either to
01:12:15resume
01:12:16negotiations
01:12:17or to
01:12:18step up
01:12:19military aid
01:12:20to Ukraine
01:12:21or something
01:12:22of that
01:12:23kind.
01:12:24But by that
01:12:25time,
01:12:26with the
01:12:26Russians
01:12:27almost certainly
01:12:28having advanced
01:12:29further,
01:12:31it will be
01:12:32too late
01:12:32for Kellogg's
01:12:33plan,
01:12:34which was
01:12:35never realistic
01:12:36anyway.
01:12:37In my
01:12:38opinion,
01:12:38the events
01:12:39of the last
01:12:3924 hours
01:12:40have finally
01:12:41and conclusively
01:12:43vindicated
01:12:43the stance
01:12:44that Alex
01:12:45Christoforo
01:12:46and I
01:12:47took back
01:12:49in the
01:12:49summer
01:12:50when we
01:12:50said that
01:12:51the best
01:12:51thing for
01:12:52Donald Trump
01:12:53to do
01:12:53after he
01:12:54was elected
01:12:55president
01:12:55was to
01:12:56simply say
01:12:57that this
01:12:57was not
01:12:57his war,
01:12:59that the
01:12:59United States
01:13:00had done
01:13:01all that it
01:13:02could,
01:13:02and to
01:13:03leave it
01:13:04to the
01:13:04Ukrainians
01:13:05and to
01:13:05the Europeans
01:13:06by themselves
01:13:07to sort
01:13:08it out.
01:13:10Instead,
01:13:11listening to
01:13:12Kellogg and
01:13:12perhaps Rubio
01:13:13and Wolf,
01:13:15he's
01:13:15tried first
01:13:18to get a
01:13:18ceasefire,
01:13:19which hasn't
01:13:20happened,
01:13:21and then to
01:13:22get Kellogg's
01:13:23plan accepted
01:13:24by the
01:13:25Ukrainians
01:13:25and the
01:13:26Russians.
01:13:27On all
01:13:28counts,
01:13:29this has
01:13:29failed,
01:13:31it's simply
01:13:31taken up
01:13:32time and
01:13:34resources
01:13:34and led
01:13:35to embarrassment
01:13:36and the
01:13:37moment has
01:13:38definitely come
01:13:39to call a
01:13:40stop.
01:13:40I doubt
01:13:41that Trump
01:13:42will fully
01:13:42do it for
01:13:43the reasons
01:13:44that Alistair
01:13:45Crook has
01:13:46said,
01:13:47but we'll
01:13:47see.
01:13:48Anyway,
01:13:49having come
01:13:50to this
01:13:50point,
01:13:51perhaps it's
01:13:52worth saying
01:13:53a few things
01:13:54about the
01:13:54military
01:13:55situation.
01:13:56Before I
01:13:57finally wrap
01:13:58up this
01:13:58video,
01:13:59briefly,
01:14:00the Russians
01:14:00continue to
01:14:01advance.
01:14:02They have
01:14:03apparently
01:14:05definitely
01:14:06pushed the
01:14:07Ukrainians
01:14:07now out
01:14:08of the
01:14:08territory
01:14:09of the
01:14:09monastery.
01:14:10They're
01:14:11fighting for
01:14:11the village
01:14:12of
01:14:12Gornal
01:14:12itself.
01:14:16They have
01:14:17apparently
01:14:18continued to
01:14:19advance on
01:14:22all sides
01:14:23around
01:14:24Pokrovsk.
01:14:25There's been
01:14:26statements about
01:14:29this from,
01:14:30I believe it
01:14:31was Kimokovsky,
01:14:32one of the
01:14:34Russian
01:14:34officials,
01:14:35about how
01:14:36all the
01:14:37Ukrainian
01:14:37counter-attacks
01:14:38around
01:14:39Pokrovsk have
01:14:40been a
01:14:40failure and
01:14:41how the
01:14:41Russians are
01:14:42advancing north
01:14:43of Kortlino
01:14:44and are
01:14:46also advancing
01:14:46to the
01:14:49northeast of
01:14:50Pokrovsk as
01:14:51well.
01:14:52The situation
01:14:53around
01:14:53Pokrovsk is
01:14:54looking very,
01:14:55very difficult
01:14:56for the
01:14:57Ukrainians and
01:14:58I would not
01:14:59be surprised
01:15:00if we see a
01:15:02sudden collapse
01:15:03in Pokrovsk at
01:15:04some point over
01:15:05the next couple
01:15:06of weeks,
01:15:07not that
01:15:08difficult from
01:15:09the collapse
01:15:09that suddenly
01:15:11happened in
01:15:12Selidovo a few
01:15:13months ago.
01:15:14Meanwhile,
01:15:16there are
01:15:18further reports
01:15:21of what
01:15:22does increasingly
01:15:23look like
01:15:24a major
01:15:26operational
01:15:26crisis
01:15:27for the
01:15:29Ukrainians
01:15:30in the
01:15:31area of
01:15:32Konstantinovka.
01:15:35Suche Balka,
01:15:37the main
01:15:37Ukrainian
01:15:38military
01:15:39village,
01:15:41which is the
01:15:41main Ukrainian
01:15:42military position,
01:15:43immediately to
01:15:44the south of
01:15:45Konstantinovka,
01:15:45has now been
01:15:46captured,
01:15:47and we have
01:15:48conclusive evidence
01:15:49of this.
01:15:50The Russians
01:15:51are now
01:15:53clearing the
01:15:54territory to
01:15:55the east
01:15:55and west
01:15:56of Toretsk,
01:15:57which does
01:15:58appear to be
01:15:59securely under
01:16:00their control.
01:16:02It will
01:16:03probably take
01:16:04some weeks,
01:16:05but at
01:16:06some point,
01:16:07a continuous
01:16:08front line
01:16:10will be
01:16:11established
01:16:11immediately
01:16:12south,
01:16:13of Konstantinovka.
01:16:15And the
01:16:16Ukrainian
01:16:17positions,
01:16:18the Ukrainians
01:16:19continue to
01:16:20cling on
01:16:21to a few
01:16:22high points
01:16:24around
01:16:25Chasov-Yar,
01:16:27but I
01:16:29suspect that
01:16:30continuing to
01:16:31cling on to
01:16:31those as
01:16:32everything else
01:16:33around them
01:16:34collapses is
01:16:35going to prove
01:16:36extremely difficult.
01:16:38all the
01:16:40conditions point
01:16:41to a
01:16:43future collapse
01:16:45of Ukrainian
01:16:46positions around
01:16:47Konstantinovka
01:16:48and a
01:16:51likely assault
01:16:52on Konstantinovka
01:16:55sometime in the
01:16:56early summer,
01:16:58perhaps in
01:16:59parallel with
01:17:00an attack on
01:17:01Pokrovsk.
01:17:01Meanwhile,
01:17:03we're getting
01:17:03more information
01:17:04about Russian
01:17:05drone strikes
01:17:06and more
01:17:07information about
01:17:08the Geranium
01:17:093 drone
01:17:10that I
01:17:11mentioned or
01:17:12spoke about
01:17:13yesterday.
01:17:14It seems
01:17:16as if the
01:17:17Geranium 3
01:17:19drone has
01:17:20a small jet
01:17:21engine in
01:17:23place of
01:17:25the former
01:17:26turboprop
01:17:27engine that
01:17:28the Geranium
01:17:292 drone
01:17:29uses.
01:17:31So the
01:17:31Geranium 3
01:17:32can apparently
01:17:33fly at much
01:17:35higher speeds
01:17:36around 500
01:17:37kilometers an
01:17:38hour and
01:17:39at much
01:17:39higher altitudes
01:17:40than the
01:17:41Geranium 2
01:17:42drone.
01:17:43It is
01:17:43vulnerable,
01:17:44so I read,
01:17:47to attacks
01:17:48by infrared
01:17:49guided
01:17:50manpads
01:17:52anti-aircraft
01:17:54missiles,
01:17:55but as the
01:17:55Russians are
01:17:56pointing out,
01:17:57it actually
01:17:58costs significantly
01:17:59less than
01:18:01manpads,
01:18:01missiles which
01:18:02are anyway in
01:18:03short supply
01:18:04in the West
01:18:05and so for
01:18:07the Ukrainians
01:18:07to try to
01:18:08shoot them
01:18:08down with
01:18:09those would
01:18:10be a complete
01:18:10waste of
01:18:11time.
01:18:12It is out
01:18:13of reach
01:18:14of Ukrainian
01:18:16guns,
01:18:18heavy machine
01:18:20guns and
01:18:20anti-aircraft
01:18:22guns,
01:18:23which the
01:18:24Ukrainians have
01:18:25previously used
01:18:26to shoot
01:18:27down
01:18:28Geranium 2
01:18:29drones.
01:18:30And in the
01:18:31meantime,
01:18:33the Russians
01:18:34have developed
01:18:35a whole new,
01:18:36incredibly
01:18:37complicated
01:18:38menagerie of
01:18:40new drones
01:18:41and weapons
01:18:44of that kind
01:18:45that they are
01:18:45using all across
01:18:46the battle
01:18:47fronts.
01:18:47I'm gradually
01:18:49losing count
01:18:50of what these
01:18:52are.
01:18:52The Lancet,
01:18:54for example,
01:18:54which became so
01:18:55important in
01:18:572023 in
01:18:58repelling Ukraine's
01:19:002023 summer
01:19:01offensive,
01:19:03has now evolved
01:19:04into a very
01:19:04complex family
01:19:06of different
01:19:07drones,
01:19:08but there are
01:19:09all sorts of
01:19:10other drones
01:19:10being used by
01:19:11the Russians,
01:19:12and the Russians
01:19:13are becoming
01:19:14more sophisticated
01:19:15in their use
01:19:17of drones
01:19:17every day.
01:19:20And, well,
01:19:20there's also
01:19:21been a major
01:19:22fire at an
01:19:23ammunition dump
01:19:24in Russia,
01:19:25in Vladimir
01:19:26region.
01:19:27There's no
01:19:28suggestion that
01:19:29this was caused
01:19:29by Ukrainian
01:19:30military action.
01:19:32It appears to
01:19:33have been caused
01:19:34by negligence
01:19:35on the part
01:19:36of the
01:19:36Russian
01:19:38custodians
01:19:40of this
01:19:41ammunition dump.
01:19:42There is so
01:19:43much ammunition
01:19:44and explosives
01:19:45now all over
01:19:47Russian territory
01:19:49that it's
01:19:51unsurprising
01:19:52that these
01:19:53events happen.
01:19:55But perhaps,
01:19:55again, what
01:19:56this incident
01:19:57does is
01:19:58highlight
01:19:59just how
01:20:01vast
01:20:01Russian
01:20:03ammunition
01:20:03production
01:20:04has now
01:20:05become,
01:20:07as
01:20:08illustrated
01:20:09by General
01:20:10Sirsky's
01:20:11recent
01:20:12admission
01:20:13that in
01:20:14the summer
01:20:14and autumn
01:20:15the Russian
01:20:16firing rate,
01:20:17artillery firing
01:20:18rate,
01:20:19was 40,000
01:20:20rounds a
01:20:21day,
01:20:22and that
01:20:22after a
01:20:23quieter period
01:20:24in the
01:20:25winter,
01:20:26it is now
01:20:27rising again
01:20:28and is
01:20:29close now
01:20:30to 30,000
01:20:31rounds a
01:20:32day.
01:20:33Even as
01:20:34the Ukrainian
01:20:36firing rate,
01:20:38which
01:20:38perhaps
01:20:39peaked
01:20:40in the
01:20:40winter
01:20:41at around
01:20:4210,000
01:20:43rounds a
01:20:44day,
01:20:45might now
01:20:45be soon
01:20:48declining.
01:20:49So anyway,
01:20:51the Russians
01:20:52continue to
01:20:53make progress,
01:20:55continue to
01:20:56position themselves
01:20:57around the
01:20:58important towns
01:20:59on the eve
01:21:00of the big
01:21:01hammer blow
01:21:02that everybody
01:21:03now expects
01:21:04to come
01:21:04in the
01:21:06early summer
01:21:07or late
01:21:08spring.
01:21:09But I
01:21:12won't say
01:21:13conclusively
01:21:14that
01:21:15negotiations
01:21:16to end
01:21:19the war
01:21:20are now
01:21:21dead,
01:21:22but after
01:21:23Zelensky's
01:21:24recent,
01:21:25after Zelensky's
01:21:26outburst
01:21:26and the
01:21:27collapse of
01:21:28the talks
01:21:29in London,
01:21:30it seems
01:21:32to me
01:21:33that a
01:21:34military
01:21:34resolution
01:21:36of this
01:21:36conflict
01:21:37is now
01:21:39all but
01:21:39certain,
01:21:41and of
01:21:41course,
01:21:42many will
01:21:43say that
01:21:44in a war
01:21:45of this
01:21:45kind,
01:21:46that is
01:21:47the only
01:21:47logical
01:21:48outcome
01:21:49to this
01:21:50war.
01:21:51Well,
01:21:52this is
01:21:52where I
01:21:53finish today's
01:21:54programme.
01:21:54There'll be
01:21:54more from
01:21:55me soon.
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01:22:18That's
01:22:18me for
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01:22:20More from
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01:22:21Have a
01:22:22very good
01:22:22day.
01:22:28should
01:22:31never
01:22:33like
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01:22:35see
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01:22:36next
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01:22:45Bye bye!
01:22:46Bye!
01:22:48Bye!
01:22:49Bye!
01:22:50Bye blah!
01:22:50Bye!
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01:22:55Bye!