अमेरिकी एक्सपर्ट प्रोफेसर मुक्तदर खान ने बताया कैसी जंग भारत के लिए बेहतर या खतरनाक, युद्ध हुआ तो अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप क्या करेंगे?
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00:00।
00:29Look, first of all, there's a lot of advice for my family.
00:35They're sad at what happened.
00:38But for India, there's a very serious dilemma.
00:42How do we get the answer?
00:44The world's economy is such a way to shrink.
00:49The global economy can shrink from 6-7% from our president.
00:54With the tariff policies, it will also have to be affected by India.
00:59At least, it will be less than 1-8% GDP growth rate.
01:04So, Prime Minister Modi has a challenge for the Prime Minister of Modi.
01:09If they're doing a lot of serious steps,
01:16then he'll have to prove to the international community that Pakistan's hands behind it.
01:22That's why it's so big.
01:24So, if they have small exercises, surgical strikes,
01:27then the risk is that Pakistan will respond.
01:29You've seen a few years ago that Iran has attacked Pakistan.
01:33And Pakistan has attacked Iran.
01:35Both countries did what they want to do.
01:38And then, the problem is that,
01:41the expectations have increased.
01:56So, the expectations have increased.
02:07I think that the government's operation will not be satisfied.
02:13And India has increased so much rhetoric.
02:17They want something very serious.
02:19And now, this treaty has canceled the industry.
02:24Actually, no one can't see it.
02:27It's been about 18 months.
02:30The treaty is nearly over.
02:32So, the negotiations are going on.
02:34So, Prime Minister Modi has stopped the negotiations.
02:38The negotiations have stopped the negotiations.
02:39It's not the treaty.
02:40It's not the treaty.
02:41But the answer of Pakistan is very difficult.
02:44The shimla accord has broken.
02:46Look, you remember that Obama interferes with this resolution.
02:53Donald Trump said that if India would say it would be a big issue.
02:57So, India's standard answer was that this is our bilateral issue.
03:00Neither UN nor the US.
03:02There will be no doubt in Kashmir.
03:05But that was based on the shimla accord of 1972.
03:08If the shimla accord is finished,
03:11then Pakistan has a chance to get involved with third parties.
03:14OIC, Saudi Arabia, America or UN.
03:19So, I think losing shimla accord is not in India's interest.
03:23But I believe that it's a challenge that they have to calibrate it right.
03:28Look, if they fight a small war,
03:30then Pakistan's army and Pakistan's government will be lost.
03:34Because now, the public is against them.
03:36That's why Imeran Khan has no respect and the government has no legitimacy.
03:41But if there is a small war,
03:44then the public will be behind Pakistan's government and this army.
03:48It will back them.
03:49Right?
03:50Yes.
03:51If there is a big war,
03:52then their economy will be lost.
03:53And their assets will be lost.
03:54They will be lost.
03:55But that will also cost India.
03:59So, Narendra Modi's challenge is that he has to calibrate it so carefully,
04:03that he has to calibrate it so carefully,
04:04that he doesn't do so much,
04:05that there will be international episodes.
04:07But he doesn't do so much,
04:08that Pakistan feels it can retaliate.
04:10He has no stakes in Pakistan.
04:25He has no stakes in Pakistan.
04:27I mean, Pakistan is completely isolated.
04:28Not the OIC countries, not Saudi Arabia, not the UAE,
04:29Iran is not interested in helping Pakistan.
04:31Now, the question is, will the US back India?
04:33I think it will be verbally back India.
04:34But there is nothing serious support coming to India.
04:38Because Donald Trump has so many problems.
04:39It is quite possible that our economy will go into recession.
04:40And China is not playing the way we expected that it will fall down.
04:43Inflation with the chances.
04:44The economy is with the chance that the economy is very internally focused.
05:01And this is important for America.
05:06He is very internally focused.
05:10focused. And he wants to change the culture of America and politics. So he's not interested
05:15in peripheral issues. But he wants India. India is an important country. Fifth biggest
05:21economy. So you can say that if India does not do something really major, which is why
05:29America has hit the global order, then America has to step in. Donald Trump can say that
05:37license has to a great extent to India to do whatever it feels is necessary in this
05:43issue. But it's also the limitations of India. Look, there are two risks for Narendra Modi.
05:49There is a policy risk that the policy is not going to be backfired. Look, the last time
05:53the pilot was shooting, they had a lot of things in India that the F-16 hit the F-16, but
06:00the rest of the world doesn't believe that the F-16 was shot. But if you had a pilot
06:05hit the F-16, then you don't want something. That policy will be failure if someone will
06:09die or will die. But there is also a political risk that if the public is not happy that you
06:18have jacked them so much rhetorically, they are expecting you to do something big, and
06:22you have given them 6-6-6-6-10, then that will not happen. So he has to face both the political
06:28risks. And actually, I was very surprised to see that the first time I have had a strong
06:34question. This is an intelligence failure. In the past few months, India's intelligence
06:41has been missed. It's a complete disaster. You don't know what intelligence is happening.
06:47You don't know what intelligence is happening in Bangladesh. And if India's allegations that
06:54this regime change America has done, then you didn't know what it was happening in Canada,
07:00and then America's agent. So that shows that there has been a consistent intelligence failure
07:07India in India. Now they didn't know. So there is no accountability. So there is some pressure
07:14coming now from Congress that intelligence failure is about this. Then security failure
07:18is also about this. I am showing a show. So in my show, a man came and said, I am just an ordinary
07:24person. I was also on vacation. But he said that I was judging by myself and I didn't take my family there.
07:34I just want to ask why I'm taking my family there.
07:39It was a very interesting thing
08:08I think we both left Andhra Pradesh, which was undivided
08:16So we both are from one state
08:19The Secretary of Treasury said that India is probably going to be the first country to have a bilateral trade agreement
08:26It's not a free trade, it's a bilateral trade
08:29It will be different trades
08:32I think India had already
08:34First of all, the negotiations were falling in the trade
08:40The most important thing about Donald Trump is that the trade barriers are not just tariffs
08:46There are tariffs and the imbalance
08:52Now, I don't know how many weeks ago India has bought a rough-hale for 7.4 billion dollars.
09:00I was surprised that in America, there was no notice that if India has got 7.4 for a rough-hale,
09:05then where will F-35?
09:08Which means that India is not going to buy unnecessary things, which is very good.
09:12But the trade of 43 to 48 billion dollar trade deficit will be filled.
09:18So, Trump will demand that they will buy some things.
09:22In India, the most challenging thing in trade is that if India will open its agricultural market or not.
09:30That is the trend.
09:31If India will open, then India will be very dangerous.
09:33And politically, it is very dangerous.
09:36Already farmers are not aroused.
09:39I am very happy.
09:42I am very happy.
09:43I am very happy.
09:44I am very happy.
09:45I am very happy.
09:46I am very happy.
09:47I am very happy.
09:48I am very happy.
09:49I am very happy.
09:50I am very happy.
09:51But it is important that this world's biggest voice is.
09:53You are seeing that a conservative trend is happening, Putin is happening,
09:58It is happening, and Donald Trump is happening.
10:01Putin, Narendra Modi, Donald Trump, Hungary, Argentina.
10:07What is happening with that?
10:09There are two things.
10:10One is democratic backsliding, civil society institutions,
10:14if we take the media or even independent judiciary.
10:17These are all dangerous.
10:19Progressive voices, it is important that they come together
10:24and decide that we are dangerous but there are some things
10:28for which we need to fight.
10:30I expect that when people go to the other place,
10:34they will learn that,
10:35for example, this is a semi-progressive party,
10:39you can call it Indian Congress.
10:41This state is run by a semi-progressive party
10:44where the majority politics do not work.
10:47So I think that progressives will go back to their countries
10:50and there is hope that we can fight.
10:54Thank you very much for talking about E.T.E.B.Bharat.
11:01It is very important to me, whether it be trade negotiations or deals, or whether it be a war or a war.
11:11Vikas Koshik, ETV Bharat, Hyderabad