امریکی ماہر پروفیسر ڈاکٹر مقتدر خان بتاتے ہیں پاکستان کے ساتھ کشیدگی میں بھارت کے پاس کیا آپشنز ہیں؟
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02:50Obama had interfered with saying that I will do this resolution.
02:55Donald Trump also said that if India says that I will do this resolution.
02:59So India's standard answer was that this is our bilateral issue.
03:02Neither UN nor US.
03:04There will not be no doubt in Kashmir.
03:07But that was based on the SIMLA Accord of 1972.
03:10If the SIMLA Accord is finished,
03:13then Pakistan has a chance to get involved with third parties.
03:16OIC, Saudi Arabia, or even the UN.
03:21So I think that the SIMLA Accord is not in India's interest.
03:25But I believe it's a challenge that they have to calibrate it right.
03:30If we fight a small war,
03:33then we will have the power of Pakistan and the government.
03:36Because now the public is against them.
03:39The army has no respect and the government has no legitimacy.
03:43But if there is a small war,
03:46then the public will be behind this government and this army.
03:50It will back them.
03:51Right?
03:52Yes, if there is a big war,
03:53then their economy will lose their assets.
03:55Their assets will lose a lot.
03:56They will lose 10-15 years.
03:58But that will also cost India.
04:00So Narendra Modi has to calibrate it so carefully,
04:04so carefully,
04:05that they will not do so much as international episodes.
04:08But they will not do so small as Pakistan feels it can retaliate.
04:11You can retaliate.
04:12You have the State Department of State Department of the U.S.
04:16They have to do so much work.
04:17They will have to do so much work.
04:19What do you think?
04:20The administration of the U.S.
04:22Donald Trump's administration.
04:23Is the whole issue,
04:25who are saying that the government is against some war,
04:27they will have to give them to the government?
04:31So,
04:32until the question of Donald Trump,
04:34he has no stakes in Pakistan.
04:36I mean,
04:37Pakistan is now completely isolated internationally.
04:39Not OIC countries,
04:40not Saudi Arabia,
04:41not UAE,
04:42Iran.
04:43No one is interested in helping Pakistan.
04:45Now,
04:46the question is,
04:47will the U.S.
04:48back India?
04:49I think they will verbally back it.
04:52But,
04:54there is nothing serious support coming to India.
04:56Because,
04:57Donald Trump has so many problems.
04:59It is quite possible that our economy will go into recession.
05:02And,
05:03China is not playing the way we expected.
05:05It will fall down.
05:06Inflation is going to be the chances of the economy.
05:08So,
05:09he is very internally focused.
05:12And,
05:13he wants to change the culture of America and politics.
05:16So,
05:17he is not interested in these peripheral issues.
05:19But,
05:20he wants India.
05:21India is an important country.
05:22Fifth biggest economy.
05:23India is a fifth biggest economy.
05:24India has a relationship with India.
05:25So,
05:26you can say,
05:27if India does not do something really major,
05:30which is because of America,
05:32it is causing the global order.
05:34So,
05:35you can say,
05:36if you have a license to a great extent to India,
05:38to do whatever it feels is necessary in this issue.
05:41But,
05:42India has a limitation.
05:43Look,
05:44there are two risks for India.
05:45There are two risks for Narendra Modi.
05:46One is a policy risk.
05:47The policy is not going to be backfired.
05:48Look,
05:49last time,
05:50the pilot was shot.
05:51They were shot.
05:52They were shot.
05:53In India,
05:54there were a lot of things in India.
05:55There were a lot of things in India.
05:56But,
05:57the rest of the world doesn't believe that an F-16 was shot.
06:01But,
06:02the rest of the world doesn't believe that an F-16 was shot.
06:05But,
06:06you don't want something.
06:07That's a policy failure.
06:08If someone will die,
06:09or the plane will fall.
06:10But,
06:11there is a political risk.
06:12If the public is not happy,
06:13that you have to jack up them,
06:14rhetorically,
06:15they are expecting you to do something big.
06:16And,
06:17if the public is not happy,
06:18that you have to jack up them,
06:19rhetorically,
06:20they are expecting you to do something big.
06:21And,
06:22if you have to do six,
06:23six,
06:24six,
06:25six,
06:26ten,
06:27then,
06:28that's not going to happen.
06:29So,
06:30he has to face both the political risks.
06:31And,
06:32actually,
06:33I was very surprised to see,
06:34that,
06:35the first time,
06:36I saw Congress,
06:37a hard question,
06:38when they asked,
06:39this is an intelligence failure.
06:40In the past few months,
06:42India's intelligence,
06:44I mean,
06:45raw,
06:46they have missed so many things.
06:47It's a complete disaster,
06:48that,
06:49you know,
06:50what's happening in Bangladesh.
06:51And,
06:52if India's allegations,
06:53that,
06:54that,
06:55the regime change,
06:56that,
06:57that,
06:58that,
06:59that,
07:00that,
07:01that,
07:02that,
07:03that,
07:04that,
07:05that,
07:06that,
07:07that,
07:08that,
07:09that,
07:10that,
07:11that,
07:12I have this in my mind.
07:13The British,
07:14that there is no accountability.
07:15So,
07:16there is some pressure
07:18coming from Congress,
07:19that that intelligence failure is,
07:20that the devil is about too hard.
07:21There's a failure is also a failure.
07:22As I told you in my talk,
07:24Once I told him,
07:25I'm just an ordinary person.
07:27I also went on vacation but he said that I would judge myself that it was not safe and I didn't take my family there.
07:37I have two questions.
07:39First of all, the U.S. has said that the first success has gotten in trade negotiations.
07:50Do you think the effect of the U.S. is going to be in trade negotiations?
07:57Do you think the effect of the U.S.?
08:02Do you think the effect of the U.S.?
08:06J.D. Vance was very interesting.
08:10I think that J.D. Vance has said that India is going to be the first country to have a bilateral trade agreement.
08:28Look, it's not a free trade. It's a bilateral trade.
08:30It's not a free trade. It's a bilateral trade.
08:31You know, different items will be different.
08:33I think that India has already...
08:36Look, it's the first concessions.
08:38It's the first negotiations.
08:40India has already got tariffs.
08:42Then India has already...
08:44The biggest doubt about Donald Trump is that there are trade barriers.
08:48It's not just tariffs.
08:49There are trade barriers.
08:50There are tariffs.
08:51And there are imbalance.
08:53So we are trying to keep it.
08:55In India a few weeks ago,
08:59I bought a rough-haal for $7.4 billion.
09:02I am very proud that in America,
09:03I have noticed that if India is taking 7.4 for a rough-haal,
09:07then where are F-35 for F-35?
09:09Which means that India will not buy unnecessary things.
09:12Which is very good.
09:14But the trade is that the $43-48 billion trade deficit
09:18will be able to bring it.
09:20So Trump will demand that they will buy some things.
09:23and so politically be it's very dangerous already farmers
09:38and I'm very happy
09:40I'm very happy
09:42I'm very happy
09:44I'm very happy
09:46I'm very happy
09:48I'm very happy
09:50I'm very happy
09:52I'm very happy
09:54but it is important
09:56that this is the most progressive voice
09:58in the world
10:00conservative trend
10:02Putin
10:04Narendra Modi
10:06Hungary
10:08Argentina
10:10what is happening
10:12democratic backsliding
10:14civil society institutions
10:16media
10:18or even independent judiciary
10:20they are all less
10:22progressive voices
10:24it is important
10:26they come together
10:28and decide
10:30there are some things
10:32we need to fight
10:34for example
10:36this is not
10:38this is a semi-progressive party
10:40indian congress
10:42and this state is run by a semi-progressive party
10:44which is not
10:46majoritarian politics
10:48so I think that progressives
10:50will go back to their countries
10:52motivated
10:54that there is hope
10:56that we can fight
10:58in the future
11:00this is the
11:02country
11:04that is the
11:06country
11:08that is the
11:10country
11:12Vikas Koshik, ETV Bharat, Hyderabad