🇷🇺 Lavrov: Kiev Regime Must Go — Crimea, 4 Regions, Zaporozhye NPP Are Russian | Alexander Mercouris

yesterday

In a powerful statement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has declared that the Kiev regime must be removed, emphasizing that the status of Crimea, four additional regions, and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) as Russian territory is non-negotiable. 🛡️
Alexander Mercouris breaks down Lavrov’s remarks, their geopolitical significance, and what this means for the ongoing conflict and diplomatic efforts. 🌍
What are the next steps for Ukraine, Russia, and the international community? Find out the critical insights and analysis in today’s update. ⚡

#Lavrov #UkraineCrisis #Crimea #RussiaUkraine #ZaporozhyeNPP #AlexanderMercouris #Geopolitics #RussiaNews #UkraineWar #WorldPolitics #Diplomacy #InternationalRelations #GlobalNews #KievRegime #NonNegotiable #TerritorialDispute #EastEurope #ConflictUpdate #PoliticalAnalysis #WarNews

Transcript

00:00:00good day today is monday 28th april 2025 and the big story at least in terms of the ukrainian

00:00:09conflict over the last 24 hours is that after the discussions with wick gough um on friday

00:00:19after the publication by the americans and the europeans of the various competing plans or

00:00:27frameworks that the americans and the europeans were proposing in order to bring the conflict

00:00:35in ukraine to an end after the various statements and comments made by donald trump

00:00:42after the various comments and statements made by vladimir zelensky after the various comments

00:00:48and statements made by various european leaders the russians have gone out of their way to make

00:00:55clear that their position has not shifted by one millimeter from the position that putin outlined

00:01:03when he spoke to the foreign ministry on the 14th of june we got a first taster of this yesterday

00:01:13when vladimir putin in response to the report from general gerasimov the chief of the general staff

00:01:21about the ukrainian defeat in kursk region and the complete liberation of kursk region or at least the

00:01:31populated communities of kursk region their complete liberation from ukrainian occupation well following

00:01:42that report putin said these words the complete defeat of the enemy in the bush kursk border area

00:01:51creates conditions for further successful actions by our troops in other important sectors of the front

00:02:00bringing the defeat of the neo-nazi regime closer the words that i ended my program with yesterday

00:02:07putin saying that the objective is to achieve the defeat of the neo-nazi regime the government in

00:02:16other words of ukraine and the fact that the victory the russian victory in kursk is bringing that closer

00:02:26and as i discussed at the end of my program yesterday not only does this speak about a defeat

00:02:34of ukraine or at least of the ukrainian government but the use of language about that ukrainian government

00:02:44the careful description of that government as a neo-nazi regime effectively precludes the option

00:02:54of a negotiated solution it is inconceivable that any russian government would come to

00:03:01a diplomatic settlement with another government which is saw as neo-nazi especially a government located

00:03:11in kiev and controlling ukraine territory which for over 300 years was part first of the russian empire

00:03:22and then of the soviet union and which is still considered by many russians to be essentially historic

00:03:29russian territory and well those words essentially tell us that putin whatever he may be discussing with

00:03:42the americans whatever um his diplomats are saying to wick gough and um rubio and others deep down inwardly

00:03:53believes that there will be a military outcome to this war and one which will end in the defeat of the ukrainian

00:04:02government and its overthrow because russia can never tolerate the existence of such a regime in kiev

00:04:12so that was the first sign that the russian position remains as tough and as tough as ever

00:04:22but we've had more comments appearing since then and perhaps the most interesting have come again from

00:04:30the russian foreign minister sergey lavrov now on thursday lavrov gave a very long interview to cbs to face the

00:04:40nation and over the next couple of days face the nation published excerpts from that interview and as i

00:04:50somewhat suspected the excerpts that were published gave an impression of a more moderate and more flexible

00:05:02lavrov than is actually the case now that the entirety of the interview has been published including by the

00:05:12way on the russian foreign ministry's website it is becoming increasingly clear that lavrov didn't give an inch

00:05:21in fact what he did was that throughout a lengthy interview under which he was put under tight cross

00:05:30examination by an interviewer who i felt was both hostile but nonetheless also intelligent and by american

00:05:41media standards fairly well informed lavrov simply stonewalled when it came to discussion of the

00:05:50negotiations between russia and the united states basically he refused to say anything however he repeated

00:05:58all the points that the russians repeatedly make about the origins of the war and the causes of the war

00:06:05he spoke at length about the impossible conditions that russian speakers and bearers of the russian culture

00:06:15and language find themselves in in today's ukraine he made it quite clear what he thought that the war

00:06:23needed to continue until all of these underlying problems including ukraine's nato membership were fully and completely resolved

00:06:34and in an entire section of the interview which well it didn't exactly surprise the interviewer because

00:06:44she brought it up she brought it up herself but in an entire section of the interview lavrov actually confirmed

00:06:52his words that he for one would prefer that western sanctions on russia not be lifted because as far as

00:07:02he is concerned those sanctions facilitate the organic domestic development of the russian economy

00:07:11and when the interviewer put to him how russia might respond if even more sanctions

00:07:22were imposed upon it as is now being threatened well lavrov essentially shrugged his shoulders he basically

00:07:32dismissed the whole thing and simply went back and said that he'd already made his opinions about sanctions

00:07:38very clear and that for once the interviewer was reporting his words and sentiments accurately

00:07:47at the end of the interview towards the end of the interview the um interviewer said to him said to him

00:07:57that it didn't seem to her as if russia was making any concessions at all and lavrov

00:08:06well disagreed but he went back and said that he couldn't really discuss the substance of the

00:08:15negotiations he couldn't disclose things about the negotiations which were not open to discussion

00:08:22so it was a classic stonewall from lavrov but one which if you read the interview in its entirety

00:08:30makes clear that as i said he's not really giving an inch on any substantive point not to the

00:08:38interviewer and not to the united states or to the ukrainians or to the europeans or to anyone else

00:08:47well lavrov followed up that rather implacable interview with an even tougher one with a brazilian

00:08:56newspaper and the newspaper in question is a global and this interview took place on the 28th of april

00:09:06that is to say today unlike the interview with cbs this interview took place after the meeting between

00:09:17putin and wit goff on friday and in it lavrov was much clearer he was careful in his words in the cbs

00:09:31interview because he didn't want to say things that would be insulting or offensive to donald trump

00:09:38and might deter wit goff from coming to moscow the following day but in the interview with oglobo he

00:09:49basically made it clear that um what russia seeks and it's quite clear that it is exactly what putin

00:09:59outlined on the 14th of june 2024 and the question that he was put to him was as follows do you think

00:10:07that other countries should take part in protect potential peace talks for example brazil which

00:10:14maintains dialogue with both sides he said russia appreciates the striving of our partners to help

00:10:22create conditions for peaceful settlement of the ukrainian crisis but then when asked to discuss

00:10:29the terms he said um he said we make no secret regarding our position on the settlement russia proceeds

00:10:40on the premise that kiev's non-accession to nato as well as reaffirming its neutral and non-aligned

00:10:46status as per the 1990 declaration on ukraine's state sovereignty these factors form one of the two

00:10:56pillars for a final settlement to the ukraine crisis that would meet russia's security interests the

00:11:03second pillar consists of overcoming the legacy of the neo-nazi regime notice again the use of the

00:11:12term neo-nazi regime to go to describe the government in kiev

00:11:17uh the legacy of the neo-nazi regime which took power in kiev after the february 2014 coup including

00:11:29the initiative by its perpetrators to eradicate and cancel in both physical and legislative terms

00:11:37everything russian be it the russian language media culture traditions or the canonical orthodox church

00:11:46the international recognition of crimea sevastopol the donetsk and lugansk people's republics the

00:11:54herson and zaporozhye regions as part of russia is another imperative all the commitments kiev assumes

00:12:03must be legally binding contain enforcement mechanisms and be permanent demilitarizing and denazifying

00:12:12ukraine is also on the agenda along with lifting sanctions withdrawing lawsuits and cancelling arrest

00:12:20warrants as well as returning russian assets subject to the so-called freeze in the west we also insist on

00:12:28obtaining solid security guarantees for the russian federation in order to shield it from any threats

00:12:35emanating from hostile activities by nato the european union and some of their member states along

00:12:43our western border that is an incredibly tough statement by the way on the question of the territory

00:12:50of the four regions in his interview with cbs when asked about proposals that the zaporozhye nuclear power

00:12:59plant might be returned to ukraine but administered by the united states

00:13:07lavrov denied all knowledge of such a proposal from the united states he said that russia had never

00:13:14received such a proposal from the united states remember this that interview was given on thursday

00:13:20before whit goff came to moscow with the american proposal and then he went on to say that the zaporozhye nuclear

00:13:31power plant is part of russian territory and russia does not negotiate its territory and of course as far as russia

00:13:43as far as russian law is concerned russia's territory includes the entire territory of the four regions

00:13:53i i don't think that there is any room for doubt about this the russians have not retreated

00:14:03one millimeter from the positions that putin outlined in his speech to the foreign ministry

00:14:10on the 14th of june 2024 and i think anyone who thinks that they have based for example on that

00:14:21article that appeared some days ago in the financial times needs to remember that putin's spokesman peskov

00:14:31has already in effect labeled that article fake news and there's been no statement no suggestion from the russians

00:14:44at any time whether before that financial times article was written or since then that implies that its content

00:14:53its claim that putin had indicated to whit goff at a previous meeting that russia was prepared to forego

00:15:02its claim to the remaining parts of the four regions that it doesn't control anyway there is no indication

00:15:11that the russians have at any time ever agreed to that outside the anonymously made claims within that article

00:15:22itself i have a simple rule if somebody says something on the record as lavrov has just done i go with

00:15:32what is said on the record anonymous claims made by people who are supposedly informed about the matter

00:15:45i don't place any weight on at all anyway that was lavrov and i mentioned that peskov has called the financial

00:15:56times article fake news well he's also been busy and he's also been speaking over the last couple of hours so

00:16:05firstly peskov confirmed that the russians are prepared to enter into unconditional

00:16:14negotiations with the ukrainians lavrov in both arts both interviews but perhaps more in the interview

00:16:24with cbs um gave a whole tangled story of the negotiations and repeated the point that russia has

00:16:32always been prepared to negotiate with ukraine it is ukraine that refuses to negotiate with russia he also

00:16:40pointed out that it was ukraine that passed the decree in october 2022 precluding itself from negotiating with russia

00:16:52and that the ukrainians have refused to set aside that decree anyway this is what peskov said he said it in an

00:17:01interview with tass um he said it should come up that a signal of ukraine's readiness to resume direct talks

00:17:11with russia should come from kiev they should at least take some action in this regard they still have

00:17:18a legal ban on this we have not seen any action so far so essentially what peskov is saying here is that

00:17:28the ukrainians need in effect to cancel that october 2022 decree unless they do so

00:17:35there is really no point in even talking about negotiations because the ukrainians are refusing to

00:17:42conduct negotiations and peskov actually had more to say he spoke about the um process

00:17:52of the special military operation um he was asked again by tass about the special military operation

00:18:01and he said that russia's special military operation continues but moscow is prepared to start negotiations

00:18:08with kiev without preconditions um and um as to rush trump's recent call for russia to hold strikes on

00:18:18ukrainian facilities peskov went on to say trump has made such remarks the special military operation

00:18:25continues the president has repeatedly confirmed russia's readiness to begin a negotiation process

00:18:31with ukraine without any conditions in order to achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict

00:18:38um and um um peskov was a little bit concessive he went on to say that the united states continues its

00:18:46effort to bring the process to a peaceful um settlement now lavrov hasn't just given interviews

00:18:58to the american and brazilian media he has also spoken to um marco rubio

00:19:08who called him some days ago um um on the 28th well in fact we called him on the 27th of april which is to say

00:19:18yesterday presumably um directly following the meeting between trump and zelensky in rome and the

00:19:31the russian foreign ministry has published this um readout of the conversation on 27th april

00:19:41foreign minister lavrov had a telephone conversation with u.s secretary of state marco rubio

00:19:47the parties continued their productive exchange of views on key elements of the russian american political

00:19:54dialogue which has recently seen a notable intensification so yes we're talking we're talking

00:20:02intensely but at the moment all we are all we the only point we have arrived at is a productive exchange

00:20:13of views on key elements of the russian american political dialogue there's been no agreement so far

00:20:21and no mutual understanding between the parties as to the way to move forward and then the readout

00:20:29continues the primary focus was the ukraine crisis building on the discussions between president putin

00:20:35and uh whitgolf on april 25th um the foreign minister and the secretary of state highlighted the

00:20:44importance of reinforcing the emerging conditions necessary to launch negotiations aimed at establishing a

00:20:55reliable framework for long-term sustainable peace now that is an incredibly complicated sentence and when

00:21:07sentences like that appear you can be quite clear that there's been a straightforward disagreement

00:21:15between the two so we are told that the priority now is to launch negotiations

00:21:25between presumably the ukrainians and the russians in fact definitely between the ukrainians and the russians

00:21:31but the russians but the negotiations will not be about agreeing a peace settlement

00:21:40they will be aimed at establishing a reliable framework for long-term sustainable peace

00:21:46peace so they will be talks about talks they will be talks presumably about whether or not to move forward

00:21:55with the ceasefire or not the russians expect that the ukrainians will come forward propose

00:22:04a meeting rescind their decree as i said peskov has made that i think fairly clear

00:22:11and then the russians and the ukrainians can have a discussion the americans obviously will be involved

00:22:19about how a ceasefire can be set up um and that ceasefire um well the terms of that ceasefire have

00:22:30already been set up set out by putin in previous conversations for example with trump on the 18th of

00:22:37march if they will it will require a cessation of military aid by the united states and other western

00:22:45powers to ukraine it will require um an ending of intelligence sharing with ukraine but it would also

00:22:56require agreement about a framework agreement to achieve peace and clearly the russians are not happy

00:23:08with the proposal that whitkov came with him to moscow on friday because clearly the terms of that framework

00:23:21have to be agreed with the russians and the ukrainians first as a result of direct talks and only then

00:23:32can things move forward to fleshing out the details of that framework so as to re arrive at a full and

00:23:43sustainable and long-term peace so again there clearly was some kind of a disagreement i suspect that again

00:23:53rubio pressed lavrov to agree a ceasefire and lavrov said no there have to be discussions with the ukrainians

00:24:03first we are a very very long way from that position and of course on the following day on the 28th of april he

00:24:13then came out and gave his extremely hard line interview with a global the newspaper in brazil reiterating

00:24:22all the points putin made in his speech to the foreign ministry on the 14th of june 2024 it's perhaps

00:24:32worth pointing out that lavrov actually in some respects went further than putin did he not only

00:24:41talks about the transfer of all the four regions to russia and cast iron commitments that ukraine will once

00:24:52again become a neutral country and will never join nato and he not only talks about um

00:25:02reversal of all legislation and policies in ukraine that discriminate against russian seekers

00:25:12and the re-establishment of the what he calls the canonical orthodox church

00:25:18but he also speaks about international recognition of crimea sevastopol the donetsk and lugansk people's

00:25:27republics herson and zaporizhia regions as part of russia he says that is imperative it's not just enough

00:25:36now for the united states to recognize these regions as part of russia ukraine must do so as well

00:25:45but so much so also must the wider international community so much so must the states that make up the

00:25:54european union britain and france must recognize this and so must germany um the european union as well

00:26:05and he also goes on to say um that all of the sanctions must be lifted and that this isn't really

00:26:17a topic that is um is there for discussion and that russia not just ukraine must be provided with solid

00:26:27security guarantees in order to shield it from any threats emanating from hostile activities by nato

00:26:35as i said this is uncompromising implacable language um one is tempted to say that the russians looked at

00:26:47the proposals that kellogg came or rather than whitgoth came with him kellogg plus or kellogg minus whichever you

00:26:57prefer they did say look this is some step in the right direction but it still falls so far short of

00:27:09what we are looking for that it's important for us to make publicly clear what our underlying position is

00:27:20and the fact that we have not changed it so that nobody nobody can go away and think that we are

00:27:28actually even contemplating accepting well let's call it kellogg minus that's what my friend and colleague

00:27:37alex christopher prefers to call it and well why not i would tend to agree now um one other important

00:27:48russian has spoken and that of course is again putin himself now as i said um over the weekend he spoke

00:27:56about the russian army moving forward to achieve a victory a final victory over ukraine and its

00:28:03government which he referred to as a neo-nazi regime um this time he announced another ceasefire

00:28:13made a a ceasefire to cover the celebrations of victory on the 9th of may of course it's important

00:28:23at this point just to reiterate that the victory which the russians are celebrating on the 9th of may

00:28:33was a victory achieved over germany by the soviet union and of course russia was part of the soviet union

00:28:44in fact it was the core part of the soviet union but so was ukraine it was a joint victory it was a

00:28:52victory as the russians say of all of the soviet people including the russian and ukrainian people

00:29:02fighting together against the common enemy so putin talking up the celebration of the 9th of may

00:29:15saying that a cease a ceasefire should apply on those particular days particularly as this is the

00:29:2180th anniversary of the 80th anniversary of that victory is in part intended to remind the ukrainians

00:29:30that they were once a part of the soviet union and participated in that victory but i get it say

00:29:38further that in my opinion the major reason that putin has announced this ceasefire is because he's

00:29:44trying to sweeten the pill a little for the americans the fact that he's not prepared that russia is not

00:29:51prepared to agree to a ceasefire that it insists now on direct negotiations with the ukrainians that

00:30:01it wants the ukrainians to rescind the october 2022 decree and to sit down and talk things which

00:30:09the americans will not want to hear um statements from the russians that they're not prepared to

00:30:14agree to a ceasefire unless all of these things happen a indefinite or even 30 day ceasefire unless

00:30:23all of these things happen but putin no doubt felt that it's important to make a gesture and this is the

00:30:31gesture that he has made that this is partly the motivation is made very clear for me again by his

00:30:39statement published on the kremlin website which sets out this decision and here it is by decision of

00:30:47the president of the russian federation supreme commander and chief of the armed forces vladimir

00:30:52putin for humanitarian reasons during the days of the 80th anniversary of the victory from midnight on

00:31:00may 7th 8th until midnight on may 10th 11th the russian side declares a ceasefire all military

00:31:08actions are suspended for this period russia believes that the ukrainian side should follow this example

00:31:17in other words this is a unilateral ceasefire they expect the ukrainians to follow it and observe it

00:31:24but they're not agreeing it with the ukrainians and of course the ukrainians so far have made no such

00:31:29commitment and then the statement goes on to say in case of ceasefire violations by the ukrainian side

00:31:38the russian armed forces will provide an adequate and effective response i think it is highly likely

00:31:44by the way that this time the ukrainians will straightforwardly reject the ceasefire they sort of

00:31:53agreed to the easter ceasefire though they didn't honor it this time i think it is more likely they will

00:32:00simply reject it anyway the statement putin's statement then concludes with these words the russian side

00:32:10once again declares its readiness for peace negotiations without preconditions aimed at eliminating the root

00:32:18causes of the ukrainian crisis and constructive interaction with international partners and let's

00:32:26just unpack that sentence the russian side once again declares its readiness for peace negotiations without

00:32:34preconditions the ukrainians are setting preconditions for a ceasefire they are set for negotiations they're

00:32:42saying that in order for the negotiations to happen there must first be a ceasefire the russians are saying

00:32:49no there must be no preconditions at all there is no reason why there should not be negotiations now we don't

00:32:57need a ceasefire to talk with each other this is not actually what happens in most wars we talk and negotiate

00:33:07and as the readout of the conversation between lavrov and rubio essentially says once we've talked maybe we can

00:33:19work our way to agree the terms of a ceasefire we are simply not going to agree to a ceasefire certainly not a

00:33:27permanent ceasefire until we talk and have agreed it and agreed its terms properly

00:33:37with each other so that's one thing and then notice again the reference to the fact that negotiations

00:33:46would be aimed at eliminating the root causes of the ukrainian crisis so the russians though they say

00:33:55that the negotiations would be held without preconditions they nonetheless make very clear what they expect the

00:34:02outcome of those negotiations to be which is firstly that ukraine does not join nato there needs to be

00:34:10cast iron conditions to that effect but also all the other many things that lavrov and the russians

00:34:20have been talking about ever since the speech that putin gave to the foreign ministry on the 14th of june

00:34:282024 and so eventually the negotiations

00:34:34must lead to that outcome including which must include the disestablishment of the existing regime

00:34:46in kiev itself and the note the last words about constructive internet interaction with international partners

00:34:58essentially says again what the purpose of all of this of this announcement ultimately is it's

00:35:06to maintain constructive interaction with the united states by sweetening the pill

00:35:15the pill with the pill being russian refusal of a ceasefire the russians are talking about negotiations

00:35:26they're prepared to enter into these short ceasefires but they're not prepared to commit to more

00:35:34well as i said i think the russians have made their position crystal clear and i i don't think there's any point

00:35:42about speculating that it is going to change now i would just say one further thing and this is about

00:35:52putin's latest announcement putin throughout his time as president whenever he finds himself in a conflict

00:36:00has a habit of announcing brief ceasefires he did so for example repeatedly during the siege of aleppo

00:36:09in 2016 2017 as i very very well remember and um he's done so as i understand it during the various

00:36:20caucuses wars and he's done it several times um over the course of the crisis in ukraine

00:36:28he called a ceasefire in august 2014 when the militia backed by the russians unquestionably had the

00:36:39ukrainian army on the ropes and was about about to capture mariupo he did it again um in february 2015

00:36:49with the minsk agreement which was of course an agreement first and foremost for a ceasefire he did it

00:36:56again at the very beginning of the special military operation when he announced a one-day ceasefire on the

00:37:03second day of the special military operation after zelensky said that he was prepared to enter into

00:37:12talks about ending the conflict which would drop ukraine's bid to enter nato and of course he also

00:37:23in effect declared what is not exactly a ceasefire but amounts very much to the same thing

00:37:34which is that after the istanbul agreement was initialed he ordered the troops the russian troops

00:37:42to withdraw from the outskirts of kiev where they had taken positions so here's a habit of doing this

00:37:49this now to my absolute knowledge this is causes immense frustration within the russian military

00:38:00the at least or at any rate within the russian high command um they repeatedly point out that ukraine

00:38:08doesn't observe these ceasefires they can't see the point of them the ceasefires if they do nothing else

00:38:15interrupt momentum at a time when the russian army is advancing and at worst they now allow ukraine time to

00:38:26regroup and counter-attack we now know that ukraine did regain some positions some important positions

00:38:38as a result of the easter ceasefire and well there was one occasion when the russian military's exasperation

00:38:51with this practice of putin's boiled over and basically went public and that was at the time of the siege of aleppo

00:39:02when over when um there was a military defeat by the syrian army resulting in the capture by the insurgents

00:39:16for a second time of palmyra the ancient city of palmyra and a whole raft of retired russian generals obviously

00:39:28speaking for the military then began to appear on russian television and in russian media openly

00:39:36criticizing putin's habit of declaring ceasefires and saying that this was extremely unhelpful

00:39:45and um had slowed the process of the military campaign and had worked to the advantage of the adversary

00:39:52i am sure that this particular ceasefire is coming in in is coming up for similar criticism

00:40:03internally as well i strongly suspect that general gerasimov and the group of forces commanders on the

00:40:13battlefronts are extremely annoyed to put it mildly about it nonetheless it is something that putin is

00:40:23addicted to he's done it many many times and which no doubt he will continue to do

00:40:29um to the frustration of his military high command um always with putin political

00:40:41matters political perspectives objectives take priority for him in his politics that leads military action

00:40:51never the other way around and if he thinks that russia will gain some advantage by announcing a ceasefire

00:40:59of this kind especially with people like lula modi and si shimping in the russian capital and perhaps uneasy

00:41:10about attending the celebrations in red square whilst the fighting in ukraine is going on well if he sees that

00:41:22and thinks that something is achieved politically by achieving by announcing a ceasefire and something with

00:41:31the americans is also achieved well then he will do it despite whatever criticism and anger

00:41:40from the military that there is anyway there we are that is the russian position as i said i think it is

00:41:50pointless speculating that this position is going to change um i don't see any sign that the russians

00:41:58have shifted ground it would be fair to say in case somebody points it out that lavrov didn't mention

00:42:06restrictions restrictions limits on the size of the ukrainian military in either of his two interviews

00:42:14but frankly i suspect that that was just an oversight i don't think it was meant to suggest any

00:42:21concessions um on that issue by the russians so my own personal view is that this is these are the russian

00:42:30positions positions and i don't myself expect them to change in any way on the last point i said i should

00:42:37say that um lavrov actually said that the european proposals which appeared to be intended to strengthen

00:42:47ukraine to prepare for the next war basically tells me that the russian stance on limits on the ukrainian

00:42:58military have not changed so there we go that's the russian position what about the other side what

00:43:06about the americans and the europeans and indeed the ukrainians well as lavrov pointed out over the course

00:43:18of his interview with cbs just a couple of days ago when zelensky also gave an interview to the american

00:43:27media um zelensky appeared to rule out negotiations with the russians he said the russians cannot be

00:43:36trusted zelensky has repeatedly spoken about the importance of getting a ceasefire before any

00:43:44negotiations take place and the framework that he wants to see followed is clearly the one that the

00:43:50europeans no doubt with considerable input from him um set out during their during the meetings in paris

00:44:01and london next week so that's zelensky's current stance

00:44:09is he has very grudgingly and reluctantly shifted before at one point he didn't seem to be prepared to

00:44:21agree to a ceasefire at all unless um security guarantees from the united states came with it

00:44:30um after the meeting between the ukrainians and the americans in jeddah in march he appeared for a time to

00:44:40agree i don't think he has ever really been sincere about this the european proposal also again seemed to

00:44:49imply that the ukrainians expected security guarantees so i i don't really see that zelensky

00:45:00shows much sign of wanting to shift on his fundamental positions now there are reports i saw them somewhere and

00:45:11i can't remember where it was it was in the american media um but i saw reports that donald trump is

00:45:19becoming deeply frustrated is indeed becoming frustrated with the russians that he underestimated

00:45:26what he sees as putin's inflexibility on the terms for settling the conflict and that he's disappointed

00:45:37with all this and well i've already pointed out that the truth social posts that trump in which trump

00:45:50appeared to criticize putin perhaps doesn't carry as much weight as many people assume but i'm prepared

00:45:59to believe that with the russians saying that there have to be negotiations before a ceasefire and that

00:46:07these negotiations by definition may take some time with the russians suggesting i remember gregory karasin

00:46:16the russian chief negotiator saying that the negotiations could last for the whole of the rest

00:46:21of this year before we even get to the point of a ceasefire i understand why trump who clearly wants

00:46:31the fighting to end as quickly as possible so as he puts it to be able to get on with life um i can

00:46:42understand why he is deeply frustrated but and he's not going to be the only person who's frustrated i've read

00:46:52all kinds of articles and commentaries from people who undoubtedly their major priority is to see the war

00:47:02end who want to see the conflict scale down i've read all kinds of articles that i think would be baffled

00:47:14and frustrated and disappointed by the russian position once they've come to understand it there is

00:47:24for example another article by anatole levin in responsible statecraft which um says that it makes

00:47:34no sense for the russians to insist on the transfer he said it again transfer of the four regions

00:47:41to themselves all of the territory of the four regions to themselves that it would take them many

00:47:46months or even longer to capture the entire territory of the four regions that there would be enormous

00:47:53losses in doing so and that at the end of it all that the russians have would have devastated more

00:48:00devastated cities and what is the point of that especially if it wrecks the prospect of some kind

00:48:10of rapprochement with the united states well the problem with arguments of that kind and well it seems to

00:48:22me that there are firstly two problems with arguments of that kind the first is that i don't think

00:48:31it acknowledges the effect of war in shaping the perspectives of the sides which engage in it the russians

00:48:43have fought very hard for three years they're now winning the war and they sense that they're winning it decisively

00:48:51they now have a solid backing from their brics partners which they didn't always have but i suspect

00:49:00they now feel that they undoubtedly do have um these territories that are being fought over

00:49:11are as far as they are concerned historic russian lands and they are lived in by russian people

00:49:19odessa kharkov kiev in fact have been russian cities and the language that has been spoken in them by

00:49:28most of the people who live there has been russian and in the case of some of these cities perhaps not

00:49:34kiev but certainly the others there is a strong attachment and a strong attachment to russia

00:49:42expecting the russians to simply give all that up is to expect altogether perhaps too much at a time when

00:49:52they win the war yes they will have to make sacrifices and yes this could complicate their relations with the

00:50:02west going forward but i suspect that quite a few russians including putin himself probably feel that

00:50:13this is a price worth paying the second is that i think that the russians don't believe anyway that all

00:50:20of these proposals if they were ever accepted the ceasefires on the current front lines and all the various

00:50:27promises that the americans are apparently making in the form of kellogg minus ultimately have any long-term value

00:50:39i spoke yesterday about how it seems that u.s officials almost certainly meaning general kellogg

00:50:47uh apparently reassured the ukrainians at the meeting in london that even though trump solidly opposes

00:51:01ukrainian membership of nato a future a future u.s administration might not do so i touched yesterday

00:51:12on a lengthy report provided by apparently i haven't seen it obviously but apparently provided by the russian

00:51:22intelligence community which basically says the same thing that sooner or later if peace on these kind of

00:51:30terms is ever declared it won't be a peace at all it will simply be

00:51:38a pause before the next war a war which russia would have to fight from a weaker position certainly

00:51:49than the one in which it is in now now at this point perhaps one might make with some caveats qualifications

00:52:02a parallel with the ongoing conflict the fighting that is now going on between india and pakistan

00:52:10now i am not going to get into the detail of that fighting except to say that the situation seems to me

00:52:16to be deteriorating and to be extremely serious it began with a terrorist incident on

00:52:24indian territory the indian government is blaming pakistan as the instigator of that incident the

00:52:34the pakistani authorities as having instigated or at least being responsible for that incident the

00:52:41pakistan is completely denying all involvement i am not going to judge who is telling the truth on this

00:52:50all i would say is that as the pakistanis have at various times essentially admitted pakistan has had a

00:53:02history of backing militant groups who do engage in this sort of thing and i think it is completely

00:53:12unsurprising in light of that if the indian authorities and by the way the indian public

00:53:18do believe that pakistan bears responsibility for the latest incident and might indeed have provoked it

00:53:28but beyond that beyond this these specific issues of course we now also have other questions that are

00:53:37coming up india is now threatening to cut off supplies of water from the indus river and its tributaries to

00:53:46pakistan in violation of a treaty where violation in conflict with the treaty that india and pakistan

00:53:56agreed way back in 1960 to share the waters of the indus river and its tributaries

00:54:04by the way and for the record i'm not sure that this threat has any real meaning to it i'm not convinced

00:54:13that what the indians are saying they can they're going they might do they can actually do um i've had

00:54:21an engineer an indian engineer write to me and he's straightforwardly said that what the indians are

00:54:31threatening is actually impossible but were it to happen it would be a catastrophic blow to pakistan which

00:54:41relies on this water for its agriculture it would deepen the already existing economic crisis in pakistan

00:54:50and the pakistanis are saying that they would treat such a step as an act of war and they're pointing

00:54:56pointedly reminding everybody that they have 130 nuclear missiles pointing at targets in india and that

00:55:07that pakistan does actually have a first use policy if it feels that his back is to the wall

00:55:18it is prepared to use nuclear weapons in order to defend itself so this situation cannot be considered

00:55:28anything other than extremely dangerous and it might very very well spiral out of control now

00:55:38we're looking for parallels with the ukrainian conflict here i think is one now you can argue

00:55:45about the details of these latest incidents but there's no doubt at all to my mind that the starting

00:55:51point for the conflicts between the state of india and the state of pakistan goes all the way to partition

00:56:02in 19 in the late 1940s india became independent and pakistan which had been part of the british

00:56:13british british india was hived off to become a muslim state on what was previously the territory of british india

00:56:24now i'm not going to here revisit the whole topic of partition and the rights and wrongs of this i am

00:56:34absolutely not an expert in this history which is both very complicated and very important to understand

00:56:45by anybody who wants to pronounce on it i'm not going to embarrass myself by making mistakes which i might

00:56:53easily do if i started to talk about partition all i would say is that at the time in london

00:57:04as you can find if you burrow through the newspapers of that period you will find quite a few well-meaning

00:57:14people who said well why not resolve this problem in india by setting up these two different states

00:57:25living side by side with each other and that might provide for a long-term peace

00:57:32and that is an elegant and simple way to solve this problem well it has not solved the problem what it

00:57:44has done instead is that it's locked these two powerful countries into constant conflict with each

00:57:51other we've had a whole succession of wars between them we have constant conflict between them and in

00:57:59in some ways at least the situation seems to be becoming with each round of conflict and especially

00:58:06with nuclear weapons now it seems to be becoming increasingly dangerous well

00:58:12is it not at least possible that some of these elegant proposals that are being made now

00:58:25by well-intentioned people to end the conflict to freeze the conflict

00:58:31along the present conflict line might produce the same outcome instead of actually resolving the

00:58:43conflict in ukraine it creates a permanent front line with all of the dangers that come from that

00:58:56just to say so sometimes it's

00:59:02better to acknowledge that the parties to a conflict

00:59:09do have their own perspectives do have an understanding of the conflict better than

00:59:14even well are well-intentioned outsiders do and understanding also can mean an emotional

00:59:24understanding and acknowledge that one way or the other it simply has to be played out

00:59:34this at least has been my feeling all sorts of people when conflicts like this

00:59:40emerge think that the way to end them is for all sorts of well-intentioned outsiders to come along

00:59:51and to present what look to them to be very reasonable plans which they can then submit to both sides and

01:00:01they're usually baffled and surprised when each side for different reasons refuses this plan

01:00:11the americans by the way and by the way the british have a particular habit of doing this the americans

01:00:18constantly seem to think that it is their job to go around the world and to use diplomacy to end

01:00:27conflicts even conflicts which more often than not they themselves have caused and they come up with

01:00:35plans and i saw that even donald trump in one of his recent truth social posts is talking about how the

01:00:43united states it falls upon the united states now to negotiate settlements of certain conflicts in africa

01:00:54i am firmly of the view that sometimes it is better just to let things take their course however difficult

01:01:05that may be and that third parties who intrude themselves into conflicts not only bring problems

01:01:14upon themselves but often end up making the conflicts much worse in the case

01:01:23of the conflict in ukraine it is even more important it seems to me that the western powers stay out and

01:01:34give up any idea of coming up with plans like say kellogg's plan to end this particular conflict

01:01:45given that unequivocally as far as i am concerned this is a conflict which the western powers have caused and have

01:01:58made far far worse because they have pursued intentionally objectives in ukraine which makes it entirely

01:02:12inappropriate that they should try to act as mediators anyway that's all i want to say about this i think that

01:02:24perhaps

01:02:25the best thing to do in fact definitely the best thing to do now at least of the united states is tell the ukrainians and the russians

01:02:35well look

01:02:36the russians are saying that there should be negotiations they're not prepared to agree to a ceasefire

01:02:42there are good reasons why they're not prepared to agree to a ceasefire from their point of view

01:02:46after all they're winning the war even donald trump in his truth social post has said that this war is

01:02:54losing this is a losing war in other words it is a war that is being lost um um colonel richard kemp

01:03:03has made the same point in an article that has appeared in the daily telegraph that russia

01:03:10has won the war of attrition so

01:03:16except that the russians are in the stronger position that if they don't want a ceasefire

01:03:23a ceasefire isn't going to happen allow the ukrainians and the tell the ukrainians and the russians well

01:03:30all right it's up to you if you can't get a ceasefire then at least talk with each other and if they won't

01:03:37talk with each other let it go um anatole even in that same article that i spoke about a moment ago

01:03:51in which he basically says that the russians should indeed sacrifice their claims to the remaining

01:03:59territory of the four regions says that if the negotiations fail for that reason because the

01:04:07russians won't sacrifice this territory then the united states should continue its military support

01:04:14for ukraine um an absolutely sterile idea one that prolongs the war much more substantively

01:04:31than the stance that the russians are taking and one which i don't think donald trump wants to do

01:04:38and one which the americans who have excellent reasons for not wanting to do because of the

01:04:45steady depletion as they themselves have admitted of their own stockpiles so anyway there we are that's

01:04:53where we stand at the moment the russians are saying no to kellogg minus there is no reasons to expect

01:05:03that stance to change they're offering negotiations um whether the ukrainians agree is another matter

01:05:11if negotiations do start between the ukrainians and the russians my guess is they will be complicated and

01:05:20very difficult to take forward it won't be like the negotiations in march 2022 my guess is karasin is

01:05:28right it could be the end of the year before a ceasefire is achieved if even then now

01:05:40various other things have been taking place at the same time there's a report in the financial times

01:05:49which says that ukraine has been able to get the united states to agree to modify the mineral rights

01:05:57extraction deal so that any um profits made by the united states from this deal are not um

01:06:09are not credited against the debt ukraine owes to the united states for support the united states has already

01:06:21given of course this is what the ukrainians are saying i don't know whether this is what

01:06:26donald trump himself has agreed to but actually this is a meaningless concession because the mineral

01:06:36rights extraction deal gives the united states rights to these profits indefinitely whether they are

01:06:50profits to pay off debts incurred in the past or debts that might be incurred in the future

01:07:01seems to mean it seems to be all but irrelevant in that respect certainly the deal is unworkable

01:07:09unless there is a ceasefire and of that's for the moment as i said there is no sign but put that

01:07:16put that all aside i want to just return briefly to the topic of the meeting in rome now as a number of

01:07:24people have pointed out to me there is a british speech expert who's an expert in lip reading who's

01:07:31come up and said given us some accounts of some of these things that zelensky and trump apparently said

01:07:43over the course of that meeting firstly in my program yesterday i expressed some uncertainty about the exact

01:07:53sequence of events but i i did say that it looked to me as if trump had indeed shooed

01:08:02macron away from participation in the meeting well i'm not an expert in lip reading but i believe it is

01:08:15a fairly secure science and the information we're getting from this lip reader i think puts the matter

01:08:23completely beyond doubt trump apparently clearly said to macron that he wasn't wanted in the meeting

01:08:31and that he should basically shove off that it seems to me is now absolutely clear and really there

01:08:39isn't anything more to be said about this there's been the usual complicated

01:08:45arguments about this point in the media in parts of the media we're told that the purpose of the third

01:08:55chair was for the interpreter there wasn't any need for an interpreter zelensky speaks english so anyway

01:09:03whatever um it seems that simply wasn't true donald trump basically told macron to shove off it doesn't

01:09:12seem to me as if donald trump is very very happy altogether i get the sense that he's frustrated

01:09:20increasingly frustrated by both sides if he's already made by the way talking about the mineral rights

01:09:28extraction agreement he's frustrated that even now the ukrainians have not signed it i suspect the

01:09:37ukrainians are still by the way angling for some kind of security guarantee and i think he is frustrated

01:09:44that the russians have not agreed to kellogg minus to repeat again i think he should walk away but will

01:09:58he well we shall see now let's talk about other things firstly there is the announcement by the russians

01:10:09that the entire territory of course region apart apparently from a few few fields on the border but

01:10:16all the um populated communities that the entire territory has now been fully liberated by the russian

01:10:27army that the russians are once again in control of course region and apparently they've also pushed

01:10:35the ukrainians finally and conclusively away from the two villages of popovka and um demidovka in belgorod

01:10:46region well as all as i said um a great deal of celebration about this in the kremlin when putin met

01:10:56with gerasimov the chief of the general staff who reported this information to him and the russians have

01:11:04a good cause to celebrate because as i discussed in a program a few weeks ago korsk has been the biggest

01:11:13defeat by far that the ukrainians have suffered over the course of this war i say that because they

01:11:20might have lost more men in various other places perhaps despite what is sometimes said by the russians

01:11:27they perhaps they perhaps they lost more men for example during the summer 2023 counter-offensive but

01:11:35this was a battle that they chose themselves they entered kusk with completely nebulous objectives

01:11:47and they were comprehensively and utterly defeated and they have suffered very severe losses

01:11:56forces doing so now over the course of this report gerasimov however finally provided confirmation of this

01:12:08tantalizing story about the presence of north korean troops to uh kusk now i've been something of a skeptic

01:12:17about all of this because as i said these troops have been up to now largely invisible there were

01:12:24contradictions in american accounts they were supposed to be withdrawn in january then they were supposed

01:12:30to be brought back then zelensky provided various evidence for these troops which none of which stacked

01:12:37up or um came you know stood up to examination but against that i was receiving as i report in various

01:12:48programs a stream of reports from um a source in russia that there were indeed you could uh korean north

01:12:58korean troops in russia that they were indeed being intensively trained by the russians that the russians

01:13:04found these soldiers extraordinarily enthusiastic possessing very very high levels of motivation

01:13:15and morale but let down by outdated tactics uh the north korean army hasn't fought a proper war since the

01:13:28korean war of the 1950s and also having various health and other issues and fitness issues which needed to

01:13:36be sorted out and it was suggested that the deployment of some of these troops to kursk region might have

01:13:44taken place basically in order to familiarize them with the conduct of war now they however did participate

01:13:56and there's been a very interesting account of their involvement by a russian journalist called alexander

01:14:03korts very good journalist and he's spoken about their further in battle their very high motivation he's

01:14:12spoken about their high level of training which no doubt they had at this point but so much of what he said

01:14:22did seem to me actually when you studied it carefully to bear out the source in other words these were very

01:14:30very motivated very determined very reckless soldiers

01:14:36formidable fighters but fighters that need to be kept under tight control because they could run away and

01:14:46do things to themselves which would cause very very cause them to suffer very very high losses in ways

01:14:55that might be counterproductive now the russians and this is again through courts are saying that the

01:15:02major contribution of these north korean troops was in the fighting around the important village of korenovo

01:15:11now korenovo is located to the northeast of suja and there was tough battles in korenovo as i remember

01:15:22in late august in late august and september because when the ukrainians were blocked from advancing

01:15:29towards the course nuclear power plant along the main roads they tried to bypass the russian defenses

01:15:39by capturing the village of korenovo to the northwest and then arcing round and moving towards the course

01:15:48nuclear power plant and the town of korenovo from that direction so it seems that these north korean troops

01:15:57did play a role in the successful defense of korenovo interestingly cots does not provide any other details

01:16:06about the kind of fighting that they were involved in but anyway their contribution to the defense of korenovo

01:16:16indisputably indisputably was important it was the defeat of the ukrainians in korenovo which ultimately

01:16:26ended as is now clear ukraine's entire kursk operation now put all of this aside it

01:16:38seems that the north koreans are not going to participate in the fighting in the special military

01:16:47operation area both the russians and the north koreans have gone out of their way to say that the north

01:16:55korean troops were deployed in korea region along the borderlands under the new treaty the new mutual

01:17:07assistance treaty that north korea and russia have just agreed with each other now the russians are saying

01:17:21that this mutual assistance treaty extends to obligations similar obligations by russia to north

01:17:32korea and peskov again has discussed this and this is in tas russia will provide military assistance to

01:17:40north korea if the north korea if the need arises in line with the bilateral treaty whilst there is a

01:17:48treaty between us and in the this treaty both sides commit themselves to provide mutual assistance to

01:17:56each other and um that tells us something very important which is that north korea and russia now do

01:18:10conceive of themselves as military allies apparently the decision to send troops to to deploy north korean

01:18:21troops perhaps troops that were training in russia to fight in kursk was made by kim jong-un himself it was

01:18:30proposed by kim jong-un to putin but the point is that the russians are saying if the north koreans are

01:18:41prepared to do this for us are prepared to defend our territory to fight alongside us in defense of our

01:18:48territory then we have the same obligation towards them north korea is no longer isolated some years ago the

01:18:58chinese um repeated that they have a defense obligation a treaty obligation to defend north korea

01:19:14in case of attack i remember when this happened back in 2017 and now the russians are saying the same

01:19:26north korea now has the two most powerful brick states the two most the two eurasian giants china

01:19:36and russia as military allies and well i have long suspected myself that um north korea's enormous upgrade

01:19:49of its armed forces which has been underway over the last 10 years was getting some help from some

01:19:58outside source i'm starting to think that this relationship between russia and north korea has a

01:20:07longer history than i'd imagine and well where there is a military alliance as there clearly now is

01:20:18there is no real real prospect of the russians enforcing from this point going forward further sanctions

01:20:27against north korea north korea north korea is in from the cold and i think this is something that

01:20:33people need to understand apparently donald trump is now mulling the possibility of renewing his dialogue

01:20:42with kim jong-un and establishing diplomatic contacts and meeting kim jong-un again he tried to do this

01:20:52during his first term it didn't go so well then john bolton his national security advisor sabotaged it

01:21:02conditions have now very different as i said north korea now has the military backing of russia and china

01:21:09with the russians making it clear that this is an alliance and in light of that perhaps what trump wants

01:21:17to do now well it doesn't just make sense maybe it's becoming imperative now there is another angle

01:21:24to this just as the russians will probably now start providing economic assistance as well as military

01:21:31assistance to north korea it seems that north korea is now providing not just

01:21:38contingents of soldiers to fight on the russian border but also from what i understand a significant

01:21:48military aid not perhaps just missiles and the ukrainians are saying that some of the missiles

01:21:56that were recently launched against kiev were north korean missiles perhaps they were and not just

01:22:03just guns and we've seen some of these big 170 millimeter north korean guns paraded through russia

01:22:13but perhaps most important of all north korea apparently has enormous

01:22:21capacity for producing shells now i saw a report i don't know whether this is true that

01:22:29north korea is able to produce around 9 million shells a year that the factories

01:22:39exist in order to do that and the workers are there to make that possible as well now to my knowledge

01:22:51north korean shells and military equipment previously had very significant um quality control

01:22:59issues but perhaps given all the other assistance that the north koreans have been getting from

01:23:05presumably the russians over 10 of the last 10 years those quality control issues have been addressed

01:23:13now remember that a few weeks ago general sirsky the ukrainian chief commander spoke about how the

01:23:22russians were firing 40 000 rounds of shells a day during the summer and autumn fighting last year

01:23:32and that this then fell to 20 000 rounds a day over the course of the winter but this has now crept up to

01:23:4128 000 rounds of shells a day over the last few weeks 40 000 rounds of shells

01:23:50a day across a whole year would come to around 14 and a half million shells

01:23:5828 000 rounds of shells a day would come to about 10 million shells over the course of a year

01:24:10russian production of shells is said to be around five million four to five million some people put it

01:24:18lower at three million um others at four and a half four million i think it's more likely five million

01:24:25for reasons i'm not going to say well if you add nine million shells produced maybe for russia each year

01:24:34you begin to understand why 40 000 shells a day over prolonged periods might not be beyond the capacities of

01:24:43the russian military at the present time well the last thing i want to say very last thing i want to say

01:24:50before i end this program is that there are now reports that the ukrainian forces are now

01:24:57beginning to retreat from central chasse of yah in fact there's apparently this film of them trying to do so

01:25:03and of russian drones intercepting them as they retreat it looks to me as if chasse of yah has perhaps

01:25:13been a russian priority battle over the last weeks basically since the fall of toretsk before

01:25:21toretsk was given more importance now it looks as if it's chasse of yah well if so and if chasse of yah is

01:25:30indeed about to fall then as i said that will be another important moment in the battle but i think

01:25:38it's perhaps better if i turn and discuss all of that in more detail in my next program this is where

01:25:45i'm going to finish let me remind you again you can find all our programs on our various platforms

01:25:50locals rumble and x you can support our work via patreon and subscribestar and by going to our shop

01:25:58don't forget if you like this video to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this

01:26:03channel that's me for today more from me soon have a very good day

01:26:28so

01:26:33you

01:26:35you

🇷🇺 Lavrov: Kiev Regime Must Go — Crimea, 4 Regions, Zaporozhye NPP Are Russian | Alexander Mercouris | Forbidden News

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