#silberpreis #goldpreis #investing
In diesem Video untersuchen wir, was ein fairer Wert oder Preis für Silber sein könnte. Wir betrachten verschiedene Bewertungsmethoden, darunter die Gold-Silber-Ratio, die Fördermenge und weitere Faktoren. Wenn Ihnen der Inhalt gefällt und Sie keine weiteren Videos verpassen möchten, lass ein Abo da.
#silber #gold #investment #edelmetalle
In diesem Video untersuchen wir, was ein fairer Wert oder Preis für Silber sein könnte. Wir betrachten verschiedene Bewertungsmethoden, darunter die Gold-Silber-Ratio, die Fördermenge und weitere Faktoren. Wenn Ihnen der Inhalt gefällt und Sie keine weiteren Videos verpassen möchten, lass ein Abo da.
#silber #gold #investment #edelmetalle
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LernenTranskript
00:00Welcome to Dinant's Journey.
00:03Silver, the bordering metal, has fascinated humanity for thousands of years.
00:08As the little brother of gold, it is also interesting for many investors.
00:12And rightly so.
00:14Silver has experienced an incredible 180% increase in value over the last 5 years.
00:20This is really impressive and beats even the popular stocks by far.
00:24But there is still no end in sight.
00:26Experts expect silver to rise even higher.
00:30But how high? What price is realistic?
00:34So welcome back.
00:36In this video we deal with exactly that.
00:39I will discuss various methods for determining value and explain to you which price target is realistic.
00:46If this sounds interesting to you, please subscribe for free so you don't miss anything in the future.
00:52On this channel you can expect informative yet entertaining content on the topic of finance.
01:00Before we begin, as always, the note.
01:03The content of this video does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for action.
01:10What I present to you is only the result of my research.
01:13But now let's get started.
01:14Part 1
01:16The initial situation
01:17But what is it actually about?
01:20What makes silver so special?
01:23The change we are currently experiencing affects the entire precious metals market.
01:27But silver in particular is in the spotlight and can benefit from the developments.
01:32Silver
01:33A metal that most people only know as jewelry or as coins for collectors.
01:37First, let's clarify why silver has been so undervalued.
01:42For years, the price hovered between $15 and $25 per ounce.
01:48Gold, on the other hand, received all the attention and became the darling of the crisis currency.
01:53But now it is becoming clear that this will change rapidly.
01:57Silver has an incredible advantage.
01:59Because it is not only a precious metal, it is also an indispensable industrial metal.
02:05Let me explain to you what that means.
02:07Unlike gold, which is mainly stored, we use silver every day.
02:12It's found in solar panels, electric vehicles, medical devices, and pretty much every electronic device you own.
02:21So each of us invests in silver.
02:23Whether consciously or unconsciously.
02:25And industry accounts for over 70% of total demand.
02:30There is currently no alternative to silver.
02:32The metal is very flexible and malleable and also conducts electronic current perfectly.
02:39This is what makes silver unique.
02:41It has a foothold in the world of safe investments in times of crisis and, at the same time, benefits massively from technological progress and the green revolution.
02:49Part 2
02:51The current market situation
02:53Let's look at what's happening right now.
02:56After decades of underperformance against gold, silver is beginning to catch up and could grow rapidly in the process.
03:03Let’s start with our first metric.
03:06The gold-silver ratio.
03:08This indicates how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold.
03:13Historically, this ratio was 15 to 1 for a very long time.
03:18So gold was 15 times more expensive than silver.
03:21This is mainly due to its natural occurrence.
03:25Silver is about 15 times more abundant in the earth than gold.
03:30A short comment on my own behalf.
03:32I noticed that very few of you have subscribed.
03:35If you've watched the video up to this point, please subscribe for free.
03:39Or write me in the comments what's stopping you.
03:42But now comes the interesting part.
03:45The ratio is currently over 90.
03:48This means you would need over 90 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
03:53Or to put it another way, silver is massively undervalued.
03:57This extreme imbalance is not sustainable and the market is already beginning to correct.
04:02According to experts, a further correction towards the historical average is to be expected.
04:08And that in the near future.
04:11But what does that mean in concrete terms?
04:13Even if the ratio were to fall to just 40 to 1, a quite realistic scenario,
04:19because this is still well above the historical average
04:22and the gold price remains stable at its current level, the silver price would have to almost triple.
04:28It would easily exceed 50 euros per ounce.
04:32But there are other factors that drive up the price of silver.
04:36First.
04:37Mining production has stagnated for years, while industrial demand is exploding.
04:43The energy transition consumes incredible amounts of silver.
04:47A simple electric car requires up to 30 grams.
04:50A solar cell can even weigh up to 20 grams per panel.
04:54However, most of the silver has already been mined.
04:56And there is already a massive silver deficit every year.
05:00Last year, 1.2 billion ounces of silver were consumed.
05:06However, mine production only amounted to 800 million ounces.
05:10This resulted in a deficit of 400 million ounces.
05:14Let that melt on your tongue.
05:17400 million ounces.
05:18So 5 ounces for every person in Germany.
05:22The deficit was so gigantic.
05:25Secondly.
05:26The physical silver stocks in the registered warehouses of the COMEX, the most important futures exchange
05:32for precious metals, have fallen to historic lows.
05:36In the last three years, these stocks have more than halved.
05:39This is closely related to the first point.
05:42Because if more silver is sold than is mined, stocks must inevitably
05:47sink.
05:49Some experts estimate that they could be completely empty by 2033.
05:55Third.
05:56Institutional investors are beginning to discover silver.
06:00BlackRock, JP Morgan and other giants have massively increased their silver holdings.
06:06And often in silence, so that the price does not rise too quickly while they
06:11build up.
06:12So silver is becoming scarcer and scarcer.
06:15Part 3.
06:16The fair value of silver.
06:18But what is a fair price for silver?
06:22To understand this, we need to take a look at different valuation models.
06:27Model 1.
06:28The historical relationship to gold.
06:30If we look at the average of the last 100 years, the gold-silver ratio
06:35at about 15 to 1.
06:38With the current gold value of roughly $3,000, this would give a fair silver price of
06:43200 dollars.
06:45So far above the current level.
06:48A real price explosion is imminent.
06:51Model number 2.
06:53The production costs.
06:54The all-in costs, AISC for short, for the production of our silver are
07:00primary silver mines are currently trading at $17 to $22 per ounce.
07:05Traditionally, the fair market price is about 1.5 to 2 times the production costs.
07:11This suggests a fair value of $30 to $44 per ounce.
07:16If you only look at the funding stocks.
07:18However, I have already mentioned that the funding stocks are rapidly running out and more
07:23is consumed than extracted.
07:25Realistically, the price of silver would have to be even higher.
07:29Model 3.
07:30supply and demand
07:32Since 2020, we have had a structural deficit in the silver market.
07:36We consume more silver than we produce.
07:40This deficit will be further exacerbated by the Industrial Revolution.
07:44The Silver Institute forecasts a deficit of over 200 million
07:49ounces per year.
07:50With limited supply and increasing demand, there is no way around higher prices
07:55over.
07:56My conservative estimate for a fair silver price is therefore at least 50 dollars
08:02per ounce.
08:03But in a market euphoria, as we experience again and again with gold, 80, 100
08:08or even $200 is quite possible.
08:11Especially if central banks continue to print money and thus fuel inflation.
08:16Part 4.
08:17The psychology of the silver market
08:19What many don't understand is that silver is a tiny market.
08:24The total annual revenue of all silver mines worldwide is approximately $25 million.
08:29For comparison, that's less than a tenth of Apple's market capitalization.
08:35This small market size makes silver extremely volatile.
08:39When large capital flows into this small market, the price can explode
08:44climb.
08:44We have already seen this in the past when the silver price has risen within a few
08:49months from $18 to $49.
08:53I think that such an explosion is likely now.
08:57But most private investors do not understand this silver dynamic.
09:02They only notice silver when the mainstream media reports on it.
09:06But by then it is often already too late for the biggest profits.
09:09Because the early stages of a precious metal radio are usually quiet.
09:14The general public only gets involved when prices have already risen significantly.
09:19This is exactly the phase we are currently experiencing with silver.
09:2290% of investors only become active when prices have already exploded.
09:26Do you want to be part of that 90% or would you rather be part of the 10% who are prepared?
09:33Then you should subscribe now.
09:37Part 5.
09:38The associated risks.
09:39Of course, we also have to talk about the risks.
09:42Because silver is not a risk-free investment.
09:45You should consider the following points.
09:481.
09:48Silver is volatile.
09:50Price fluctuations of 5% in one day are not uncommon.
09:56If you can't sleep at night because the value of your invested money fluctuates, silver is not for you.
10:012.
10:02There are powerful market participants who have an interest in low or low silver prices.
10:08The large banks sometimes hold massive short positions in the futures market.
10:14These can push down the price in the short term, even if the long-term trend is upward.
10:19Some banks have even been sued and convicted for manipulating the price of silver downwards.
10:253.
10:25A global recession could temporarily reduce or stagnate industrial demand for silver.
10:33But in my opinion the question is not whether the price of silver will rise, but when.
10:37And that is precisely why an appropriate strategy is so important.
10:41Part 6.
10:42The psychology of investing.
10:46Let's talk about you.
10:47Why are you still hesitant to invest in silver when all signs point to an increase?
10:53The answer lies in human psychology.
10:57We tend to focus on investments that are currently performing very well.
11:02When tech stocks boomed, everyone wanted to buy tech stocks.
11:05When Bitcoin exploded, everyone was talking about it.
11:09Silver, however, was rather unspectacular for years.
11:12In my opinion, wrongly.
11:14And then there is the herd behavior.
11:16People follow the crowd.
11:18If no one around you is talking about silver, the chances are very low that you'll consider it.
11:25The Euronie is, it is precisely these psychological factors that make silver such a great opportunity.
11:31While the masses are still focused on other assets, informed investors can build positions in silver.
11:37And all this at prices that will seem ridiculously low in just a few years.
11:41Part 7. Concrete forecasts and timeframes.
11:45Let's get specific.
11:47How will the price of silver develop?
11:49Based on my analysis, I expect the following scenarios.
11:53Short term.
11:55So 6 to 12 months.
11:57Here the price of silver will remain volatile.
12:00But with a clear upward trend.
12:02I see a quite realistic target at $40 to $50 per ounce.
12:07Medium term.
12:08So 1 to 3 years.
12:10If central banks continue to pursue expansionary monetary policies and industrial demand continues to rise,
12:16I expect the first breakout above the psychologically important mark of 50 dollars.
12:21The price target is then between 50 and 100 US dollars per ounce.
12:25Long-term.
12:26So in 3 to 5 years.
12:28This is where things get really interesting.
12:29Given the structural deficit and the growing importance of silver for the energy transition, the price of silver could truly explode during this period.
12:38I think a price of $250 to $300 per ounce could be realistic in the near future.
12:45Of course, these are only predictions.
12:47No guarantees.
12:49And the path to the top will not be a straight line.
12:51There will be setbacks.
12:53Maybe even painful ones.
12:54The smartest investors will use these pullbacks to buy more while the masses sell in panic.
13:01The fact is, the silver market is in a perfect storm of rising industrial demand,
13:08stagnating production, growing investor interest and brand economic tailwind from inflation and monetary expansion.
13:16But what does all this mean for you?
13:19If you've never considered silver as an investment, now is the time to seriously consider it.
13:26Not with your entire assets, but with a strategic portion of your portfolio.
13:31The next few years will be extremely interesting for silver investors.
13:36While the masses are still chasing traditional markets,
13:39A situation is building up in the silver market that could lead to a historic price explosion.
13:45Remember, the biggest gains are not made by following the crowd,
13:50but by being well informed and willing to swim against the tide.
13:54And I am sure that those who bet on silver now will be grateful in the future
13:58and regretting not having acquired more.
14:01If you liked the topic and don’t want to miss anything,
14:05then leave a free subscription now.
14:07Also, please share this video with your friends to inform them too.
14:12Never before has it been more important to have knowledge about silver.
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