🎙️ What are Russia’s true military objectives?
In this exclusive discussion with Stanislav Krapivnik, we break down the current Russian military strategy and how it is shaping the future of the Ukraine conflict 🇺🇦 and global geopolitics 🌍.
🔍 Key topics discussed:
⚔️ Russia’s military goals in Ukraine and beyond
🌍 The global impact of Russia’s actions
💥 The geopolitical implications of the ongoing conflict
🧠 Krapivnik’s insights into Russia’s next moves
🇪🇺 The West’s reaction and strategic shift
🗣️ This in-depth interview provides critical insight into the Russian perspective on military objectives and their long-term plans.
💬 Watch, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments!
🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe for more strategic analysis from The Duran.
#RussianMilitary
#StanislavKrapivnik
#TheDuran
#RussiaUkraineWar
#MilitaryStrategy
#RussiaObjectives
#Geopolitics
#UkraineConflict
#Russia2025
#KrapivnikAnalysis
#MilitaryTactics
#RussianForces
#Ukraine2025
#GlobalPolitics
#RussianStrategy
#RussianPerspective
#MilitaryGoals
#PoliticalAnalysis
#PutinUkraine
#RussianIntervention
#DuranAnalysis
In this exclusive discussion with Stanislav Krapivnik, we break down the current Russian military strategy and how it is shaping the future of the Ukraine conflict 🇺🇦 and global geopolitics 🌍.
🔍 Key topics discussed:
⚔️ Russia’s military goals in Ukraine and beyond
🌍 The global impact of Russia’s actions
💥 The geopolitical implications of the ongoing conflict
🧠 Krapivnik’s insights into Russia’s next moves
🇪🇺 The West’s reaction and strategic shift
🗣️ This in-depth interview provides critical insight into the Russian perspective on military objectives and their long-term plans.
💬 Watch, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments!
🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe for more strategic analysis from The Duran.
#RussianMilitary
#StanislavKrapivnik
#TheDuran
#RussiaUkraineWar
#MilitaryStrategy
#RussiaObjectives
#Geopolitics
#UkraineConflict
#Russia2025
#KrapivnikAnalysis
#MilitaryTactics
#RussianForces
#Ukraine2025
#GlobalPolitics
#RussianStrategy
#RussianPerspective
#MilitaryGoals
#PoliticalAnalysis
#PutinUkraine
#RussianIntervention
#DuranAnalysis
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00All right, Alexander, we are here with Stanislav, joining us once again on the Duran, so we can talk about what is happening on the front lines in Ukraine.
00:11So, Stanislav, before we get started, where can people follow your work?
00:15Okay, so on YouTube, I have a channel called Mr. Slavic Man, and that's a K instead of a C.
00:22On Telegram, I have a Russian channel, Stasodayabratna, and English channel, Stasodayabratna.
00:30All right, definitely follow Stanislav's work.
00:32I will have a link to his channels in the description box down below and as a pinned comment as well.
00:38Alexander, let's discuss what is happening on the front lines with Stanislav.
00:43Indeed, we should, because, in fact, one of the most interesting things I've noticed about the media in the West is that they stopped talking about the front lines very much.
00:52It used to be the case that I remember back in 2022, 2023.
00:58It was full of it.
00:59I remember the Guardian, every day they had live updates on the wall.
01:04They no longer – I noticed that they no longer do that at all.
01:09But, of course, the reality is that things are happening on the front lines.
01:14What they do talk about, and constantly, is these catastrophic Russian losses that we're supposed to be experiencing, that the Russian army is losing one or two or three thousand men a day.
01:28There was an article by a man called Michael Clarke, for example, in the Telegraph.
01:34You might know about him.
01:35He goes a lot on British television as well, in which he spoke about how Russian losses are huge, but it won't stop the Russians still advancing.
01:45Anyway, perhaps we can get some real information.
01:50So, Stanislav, can you perhaps give us a quick overview?
01:53I'll tell you what I basically feel is happening now, which is that over the course of 2024, early 2025, the Russians came right bang up to the really key places in Donbass.
02:12The three cities, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk, and that what we're going to see over the next couple of weeks and months, probably, is the battle for those three cities really begin.
02:25But that's my own sense.
02:27Maybe you can fill out the details and tell us whether or not you think that's right.
02:32Yes, it is.
02:34Well, first of all, recently, Chesov-Yar is basically all but falling.
02:37That was a key fortress.
02:39The citadel is falling.
02:41What's left of the Ukrainian forces are going to have to either choose to stay in place and die, run for it, and the majority will still die because they're running across open land.
02:51So, throw away the heavy equipment and make a bolt for it, or surrender.
02:57No, the intelligent thing would be surrender.
03:00But as we've seen in places like in Kursk, a lot of them decided to stay and fight.
03:07And we're destroyed in turn.
03:10The monastery, of course, at the monastery, there were a lot of former inmates, murderers, rapists that had been committing murder.
03:16So, they knew surrendering for them was going to be still a death sentence.
03:20Either way, they weren't going to exactly be greeted with open arms.
03:24The airborne troops trying to surrender.
03:26This is the monastery in Kursk region.
03:29Right.
03:29This is the one near Gornal.
03:31Yeah.
03:31Yeah.
03:32Gornal was – no, I mean, the monasteries are built like fortresses.
03:36If you've never been to a Russian Orthodox monastery, especially the older ones that are built out of – they're not built – the really older ones are not even built out of bricks.
03:45They're built out of stone blocks.
03:48We're talking, you know, stone blocks about that thick.
03:51So, you're looking at meter to two-meter thick walls.
03:56So, yes, they're built like a fortress.
03:58And they were fortresses.
03:59They have exterior walls.
04:01Historically, they were fortresses.
04:03Because while the monks lived there, those were the places that the people ran to whenever there were raiders coming in from the various steppe tribes.
04:12And they'd hide behind the walls.
04:14So, these were actually additionally to fortresses, even though they may not have had a specific garrison, but they also served that secondary role.
04:21So, they were built that way.
04:22So, yeah, that was a very big strong point that they took.
04:32Plus, I think there's a good element of paganism involved because what they do in these – for supposedly Orthodox people, a lot of them were never Orthodox or have gone away from Orthodoxy or have surrendered their souls.
04:46Because the things that they do in those monasteries is reminiscent of what the Bolsheviks did back in the 1920s, early 20s particularly, when they were trying to destroy the church.
04:57I mean, that is exactly what they're doing.
05:00Sacrilege on all levels.
05:03As far as the rest, now, Slavansk, Krematorsk, there is going to be a battle there.
05:09But it's not going to be a head-on battle the way most people, if they're looking at a map, are going to think it's going to be a battle.
05:14Because that's a suicide battle.
05:17Krematorsk and Slavansk are situated higher ground than what is east of them.
05:24So, it's fighting your way out.
05:25The battle to look at is Krasna Limon.
05:29The Russian forces are moving back into Limon.
05:31Historically, that's exactly how it fell during World War II.
05:35That's how it was looking to fall during 22, before the retreat from Kharkov, because there's just not enough troops to cover the letter.
05:42Right. Partially true, but also because of the retreat, they pulled out the iron fist, Ukrainian iron fist that was hiding in Kharkov in a parking garage.
05:52They had to come out to do battle in eastern Ukraine and were destroyed, heavily attrited.
05:58Even though they gained ground, they were heavily attrited.
06:00Now, the wave is going back.
06:02And there's movement toward Krasna Limon.
06:06Not that far anymore.
06:07I mean, it's coming pretty close.
06:09Krasna Limon sits higher than the others.
06:12Right?
06:12It's on a much higher ground.
06:15And it's to the north, northwest even a little bit.
06:18You take that, and you start coming down south, downwards, because you're moving from high ground to lower ground to hit Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
06:28So it's easier logistics.
06:30It's easier to attack because you're attacking downward, not upward.
06:33You put pressure in from the east, and then you do the death stroke from the northwest.
06:39And that also cuts their main supply lines into those two cities.
06:45So that's a battle to look forward to.
06:46Look to the north, just a little bit to the north and northwest of Kramatorsk.
06:50That's where the main attack is going to come from.
06:52Once Krasna Limon falls, the days of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are numbered.
07:00Slavyansk is a very big moral point where I think they're going to do a lot to try to hold it.
07:06Because that's the first big spark of the revolt.
07:09Before the revolt, so people just understand this.
07:12Before the actual revolt and all the volunteers came in, both the volunteers living in eastern Ukraine and volunteers in Russia.
07:19Can I just quickly say, this is the revolt that took place in 2014.
07:23This is the original uprising that took place directly after the seizure of power in Kiev by the Maidan forces.
07:31There was an uprising in eastern Ukraine, and it originated and was centered on Slavyansk.
07:39Just to take it from there.
07:41That's the point, though.
07:42There was actually some time between the Maidan revolution and this revolt.
07:49And during that time, yes, there were demonstrations over eastern Ukraine.
07:52And what the eastern Ukraine is, I'm not going to talk about Crimea.
07:54Crimea is a whole different entity.
07:56It was autonomous to begin with.
07:58Yeltsin was even offered to take Crimea, but he refused.
08:03I guess he was in an alcoholic stupor at the moment, pretty much every day.
08:07So that was a lost opportunity.
08:10But, like a lot of lost opportunities during Yeltsin.
08:14But those eastern provinces rebelled originally for one thing.
08:19They weren't demanding to join Russia.
08:21They weren't demanding independence.
08:23They were demanding federalization.
08:26Because to understand what that means is, they didn't elect their governors.
08:31The governors were oligarchs that were giving feeding grounds.
08:34This is your province.
08:36You feed off of it.
08:37Two-thirds of the money goes to Kiev.
08:39You keep one-third of the money.
08:40Do whatever the hell you want.
08:41You know, basically a feudal system.
08:44Here's your barony.
08:45Do with it what you want.
08:46But, you know, you make sure you feed the king up top.
08:49And that's exactly how eastern Ukraine functioned.
08:51Well, all of Ukraine functioned, really.
08:53The east rose up demanding federalization.
08:56Election of governors.
08:57Saying where their taxes went and how they were spent.
09:01You know, standard things in the U.S., standard things in Germany, standard things in a lot of countries.
09:05But, for some reason, the standard federalized West decided that, no, they didn't like that.
09:12So, let's go crush it through with our proxies.
09:15Well, we know why.
09:15I mean, obviously.
09:16I'm being sarcastic.
09:18So, that was, Slavyansk was the first real explosive point.
09:22But, before that, what was happening was, during these demonstrations, the SBU, which we know from, again, New York Times a year ago.
09:31The present SBU is nothing like the SBU before 2014.
09:36Quite the vast majority of the officers of the SBU were fired.
09:39Quite a few of them were arrested.
09:40All new people were brought in by the CIA and MI6.
09:45And, they created this terrorist organization, which is the modern SBU, this terrorist, Gestapo-type organization that both has internal concentration camps for any dissent and can carry out savage terrorist attacks in other areas.
09:59And, which, by the way, is going to be a headache for Europe for the next decades to come.
10:02Because, these people are going to spread to organized crime.
10:05They're going to spread to, and they already have.
10:07And, so on and so on.
10:08And, so Europe is creating a cancer for itself that's not going to go away anytime soon.
10:13And, they're also very much linked with Islamic terrorism.
10:17They've been training Islamic terrorists in Africa, in Syria.
10:22So, this is going to be a big headache.
10:24So, what they were doing is, during these demonstrations, they would send in their agents, videotape the demonstration, and they would pose as part of the demonstration, figure out who the heads were, and they could kill them for murder.
10:35And, they're finding bodies in the woods, outside of Kharkov, outside of Mariupol.
10:41These people were just being disappeared.
10:44And, eventually, that just exploded, because the pressure was growing, and people were understanding what was happening.
10:50They weren't being listened.
10:51Not only were they being listened to, they were being murderously suppressed.
10:54And, it just exploded, and Slavyansk was that first, that first match that lit this whole fire that's been going for the last 11 years.
11:04And, this is now why the Russians are so invested in recapturing it, because it was the center, it was the actual focal point of the original resistance.
11:17Now, can you just explain to us this, what is the position of Chasov-Yar in all of this?
11:24Because, south of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, there's this other term, which is Konstantinovka.
11:30I've heard that it is in low ground, relative to Chasov-Yar, and indeed, Toretsk as well.
11:37Toretsk, I understand in Russian it's called Dzerzhinsk, but let's just call it Toretsk, just to keep everybody clear as to what they are.
11:45But, there seems to be an awful lot of fighting going on around these places, around, you know, with Chasov-Yar, as you rightly say, it's basically, it looks like it's basically over.
11:59Toretsk, it is over, as far as I can tell, despite attempts by the Ukrainians to keep it going in some form.
12:06But, what is the importance of this battle, and what is the importance of Chasov-Yar, relative to the rest of it?
12:13Well, outside of the obvious PR battle, because we're dealing with an enemy that, number one, prioritizes PR, and thank God for that.
12:21Those areas are the final fortresses in central Ukraine, on the front line of the main defensive line.
12:30Behind that are earthworks that have been thrown up over the last year, perhaps since.
12:36You're looking at company, maybe battalion-sized strong points, but the point is, it's not a continuous strong line.
12:43This is a line, Chasov-Yar is part of the line that they've been preparing for 11 years, pouring massive amounts of cement, concrete, or rather cement, preparing stock points for ordnance.
12:58And this is, once this falls, the fortifications behind it are not adequate enough to hold.
13:04They may slow down, advance somewhat, but they're not going to hold it.
13:09There's no way they're going to hold it.
13:10What you get is, is basically, you explode the central portion of the front.
13:15And in this case, you're able to cut off a lot of the supply heading to the southern portion of the front, toward Zaporozhye.
13:21And you also have a better chance of a deep encirclement of Pokrovsk to the north, Krasno-Armetsk.
13:29And Pokrovsk itself is a logistics point.
13:32Already it's been cut off, the logistic flow to the south has been cut off, because Pokrovsk is cut off in the south.
13:40The north is partially encircled, but the northern routes, one of the reasons Krasno-Lemon is coming under a lot of pressure is their supply lines are being cut.
13:49They're under fire, they're under tactical encirclement, so it's only a matter of time.
13:55Now, they've been throwing everything they can, especially in the southern pincer, as far as counterattacks.
14:01And while they've had, the Vassuru in this case, the Ukrainians, while they've had some local success, it's nothing that they can hold.
14:08So it's tactical level assaults with lots of losses.
14:12They'll grab a little piece here and there, but then they'll get kicked out, then they'll grab it again.
14:16And it's back and forth. It has worked as far as slowing down the southern pincer, or actually even stopping its movement for now.
14:23But it's costing them so much to do it, it's not something that they can sustain.
14:27And all the victories are ethereal, because they're losing those territories almost as fast as their game.
14:34But they keep throwing in the reserves, what reserves they have.
14:37Because to Luz-Pakrovsk, it's done.
14:41You've got basically a very fast run toward the Dnieper and toward the eastern Dnieper-Petrovsk.
14:47There's not a lot there, there's not a lot of villages you can form a line on.
14:50It's pretty open territory, steppe.
14:52There's not even that much farmland with the tree lines.
14:56So it becomes impossible to hold.
14:57I mean, you can hold strong points, but they'll just get walked around.
15:01Now, they're throwing a lot of drones in that area.
15:04I mean, massive amounts of drones.
15:06Drones are a major problem.
15:09And that's not under question.
15:11Russia's drone manufacturing is going up in folds.
15:16But unfortunately, Ukraine still does have 50 nations backing with drone manufacturing.
15:22So, yeah, they're still ahead for now, anyways.
15:25Now, more and more of those drones are heading over from both sides.
15:29It started with Russia, now it's on the Ukraine side, into fiber-optic cables.
15:34So the only way you're going to beat a fiber-optic cable is if you can come up with an AMP weapon of some sort.
15:40There's different work.
15:41Can you just explain what that is?
15:43An AMP weapon?
15:45What does that mean?
15:45EMP.
15:46EMP.
15:47Electromagnetic Pulse.
15:48Now, the standard electromagnetic pulse is what happens when a nuclear explosion happens.
15:54But you can simulate a localized EMP through large electrical discharges.
15:59The question is, you know, how are you going to do it?
16:01So there's – I've seen patents where even – there was an American company that patented – of course, they haven't made it yet.
16:08But they patented a concept of a air-pressurized burst for an EMP, where basically you have a blank round in an M16.
16:20You have an EMP attachment up top of it.
16:23And the pressurized air from that blank round converts into electrical energy, and that shoots out a localized EMP.
16:32What it basically does is it creates an electromagnetic charge on the chips and on the wiring, and it just burns the chips out of whatever electronics that's not armored up.
16:43But you can't armor up a drone because then it can't fly.
16:46So you get one or two things.
16:47You get an armored drone that's not going to be affected by EMP, but it doesn't fly, or you get a drone that flies.
16:52That's about the only way you're going to deal with fiber-optic drones, unfortunately, is to burn them out.
16:59Well, you shoot them out of the sky, obviously.
17:01That's a standard practice right now.
17:03But that's becoming more and more of a problem as it evolves.
17:06And the range of these things, even with fiber-optics, is about 20 kilometers right now and growing.
17:14So, I mean, they're serious enough weapons, obviously.
17:18And you get really, really good feed off of them.
17:19It's so long as a blurry picture.
17:21You see it right when it flies into something.
17:24You see the expression on the people's faces.
17:26So it's a very, very good feed on the fiber-optics, obviously.
17:32And that's the situation, I'm going to.
17:34Right.
17:34Okay.
17:34So let's just go a little bit forward because, I mean, the Ukrainians are trying to hold on to all of these positions, but they're about to lose Joseph Jan.
17:45Pokrovsk is looking difficult.
17:47And we also have difficult situations coming with Slavyansk and Kramatorsk if Krasny Liman falls.
17:57What happens if all of these places fall?
18:00What happens to the Ukrainian positions if these cities, these towns, big towns, if Ukraine loses them?
18:11Where does that leave the wall?
18:15I mean, you spoke about the Dnieper.
18:20Give us some idea of what the consequences of the loss of these places, what it would be.
18:26Well, by law, as we know, by constitution, Russia cannot surrender a single square centimeter of territory.
18:36That's now part of the Russian Federation.
18:39Zaporozhye is to the north.
18:42Zaporozhye is on the east side of the Dnieper or the right bank.
18:47Because if you're going down the Dnieper, as they used to go down, that was – I'm sorry, the left bank.
18:51That was the left bank.
18:54For people to orient, when they say left bank, right bank, it's actually the opposite of what you're thinking.
18:58Because people are going south down the river to trade.
19:00So they were looking at it that way.
19:03It's on the left bank.
19:04What happens if the center –
19:06Can I just say, that's the east bank, to be clear.
19:08That is the east bank.
19:10Yeah.
19:11Zaporozhye's city falls.
19:13And I'll just say why.
19:14Because once the center bursts and the front moves up to the Dnieper in those areas,
19:20they're now going to be fighting a two-front war for the east and the south with very limited logistical support from across the Dnieper.
19:28Only a couple of bridges.
19:29So that's something that they're not going to be able to hold long term.
19:33Now, Kherson is on the west bank, on the right bank of the Dnieper.
19:40So that has to be crossed, and that has to be retaken.
19:43That's about half of Kherson Obelis is on the other side.
19:47Now, it looks like there's been a decision that obviously Kiev doesn't want peace.
19:52Now, Russia is categorically against a ceasefire.
19:56That's not peace.
19:58That's a timeout.
19:59Timeout for the enemy to rearm, restock, resupply, get better positions, dig in further.
20:05That's just minus for Russia, plus for the west.
20:10There's no upside for Russia on this.
20:13And at this point, realistically, especially with the Russian people, nobody gives a damn what the west thinks.
20:17The Russian people want revenge, and they want blood, especially considering all the terrorist attacks,
20:24all the things that Kiev has been committing.
20:26Threats on the parade, that's another one.
20:31The Veal threats that, which are idiotic, past idiotic.
20:35But I think at this point, when you're dealing with a crackhead in power, you can just expect anything out of them.
20:42Because considering there's going to be 19 world leaders, maybe more,
20:45any attack on the parade is a declaration of war on multiple countries.
20:49But, you know, again, you can expect anything from a crackhead, especially a desperate one, like Zelensky, the Narka Green Goblin.
21:00So you get that effect.
21:04But the problem is, is the war isn't going to end.
21:06I mean, that's obvious enough.
21:08And yet, it becomes a good barrier in certain areas, because it's hard to cross.
21:12There's high ridges.
21:14Usually, the high ridges are actually on the east bank, just because of the way the river flows.
21:18But either way, I mean, coming down those barriers or going up those natural barriers across a very wide river is very difficult.
21:27It's very difficult to accomplish, especially when you're under fire.
21:30However, Sumi is already on the west side of the river.
21:36So Russia is already on the west side of the Dnieper, of the Dnieper that's in Ukraine, because the Dnieper goes up into Russia also.
21:43So it's already moving southwards towards Sumi.
21:45The logistics points are falling, and there's a lot of pressure on Sumi.
21:50What happens with Kharkov, that's a big question, because one of the reasons Russia was switching off the power in Kharkov, blasting it out, is for the people to leave.
21:59A very large portion of that population has left.
22:02That means there's less human shields, there's less civilians in the way.
22:06It makes taking the city much, much easier.
22:08And actually, you know, my opinion is there is not going to be a frontal assault on Kharkov.
22:16Kharkov's going to get surrounded, it's going to get starved.
22:18It's going to get sieged.
22:19So that the forces inside either surrender, or the people themselves revolt, or they'll have to bail out of the city.
22:27And that's the way it looks.
22:28Once Krasna Limon falls, once the pressure is on Kramatorsk and Slyvinsk, there's a straight shot to the south of Kharkov.
22:37Plus there's now movement north of Kharkov, in Kharkovsko province, and it's starting to form the siege, the surrounding.
22:45Which, by the way, it's now been, there's been commentary coming out that the Russians don't play fair, they won't attack us head on, they're encircling us, that's not fair.
22:54It's the same thing as if you remember in 23, with the great counteroffensive, the Russians weren't playing fair, they were shooting from the trees and the bushes, instead of standing out in the open and shooting.
23:03Yeah, I remember that.
23:05Whatever comes to you.
23:07Yes.
23:08Can I just ask a question?
23:09Because I don't know whether you know about it, but there's a rather interesting Ukrainian magazine, dissident Ukrainian magazine, Khrushstrana,
23:17which about two years ago actually said that if Ukraine loses Zaporozhye, which is a big industrial city,
23:27I mean, it's a city which where they, you know, they make the gas turbines, aircraft engines, motor vehicles,
23:36it's, you know, one of the big industrial centers of the former Soviet Union, just to say.
23:42They lose Zaporozhye, and they lose Dnepro, Dnepro-Petrovsk, which I believe is on the other bank, it's on the right bank, but perhaps you can explain that.
23:53It's on both, but the majority is on the West Bank.
23:56West Bank.
23:57But if it loses these two places, it's the end of Ukraine.
24:00Ukraine is not viable any longer, and that if they lose these two cities, the southern areas of the Black Sea coast, including Odessa, by the way, become untenable.
24:13Is that true?
24:14Undefendable.
24:15Is that true?
24:17Yes, absolutely.
24:19The majority of trade industrial production goes up and down the Dnepro.
24:25So Russia already holds the southern Dnepro.
24:28So once it takes Kherson, it'll hold fully the mouth of the Dnepro.
24:33It holds the northern Dnepro.
24:35So that portion that's in Ukraine that's under pressure, yeah, it'll, once those cities fall, and let's not forget Kharkov.
24:42Kharkov is an industrial city.
24:44It's the second city in Ukraine by size.
24:46Once all that falls, the question is, you know, the question also becomes, would Kiev vote to leave Ukraine?
24:54And here's the logic behind it.
24:55Kiev is an imperial city.
24:58Even though it's a poor country, it was big enough to support Kiev, and Kiev liked to live large.
25:04I mean, if you look at, if you ever traveled to any Ukrainian cities before the conflict started, most of them were relatively poor, especially the villages were just desolate.
25:13Kiev, that's where the money was.
25:15Now, what you're going to get is what you got with Vienna after the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
25:22You got an agrarian Austria, very poor, which wanted to join Germany in 1918, but in Versailles, nobody was going to reward Germany with Austria, for obvious reasons.
25:33You've got an imperial Vienna, and you've got a very poor country that needs to support imperial Vienna, and they couldn't support it.
25:41So Kiev is going to get a choice of either being the first city in a very poor agrarian backwards country and watch its life, quality of life collapse year after year, or be the third city in a very large, prosperous country.
25:55Now, that's going to be a very difficult choice for a lot of people.
25:59Do we want to be the really, really big fish in a really small puddle, or do we want to be the average fish in a very large ocean?
26:07And I think eventually most people will go, well, you know, life's better over there than what we've got.
26:12Yes.
26:13I think we're getting a sense of the strategy and where all this is going.
26:17Now, can I just ask two last questions?
26:21Firstly, I noticed that Patrushev, who was Putin's national security advisor, who is still a member of the Security Council of Russia, and who is now in charge, by the way, of the shipbuilding industry and of building up Russia's fleet, he has started talking about Odessa.
26:39He's talked about Odessa being a Russian city, that it is alien to Ukraine, to the system in Ukraine, and about the fact that the people of Odessa want to be back with Russia again.
26:54If all of these events that we're talking about, we don't know how long they're going to take, but if all of these things come together, will the Russians, if they reach Zaporozhye, move on towards Odessa?
27:07Is that something that becomes possible?
27:10I've heard it said that it's very difficult to advance on Odessa from Kherson city, because there's lots of rivers and things of this kind, and that it's actually easier to advance on Odessa from further north.
27:24Is this all true?
27:25And is that a possible Russian objective?
27:28And the second question I wanted to just quickly ask is, are we looking at a very long timescale for all of these events?
27:38Or is it perhaps the case that if Liman and Chasovya fall and Bakrovsk fall, and the defense lines collapse, things will start to move more quickly?
27:50Two quick last questions.
27:52Well, two big last questions, I should say, not quick.
27:54And they're right, moving directly from Kherson onto Odessa is very difficult, because you're moving in low country along the coastline, and you're being threatened from your flank.
28:06So the first thing that has to happen is Nikolaev has to be taken, which is also a Russian city.
28:10Nikolaev is a threat to the right flank if you're moving by the coastline.
28:16And more likely, any move on Odessa would also have an element of marine landings.
28:22Under fire, true, but that's something that's going to threaten the control of the city, opens up an additional front line.
28:30So the question is, what will the French do?
28:32Because the French are sitting not that far away.
28:34Of course, if the French cross, if they cross into Ukraine, they become legitimate targets, and they're going to get a very unwelcome surprise.
28:43It's still about 150 or so kilometers to Odessa.
28:47And that's a long way under fire from Iskandars and direct fire from Kanjals and anything else that's been launched, either from the fleet or from aviation out of Crimea, especially if you can't suppress that aviation.
29:01So that's going to be any thought of immunity is insane.
29:05I mean, it's absolutely pipe dream, wishful thinking.
29:09And in that pipe dream, that light at the end of the pipe is not safety.
29:13That's a locomotive.
29:14That's a very large armored locomotive barreling down on them.
29:18So Odessa, you know, something that's been going on for quite a while, too, in Odessa and Kiev is the de-Russianification of Odessa by immigration.
29:27A lot of people from the western Ukraine, from Galicia, which is that culture that now got imposed on the rest of Ukraine, have been given apartments, have been migrated into those cities to try to dissolve that Russian population and make it into a minority.
29:44And the Russian population are the ones that are being, first and foremost, grabbed off the streets to be made on the front line.
29:51So there's the Ukrainian powers are working on basically an extermination program for the Russian population, even the loyal Russian population.
30:00Anybody that's got their own last names gets to go die on the front line.
30:03They're not doing as much recruiting, not that the heavy-handed recruiting in Lvov or in Zakarpathia and those areas.
30:12Zakarpathia is a whole different cake, too, because you've got a large Hungarian population.
30:17Hungary's already said they're ready to move in if they started trying to do force recruitment like they did in 23 on the Hungarians there, who all hold Hungarian passports additionally.
30:27So you start getting into really difficult areas for Ukraine in general.
30:31So that's that.
30:35How long it'll go, it's hard to say.
30:38There's a lot of factors in play.
30:40Once the main lines of fortification are fully breached, obviously the run-up is going to be much easier.
30:47Russia's already in Sumi on the western side of the Dnieper.
30:52So it all depends, A, how much Russia is willing to suffer casualties for a fast charge, because the forces are there.
31:00They're being reserved.
31:02I know units have been, that do rotations on the front lines.
31:06That's something Ukrainians can't afford.
31:09Brigades and battalions, they'll do rotations, they'll do fighting for three, four months, half a year.
31:14They're pulled off to recover, rest and recover.
31:17And another battalion takes their place for the next half a year of fighting.
31:21Well, they're recruiting and they're recovering.
31:24So there's rotations, plus it's a level of skill that's being built up that's then spread out to the rest of the army.
31:33It's 600,000 men that are involved in Ukraine out of an army of 1.5 million and growing.
31:40So more than half the army is not directly involved in Ukraine at this time.
31:45Some of them have been rotated out and new units are rotated in to get bloodied.
31:48So they get the combat experience that they otherwise don't have.
31:52And the rest of them are waiting for NATO.
31:55A lot of the newest equipment that are going in, just last year, just as an example.
31:58Last year, Russia doubled its tank production.
32:01I'm talking brand new from zero scratch built tanks from 200 to 400.
32:06And it's going to go up even more.
32:07Ryan Mittal last year built eight tanks from scratch.
32:11I mean, granted, their capacity is going to grow.
32:14But you're looking at maybe 20, 30 tanks in all of NATO last year to 400 in Russia as a large way to grow.
32:22And Russia is not standing still.
32:24It's expanding its manufacturing base quite a bit.
32:27And a shell manufacturing base and et cetera, which is already pretty high.
32:31Plus North Korea.
32:34So already there's problems.
32:36There's obvious lack of problems.
32:38The only way that NATO can compose any kind of help to Ukraine in equipment is to start buying in large quantities of American equipment.
32:48Now, the U.S. has about two and a half thousand M1A1 tanks and about another two and a half thousand M1A1 tanks that are parked.
32:59The M1s are being upgraded to M1A1 minus.
33:04That is, they don't get the Chobain armor, which the U.S. stole from the British.
33:08They don't get the Chobain armor, but they do get the upgraded 120 millimeter smoothbore cannon versus the 105 rifle, which even in 1980 when it came out, it wasn't adequate to fight a T-72.
33:21It was already behind the times.
33:22So the M1A1 came out in 86 into mass production.
33:27It had the 120 millimeter main gun.
33:28So they will be getting that.
33:31And I think that's going to be, you know, Trump's going to win no matter what.
33:35His best case in this case is to leave Ukraine and continue being the arms dealer to the EU that's now fully involved in Ukraine.
33:44Because the EU's got a long way before they can up their production to do anything even close to Russia's level.
33:50I mean, they have to have fully militarized their economies.
33:54But the U.S. has these huge parking lots of tanks and Bradleys and Paladins and so on that it can sell.
34:04And it would prefer to sell.
34:04Giving it to Ukraine is just, you know, you don't get any money for that.
34:07You give them a present.
34:09And it's not coming back as anything but scrap metal.
34:12Give it to Europe, it's payment up front.
34:15So that's another way to control Europe is to suck the money out of them in this way, plus the fuel cost.
34:21So it all depends on what the level of support from Europe is, whether France or any of these other willing partners decide to actually really get involved or not.
34:33And the tolerance for casualties on the Russian side for a fast, hard attack.
34:37The units are there.
34:38There are two tank armies ready to go.
34:40They haven't been thrown in.
34:42The advantage on a tank attack, yes, the first days you're going to be, maybe the first week, you're going to be suffering very heavy casualties.
34:48But once you've run through those initial positions, the front lines, you've ripped it open, the casualties go down very, very quickly.
34:56It's the enemy that now is running.
34:58And as we know from history and we know now, the main casualties in any combat and conflict on a larger scale we're talking about is when an enemy breaks and starts to run.
35:09Because that's when they're getting hunted down and destroyed as they're running away.
35:14And once that happens, you know, anything is possible.
35:16So what Europe does when that happens or NATO does when it happens is also a big question.
35:21And I think that's been the biggest fear in Moscow is not to expand the conflict by moving too fast.
35:27But because there was still hope for some kind of a solution, diplomatic solution.
35:31But I think those hopes are now being basically evaporated out.
35:35So, you know, it's becoming obvious that there is not going to be any negotiated solution with Europe.
35:43And, you know, gentlemen, I just came back from Donetsk.
35:47I was up in Gorlovka.
35:48And just to understand what Gorlovka, 11 years.
35:51I mean, I did a video that was on RT, a report on a market.
35:56We were the only ones that got to that market on a Sunday, got hit by a 155 millimeter artillery round.
36:03Thank God it was hit on the edge.
36:05So there weren't that many people there.
36:06And it's become obvious, I think, to everybody in power that this is just how it's going to be.
36:10It's not something that you can negotiate away because, unfortunately, there's no real actors or true actors on the other side.
36:23Well, I mean, as far as we're acting in good faith.
36:26Actors are plenty of those actors and plenty of bad faiths.
36:31And, you know, we're not going to buy beads like the Indians did up in New York.
36:36So, you know, they're not going to give us shiny beads to calm us down and then start it up again.
36:42And anybody believing in Western friendship and so on, it's, you know, it's gone.
36:48That train's left the station.
36:49The station's burned down.
36:50It's not coming back.
36:53Stanislav, thank you very much for your thorough answers to my questions.
36:58We'll see what happens over the next few weeks.
37:00Absolutely.
37:01Always a pleasure.
37:02Thank you, Stanislav.
37:03One more time.
37:04Where can people find you?
37:05One more time.
37:06Okay, so we've got on YouTube, it's Mr. Slavic Man, all one word, with a K instead of a C.
37:13And I'm shadow banned, so I don't pop up in the list very often or at all.
37:19On Telegram, Stasodaya Abratna is the Russian one in English, written in English.
37:26And Stasodaya Abratna is the English language.
37:28So, and if anybody wants to get in contact with me directly, leave a comment and leave your contacts and I'll drop you a line.
37:39I read all the comments.
37:40All right.
37:40Those links are in the description box.
37:43Thank you, Stanislav.
37:47Take care.
37:47Thank you, Stanislav.
37:48Thank you, Stanislav.
37:48Thank you, Stanislav.
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37:51Thank you, Stanislav.
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37:52Thank you, Stanislav.
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37:53Thank you, Stanislav.
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37:54Thank you, Stanislav.
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37:56Thank you, Stanislav.
37:56Thank you, Stanislav.
37:57Thank you, Stanislav.