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Washington-based South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman explains why the U.S. intervened during the rising tensions between India and Pakistan. Initially maintaining a watchful stance, Vice President Vance and President Trump eventually pushed for a ceasefire due to two major concerns: rapid military escalation and fears around nuclear security. Kugelman noted that the U.S. was alarmed by India’s targeting of a strategic air base near nuclear sites in Rawalpindi. These developments prompted a rare shift from passive observation to active diplomatic pressure.

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00:00The U.S. has frequently intervened in India-Pakistan military crises, mainly because of concerns about nuclear risks.
00:07And the reason why I think the U.S. intervened, and I think this is really the major reason, is the nuclear issue.
00:13The Indians targeting a particular air base in Raupindi, which is known to be near nuclear sites.
00:20We had seen a consistent position from the U.S. government calling for de-escalation.
00:25So there definitely had not been any type of active mediation early on.
00:30And we had seen a consistent position from the U.S. government calling for de-escalation.
00:35So there definitely had not been any type of active mediation early on in the crisis.
00:40But the U.S. position from the start had been calling for de-escalation, even though, indeed, Vice President Vance and President Trump had signaled that the U.S. was only going to do so much.
00:51However, I would argue that there are two reasons why we saw the U.S. jump in in the way it did to push for a ceasefire.
01:00The first reason is escalation dynamics.
01:03This was a crisis that escalated very quickly.
01:06You had significant levels of military action that were used by both sides.
01:12The initial Indian airstrikes in Pakistan and retaliation for the terrorist attack in Kashmir were of a greater scale than we've seen in Pakistan for many years.
01:22And then Pakistan's response and then the fact that both countries were sending drones and missiles into each other's countries and targeting military sites.
01:30This, I think, was quite alarming for the U.S. government just because this was a level of hostilities that had not been seen for many years.
01:38The second reason why I think the U.S. intervened, and I think this is really the major reason, is the nuclear issue.
01:45My sense is that the U.S. government was very concerned when you had the Indians targeting a particular air base in Rawalpindi,
01:57which is known to be near nuclear sites, and also the fact that Pakistan's own signaling,
02:04in terms of convening certain types of meetings or plans to convene certain types of meetings,
02:11suggested the possibility that they were prepared to talk about the risk of nuclear contingencies.
02:17So I think that this is actually a consistent pattern in U.S. policy when it comes to India-Pakistan crises.
02:25If you look at the history, the U.S. has frequently intervened in India-Pakistan military crises,
02:31mainly because of concerns about nuclear risks.
02:34And that I think was the case in Cargill.
02:36It was the case in 2001, 2002.
02:38And according to Mike Pompeo in his memoir, it was also the case in 2019.
02:44Pompeo, of course, was the Secretary of State during that crisis.
02:47So I think at the end of the day, it was a sudden concern on the part of the U.S.
02:51that the nuclear escalation risks in this crisis were real.
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