The Monty Hall Problem - Olasılık Yüzdesi

The Monty Hall Problem gets its name from the TV game show, “Let’s Make A Deal,” hosted by Monty Hall1. The scenario is such: you are given the opportunity to select one closed door of three, behind one of which there is a prize. The other two doors hide “goats” (or some other such “non–prize”), or nothing at all. Once you have made your selection, Monty Hall will open one of the remaining doors, revealing that it does not contain the prize2. He then asks you if you would like to switch your selection to the other unopened door, or stay with your original choice. Here is the problem: Does it matter if you switch?
Before I continue, you may wish to attempt to solve this problem by yourself. You’ve a good chance to do so, because you now know not to trust your instincts in this and that you should consider the problem very carefully. Try it